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> February 9th-11th MidAtl/Northeast DKBIII Blizzard, Cogitation: Short Range [0-3 Days Out]
Supertyphoon
post Feb 8 2017, 05:10 PM
Post #3081




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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 8 2017, 05:08 PM) *
.
[attachment=316649:3873590_...85_9rkDK.gif]



laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif


--------------------
On the left...
Back to the Rockers....the best!

Davis Weather Station my backyard in Ashburn: www.stormysweather.com/WxFlash

Forecast Challenge 2016-17 update:

Forecast competition has finished. Results released 3/16 at 8pm
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Undertakerson
post Feb 8 2017, 05:10 PM
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QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 05:09 PM) *
Sir Knight.....we humbly ask your blessing to open the obs thread. This unworthy soul is incapable of doing so. I simply forecast.

Dont' worry I got this.
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stilko4
post Feb 8 2017, 05:10 PM
Post #3083




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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 8 2017, 05:06 PM) *
If only we had blocking....


Someone would get 3ft imo.
Maybe one of the next 2.

At least this one should have great snow rates...


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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Supertyphoon
post Feb 8 2017, 05:11 PM
Post #3084




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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 05:10 PM) *
Dont' worry I got this.



I request remedial thread opening OJT sometime in the future


--------------------
On the left...
Back to the Rockers....the best!

Davis Weather Station my backyard in Ashburn: www.stormysweather.com/WxFlash

Forecast Challenge 2016-17 update:

Forecast competition has finished. Results released 3/16 at 8pm
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stilko4
post Feb 8 2017, 05:11 PM
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Let's see how quickly the temps drop.


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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WINTERSTORMWARNI...
post Feb 8 2017, 05:12 PM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 8 2017, 05:02 PM) *
I'm tired of stating my opinions. What do you guys think for NW Philly?

10
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rtcemc
post Feb 8 2017, 05:12 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 8 2017, 05:05 PM) *
7.3 powerstroke, care to weigh in?

laugh.gif laugh.gif
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Weatherjunkie
post Feb 8 2017, 05:13 PM
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I do like the NAM timing of slightly quicker, slightly farther north track. Not a huge difference at the end of the day, but could shift accumulations a touch for some.

Another thing to note, this will be a very quick heavy wet snowfall in many places. If you wait 6 hours until then end to go out and measure/clean, you're going to end up seeing 3.5" of slop. There will be rates in some places of 3"/hour. If you want accurate measurements you're going to have to go out there every half hour to hour. In a quick moving system like this, shouldn't be much of an issue for some of you younger folk. I have grandkids for that.

This post has been edited by Weatherjunkie: Feb 8 2017, 05:13 PM


--------------------
The reason I talk to myself is that I am the only one whose answers I accept~ George Carlin

To be or not to be is not a question of compromise. Either you be or you don't be ~ Golda Meir

Sometimes good guys gotta do bad things to make the bad guys pay ~ Harvey Specter

Why is the rum gone? ~ Captain Jack Sparrow
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Undertakerson
post Feb 8 2017, 05:13 PM
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Obsx thread opened - whenever everyone is ready

Nice job BTW - Snowadelphia

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...p;#entry2192252

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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Feb 8 2017, 05:15 PM
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rtcemc
post Feb 8 2017, 05:14 PM
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QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 05:11 PM) *
I request remedial thread opening OJT sometime in the future

You are such a NERD laugh.gif
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StormTracker
post Feb 8 2017, 05:14 PM
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QUOTE(WINTERSTORMWARNING @ Feb 8 2017, 05:12 PM) *
10

Really? Well I'm be darned that's a nice prediction
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Supertyphoon
post Feb 8 2017, 05:16 PM
Post #3092




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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 05:14 PM) *
You are such a NERD laugh.gif


I only accept that word from MDBR


--------------------
On the left...
Back to the Rockers....the best!

Davis Weather Station my backyard in Ashburn: www.stormysweather.com/WxFlash

Forecast Challenge 2016-17 update:

Forecast competition has finished. Results released 3/16 at 8pm
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Jethro Tull
post Feb 8 2017, 05:17 PM
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I was stuck on a line at my liquor store, go figure. I'm at 54 degrees on the south shore of Long Island, and we're under a blizzard watch, but you probably knew that already.

Attached Image


Attached File  CoastalStormBriefing.pdf ( 1.16MB ) Number of downloads: 35
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USCG AST
post Feb 8 2017, 05:17 PM
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QUOTE(Miller A @ Feb 8 2017, 04:59 PM) *
NEVER happens that way. I don't care if its not the "right" model or model range, what I am seeing is that all the models seem to have a consistency to them.

I think it's more an expansion of the precip shield than a shift NW.


--------------------
"We make a living by what we get; we make a life by what we give" -Churchill
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PhillySnowLover
post Feb 8 2017, 05:21 PM
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Any good websites with the RUC model.
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LUCC
post Feb 8 2017, 05:24 PM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 8 2017, 03:34 PM) *
What doesn't make sense is that the models go up to 10 inches for Philly and yet the NWS is conservative with the WSW.

If forecasting were as easy as just basing your forecast on a certain model output everyone could be a met. wink.gif


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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LUCC
post Feb 8 2017, 05:25 PM
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biggrin.gif


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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LUCC
post Feb 8 2017, 05:26 PM
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QUOTE(phils1 @ Feb 8 2017, 03:42 PM) *

Jackpot


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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Kitagrl
post Feb 8 2017, 05:27 PM
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NBC10 news has Philly area through Lower Bucks and Trenton at 4"-8" and NW Philly/Coatesville through middle Bucks and up at that same angle 6"-10".

Might end up being kind of messy since the first several inches will melt.

Said changeover for Philly area won't be until maybe 6am. Temps don't reach fully freezing until around 8am.


--------------------
Midwest transplant always hoping for exciting weather in Philly....
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tool483
post Feb 8 2017, 05:28 PM
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nam and gfs absolutely crush SNE blink.gif blink.gif

Each run has progressively getting more and more precip. . this is going to be fun, aside from driving to work AM and PM commute. PM is going to be a challenge! Thank god for 4 wheel drive!


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