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> Long Range Summer 2018 Outlooks and Discussions, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends, excitement, and mor
ILStormwatcher
post Feb 28 2018, 11:54 AM
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With February now closed/closing and Meteorological Spring upon us its time to look ahead to Summer in the US. Will it be a scorcher with sizzling drought, or will we see another very active hurricane season and or late season severe weather outbreaks. How many times will St. Louis hit 100 degrees or better. Will we see lots of 600 DM+ 500MB ridges? Let's discuss this and more for what's ahead for June. July, and August.

First impressions are for a drought to set up or re assert itself over the western Ohio Valley into the Missouri River Valley (especially south/central) with a wet and mild northeast and a very hot and dry west especially early before monsoon kicks in and the ridge of death shifts east into the plains/Mississippi River Valley. Tropics could get going early especially in the Gulf and Caribbean before shifting more into the middle of the Atlantic as the warmer anomalies shift north and the last traces of La Nina fade into Neutral/ENSO. Expect a couple of strikes mainly in the Gulf and perhaps in August for the east coast though if the ridge from the west shifts east enough that might protect the eastern seaboard, likewise a stronger Bermuda High could shift the track into the Gulf and Florida instead.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 1 2018, 06:14 PM
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Unfortunately for the southern Plains, there's no sign that their drought will change. Historically, or at least over the past 18 years, never has a drought reached this intensity in late winter/early spring and didn't intensify through summer.

Here's the drought time series for the "south", which is mostly what we'd call the southern Plains. That includes Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee.


As you can see, there have been a decent amount of short-lived droughts of this intensity. A lot of them started in the late summer/fall/early winter period. The determining factor for the longevity/intensity of the event was whether or not they could get drought relief in the winter/early spring.

There were 2 events that started when they couldn't get that drought relief. Those events were 2005-10 and 2010-15.

The 2005 drought started in the summer, got better in the fall (must've gotten lucky with a rogue storm system), then got much worse in the winter. Feedback effects kept it going for 4 years.

The 2010 drought started in the late summer when the Nina was just starting, then got much worse in the fall and winter. The fact that the Nina was at least moderate strength for 2 years helped with that.

The 2017-18 drought started in late fall and got worse over the winter. If history is a clue, there's not much hope for drought relief in the next few months before the annual subtropical high takes over.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 1 2018, 06:18 PM


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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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jdrenken
post Mar 1 2018, 06:40 PM
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Plenty of talk in social media about 2012 being an analog.


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ILStormwatcher
post Mar 18 2018, 01:58 PM
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RRWT charts shows St. Louis having a hotter and drier then heck Summer with multiple 100+ degree days and lows in the 80s. Precip chances struggle to go above 50% throughout the Summer months.
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NorEaster07
post Mar 18 2018, 02:52 PM
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2012. June, July, August and 3mth departure

https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps

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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 11 2018, 02:53 PM
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New JAMSTEC for summer sheds some optimism/hope for this summer. What impressed me the most is how it's apparently picked up on the feedback loop from the southern Plains drought.





--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 11 2018, 03:00 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 11 2018, 03:53 PM) *
New JAMSTEC for summer sheds some optimism/hope for this summer. What impressed me the most is how it's apparently picked up on the feedback loop from the southern Plains drought.





Oh man I hope not cause that sounds like NW flow throughout the summer across the area if a ridge builds into that region and as strong. I mean it would be cool cause we have more storm activity then which Im all for!


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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 11 2018, 03:14 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 11 2018, 04:00 PM) *
Oh man I hope not cause that sounds like NW flow throughout the summer across the area if a ridge builds into that region and as strong. I mean it would be cool cause we have more storm activity then which Im all for!

Central ridge with NW flow aloft through the Great Lakes/OV is what dreams are made of in Ohio. The problem is having it verify the right way. I don't doubt the central ridge will exist because it has been existing for a long time now, but I'm afraid of being put on the wrong side of northwesterly flow.

The thought of the Plains' drought enhancing EMLs and enhanced moisture via evapotranspiration from the wet winter/spring in the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys has me hopeful. Like I said, hopefully we wouldn't be put on the wrong side of the NW flow.


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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 11 2018, 04:52 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 11 2018, 04:14 PM) *
Central ridge with NW flow aloft through the Great Lakes/OV is what dreams are made of in Ohio. The problem is having it verify the right way. I don't doubt the central ridge will exist because it has been existing for a long time now, but I'm afraid of being put on the wrong side of northwesterly flow.

The thought of the Plains' drought enhancing EMLs and enhanced moisture via evapotranspiration from the wet winter/spring in the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys has me hopeful. Like I said, hopefully we wouldn't be put on the wrong side of the NW flow.


Ha yea you put on the wrong side puts my area in a better position but you being in the perfect spot makes for a dreary poop of a summer at times. But more hopeful on getting more sunny days than rainy to start into MAY we are somewhat changing that now across the area.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 11 2018, 05:45 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 11 2018, 05:52 PM) *
Ha yea you put on the wrong side puts my area in a better position but you being in the perfect spot makes for a dreary poop of a summer at times. But more hopeful on getting more sunny days than rainy to start into MAY we are somewhat changing that now across the area.

Ah, it took me a minute to understand what you meant here. When I said wrong side of the flow, I meant being on the cold side... not the warm side (i.e., in the ring of fire).

Given the way the weather has been... with troughs and backdoor cold fronts getting stuck in the Northeast... that's why I'm worried about getting stuck on the cold side of the flow than the warm side.

March, for example, had this. Nice southern ridge but definitely would be stuck on the cold side of the flow. Thankfully this happened in early spring and not a summer month because that would suck. Given the seasonal poleward shift of the jet stream, the jet stream would probably be more favorably placed rather than in this example though.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 11 2018, 09:00 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 11 2018, 06:45 PM) *
Ah, it took me a minute to understand what you meant here. When I said wrong side of the flow, I meant being on the cold side... not the warm side (i.e., in the ring of fire).

Given the way the weather has been... with troughs and backdoor cold fronts getting stuck in the Northeast... that's why I'm worried about getting stuck on the cold side of the flow than the warm side.

March, for example, had this. Nice southern ridge but definitely would be stuck on the cold side of the flow. Thankfully this happened in early spring and not a summer month because that would suck. Given the seasonal poleward shift of the jet stream, the jet stream would probably be more favorably placed rather than in this example though.



Ah yea looking back seems kind of confusing. What I had meant was either you end up in the sweet spot just near the boundary (but on the warm side) and puts us in the bleh weather or you guys end up roasting and we get into the nice flow with the boundary. I have only seen the latter a handful of times over the years so more likely then not your area benefits from this then we do. Every once in awhile we get a nice MCS that manages to hold together and get us good but usually more than not we get convective from synoptic systems swinging in.

Sometimes though when the Bermuda high comes in we can get the SE pattern of pop storms usually because the front or low-level trough gets hung up on the western side of the ridge and pushes back into the east apps area.

Summer cant wait to get outside but that humidity just should never show.


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alczervik
post Apr 12 2018, 08:00 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 11 2018, 06:45 PM) *
Ah, it took me a minute to understand what you meant here. When I said wrong side of the flow, I meant being on the cold side... not the warm side (i.e., in the ring of fire).

Given the way the weather has been... with troughs and backdoor cold fronts getting stuck in the Northeast... that's why I'm worried about getting stuck on the cold side of the flow than the warm side.

March, for example, had this. Nice southern ridge but definitely would be stuck on the cold side of the flow. Thankfully this happened in early spring and not a summer month because that would suck. Given the seasonal poleward shift of the jet stream, the jet stream would probably be more favorably placed rather than in this example though.




Might as well keep this map rolling throughout the next 3-4 months. With the current pattern, it seems pretty stable as in that it is not moving. Since March we have been stuck in this and no one sees anything that is going to stop it. I said 2014 repeat for Midwest/GL and I am sticking to it.
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alczervik
post Apr 12 2018, 10:05 AM
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QUOTE(CincyBlizzard @ Apr 12 2018, 09:04 AM) *
You sound like a fool. Where's your evidence.


Evidence: How many days has the East been above normal since March? Not Many. Look at the models that these guys post and it seems to have settled in on where the high and low pressure systems are most stable.

In the current setup, it favors cooler weather. I would guess that some huge shift would have to occur to change the current setup. Nothing seems to be in the works yet. CPC shows this in the 6-10 and 8-14 day temp anomalies.

NAO relatively neutral since March.

In Cliche's Post he mentions the drought in the southern plains and the effects on the atmosphere. Do you not think that it works both ways? Abundance of cold/precipitation will have an effect later.

If we expand on Cliche's thought of central ridge, that would mean some location, most likely GL or Northeast would be on the receiving end of a persistent NW flow. That generally mean cooler than normal weather. Refer to Summer 2009 or summer 2014 as evidence.




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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2018, 12:22 PM
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QUOTE(alczervik @ Apr 12 2018, 11:05 AM) *
Evidence: How many days has the East been above normal since March? Not Many. Look at the models that these guys post and it seems to have settled in on where the high and low pressure systems are most stable.

In the current setup, it favors cooler weather. I would guess that some huge shift would have to occur to change the current setup. Nothing seems to be in the works yet. CPC shows this in the 6-10 and 8-14 day temp anomalies.

Seasonal persistence forecasting. That's literally what you're doing here.

QUOTE(alczervik @ Apr 12 2018, 11:05 AM) *
In Cliche's Post he mentions the drought in the southern plains and the effects on the atmosphere. Do you not think that it works both ways? Abundance of cold/precipitation will have an effect later.

If we expand on Cliche's thought of central ridge, that would mean some location, most likely GL or Northeast would be on the receiving end of a persistent NW flow. That generally mean cooler than normal weather. Refer to Summer 2009 or summer 2014 as evidence.


"I would guess that some huge shift would have to occur to change the current setup. Nothing seems to be in the works yet."

Let's just completely neglect the currently changing ENSO setup. It's not like we're moving from a low-end moderate Nina to a neutral ENSO by summer. That couldn't possibly effect the pattern. rolleyes.gif

Excessive rainfall/wet soil can certainly have the same effect as a drought. However, air temperature doesn't have a pattern memory like soil does. Cold air likes to stick around even after a trough departs and heights build, but that's more due to the physics of cold air than feedback loops.

Don't forget what happened in 2011. The wettest spring on record for the mid-Mississippi valley and Ohio valley was followed by an extremely hot and humid summer. The central ridge was fired up by the ongoing moderate Nina and the historic southern Plains drought.The wet soil in the OV/mid-MS valley from the spring was turned into moisture via evapotranspiration and fueled many 80+ degree dew point days.




Point being... the wet soil will add moisture to the atmosphere, which lowers the ability for the atmosphere to warm up but it makes it feel more humid. If the primary forcing forces a central ridge ("heat dome"), then you're going to get unseasonably warm weather plus the extra moisture. On the other hand, if the primary forcing forces a trough over the region, then you're going to get cool temps that's enhanced by the extra moisture.

With ENSO changing phases as we speak, the pattern is going to change with it. If ENSO was going to stay the same for the next 3 months, then yeah, there's not that much hope. But that's definitely not the case and it's ridiculous to suggest the weakening ENSO isn't going to change the pattern like you knowingly/unknowingly suggested.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 12 2018, 12:40 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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alczervik
post Apr 12 2018, 01:15 PM
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You mention ENSO impacts on overall pattern but never say what they are?

ENSO effects are not really significant in the Summer months for CONUS.

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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2018, 01:44 PM
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QUOTE(alczervik @ Apr 12 2018, 02:15 PM) *
You mention ENSO impacts on overall pattern but never say what they are?

ENSO effects are not really significant in the Summer months for CONUS.

ENSO effects are not as significant in the summer. Correct. So,

1) We're moving from a moderate Nina, which pretty significantly impacts the pattern, to a neutral ENSO, which is the least impactful ENSO state. That will cause the currently dominant pattern to change over time.

2) We're moving from the months where ENSO has a more significant impact on the pattern (cold season) to the months where it has a lesser impact (warm season). That will also cause the dominant pattern to change over time.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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alczervik
post Apr 12 2018, 02:05 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 11 2018, 04:14 PM) *
Central ridge with NW flow aloft through the Great Lakes/OV is what dreams are made of in Ohio. The problem is having it verify the right way. I don't doubt the central ridge will exist because it has been existing for a long time now, but I'm afraid of being put on the wrong side of northwesterly flow.

The thought of the Plains' drought enhancing EMLs and enhanced moisture via evapotranspiration from the wet winter/spring in the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys has me hopeful. Like I said, hopefully we wouldn't be put on the wrong side of the NW flow.


Both of the items in bold imply colder than normal conditions.

Simple logic: If the main source of air that is impacting your climate is cold, more than likely you will experience the same with possibly some modification.

Just like when the flow is from the gulf, there is a sizable uptick in dew points and humidity in the GL/OH valley area.

ENSO impacts take months to wane, it is not a "Oh *bleep*! It is May and time to get my act together type of system."



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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2018, 02:33 PM
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QUOTE(alczervik @ Apr 12 2018, 03:05 PM) *
Both of the items in bold imply colder than normal conditions.

Simple logic: If the main source of air that is impacting your climate is cold, more than likely you will experience the same with possibly some modification.


Just like when the flow is from the gulf, there is a sizable uptick in dew points and humidity in the GL/OH valley area.

ENSO impacts take months to wane, it is not a "Oh *bleep*! It is May and time to get my act together type of system."

Not always true. There's this thing called differential advection which happens when winds throughout the atmosphere change direction with height... called (vertical) wind shear... and it advects airmasses from different origins.

If northwesterly flow aloft always meant cold air at the surface, you'd be assuming that the winds never change direction with height. This would also mean storms can't rotate so supercells and tornadoes are impossible.

I was talking about northwesterly flow associated with a ring of fire. That means a central US ridge with a surface high that brings southerly/southwesterly flow under northwesterly flow aloft.

If you see this pattern, what do you think? Northwesterly flow aloft from the upper Midwest through the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. Has to be cold, right?



On that day, temps soared into the 90's all across the OV. At this point in time, West Virginia was in the 90's and was about to get hit by one of the most extreme derecho events in history. This was June 29, 2012.

The summers of 2011 and 2012 were both northwesterly flow summers for the OV. I can tell you those weren't cold summers.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 12 2018, 02:41 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 13 2018, 06:55 AM
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Well it is honestly quite comical to see these models outputs changing so much. Usually means a sign of a change in the pattern but we shall see. MJO holding rather decent thus far and still on the move into 2 over the next day or two got some severe weather going on in the midwest and southern plains sounds like spring.

As we move on i think we manage to really start to allow a warmer pattern to come in for longer periods as we move into may the beginning will be a bit of a roller coaster. Hey at least it is an active pattern maybe getting some storm action in the east part of the country? Im still worried we go instantly though to summer like conditions as we go through May into early June seems to happen that way more often then not with how extensive the cool pattern has managed.

I do have to agree with Cliche a bit that central ridging will probably end up being the key player as to how the summer evolves. NW flow even in the NE is not always a cold pattern it depends on some locations of southern NE and maine area that get into BDCF patterns but overall it usually is average to even above average at times. If you want a cold pattern you want the troughing further west to occur say over the western GL/upper midwest region but then we get the bermuda high influence. Have to get some pretty rainy patterns to really get the constant cool and im not sure that holds all through summer especially with a changing state of ENSO.

This representation is for years just solely on how the ENSO state has gone from weak to low-end moderate La Nina to cold neutral spring into summer. Not many years in the selection to go off of and didnt scale each graph so the colors are for your interpretation and will not be the same amplitude across all maps.

APR-JUN Pattern
Attached File  10YQgEbAg1.png ( 17.4K ) Number of downloads: 1


May 500gph then surface temp
Attached File  I_rIvzxwvR.png ( 16.47K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  9roc9lSi1n.png ( 21.34K ) Number of downloads: 0


Its not a gurantee but May seems decent with June kind of going back to a -NAO pattern and a rather cool pattern as we have seen. The troughing this year, in April, has been a little more prevalent in the Hudson Bay versus over western Canada and AK in those years from the graphs which allowed a little more ridging in the east.

Im hoping we dont just torch but would be nice to just sit at average for awhile.


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Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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Stratosphere Discussion:
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alczervik
post Apr 13 2018, 08:52 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 12 2018, 03:33 PM) *
Not always true. There's this thing called differential advection which happens when winds throughout the atmosphere change direction with height... called (vertical) wind shear... and it advects airmasses from different origins.

If northwesterly flow aloft always meant cold air at the surface, you'd be assuming that the winds never change direction with height. This would also mean storms can't rotate so supercells and tornadoes are impossible.

I was talking about northwesterly flow associated with a ring of fire. That means a central US ridge with a surface high that brings southerly/southwesterly flow under northwesterly flow aloft.

If you see this pattern, what do you think? Northwesterly flow aloft from the upper Midwest through the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. Has to be cold, right?



On that day, temps soared into the 90's all across the OV. At this point in time, West Virginia was in the 90's and was about to get hit by one of the most extreme derecho events in history. This was June 29, 2012.

The summers of 2011 and 2012 were both northwesterly flow summers for the OV. I can tell you those weren't cold summers.


Great explanation.

How does this stack up against the historically cool summers of 2009 & 2014? I believe July 2009 was in the top ten coolest for my area.




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