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> Hurricane Chris, 7/10 5PM EST - 85 MPH - 980 MB - Movement: NE @ 10 MPH
Ron in Miami
post Jul 5 2018, 12:49 PM
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1. A weak low pressure system located a few hundred miles west-
southwest of Bermuda is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some development through the end of the week while the system
moves west-northwestward and then northward at about 10 mph off the
coast of North Carolina. The low is forecast to interact with a
frontal system on Sunday, which should limit any additional
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Jul 10 2018, 07:03 PM
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Undertakerson
post Jul 6 2018, 05:09 AM
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Hmmm


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yamvmax
post Jul 6 2018, 07:06 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 6 2018, 05:09 AM) *
Hmmm


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Suprised no one is talking about this.
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stretchct
post Jul 6 2018, 08:52 AM
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GFS is alarming


But I'm wondering what's up with the GFS lately. Its been running 5-10 degrees warmer and over developing systems. The parallel looks more reasonable, but still suspicious.

Anyway, a front moving over a disturbance like this should spin something up.

This post has been edited by stretchct: Jul 6 2018, 08:52 AM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 6 2018, 09:44 AM
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Here's a run of the wavewatch, which I think is generated by the GFS. The darker sections in the middle are 42 foot waves. This has 20 footers brushing the coast by NC and New England



--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 6 2018, 10:21 AM
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From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Levi has a good video - second half is I96L

Tropical Tidbits Blog


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Undertakerson
post Jul 6 2018, 11:30 AM
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Beryl, located over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean more than a thousand miles east-southeast of the Lesser
Antilles.

1. Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in association with a
well-defined low pressure system located a few hundred miles
southeast of the North Carolina coast. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for additional development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next
couple of days while the system moves[b] slowly northwestward and
stalls or meanders
near the coast of North Carolina over the
weekend. Interests along the North Carolina and South Carolina
coasts should monitor the progress of this system during the next
several days[/b].
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Public Advisories on Beryl are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Beryl
are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT2.
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jdrenken
post Jul 6 2018, 12:55 PM
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CODE

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0105 PM EDT FRI 06 JULY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-043 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF CAROLINA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 07/1500Z A. 08/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 07/1200Z C. 08/0300Z
D. 33.2N 74.4W D. 33.5N 74.5W
E. 07/1430Z TO 07/1830Z E. 08/0530Z TO 08/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42
A. 08/1030Z
B. NOAA2 0303A CYCLONE
C. 08/0830Z
D. 33.5N 74.5W
E. 08/1000Z TO 08/1500Z <-----DATES CORRECTED
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY WC-130 FIXES FOR SUSPECT SYSTEM.
B. NOAA 42 P-3 TDR MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS FOR SUSPECT SYSTEM.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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stxprowl
post Jul 6 2018, 01:14 PM
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Potential fuel

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stretchct
post Jul 6 2018, 03:07 PM
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QUOTE(stxprowl @ Jul 6 2018, 02:14 PM) *
Potential fuel

Attached Image

Wow - good find. I had to go down to Vaca Key to find a water temp higher. There the water is 90.1F or 32.2C


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stxprowl
post Jul 6 2018, 03:30 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jul 6 2018, 04:07 PM) *
Wow - good find. I had to go down to Vaca Key to find a water temp higher. There the water is 90.1F or 32.2C

Wow that’s nuts! Check this out.
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stxprowl
post Jul 6 2018, 03:46 PM
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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?cone#contents
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 6 2018, 06:19 PM
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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 73.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1016 MB...30.01 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Three was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude
73.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near
5 mph (7 km/h). The depression should slow down and meander of well
offshore of the coast of North Carolina through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday,
with gradual strengthening expected through Monday. A
reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the cyclone on
Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1016 mb (30.01 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Undertakerson
post Jul 7 2018, 08:34 AM
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ADT Limiting Flags are both "off" and GOES Band 2 imagery shows an explosion of convection near the CoC. We might have a name by 11 a.m. update.


RECON flight is about 3/4 of the way there.



This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jul 7 2018, 08:36 AM
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MaineJay
post Jul 7 2018, 09:25 AM
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Band 3 with band 16 sprinkled on top.

Attached Image

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider


Sultry

Attached Image


https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/natlanti.cf.gif


--------------------
Purveyor of handcrafted GOES16 gifs since 2017
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Undertakerson
post Jul 7 2018, 09:33 AM
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MaineJay
post Jul 7 2018, 10:05 AM
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Image is about 3 hours old, shows some deep convection.

Attached Image

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...OD=1degreeticks


--------------------
Purveyor of handcrafted GOES16 gifs since 2017
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Undertakerson
post Jul 7 2018, 10:29 AM
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Not quite yet. Recon should give a bit better idea, obviously.

QUOTE
000
WTNT43 KNHC 071450
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

Although the convection has increased this morning and it seems a
little better organized, surface observations and satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB indicate that the winds remain
at 25 kt.
An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will check the
depression later this morning, so we will have more information
about the intensity and structure of the depression later today
.
The cyclone will remain over warm waters and in a relatively
low-shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. Based on these
conditions, the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening at a
rate very close to the HCCA corrected consensus model. The cyclone
will most likely begin to acquire extratropical characteristics by
the end of the forecast period.

The depression is embedded within very weak steering currents, and
little motion is anticipated for the next 2 days. After that time,
the cyclone will be steered toward the northeast with increasing
forward speed within the southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching
mid-level trough. Guidance clearly indicates the cyclone's slow
motion during the next 2 days, and unanimously forecast the cyclone
to accelerate to the northeast thereafter. The NHC forecast is in
the middle of the guidance envelope, and very closely follows the
multi-model consensus.

Guidance continues to suggest that the forecast tropical-storm-force
winds associated with the cyclone will not reach the U.S. coast. On
this basis, no watches or warnings are required at this time,
however, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the
progress of the depression.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 33.1N 74.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 33.4N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 33.5N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 33.5N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 35.5N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 39.5N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 47.0N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila
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stretchct
post Jul 7 2018, 01:28 PM
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Looks like they are keeping this a TD for now
Attached Image

Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 7 2018, 01:38 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 6,869
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Here's a look at the satellite mid day


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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