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> December 23-24 NE/midatl Christmas Magic Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
MD Blue Ridge
post Dec 20 2016, 03:35 PM
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I did this on my phone before Clapper could jinx. I posted cms/gfs empirical evidence in MJ's clippah thread. Someone please transfer to this thread or I will later in the evening.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Dec 20 2016, 03:36 PM


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JDClapper
post Dec 20 2016, 03:37 PM
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Some quick links

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2160382

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2160387

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2160436


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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MD Blue Ridge
post Dec 20 2016, 03:51 PM
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Long range NAM sure looks spunky at hr84.


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JDClapper
post Dec 20 2016, 04:14 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Dec 20 2016, 03:51 PM) *
Long range NAM sure looks spunky at hr84.


Who knows .. might pull a rabbit out of hat miracle on this one.. *shrugs* Cool, thanks.

hr 84 18z 12k NAM

Attached Image


Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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JDClapper
post Dec 20 2016, 04:28 PM
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Looking back at the Monday 0z run(s) that caused my Twitter feed to be down right obnoxious on Monday.. the Pacific energy (eventually the big midwest storm) was picking up the SW cut-off on those runs.


Attached Image


So many great members on here have taught me that those SW cut-offs are extremely hard on models .. well, instead of being picked up by the Pacific Energy, it is increasingly being modeled as being kicked along and scooted to the east as a seperate entity .. this is what the models seem to be entertaining on the 12z suite as a last minute possible surprise for us out here...


Attached Image


Here's hoping ... but obviously, no guarantees. Those SW cut-offs are hard to model. wink.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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JDClapper
post Dec 20 2016, 04:30 PM
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Quick link.. just hold and drag the time bar... watch that SW energy being kicked along .. and then for comparison, flip to the model run MOnday 0z and see..

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo....99999828636649


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Undertakerson
post Dec 20 2016, 04:39 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 20 2016, 04:28 PM) *
Looking back at the Monday 0z run(s) that caused my Twitter feed to be down right obnoxious on Monday.. the Pacific energy (eventually the big midwest storm) was picking up the SW cut-off on those runs.


Attached Image


So many great members on here have taught me that those SW cut-offs are extremely hard on models .. well, instead of being picked up by the Pacific Energy, it is increasingly being modeled as being kicked along and scooted to the east as a seperate entity .. this is what the models seem to be entertaining on the 12z suite as a last minute possible surprise for us out here...


Attached Image


Here's hoping ... but obviously, no guarantees. Those SW cut-offs are hard to model. wink.gif

Yep - perhaps the most difficult of all features to model is the dreaded SW ULL. At times, they can be the base of a block, at others- they become a kicker mechanism - and still others, somewhere between the two.

Look no further than the Monday WPC Extended discussion for evidence.

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1210 AM EST MON DEC 19 2016

VALID 12Z THU DEC 22 2016 - 12Z MON DEC 26 2016

...OVERVIEW...

UPPER RIDGING IN THE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC SUPPORTS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY SW OF CALIFORNIA PRESENTS A FORECAST
CHALLENGE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.


...GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

A FEW DAYS AGO, THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES WERE SPLIT ON BRINGING A
CLOSED LOW INITIALLY SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA BACK TO THE EAST
THROUGH EITHER NORTHERN MEXICO OR THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THEY THEY
ALL TRENDED WELL OFFSHORE AND LEFT THE CLOSED LOW TO DISSIPATE IN
PLACE. THE RECENT 12Z/18 RUNS SHIFTED BACK EAST A BIT AND WAS
ENOUGH FOR SOME MEMBERS, INCLUDING THE 12Z ECMWF, TO BE PICKED UP
BY THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND FLUNG INTO THE SOUTHWEST
. THE 12Z
CANADIAN WAS SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. THE UKMET AND
GFS (OPERATIONAL AND PARALLEL) WERE SLOWER/WEAKER AND FARTHER
SOUTH AS IT DRIFTS INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. REGARDLESS, THE MODELS
SHOW UPSTREAM VORTICITY DIVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY,
ENCOMPASSING WHAT WOULD BE LEFT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW
OR OPEN WAVE. GIVEN THE ONGOING PREFERENCE, OPTED TO FAVOR THE
12Z/18Z GFS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES
LARGELY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF, BUT AT LEAST SHOWED THE E-W SPREAD IN
CLOSED LOW TRACKS (SOME OF WHICH WERE WEST OF THE GFS).
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JDClapper
post Dec 20 2016, 04:43 PM
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Some 12z Suite fun .. 7am Christmas Eve morning..

GFS
Attached Image


CMC
Attached Image


NAVGEM
Attached Image


Euro
Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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JDClapper
post Dec 20 2016, 04:47 PM
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Last 4 runs of GFS at 7pm Thursday .. notice it's trending more open as the runs go along... seems to be good for us.. we'll see where 18z takes us..

Click for animation

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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JDClapper
post Dec 20 2016, 05:03 PM
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18z, 7am Christmas Eve

Fairly similiar surface, maybe a bit more precip (not much) .. it does appear the SW cut-off ejected a little quicker than 12z .. interested to see how 0z comes in, with more updated samples.

18z top, 12z bot

Attached Image

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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Undertakerson
post Dec 20 2016, 05:04 PM
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Saturnalia miracle hope kept alive on 18z

Attached Image


Attached Image


COMPARE to 12z

Attached Image



Attached Image



This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Dec 20 2016, 05:07 PM
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JDClapper
post Dec 20 2016, 05:09 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 20 2016, 05:04 PM) *
Saturnalia miracle hope kept alive on 18z


I feel the need to stress, I am not expecting some 3-6" miracle on this one.. really just following along and hoping for that fresh dusting/coating of snow to "set the mood" for the jolly guy.

That is all.. smile.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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Undertakerson
post Dec 20 2016, 05:24 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 20 2016, 05:09 PM) *
I feel the need to stress, I am not expecting some 3-6" miracle on this one.. really just following along and hoping for that fresh dusting/coating of snow to "set the mood" for the jolly guy.

That is all.. smile.gif

Difficult to pin too much hope on a relatively last minute idea from the models. It did happen a few years ago though that a weak system, not on all models, showed up in short range and put down a few inches even down here in Hbg.

But have to agree, we're looking at ambiance snow, at best - for most. Would be kind of cool for the kiddies, and of course, to grease the runners on the big guy's sleigh. tongue.gif
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Undertakerson
post Dec 20 2016, 06:09 PM
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Oh? CTP chimes in

unsure.gif
QUOTE
000
FXUS61 KCTP 202109
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
409 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and seasonable weather will continue into midweek with a
gradually milder trend expected through Christmas weekend.
Thursday will be breezy with a period of snow showers likely over
the Northwest Alleghenies. A period of light mixed precipitation
remains possible on Christmas Eve.
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MD Blue Ridge
post Dec 20 2016, 06:52 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 20 2016, 06:09 PM) *
Oh? CTP chimes in

unsure.gif


I wish CTP's acknowledgment give our little hope credence. I'm afraid it's the opposite.


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JDClapper
post Dec 20 2016, 07:03 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Dec 20 2016, 06:52 PM) *
I wish CTP's acknowledgment give our little hope credence. I'm afraid it's the opposite.

Unfortunately, Tommy C on WNEP also mentioned the chance. I didnt even open this thread and it is doomed.

Next will be a big daddy hat coming out. Blah.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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KENNYP2339
post Dec 20 2016, 07:20 PM
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I'll jinx it right now... "Hey Rob, can you do a print out for KFWN, KMPO, and ABE please"
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MD Blue Ridge
post Dec 20 2016, 07:21 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 20 2016, 07:03 PM) *
Unfortunately, Tommy C on WNEP also mentioned the chance. I didnt even open this thread and it is doomed.

Next will be a big daddy hat coming out. Blah.


Oh no, we're all doomed. I thought I was the only one watching wink.gif


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NorEaster07
post Dec 20 2016, 07:45 PM
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Taunton

QUOTE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
703 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2016

Friday and Saturday...

Strong subsidence and drying thru the column Thu ngt into Fri behind
departing short wave Thu. Thus expecting dry weather this period.
Modest CAA behind the front will only yield to seasonably cold temps
with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s Fri. Fast upper air
pattern results in next mid level trough moving across the area
Saturday. Modest low level WAA Sat across the region should support
highs in the 40s...possibly near 50 across southeast MA. Although
guidance showing lots of clouds around Sat as models have trended
toward better moisture advection associated with this trough. In
fact 12z EC/GEFS and 00z EPS have trended toward higher pops. Thus a
low risk for a few rain showers (possibly snow showers inland).
However looks like a minor qpf event.


Christmas...

Dry weather expected and as mentioned above the trend will be for
cooler temps Christmas but not as cold as the GFS and its ensembles
are suggesting. A model blend offers highs in the lower 40s...upper
30s inland including the high terrain
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MD Blue Ridge
post Dec 20 2016, 08:10 PM
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At least according to last couple GFS runs so much for the torch around Christmas. In excited for the 00z runs for maybe T-1" of snow, Clapper I might even make it through GFS run tonite.


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