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> July 8-? Plains/MW/OV/GL Severe Weather, Medium-range: 4-8 day forecasts and observations
ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 3 2018, 11:11 PM
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A nice ridge is going to build over the central latitudes of the US. A strong jet stream will exist on top of the ridge and disturbances may roll through the area, which may spill over to east or northeast quadrants of the ridge. Feels like a good setup for MCSs.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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FireworkWX03
post Jul 4 2018, 04:57 PM
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This pattern will come as those in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast enter the peak of the summer severe weather season. Good to see some upper level support which has been lacking in the current setup that is about to be ushered out.

Tornado and derecho threats drop off precipitously at the end of the month in these areas, although you can occasionally get a straggler through mid-late August.

And since it's the anniversary and there's literally nothing else of note to talk about beyond heat and pulse storms, here's an interesting recap of the July 4th, 1969 Ohio Fireworks Derecho (pictured in my avatar): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6ITrsEMLq0
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FireworkWX03
post Jul 12 2018, 09:52 AM
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It remains quiet everywhere but around the International Border. Looks like a little support for some weak severe in the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe around the Great Lakes for now. After that another quiescent pattern that will take us towards the end of the month.

As far as the 2018 main severe weather season goes, the fat lady is warming up I'm afraid... (appropriate for what a scorcher it has been). laugh.gif
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Jul 14 2018, 03:07 PM
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Not really severe related, but was on pivotal look8ng at thw HRRR QPF output and noticed that the 4 main data input runs, 0Z, 6Z, 12Z and 18Z runs now have 36 hour hourly forecasts. Hadn't noticed it before so not sure when it started. Been a few since I have watched a few runs, all other hourly runs are still 18 hours.

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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Jul 14 2018, 04:39 PM
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Nice little squall

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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Jul 14 2018, 04:45 PM
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Warning just issued.


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melissa from ill...
post Jul 14 2018, 04:48 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jul 14 2018, 04:45 PM) *
Warning just issued.


Attached Image


its lookin pretty nasty west of us. we may finally see something good.


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"I gotta go, we got COWS!"
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Jul 14 2018, 04:49 PM
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QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 1055
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018

Areas affected...portions of southern into central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 142140Z - 142315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong, locally damaging wind gusts will be possible
late this afternoon across portions of central IL. A watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms have become loosely organized
across west-central IL this afternoon. A few severe gusts have been
noted near the St. Louis metro area over the last hour and some
linear organization has developed further north into central IL.
Strong heating of a very moist boundary layer has resulted in MLCAPE
greater than 2000 J/kg across the MCD area. Modest deep layer
effective shear around 30 kt is present and likely aiding in the
loosely organized cluster/line segment. Furthermore, steep low level
lapse rates and PW values approaching 2 inches could result in a wet
microburst or two. Eastward extent of the severe threat will be
limited by earlier cluster of storms across east-central into
southeast IL, which has stabilized the boundary layer. Given the
limited area and isolated nature of the threat, a watch is not
expected, but a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be
possible.

..Leitman/Hart.. 07/14/2018
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Jul 14 2018, 04:51 PM
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QUOTE(melissa from illinois @ Jul 14 2018, 04:48 PM) *
its lookin pretty nasty west of us. we may finally see something good.

You jinxed it this time, not me laugh.gif
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melissa from ill...
post Jul 14 2018, 05:09 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jul 14 2018, 04:51 PM) *
You jinxed it this time, not me laugh.gif


at least the clouds looked cool, lol


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"I gotta go, we got COWS!"
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Jul 14 2018, 05:16 PM
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About all its gonna be. Getting into areas where it was overturned this morning and weakening. Losing its convective aspect as well. Lightning dropped way off
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Jul 14 2018, 05:29 PM
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Not even gonna get rain out of it lol. Mother Nature needs pimp slapped.



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melissa from ill...
post Jul 14 2018, 05:30 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jul 14 2018, 05:29 PM) *
Not even gonna get rain out of it lol. Mother Nature needs pimp slapped.


i just literally said that to my daughter. The rain part, lol.


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"I gotta go, we got COWS!"
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jul 14 2018, 05:57 PM
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St. Louis has been getting hammered today. Reds/Cards game in second rain delay of the game and now are under a severe t-storm warning.
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jul 14 2018, 07:05 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jul 14 2018, 06:29 PM) *
Not even gonna get rain out of it lol. Mother Nature needs pimp slapped.

Appears by radar its raining pretty good there.
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Jul 14 2018, 09:40 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jul 14 2018, 07:05 PM) *
Appears by radar its raining pretty good there.

When you go from this

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To this

Attached Image


inside of an hour, then it takes another hour to start raining, yeah, a bit lackluster in its entirety.

Ended up with .4" with a steady light rain over a few hours. Nothing from the main convection/severe aspect.
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FireworkWX03
post Jul 15 2018, 04:20 AM
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That is one heck of a split around Springfield.

Only thing I can say is there's a pattern change coming this week -- maybe it will yield something more favorable! The current one has done none of us any favors. Derecho season is almost done but late July - early September can surprise once in a while.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 15 2018, 11:36 PM
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QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ Jul 15 2018, 05:20 AM) *
That is one heck of a split around Springfield.

Only thing I can say is there's a pattern change coming this week -- maybe it will yield something more favorable! The current one has done none of us any favors. Derecho season is almost done but late July - early September can surprise once in a while.

Things are certainly wrapping up for the warm season... especially with the outlooks for the next 2 weeks. It's been an insanely inactive year for tornadoes, which surprises me. Always have the fall tornado season. I think we're about due for a nice outbreak but we'd need an April 2011-like November to catch us up to average.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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FireworkWX03
post Jul 16 2018, 03:44 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 16 2018, 12:36 AM) *
Things are certainly wrapping up for the warm season... especially with the outlooks for the next 2 weeks. It's been an insanely inactive year for tornadoes, which surprises me. Always have the fall tornado season. I think we're about due for a nice outbreak but we'd need an April 2011-like November to catch us up to average.


Ha, indeed -- you'd have to combine 2002 and 2013 a couple other November events and then maybe you could talk about average.

At this point I'm just hoping for just a squall line with a warned spin-up or two. The warm season window on that is still open for about a month and a half. There are of course tropical systems that can run up the total, but the environment in the Atlantic is not really conducive to an overactive hurricane season.

We just can't shake the overall trend of the 2010s. I don't mean solely the GL/OV either, but nationally. Mother Nature went into hibernation the summer of 2011 after raining down terror that spring. Or maybe the turning point was the non-winter/Morch of 2012. Anyway, that's all anecdotal and non-scientific, before anyone objects, lol. Lulls in severe are not historically abnormal, just sucks to live in one. The book on 2019 (and even 2018 -- hope spring eternal for my MRGL risk today!) isn't written but wouldn't it be funny if the decade was essentially bookended by insane tornado years with nothing in between?
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Juniorrr
post Jul 17 2018, 11:29 AM
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Been a quiet almost 2 weeks. Looks like something will fall from the sky this weekend at last. May even get some boomers if the NAM is correct..
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