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> June 27-July 5? 2018 MidAtl/NE Heat Wave OBSX, Observations - last minute forecasts
Undertakerson
post Jun 23 2018, 06:30 AM
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Time to pull the plug on the June stationary front thread as the Atl ridging comes back with a vengeance (and reminds me of Summer 2015)

From Weather World http://cms.met.psu.edu/WeatherWorld/12day.html

Starting with ol' Uncle Paul (Knight) and the extended (for PA, but is representative of the region as a whole)


Attached Image


And rolling along with his cohort, "Uncle Fred"

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Mix in some CTP LR disco, for filler.

QUOTE
The big story during the second half of next week (possibly
lasting into early July) will be the hot/humid conditions
becoming established across the mid-Atlantic/Northeast states in
association with anomalous upper ridge. Max heat index grids for
Friday suggest the potential for heat advisory conditions
across the Susquehanna Valley. Will highlight the heat risk in
the HWO.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

And to finish this initial post, the WPC D7 surface fronts, etc.
Attached Image




Who's ready to get cooking? wink.gif

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jul 3 2018, 11:49 AM
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Undertakerson
post Jun 23 2018, 06:56 AM
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Trough west = ridge east

QUOTE
The forecast is still on track for hot/humid conditions to become
established over an increasingly large portion of the
central/eastern states. Locations from the central Plains to Mid
Atlantic/Northeast will have the best potential for seeing one or
more days with min and/or max readings reaching as high as 10-15F
above normal.
Adding in the effects of humidity, highest heat
index values should expand from the South early in the period to a
large area centered over/near the mid MS Valley as well as
southern Mid Atlantic/
Southeast. The Great Basin/Four Corners
region will see warm temperatures but with some gradual cooling
later in the period with the arrival of the western trough aloft.
This feature should bring coolest anomalies (5-15F below normal
for highs) into the northern parts of the West by next Sat.

Rausch

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jun 23 2018, 07:01 AM
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bradjl2009
post Jun 23 2018, 10:40 AM
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This is looking like it could be a very ugly heat wave in many areas. Some areas could see their first 100 degree day in a long time next weekend. Ugh.
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Ahoff
post Jun 23 2018, 01:36 PM
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Does look interesting. I can take the heat, but the humidity! Seems like the humidity will be bad too.
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Undertakerson
post Jun 24 2018, 04:13 AM
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QUOTE
An expanding area of hot/humid conditions will likely cover a
large portion of the central-eastern U.S. by late this week and
weekend. Currently expect the axis of highest min/max temperature
anomalies of plus 10-20F to extend from the central Plains through
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and into the Northeast.
Any daily
records appear to be more likely for warm lows than daytime high
s.
Increased low-level moisture will also lead to very high heat
index values over many areas.
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geeter1
post Jun 24 2018, 08:06 AM
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Glad to be going to the Jersey Shore for this duration of warm weather cool.gif cool.gif cool.gif
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MaineJay
post Jun 24 2018, 08:21 AM
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GYX

QUOTE
Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end Thursday evening as
the front pushes east of the area. A shallow ridge of high pressure
will build in from the west Thursday night. Very little in the way
of cold air behind this departing boundary and expect temperatures
to soar on Friday as massive ridge builds over the eastern half of
the country. Looking for highs ranging through the 80s to near 90
in what will be the beginning of an extended period of heat and
humidity which will last through the weekend and into early next
week.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jun 24 2018, 08:22 AM


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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NorEaster07
post Jun 24 2018, 11:12 AM
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Attached Image


Euro00z for Hartford.

Heatwave starts Friday. .

Dews rising.

Only 2 rain chances next 10 days.

Reminder these arent max-mins. blink.gif

Attached Image
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Solstice
post Jun 24 2018, 01:25 PM
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*vomits all over laptop*
Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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bingobobbo
post Jun 24 2018, 01:40 PM
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A heat wave thread with a Question Mark as the end date is my worst nightmare. Fortunately, September, a.k.a. meteorological autumn, it less than 10 weeks away. If it is going to be sultry, I am hoping for frequent rain showers to cool things off from time to time. The absolute worse combination is high temperatures, high humidity, high dewpoints, but zero or almost zero rain--like 1973, 1983, 1995, 1999, 2005, and more. I hope this is our worst hot spell of summer.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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stxprowl
post Jun 24 2018, 11:57 PM
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ohmy.gif http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=...us_ma&dpdt=

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Gnutella
post Jun 25 2018, 12:13 AM
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QUOTE(stxprowl @ Jun 25 2018, 12:57 AM) *
ohmy.gif http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=...us_ma&dpdt=

Attached Image


If that map verifies, then it'll be the earliest in any year that the temperature has ever reached 100F in Pittsburgh. Currently, the earliest is July 4. That means the map above won't verify, especially considering that heat in Pittsburgh has been getting less and less extreme since the 1940s.
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MaineJay
post Jun 25 2018, 04:11 AM
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GYX. 100 is very difficult to reach up here. I believe PWM has only done it 4 times in over 100 of record keeping.

QUOTE
The short wave trough moves out by Friday ending the threat of
rain. Thereafter, the 00z deterministic guidance as well as a
good portion of the latest ensemble information point toward the
possibility of an anomalous mid level ridge setting up just to
our south over the weekend. This would allow a plume of
anomalous heat to push in New England for Saturday and Sunday.
The 00z deterministic ECMWF and GFS shows highs around 100
degrees for many southern locations in our forecast area for at
least Sunday. However, despite relatively good agreement in
current forecast information, there are many things that could
temper heat and/or duration of heat here in ME and NH. This
could be a subtle short wave trough not currently resolved 6
days out, convective debris, the mid level ridge being flatter
than currently advertised, etc. However, at this time we are
expecting it to get quite hot and humid over the weekend based
on the good model agreement. However, not quite ready to
explicitly forecast 100 degrees anywhere as of yet.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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MaineJay
post Jun 25 2018, 04:31 AM
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ECMWF, I want none of this, I really hope it's way over done. I'm exceedingly grateful that we picked up an inch of rain over the past week, and hope for more, as it's been fairly dry and that moisture would likely be quickly vaporized by this level of heat.

2pm Sunday
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2pm Monday
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https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maine/...0702-1800z.html


Drought monitor.

Attached Image

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/S....aspx?Northeast

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jun 25 2018, 04:37 AM


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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jun 25 2018, 07:55 AM
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Very difficult for us to get into the nineties here in the apps. NWS is not buying that this will get us there, yet. Certainly will be hot and humid.

and holy cow the thunderstorms yesterday. Wicked little cells.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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Ahoff
post Jun 25 2018, 08:21 AM
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QUOTE(Gnutella @ Jun 25 2018, 01:13 AM) *
If that map verifies, then it'll be the earliest in any year that the temperature has ever reached 100F in Pittsburgh. Currently, the earliest is July 4. That means the map above won't verify, especially considering that heat in Pittsburgh has been getting less and less extreme since the 1940s.


This looks impressive. I doubt we go that high, but the consistency of models hitting the mid 90s is crazy. I'm supposed to go to the amusement park on Sunday too, so that looks fun.
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LUCC
post Jun 25 2018, 08:41 AM
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QUOTE(geeter1 @ Jun 24 2018, 09:06 AM) *
Glad to be going to the Jersey Shore for this duration of warm weather cool.gif cool.gif cool.gif

Just keep right except to pass on the AC expressway and GS Parkway!!!! dry.gif tongue.gif


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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LUCC
post Jun 25 2018, 08:51 AM
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QUOTE(Ahoff @ Jun 25 2018, 09:21 AM) *
This looks impressive. I doubt we go that high, but the consistency of models hitting the mid 90s is crazy. I'm supposed to go to the amusement park on Sunday too, so that looks fun.

Looks like another hot July 4th here! Everyone was begging for this a month and a half ago so here it is. cool.gif Going to be in the lower 80s down in Wildwood from today into next week so that will be great! biggrin.gif


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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LUCC
post Jun 25 2018, 08:56 AM
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HAWT!!!







--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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stxprowl
post Jun 25 2018, 09:22 AM
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sad.gif
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This post has been edited by stxprowl: Jun 25 2018, 09:23 AM
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