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> December 15-17 California (West) Pacific Storm, Two troughs could bring rain to California this week
Beck
post Dec 14 2014, 02:33 PM
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Attached Image

Looks like Northern and Central California will get up to .75 in the valleys, and between 1 and 2.5 inches in the foothills, at least judging by the NWS Sacramento forecast discussion. Snow levels are expected to drop to near 4,000 feet, and between 1 and 2 feet of snow is predicted for higher elevations.

Southern California:

From the NWS discussion (San Diego):

QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 AM PST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR...AND A LITTLE WARMER THROUGH MONDAY UNDER A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALOFT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING...BUT
STILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY TUESDAY. A
COLDER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR HEAVIER
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. COOL THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS ENDING...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...
THEN DRY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TO FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

QUOTE
.HYDROLOGY...
FOR THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND WEAKENING FRONT ON TUE...EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS TO ARRIVE ACROSS ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES EARLY
TUE MORNING..AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH
MIDDAY. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS LOOK MINIMAL SO PRELIMINARY RAINFALL
ESTIMATES ARE FOR ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE SAN BERNARDINO
MTS...WITH AROUND ONE-QUARTER TO NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 5500
AND 6000 FEET WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE SAN JACINTO AND SAN BERNARDINO MTS.

SCATTERED...LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLDER TROUGH...THEN EXPECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
TO INCREASE AGAIN WED. THIS EVENT WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE...SO RAIN
AND SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE VARIABLE...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR MORE OF RAIN MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MTS
BY THU MORNING...AND HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 5000 FT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW TO MODERATE WITH THIS EVENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. AVAILABLE PW WILL AGAIN
BE CLOSE TO ONE INCH...SO MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WED
AND WED NIGHT AS WELL. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END THU MORNING.

&&


I'm looking forward to this. This has been a good month so far, rain-wise. El Nino could be generous to us this winter for all we know. What do you all think?


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


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Jet Developer
post Dec 15 2014, 12:16 AM
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This has been a very dead weekend, probably one of the most dead ever. The sunshine has brought everyone back into their hibernation, which is quite the opposite of what happens in nature.

Anyway, I hope we do get some more much needed rain this week, but that there are some sunny periods too. Next Sunday is Winter Solstice, after which they are expecting some offshore flow. Last year had a very similar start to the actual winter season.

This post has been edited by Jet Developer: Dec 15 2014, 12:38 AM


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idecline
post Dec 15 2014, 03:59 AM
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Sorry that I was not able to be on AccuWeather during the storm on 12/11-12/13/14...
I did receive about 6+ inches on Thursday, with the first downpours dropping at least an inch of rain in the first hour or two, then the front stalled and the rain continued into late Thursday night/Friday morning...what a storm it was...

Now...
Attached Image

The 'storm door' is still wide open for Northern California, rain is hitting the North Bay right now, with rain expected in the Santa Cruz area in the next 2-3 hours...this first wave is not much comparatively to the last two systems which brought up to 20" of rain total in some areas of the State...

But if you look at the satellite, the next quick moving trough/storm is aiming right at California, with expected landfall on Wednesday...with the intensity of the last 2 storms in mind, this coming storm on Wednesday could be another very generous rainfall producer for Central and Southern California. The jet stream is already aiming directly at the west coast, and with it's orientation already having proven that the 'storm track' is taking a much more southerly course than it has in the last 3 years, this could be another 'super-charged' system with the rainfall spreading south as the system arrives.

Looking for half an inch to an inch of rain into Monday, with much higher totals by Thursday. wink.gif


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idecline
post Dec 15 2014, 05:02 AM
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Light sprinkles have already arrived in Santa Cruz as of 1:45 am PST Monday morning...
The rain shield is slowly sagging south and we look to be in for some light to moderate rain showers as the day progresses...it doesn't look like this 'storm' has much energy with it...
with the last 2 storms being very heavy rainmakers, this first of two systems looks to be on the lighter side with not much rain to make it into the southern portions of the State.

Mt. Umunhum: Station: KMUX North: 37.1553 East: -121.898 Elev: 3469'

Attached Image

EDIT: Radar loop updated to 5:10am PST...

This post has been edited by idecline: Dec 15 2014, 08:28 AM


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- Max Planck

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Beck
post Dec 15 2014, 04:57 PM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Dec 15 2014, 02:02 AM) *
Light sprinkles have already arrived in Santa Cruz as of 1:45 am PST Monday morning...
The rain shield is slowly sagging south and we look to be in for some light to moderate rain showers as the day progresses...it doesn't look like this 'storm' has much energy with it...
with the last 2 storms being very heavy rainmakers, this first of two systems looks to be on the lighter side with not much rain to make it into the southern portions of the State.

Mt. Umunhum: Station: KMUX North: 37.1553 East: -121.898 Elev: 3469'

Attached Image

EDIT: Radar loop updated to 5:10am PST...

Man, you guys look like you're getting hit hard already. Except for San Jose, who seems to be in a minor rain shadow as usual.

It's overcast here and it has been all day. A lot of condensation this morning registered .01" in my rain gauge. The storm front looks like it's moving fast, so we might get rain down here before midnight.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


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Beck
post Dec 15 2014, 07:40 PM
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This storm is moving fast, although it has less energy than it had earlier today when it was hitting Northern California. The storm front is passing east of Point Conception right now, about to rain on Santa Barbara.



This post has been edited by Beck: Dec 15 2014, 07:42 PM


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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Jet Developer
post Dec 15 2014, 07:50 PM
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QUOTE(Beck @ Dec 15 2014, 01:57 PM) *
Man, you guys look like you're getting hit hard already. Except for San Jose, who seems to be in a minor rain shadow as usual.

It's overcast here and it has been all day. A lot of condensation this morning registered .01" in my rain gauge. The storm front looks like it's moving fast, so we might get rain down here before midnight.


I actually think it's moving very slow, if I watch the satellite loop. Also it got sunny for a few hours but now it's clouded up again. It could see the area of thinner clouds hanging just off the coast since this morning before it finally reached us earlier this afternoon.


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idecline
post Dec 16 2014, 03:30 AM
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The SF Bay Area got another surprising amount of rain from what looked like a fairly weak front...
Boulder Creek in the Santa Cruz Mountains got about another 1.5" of rain with the heaviest amounts about 5-7 am...the focus of heavier rainfall amounts seem to be confined to small zone of the most intense pulse of the storm...
Attached Image
Attached Image

Again Northern California had an 'over-performing' storm provide a decent amount of rainfall.
The rain had been steady all morning, when about 7:00am PST a big squall line moved through Monterey Bay. Winds were shaking the palm trees by the ocean very vigorously, as heavy rain moved across the area...SPC reported a high wind gust near Monterey later in the day, it knocked down a tree on 17-mile drive near the famous golf courses of the Monterey peninsula(i.e.: Pebble Beach)...Again augmentation from the warmer ocean waters (+PDO) and a quick moving low-level jet provided a lot of instability and very gusty winds...

Now for round two on Tuesday into Wednesday...


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- Max Planck

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Beck
post Dec 16 2014, 04:44 AM
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The storm front completely died east of Ventura. All that's left on the radar is a few green specks floating around L.A. and near Catalina. I guess the NWS should cancel all those Flash Flood Warnings for us, and their dated forecast discussion that said "rain may be heavy at times overnight". Not a drop here or within 70 miles of here, according to CNRFC.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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Jet Developer
post Dec 16 2014, 09:54 AM
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QUOTE(Beck @ Dec 16 2014, 01:44 AM) *
The storm front completely died east of Ventura. All that's left on the radar is a few green specks floating around L.A. and near Catalina. I guess the NWS should cancel all those Flash Flood Warnings for us, and their dated forecast discussion that said "rain may be heavy at times overnight". Not a drop here or within 70 miles of here, according to CNRFC.


Yep, I noticed it was awfully quiet and dry this morning, but it looks like something is trying to move ashore right now. It probably won't amount to more than 0.05" in most places if and even that may be taking it too far.


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FrostFuzz
post Dec 16 2014, 12:14 PM
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There is some lightning offshore looking at the lightning map. Convective parameters are decent, maybe a thunderstorm or to makes it over land.


--------------------
My Precip Total '16-'17: 13.73"


'13-'14: 4.36"
'14-'15: 6.24"
'15-'16: 7.97"

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Jet Developer
post Dec 16 2014, 08:40 PM
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I got a nice little shower while on a walk this afternoon, but it was probably nothing more than a trace or 0.01".


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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 16 2014, 09:04 PM
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QUOTE(FrostFuzz @ Dec 16 2014, 12:14 PM) *
There is some lightning offshore looking at the lightning map. Convective parameters are decent, maybe a thunderstorm or to makes it over land.



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FrostFuzz
post Dec 17 2014, 01:44 AM
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From the LA/Oxnard Weather Discussion
QUOTE
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO A SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF
PALOS VERDES PENINSULA...THERE WAS LIGHT FLOW WHICH MEANT STORMS
WERE SLOW MOVING. A PARTICULARLY STRONG CLUSTER OF SLOW MOVING STORMS
DEVELOPED OVER TORRANCE AND NEARBY COMMUNITIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE TORRANCE
AREA...WHERE DANGEROUS ROADWAY FLOODING TRAPPED SOME VEHICLES.
DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN IMPRESSIVE
RAINFALL INTENSITY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR! AN AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATION IN TORRANCE ALSO REPORTED A STORM TOTAL THAT EXCEEDED 3
INCHES.

LATEST 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN AREA OF GOOD INSTABILITY
AND CAPE OVER COASTAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. IN FACT...LIFTED INDEX VALUES BETWEEN -3 AND -4 ARE BEING
PICKED UP BETWEEN PALOS VERDES AND CATALINA ISLAND...WITH CAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG FOR THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS A RESULT...THE LOS ANGELES COASTAL ZONE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE AREA WITH GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORM
CELLS...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE URBAN ROADWAY FLOODING OVER THE
LA BASIN. 00Z NAM ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILE THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OFF THE COAST OF LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...
NONE OF THE STORM CELLS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN A THREAT TO
THE COLBY AND SPRINGS BURN AREAS...BUT THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.


That's some pretty impressive rainfall in Torrance. The San Diego office also mentioned it, which is what initially caught my attention. I got about .05" here. I'd need to double check but it was around that.


--------------------
My Precip Total '16-'17: 13.73"


'13-'14: 4.36"
'14-'15: 6.24"
'15-'16: 7.97"

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idecline
post Dec 17 2014, 03:45 AM
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The SF Bay Area continues to be the main focus of these 'systems' that are being propelled into the West Coast by the strong Pacific jet stream. The Bay Area was hit by heavy downpours again on Tuesday afternoon (beginning about 4pm in my area), that lasted well into evening hours. We again got over an inch of rain for the date, whereas in the last 3 years, any of these storms would have been much less productive. The atmospheric changes and oceanic changes from last year have had a significant impact on Northern California's rainfall. The radio stated that San Jose,CA is at 750% of 'normal' rainfall for the month of December...only halfway through the month.
Of course as is 'usual' in California, extreme weather events are more the 'norm' here than many other places...California has always had periods of dry leading to drought and extreme wet periods leading to flooding and mudslides. The influence of La Nina and El Nino's greatly effect the weather here, we do not have a 'usual' Winter pattern with any consistency, some years big storms bring the bulk of the rainfall, other years small little storms bring some rain, and at times it can feel like a desert as we get periods of nearly no precipitation for long periods...

Blah, Blah, Blah rolleyes.gif

OKay here's the local rainfall from boulder-creek.com
Attached Image

Not bad...nearly 9" in the last week... smile.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Dec 17 2014, 03:47 AM


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idecline
post Dec 17 2014, 05:08 AM
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I see stars!!! The first clear night in a long time in Santa Cruz...no fog, and the rain clouds have cleared...

rolleyes.gif For now...
Attached Image

A brief respite from the rain for NorCal tonight as the next 'shorty' looms just to our NW...this next packet of energy is heading south and should impact California on Wednesday.The system behind that looks to be 'mature' and is heading towards Alaska and Canada. Another system is lurking out near the Aleutians but may have a more Northerly track after the mature storm moves into Canada (leaving the weakness in the atmosphere aligned with a more northerly storm track). A ridge should build across the NE Pacific until the next trough pulls in around the end of the month...


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- Max Planck

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Beck
post Dec 17 2014, 11:04 AM
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Some rain fell here early this morning, of course it was when I was asleep....so I missed it. Got 0.19" out of it. Doesn't look like much else is left.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


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Jet Developer
post Dec 17 2014, 12:17 PM
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Last 2 "storms" were disappointing here. The Tuesday storm gave only a trace to John Wayne Airport and last night's front did bring some heavy rain, but it was probably no more than 15 minutes and things were already drying out by sunrise. John Wayne Airport got a pathetic 0.10" from the 2 fronts combined.


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Beck
post Dec 17 2014, 02:40 PM
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QUOTE(Jet Developer @ Dec 17 2014, 09:17 AM) *
Last 2 "storms" were disappointing here. The Tuesday storm gave only a trace to John Wayne Airport and last night's front did bring some heavy rain, but it was probably no more than 15 minutes and things were already drying out by sunrise. John Wayne Airport got a pathetic 0.10" from the 2 fronts combined.

I agree, these two storms were rather pathetic for Southern California this week. Both storms horribly underperformed in most areas. I got a measly .03" out of leftovers from the first one, and .19" this morning. It is sprinkling right now though.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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Dave_H
post Dec 17 2014, 03:15 PM
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On Catalina we got .07" Monday night and Tuesday Morning, and exactly .5" today.
The rain didn't start until 2:30am but for a short period of time was heavy with thunder and lightning.
I saw 3 or 4 flashes of lightning and one burst of thunder rattled my windows and woke up the whole town.

Very disappointed we didn't get more, our water situation was very serious going into this winter and we need a lot more to be able to make it through next year.

Thanks to everyone for your predictions, comments, and insight. Although the California topics may not have as many posts as in the years past, all your posts and input are read and appreciated by many.

Dave
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