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> California Weather 'El-Lipsis' ..., "Discuss amongst yourselves" Forecasts, guests, and fun
idecline
post Nov 14 2017, 08:21 PM
Post #201




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...nice bit of rainshowers overnight...again we have a large low forming in the GOA...and a tropical link too wink.gif
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 860.48K ) Number of downloads: 0


...this is the IR satellite for a change...visible connection to forming low pressure west of California...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 748.44K ) Number of downloads: 0


...and the WV loop confirms how much moisture is being entrained into this system to our north...the large low pressure in the GOA is spinning like a cog driving cooler air (troughing) southward...in the meanwhile it is augmenting the lift and convective abilities of this first system to pull through the Bay Area tomorrow...many are forecasting heavy rain in coastal mountains because of the high precipitation values in the moisture...

...by Thursday the real fun begins as the entire system to our north sags into the Bay Area...with potential for strong winds and rain into the weekend...hopefully with clearing after that... unsure.gif

...a definite "La Nada" storm... laugh.gif


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Nov 18 2017, 05:09 PM
Post #202




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...many places in the Bay Area saw over an inch of rain in the last storm...Thursday saw moderate rain ...
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 876.56K ) Number of downloads: 0


...clearing was widespread on Friday...and overnight temperatures dropped significantly into Friday night...
...the famous 'ridge of La Nina' is still nowhere to be seen...yes...we have not had a tropical-type link for excessive rainfall this year...the Bay Area is getting it's somewhat normal chances for rainfall...now...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 743.49K ) Number of downloads: 0


...if we look at the WV...not only is troughing starting to again roll over the big blocking high to our west...there looks to be a possible input from some 'tropical players' unsure.gif ( music? )with the next possible strong storm rolling down along the jet stream route made possible by our 'displace' blocker... dry.gif

OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 295.42K ) Number of downloads: 0


...oceanic forecasts clearly show this is going to be a 'doozy'
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 299.36K ) Number of downloads: 0


...with some sub 980mb rocketship taking off towards Alaska(racing the HP for position)...or jettisoned to 'The Great White North' eh...?

...could this begin a pattern change entering the 1st week of December?...

...keep your eyes and ears open...

This post has been edited by idecline: Nov 18 2017, 05:33 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Today, 08:18 PM
Post #203




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...the large storms in the GOA cannot seem to make their way south with the blocking HP causing stagnant progression...so the jet stays to the north and sends pieces of energy into the CONUS up around 50N...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 723.88K ) Number of downloads: 0


...this WV loop looks like we could be having a "atmospheric river" type of situation, (see 2016-2017) but all cliches must come to their 'cul-de-sac'... dry.gif ...the postions of the HP and LP in the GOA are not the same
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 301.18K ) Number of downloads: 0


...so California is just out of reach of much needed rainfall...and if progression of HP does occur into the EPAC?

...idee hints a mid-Winter 'dry' period will be occurring in California in early/mid December...then amplification?


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- Max Planck

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