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> June 27-July 5? 2018 MidAtl/NE Heat Wave OBSX, Observations - last minute forecasts
Ryan Duff
post Jul 7 2018, 05:41 AM
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65F at 6am and a stiff breeze off the water. Turned off the AC and opened up all the windows. It's glorious!


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M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)

"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

Current Elevation: 30' ASL
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yamvmax
post Jul 7 2018, 06:31 AM
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Yikes! Its cold out! 60, with a breeze! tongue.gif
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bradjl2009
post Jul 7 2018, 01:27 PM
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Felt great this morning, got down to 57 which is the coolest morning we've had in three weeks! Looking forward it getting down that low or lower again tonight. NWS has temps in the mid 80's during the next week IMBY, so not too bad, especially after last week.
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telejunkie
post Jul 10 2018, 04:15 PM
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Looking to be a good one bearing down...

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
VTC003-025-102200-
/O.NEW.KALY.SV.W.0045.180710T2101Z-180710T2200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Albany NY
501 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018

The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northern Bennington County in southern Vermont...
Northwestern Windham County in southern Vermont...

* Until 600 PM EDT.

* At 501 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Dorset, or 9
miles northwest of Manchester, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
Dorset around 510 PM EDT.
Manchester and Manchester Center around 520 PM EDT.
Londonderry around 550 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Wardsboro Center, Stratton Valley, Beartown, Windham, Bondville,
Rupert, Peru Town Center, Grafton, Stratton Acres and Rawsonville.


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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telejunkie
post Jul 10 2018, 09:03 PM
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Disappointing evening but got a little rain so not complete loss...not quite a .1”


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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MaineJay
post Jul 11 2018, 05:01 AM
Post #286




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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Jul 10 2018, 10:03 PM) *
Disappointing evening but got a little rain so not complete loss...not quite a .1”



Nothing fell imby, a few cells popped yesterday, saw lightning, but no rain. Unfortunately, it looks like lightning started a nasty fire at the Fryeburg fairgrounds. sad.gif I don't believe any people or animals were injured at least. The last two days were in the 90s.

Attached Image

http://www.sunjournal.com/buildings-on-fir...rg-fairgrounds/


Next seven days looks dry.


Attached Image


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 11 2018, 05:01 AM


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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telejunkie
post Jul 11 2018, 09:05 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 11 2018, 06:01 AM) *
Nothing fell imby, a few cells popped yesterday, saw lightning, but no rain. Unfortunately, it looks like lightning started a nasty fire at the Fryeburg fairgrounds. sad.gif I don't believe any people or animals were injured at least. The last two days were in the 90s.

Next seven days looks dry.

Whoa! Have a coworker who grew up near Fryeburg and her and her family go to the fair every year.

So literally a few yards north of my backyard, sounds like the storm got pretty wild with decent sized hail being reported the next road north. Razor thin line...

We've got a chance of some convection on Saturday with a clipper-like s/w potentially swinging through. Hoping it can bring some moisture cause it's gonna get hot again after that...


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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Ahoff
post Jul 11 2018, 10:50 AM
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Is it still looking like a heat wave, or something close is coming end of next week? Just trying to figure out if I'll melt during our church's festival. Temps have been getting generally lower on the forecasts, so not sure? Thanks in advance.
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telejunkie
post Jul 11 2018, 11:51 AM
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QUOTE(Ahoff @ Jul 11 2018, 11:50 AM) *
Is it still looking like a heat wave, or something close is coming end of next week? Just trying to figure out if I'll melt during our church's festival. Temps have been getting generally lower on the forecasts, so not sure? Thanks in advance.

start of next week looks to get warm, but by end of next week it looks to me to be seasonable to seasonably cool (zonal or even possibly some eastern troughing with a possible western ridge popping up). Not sure what the OFM crowd thinks about that, but that what i'm seeing on various ensembles. GEFS brings a pretty serious eastern trough on the scene by the 4th week of July...but we know to take that with a grain of salt. Here's GEFS for next Friday:

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Jul 11 2018, 12:02 PM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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Ahoff
post Jul 11 2018, 12:39 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Jul 11 2018, 12:51 PM) *
start of next week looks to get warm, but by end of next week it looks to me to be seasonable to seasonably cool (zonal or even possibly some eastern troughing with a possible western ridge popping up). Not sure what the OFM crowd thinks about that, but that what i'm seeing on various ensembles. GEFS brings a pretty serious eastern trough on the scene by the 4th week of July...but we know to take that with a grain of salt. Here's GEFS for next Friday:


That'd be good then. Hopefully little to no rain as well. Sunny and 80 would be picture perfect, just like today.
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phillyfan
post Jul 11 2018, 12:57 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 11 2018, 06:01 AM) *
Nothing fell imby, a few cells popped yesterday, saw lightning, but no rain. Unfortunately, it looks like lightning started a nasty fire at the Fryeburg fairgrounds. sad.gif I don't believe any people or animals were injured at least. The last two days were in the 90s.

Attached Image

http://www.sunjournal.com/buildings-on-fir...rg-fairgrounds/
Next seven days looks dry.


Attached Image

Tuesday looks like the one and only chance upcoming, as the rest of this week and next week look dry. No rain drops here since last Friday early morning.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 11 2018, 11:30 PM
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Looks like we have a little reprieve after this s/w but it comes back probably not in the surge we had the last time. Seems further west will get in on it, OV/GL upper midwest area. Looks like the time from about sunday to wednesday looks iffy for possible rain at times that will keep the temps down a bit. Ridging is looking to retrograde west as we bring in the troughiness for the mid/end of the month. We are getting a strong signal showing up now in the models around 5/6 in the mjo this time of year tends to bring the cooler conditions to the east, there is a lot of noise in those significance charts but overall if you have some cooling conditions in the midwest should translate east. Stay cool


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Undertakerson
post Jul 12 2018, 04:47 AM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Jul 11 2018, 12:51 PM) *
start of next week looks to get warm, but by end of next week it looks to me to be seasonable to seasonably cool (zonal or even possibly some eastern troughing with a possible western ridge popping up). Not sure what the OFM crowd thinks about that, but that what i'm seeing on various ensembles. GEFS brings a pretty serious eastern trough on the scene by the 4th week of July...but we know to take that with a grain of salt. Here's GEFS for next Friday:


Attached Image



Time to start a new thread for the mid month cool down wink.gif
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 12 2018, 05:29 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 12 2018, 05:47 AM) *

Attached Image

Time to start a new thread for the mid month cool down wink.gif


Unfortunately not sure how long the pattern holds. I say we may be good until the end of the month for a cooldown, probably closer to normal depends on rainfall, then we go into probably another warm pattern in august. Still pretty far away been out of the loop for a while with vacation and house hunting. Ill take a look in the next couple days.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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LUCC
post Jul 12 2018, 08:19 AM
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Another hot one yesterday, was pretty nasty out, planted 12 arborvitae bushes and was drenched with sweat afterwards.


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 12 2018, 10:07 AM
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Man the weather has been beautiful!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Keep it coming summer


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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bradjl2009
post Jul 12 2018, 08:49 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 12 2018, 10:07 AM) *
Man the weather has been beautiful!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Keep it coming summer

It's been pretty decent the last 6 days here overall too. Besides Tuesday, we've actually been below normal every day since Friday.
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geeter1
post Jul 13 2018, 12:52 PM
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It just does not get much better than this. Love winter, but the last few days
are hard to beat. cool.gif cool.gif cool.gif
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KENNYP2339
post Jul 14 2018, 06:03 AM
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QUOTE(geeter1 @ Jul 13 2018, 01:52 PM) *
It just does not get much better than this. Love winter, but the last few days
are hard to beat. cool.gif cool.gif cool.gif

Same here, low to mid 80's is my weather in the summer, I got a full pickup of firewood yesterday, got home, unloaded it, sawed up some long logs and split it all, hardly broke a sweat. I do hope we get some rain, my grass is burnt pretty good, last time it was like this was the summer of 2012.
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Solstice
post Jul 14 2018, 09:27 PM
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Sneaky storms.
Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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