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> April 12-18 Fire Threat, "Historic" risk across OK, TX, AZ, NM
PGM
post Apr 12 2018, 08:49 AM
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I don't believe a fire thread has ever been posted here before. Figured I might as well start one as OUN is going guns blazing with a "historic" risk tomorrow.

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Temperatures should peak near 100* later today across the OK/TX panhandle.

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More significant conditions are forecast tomorrow across central OK with a passing cold front and strong winds late day.... this could quickly spread existing fires.

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Red flag warnings are currently blanketing much of the Southwest...

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Here are the corresponding SPC outlooks. Extreme risks for both day 1&2.


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This post has been edited by PGM: Apr 17 2018, 02:31 PM


--------------------
Cold season 2017-18 stats
First/last freeze (below 0*C): November 8th – April 21st
Days entirely below freezing: 46
Coldest temperature: -19.7*C on January 7th
First/last flakes: October 31st – April 19th
Biggest snowfall: 33cm on December 12th
Season total: 230.5cm
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2018, 09:48 AM
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Posts: 22,075
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Wow, nice catch with the historic wording.

I don't remember the last time there was back-to-back extreme fire risk days. Also, I wonder if this is Accuweather's first fire weather thread laugh.gif

Corresponding discussion


QUOTE
FIRE WEATHER...
Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across portions of
the area through Friday evening.

To clarify, the "historical" description in our graphics is
driven by significant RFTI values from very strong winds and very
low RH. It means that RH and/or wind are exceeding anything in a
10-year database. It`s important to know this historical category
is, 1.) confined to a relatively small area of southwest Oklahoma
and western north Texas and does not accurately describe the
scenario further north and east, closer to OKC metro
, 2.) is a
model forecast which could have some error, 3.) is quite sensitive
to small changes in RH and wind which drive RFTI values, thus
some oscillation between categories from forecast to forecast
could occur.

We will continue the current configuration of the Red Flag Warning
for today. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may
occur further east, but transitioning fuels due to spring greenup
and hence lower ERC-G values, along with increased moisture as
southerly low level flow continues limit the concern there and
precludes eastward expansion of the Red Flag Warning at this
time. There should be a fairly sharp delineation between elevated
to near-critical conditions east of the dryline and potentially
high-end critical conditions to its west. A more significant fire
setup will exist on the west side of low-level thermal ridge which
will be oriented roughly along the western Oklahoma border with
Texas.

For Friday, the most classic trough position and geometry for a
southern Great Plains wildfire outbreak will not occur. However,
important elements of some of the more active significant fire
outbreaks will be in play. A complex and dynamic assortment of
boundaries, air masses, and fuel regimes will exist Friday across
the area and so the fire threat will evolve throughout the day. By
early Friday morning, RH values across northwest Oklahoma may
already be below 30 percent. This poor RH recovery tonight into
early Friday morning raises concern for any ongoing fires,
especially with an imminent wind shift from advancing polar front.
Frontal timing is not yet certain with variability as much as 3
hours in hi-res guidance. Nevertheless, by early afternoon a good
portion of northwest Oklahoma will see improving conditions with
slightly weaker winds, albeit still strong from the northwest, and
cooler, more moist, and potentially cloudy conditions limiting
the fire threat.

Meanwhile, within a wedge shaped area from our western north
Texas counties and southwest Oklahoma northeastward to the Kansas
border in north-central Oklahoma, and extending eastward to the
Pacific front/dryline, strong southwesterly winds and
downsloped/dry warm air will be in place resulting in very high
RFTI values as high as 8. The eastern extent of the more
significant threat area will probably be heavily influenced by
fuels. Spring greenup has resulted in a fairly significant
gradient of ERC values roughly along and west of Highway 81, and
to the west of there is where we chose to upgrade to a Red Flag
Warning. This is where confidence in high end fire threat is
greatest, with a more tempered threat in the watch area to the
north and east.

West-southwesterly downslope winds behind the Pacific front will
still favor warm temperatures, albeit not as hot as the previous
day. This will support deep mixing into mid-level speed max and
significant momentum transfer. This is occuring on the favorable
windward side of low-level thermal ridge which is expected to be
moving from central Oklahoma into eastern Oklahoma by mid
afternoon. Where the mid-level wind max intersects this thermal
ridge has historically proven to be where the greatest
concentration of significant fires are. Later forecasts will
better refine these key features and further expansion of the Red
Flag Warning may be needed.

Post-frontal northwesterly winds and a dry air mass may lead to
elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions Saturday,
particularly over the southwest 1/4th of the area. The main
limiting factor will be cooler temperatures (mid 50s to low 60s).
But, fuels across this area remain quite dry and volatile, so at
least some initial attack if not larger fire risk will be present.


Red flag warning for far southern Ohio... that's pretty rare.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Fire/Rescue
post Apr 12 2018, 02:40 PM
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Yea over in these parts we do get such advisories from time to time, as currently in place.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2018, 03:26 PM
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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Red flag warning now cool.gif

78 degrees, 19% humidity, 33 MPH max gust.

I think the high overachieved by 3 degrees.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2018, 04:54 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 22,075
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Sweet to watch a loop of GOES16. You can watch as 3 separate wildfires start in western OK



http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms...&colorbars=


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2018, 05:06 PM
Post #6




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Posts: 22,075
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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 12 2018, 05:54 PM) *
Sweet to watch a loop of GOES16. You can watch as 3 separate wildfires start in western OK



http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms...&colorbars=

Forgot you could go in even further



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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PGM
post Apr 12 2018, 07:07 PM
Post #7




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Posts: 1,036
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From: Northdale, London, ON
Member No.: 29,229





Saw this on Facebook but not sure where it is from (but I believe it is authentic from today). Multiple fires ongoing in western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle.


Attached Image


--------------------
Cold season 2017-18 stats
First/last freeze (below 0*C): November 8th – April 21st
Days entirely below freezing: 46
Coldest temperature: -19.7*C on January 7th
First/last flakes: October 31st – April 19th
Biggest snowfall: 33cm on December 12th
Season total: 230.5cm
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2018, 08:37 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,075
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(PGM @ Apr 12 2018, 08:07 PM) *
Saw this on Facebook but not sure where it is from (but I believe it is authentic from today). Multiple fires ongoing in western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle.


Attached Image

That's insane... that's really zoomed in I don't know how you do that.

Smoke is going up 20,000 feet above ground



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2018, 08:38 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,075
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 12 2018, 09:37 PM) *
That's insane... that's really zoomed in I don't know how you do that.

Smoke is going up 20,000 feet above ground


Oh it's real!!! Go down to RGB products, click on "natural color".

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms...&colorbars=


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2018, 08:44 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,075
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Holy...

https://www.facebook.com/NEWS9/videos/vb.25...e=2&theater


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Fire/Rescue
post Apr 12 2018, 09:37 PM
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From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 12 2018, 09:37 PM) *
That's insane... that's really zoomed in I don't know how you do that.

Smoke is going up 20,000 feet above ground


Impressive pictures!!!!
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stxprowl
post Apr 12 2018, 11:18 PM
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Member No.: 20,184





Wow!
https://t.co/x6TWwefBwS?ssr=true

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PGM
post Apr 13 2018, 06:36 AM
Post #13




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From: Northdale, London, ON
Member No.: 29,229





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 12 2018, 09:38 PM) *
Oh it's real!!! Go down to RGB products, click on "natural color".

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms...&colorbars=


Nice!


--------------------
Cold season 2017-18 stats
First/last freeze (below 0*C): November 8th – April 21st
Days entirely below freezing: 46
Coldest temperature: -19.7*C on January 7th
First/last flakes: October 31st – April 19th
Biggest snowfall: 33cm on December 12th
Season total: 230.5cm
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Fire/Rescue
post Apr 13 2018, 06:50 AM
Post #14




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From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





My area here in the Mid-Atl is again covered by the "enhanced wild fire danger" for today
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The Day After To...
post Apr 13 2018, 09:49 AM
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From: Wappinger Falls, NY
Member No.: 22,541





That reporter was lucky...sitting dead in the sights of the flaming front probably isn't the smartest idea in the world.


--------------------
"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


FF/EMT

WX HOBBYIST

Rest Easy, FF Jules EOW 12.18.2017
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PGM
post Apr 13 2018, 12:22 PM
Post #16




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Posts: 1,036
Joined: 9-February 14
From: Northdale, London, ON
Member No.: 29,229





First fire of the day south of Seiling OK, likely from remnants of yesterday's fire in the same area.


--------------------
Cold season 2017-18 stats
First/last freeze (below 0*C): November 8th – April 21st
Days entirely below freezing: 46
Coldest temperature: -19.7*C on January 7th
First/last flakes: October 31st – April 19th
Biggest snowfall: 33cm on December 12th
Season total: 230.5cm
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Undertakerson
post Apr 13 2018, 12:43 PM
Post #17




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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Apr 13 2018, 07:50 AM) *
My area here in the Mid-Atl is again covered by the "enhanced wild fire danger" for today

Indeed, a widespread threat - not as severe or historic as the TX/NM/OK region, but still

QUOTE
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
403 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-041-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-140815-
Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-
Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
403 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Gusty winds combined with low relative humidity and fuel moisture
may lead to an increased risk for the spread of wildfires Friday
afternoon.


And to think that we've had decent QPF recently. I can't imagine how the southern tier folks deal with such things.

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--------------------
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stxprowl
post Apr 13 2018, 01:31 PM
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Marty Logan live stream in Oklahoma. https://www.facebook.com/MartyLoganNews9/vi...24582327815580/

Val Castor live stream in Oklahoma.
https://www.facebook.com/ValCastorNews9/vid...78456728911231/

Val is storm chasing. Marty I’m not sure, he’s just sitting at a gas station.

This post has been edited by stxprowl: Apr 13 2018, 01:37 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 16 2018, 10:12 AM
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Very strong wording coming from SPC
Attached thumbnail(s)
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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PGM
post Apr 17 2018, 02:29 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,036
Joined: 9-February 14
From: Northdale, London, ON
Member No.: 29,229





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 16 2018, 11:12 AM) *
Very strong wording coming from SPC


Another historic threat today

Attached Image


--------------------
Cold season 2017-18 stats
First/last freeze (below 0*C): November 8th – April 21st
Days entirely below freezing: 46
Coldest temperature: -19.7*C on January 7th
First/last flakes: October 31st – April 19th
Biggest snowfall: 33cm on December 12th
Season total: 230.5cm
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