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> April 15-16, 2018 MidAtl/NE Storm, Reality - OBSERVATIONS
MaineJay
post Apr 15 2018, 06:16 AM
Post #41




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Back to IP

26.8
DP down to 15.2

Light IP


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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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MaineJay
post Apr 15 2018, 07:48 AM
Post #42




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Transitioned to light snow.

25.9
DP 19.4


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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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geeter1
post Apr 15 2018, 08:16 AM
Post #43




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Nothing showing up on radar, but we have drizzle and mist - 37F

Sure isn't like yesterday.......
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MD Blue Ridge
post Apr 15 2018, 08:18 AM
Post #44




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Terribly dense fog. 42F.

A slight difference from yesterday. Nws like a couple inches of rain and a touch of snow for us here. We shall see.



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Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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Undertakerson
post Apr 15 2018, 08:20 AM
Post #45




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Getting some wicked easterly gusts with these showers. CTP mentions the "channeling" that can happen in the ridge and valley regions

QUOTE
the moist and gusty
easterly flow off the Atlantic helps to blossom some drizzle
over the Lower Susq Valley around daybreak, then some rain
showers and drizzle during the late morning and afternoon hours
across the Central Mtns and Susquehanna Valley as the nose of an
anomalous, southerly LLJ advances north across the Blue Ridge
Mountains of VA and Shenandoah Valley, and the 925 mb easterly
flow increase from around 1 sigma to 3 sigma this afternoon
and
evening across Central and Eastern PA.

QUOTE
One last concern is that as the nose of the southerly and
highly anomalous LLJ intersects the easterly LLJ late today
and the first half of tonight, it helps to greatly enhance the
channeling of the easterly wind invof KIPT
(along with some
other narrow east-west oriented Valleys)
. Increased winds to
sustained 20-25 mph with gusts of 35-40 kts in the KIPT area
(quite an unusual direction for strong winds and borderline Wind
Advisory criteria).


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rtcemc
post Apr 15 2018, 11:25 AM
Post #46




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This is so pathetic. This pattern is so bad it is almost like we have to get punished for 2 warm days. Record high of 87 yesterday, and now 43 with drizzle, and it feels colder. Forecast all week looks horrible. Windy every day with below normal temps. Can't even watch golf today while is snows, and they had to push up the golf tournament cuz of the bad weather coming through. Golf Channel morons didn't push up the coverage, so the leader is now through 12 holes already. Of course if Tiger was playing they would have covered in much earlier, showing him walking to every shot, in addition to showing every shot. Yea, I have a major 'tude blink.gif
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Solstice
post Apr 15 2018, 12:03 PM
Post #47




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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Apr 15 2018, 12:25 PM) *
This is so pathetic. This pattern is so bad it is almost like we have to get punished for 2 warm days.


Punished?! I'd rather have rain every two days to wash out all the pollen. wink.gif.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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stretchct
post Apr 15 2018, 01:48 PM
Post #48




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Looks like 41 will be the high today. Raw, breezy and closing in on windy even here in the hollow.

41 is also the normal high for Feb 20. Ironically, that day has been the warmest so far this year at DXR with 77 as a high and 65 as the average temp.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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STEVE392
post Apr 15 2018, 02:02 PM
Post #49




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a few flurries here in nnj aroud 1300hrs. So refreshing feeling compared to the inferno on friday lol
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bingobobbo
post Apr 15 2018, 02:05 PM
Post #50




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The Greater Binghamton Overcast is here--yesterday was seasonable but felt like October instead of April because of the chillier air. Today is about average for late February or early December. The clouds have a scowling late-autumn look to them. My only consolation is that there is a new moon tonight, so astronomically we aren't missing much.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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Ryan Duff
post Apr 15 2018, 02:05 PM
Post #51




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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Apr 15 2018, 12:25 PM) *
This is so pathetic. This pattern is so bad it is almost like we have to get punished for 2 warm days. Record high of 87 yesterday, and now 43 with drizzle, and it feels colder. Forecast all week looks horrible. Windy every day with below normal temps. Can't even watch golf today while is snows, and they had to push up the golf tournament cuz of the bad weather coming through. Golf Channel morons didn't push up the coverage, so the leader is now through 12 holes already. Of course if Tiger was playing they would have covered in much earlier, showing him walking to every shot, in addition to showing every shot. Yea, I have a major 'tude blink.gif


82F yesterday at 5pm down to 42F this morning by 7am. Was out around 8am as it started to drizzle and I swore I saw a flake or two mixed in. Ridiculous!


--------------------
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"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

Current Elevation: 30' ASL
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rtcemc
post Apr 15 2018, 03:03 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Apr 15 2018, 03:05 PM) *
82F yesterday at 5pm down to 42F this morning by 7am. Was out around 8am as it started to drizzle and I swore I saw a flake or two mixed in. Ridiculous!

Yep, brutal bud. Enough of this! That stuff is moving in real slow, but man when it gets here.
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stxprowl
post Apr 15 2018, 03:34 PM
Post #53




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Mt Holly Briefing #2 https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

Simulated radar http://hp6.wright-weather.com/eastnmm.shtml
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PlanetMaster
post Apr 15 2018, 03:39 PM
Post #54




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Front heading back North as warm front, 60's in SWPA. Temps will jump overnight as the heavy rain moves in with some nasty winds.



Just a nasty cold and raw day, 41F. 6 MLB games postponed from this storm, several the entire weekend, most ever in one weekend.

This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: Apr 15 2018, 03:54 PM


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MaineJay
post Apr 15 2018, 04:10 PM
Post #55




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Made it up to 28.8 not a lot of precip so far, but there will be slippery spots out there.


GYX

QUOTE
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Mid level warm front continues to wash out along and N of the
LEB to PWM line. Dry air is still lurking just to the NE of the
forecast area over The County and Downeast ME...so whatever
precip is falling is very light. To the S of the front there is
a bit of a break in precip...with the except of far Srn NH where
some ocean effect precip continues to fall. With H9 temps
forecast to hold around -8 to -10 C...that light ocean effect
precip may continue thru the evening in the Ely flow.

The next batch of precip to worry about is taking shape across
the Chesapeake at this writing. It will continue to move N and
expand in area. Surface temps are not expected to move much this
evening...meaning the majority...if not all...of the forecast
area will be below freezing. Another round of mixed precip is
expected...and for that reason I have just extended all winter
wx advisories into Mon...and expanded Ewd into central and
Midcoast ME. Forecast soundings still show very deep low level
cold...so I do expect sleet to be the predominant ptype. That
being said...there is plenty of cold air in place and high
pressure is expected to remain in a very favorable position for
continued cold air damming. In the overnight period any freezing
rain that falls should have no problem accumulating
.

In the mid levels behind the front ESE winds will ramp up
tonight. With the strong inversion lowering towards ridge top
level...a favorable set up will be in place for downslope wind
gusts. The Wrn slopes of the higher terrain will see gusts of 40
to 50 mph...with localized higher gusts in the steeper terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Early Mon the area of precip from the Mid Atlantic will be
lifting thru the forecast area. Parts of the winter wx
advisories may be able to drop as precip moves out and temps
edge up above freezing. I have gone colder than the coldest
model guidance for temps...and even that may be too warm given
the propensity for guidance to rush the inversion mixing out.

Towards midday the core of the LLJ and strongest forcing for
ascent will arrive. PWAT values in excess of 2 standard
deviations above normal will support heavy precip...mainly in
the form of rain as strengthening SE winds slowly warm the
boundary layer. Widespread QPF of 1.5 to 2 inches is
expected...and for flooding concerns see the hydrology section
below.

Ahead of the cold front itself the core of the LLJ will lift
across the area. Near the coast...especially N of PWM...SE gusts
approaching 50 mph are possible. ECMWF EPS have very high
probabilities for 40 kt gusts...and given that added confidence
another wind advisory has been issued for this threat...in
addition to the downslope winds across Wrn NH tonight into Mon.
The coastal wind gusts will continue into late Mon evening before
the LLJ moves NEwd.


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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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longislander
post Apr 15 2018, 04:14 PM
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Par for the course - there is no spring on Long Island anymore. Just a winter that hangs on and on, then one weekend in May you need air conditioning.
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PlanetMaster
post Apr 15 2018, 04:26 PM
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QUOTE(longislander @ Apr 15 2018, 05:14 PM) *
Par for the course - there is no spring on Long Island anymore. Just a winter that hangs on and on, then one weekend in May you need air conditioning.

I'll be heading to Florida Wednesday looking at houses, not a fan of the heat all year round but between the taxes and weather LI is no longer a nice place to live.

Classic overrunning situation developing at the coast as the warm air fights the CAD up and over the top.


This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: Apr 15 2018, 04:31 PM


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Solstice
post Apr 15 2018, 04:42 PM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Apr 15 2018, 05:26 PM) *
I'll be heading to Florida Wednesday looking at houses


Another one bites the dust.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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PlanetMaster
post Apr 15 2018, 05:47 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Apr 15 2018, 05:42 PM) *
Another one bites the dust.

Yeah well its not a given but a week off from the madness and awful weather should bring me to my senses. I lived in FT Lauderdale for almost year in 2008 and hated living in an air conditioner year round. Also lived in North Carolina for about 6 months and always returned North to NY, just a city boy at heart. Like I said not too keen on living there but a majority of my business and investors are centered down there so its a consideration. Probably a better chance of just opening an office down there and staying in NY. Even considering somewhere in PA too tongue.gif

Looks like some mixing, sleet or ZR over northern Conn and HV, any reports?



This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: Apr 15 2018, 05:57 PM


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MD Blue Ridge
post Apr 15 2018, 06:15 PM
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37F and still terribly dense fog. Fog season done year round in the hills. Looks like the "the show" is an hour or two out.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Apr 15 2018, 06:16 PM


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