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> June 27-July 5? 2018 MidAtl/NE Heat Wave OBSX, Observations - last minute forecasts
LUCC
post Jun 25 2018, 10:11 AM
Post #21




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QUOTE(stxprowl @ Jun 25 2018, 10:22 AM) *
sad.gif
[attachment=356644:790DB3F0...F93ECF64.png]
[attachment=356643:1AC2C239...21F0D46C.png]

90 for overnight lows! blink.gif


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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Ahoff
post Jun 25 2018, 10:11 AM
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^ ohmy.gif
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stxprowl
post Jun 25 2018, 11:19 AM
Post #23




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Looks like he got his days mixed up. Let’s see what the 12z puts out. unsure.gif
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From Dave Epstein @growingwisdom
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Undertakerson
post Jun 25 2018, 11:49 AM
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AFDAKQ (Wakefield, VA)

QUOTE
Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 90s Thu-Sun with lows in
the low to mid 70s. Glancing at the beginning of July, GFS and EURO
ensembles both suggest that warmer temperatures will sign up for an
extended stay over the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern U.S
.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jun 25 2018, 11:49 AM
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bingobobbo
post Jun 25 2018, 01:09 PM
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If it's going to be hot, we may as well go for a record high. Saturday's record of 92 from 1964 (The Beach Boys' "I Get Around") could be tied (They are predicting a max of 91). Sunday's record is a mere 87 degrees, set 50 years ago. There is a 95 percent chance that that will fall--unless we get a pop-up storm after the temperature soars to 86 and the storm drops the temp to 76, and the mercury rises back to 86.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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telejunkie
post Jun 25 2018, 02:09 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jun 25 2018, 05:31 AM) *
ECMWF, I want none of this, I really hope it's way over done. I'm exceedingly grateful that we picked up an inch of rain over the past week, and hope for more, as it's been fairly dry and that moisture would likely be quickly vaporized by this level of heat.

2pm Sunday
[attachment=356640:Screensh...5_053032.jpg]

2pm Monday
[attachment=356641:Screensh...5_053119.jpg]

Well I for one certainly can hope the Euro knows what's talking about...with a "cold-dome" parked over Bennington/Windham counties here in southern VT... cool.gif


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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stxprowl
post Jun 25 2018, 02:26 PM
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Wow, I wonder what town this is? ohmy.gif I didn’t think it was that bad yet.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/S....aspx?Northeast

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telejunkie
post Jun 25 2018, 03:01 PM
Post #28




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QUOTE(stxprowl @ Jun 25 2018, 03:26 PM) *
Wow, I wonder what town this is? ohmy.gif I didn’t think it was that bad yet.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/S....aspx?Northeast

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Sundaydriver out there?

Was just in Pepperell, Mass yesterday and many lawns in that area were browned out. Saw several strongly worded signs about their water restrictions. Luckily they got a pretty hefty rains yesterday and last night...woke up to a couple cracks of lightning.


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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bingobobbo
post Jun 25 2018, 03:34 PM
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There is good news and bad news: The good news is that NWS has lowered Wednesday's max all the way to an almost springlike 72. Thursday's max is now below 80, and Friday's is a tolerable 84. Even if it makes 90 on Saturday, we could still clinch a below-normal month for temperatures. If Wednesday's big rain pans out, we could also--against all odds--clinch a wetter-than-normal June. So much for the notion of our driest June in 14 years--it will be merely our driest since 2016.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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telejunkie
post Jun 25 2018, 04:12 PM
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blink.gif wish I could lock tonight's air in storage for this weekend...

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Jun 25 2018, 04:12 PM
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Attached Image
 


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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Undertakerson
post Jun 25 2018, 04:24 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Jun 25 2018, 05:12 PM) *
blink.gif wish I could lock tonight's air in storage for this weekend...

Yeah - me too. Especially for Saturday. Ugh - nasty.

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LUCC
post Jun 25 2018, 06:31 PM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Jun 25 2018, 04:34 PM) *
There is good news and bad news: The good news is that NWS has lowered Wednesday's max all the way to an almost springlike 72. Thursday's max is now below 80, and Friday's is a tolerable 84. Even if it makes 90 on Saturday, we could still clinch a below-normal month for temperatures. If Wednesday's big rain pans out, we could also--against all odds--clinch a wetter-than-normal June. So much for the notion of our driest June in 14 years--it will be merely our driest since 2016.

For you, yes, for most, no. We are going to get fried!!!!!! cool.gif


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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Ahoff
post Jun 25 2018, 08:22 PM
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Accuweather has, rather aggressively in my opinion, put our Sunday high up to 99. It will change (drop), but I only ever saw a 99 forecast here in 2012, so that's interesting.
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STEVE392
post Jun 25 2018, 08:40 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Jun 25 2018, 11:11 AM) *
90 for overnight lows! blink.gif



omg, yuck! My house is 80 years old with virtually no insulation in the attic/eaves. Second floor becomes a sauna and the a/c struggles to cool it down.
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Undertakerson
post Jun 26 2018, 05:48 AM
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I went ahead and placed an end date on the thread, as a potent front swings through near the 4th - clearing out most of the "junk", and setting up a pretty potent upper level gyre in E Canada - would shunt the cooler and drier NW flow back in.

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Ryan Duff
post Jun 26 2018, 06:04 AM
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I see we're up to the same wintertime antics using operational models in D5+ rather than ensembles. Then of course followed by the complaints of "those temps are outrageous!" or "way overdone!"

Sterling with a sage reminder in their AFD and also going with low 90's for now around the weekend period.

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
346 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridging builds over the Mid Atlantic Friday through the weekend,
supporting advection of a hot and humid air mass. Temperatures at
850 mb rise to near 20C by Saturday, which suggests that highs will
reach the 90s. There still is some spread in exactly how warm it
will get. The ensemble approach wiser in this situation anyways, so
the forecast will reflect that.
Combined with 70 degree dewpoints,
the heat index will at least be close to Advisory criteria; will
continue to highlight in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.




I think there's a term for picking statistical outliers to help make your argument. MDBR, can you refresh me on what that's called? wink.gif


--------------------
M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)

"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

Current Elevation: 30' ASL
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KENNYP2339
post Jun 26 2018, 06:16 AM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Jun 26 2018, 07:04 AM) *
I see we're up to the same wintertime antics using operational models in D5+ rather than ensembles. Then of course followed by the complaints of "those temps are outrageous!" or "way overdone!"

Sterling with a sage reminder in their AFD and also going with low 90's for now around the weekend period.


I think there's a term for picking statistical outliers to help make your argument. MDBR, can you refresh me on what that's called? wink.gif

I think he's still in a fog over there
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psu1313
post Jun 26 2018, 08:31 AM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Jun 26 2018, 07:04 AM) *
I see we're up to the same wintertime antics using operational models in D5+ rather than ensembles. Then of course followed by the complaints of "those temps are outrageous!" or "way overdone!"

Sterling with a sage reminder in their AFD and also going with low 90's for now around the weekend period.


I think there's a term for picking statistical outliers to help make your argument. MDBR, can you refresh me on what that's called? wink.gif


I'm leaning toward slightly warmer mid-90's due to blending but still in the same ballpark. DC could easily hit 100 on Sunday if we get the winds right. It has been wet so that could keep temperatures from maximizing. The question becomes when will DC see a high below 90 again? (Mind you the average high right now is 88 so it doesn't take much to be in the 90's.) Very well could be July 4th.
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telejunkie
post Jun 26 2018, 08:38 AM
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Spotty frost in some of the local mountain communities last night...full-on furnace this weekend...still June I guess. Euro has 595 parked over Morgantown...


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--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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bingobobbo
post Jun 26 2018, 01:36 PM
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NWS already calling for 95-ish on Sunday, which should erase an easy-to-beat record from 1968. Monday's record also seems within reach. If it reaches 90, it will be our hottest first of the month in 12 years (8/1/06), but one degree hotter will make it the hottest start to a month in Binghamton since Aug. 1, 1955!

This post has been edited by bingobobbo: Jul 1 2018, 10:23 AM


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