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> March 22-23, 2017 MidAtl/NE Storm, Possibility - Short Term Forecasts D1+
Undertakerson
post Mar 18 2017, 05:07 PM
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Maybe this doesn't provide much fireworks, but this has been looking a bit more of a threat with each passing model run.

I'll just show the 18z GFS for illustrative purpose, prev runs have been more south, but have come back north in increments.

Just thought we might need this space, eventually.


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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Yesterday, 03:17 AM
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SnowMan11
post Mar 18 2017, 09:13 PM
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It keeps trending northward. I would watch that especially with cold air in place.


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phillyfan
post Mar 18 2017, 10:57 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 18 2017, 10:13 PM) *
It keeps trending northward. I would watch that especially with cold air in place.

Essentially the same on the 0z run, just a very slight south tick:


This post has been edited by phillyfan: Mar 18 2017, 10:57 PM


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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Undertakerson
post Mar 19 2017, 12:06 PM
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SREFs for my region show a "mixy" situation

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

Maybe a coating, depending on time of day.
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shane o mac
post Mar 19 2017, 12:11 PM
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This is interesting models have come north in runs , perhaps this could clip some areas .. we need the first system to move before we can get a handle on this system .
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Ryan Duff
post Mar 19 2017, 01:08 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 19 2017, 01:06 PM) *
SREFs for my region show a "mixy" situation

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

Maybe a coating, depending on time of day.


Also a handy reminder you can bookmark/link a specific station by adding SID=xxx in the url

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/?SID=HAR (for Harrisburg)

You can also add a link to default button with PRM=button label.

So Ptype-POP for Harrisburg becomes


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplu...p;PRM=Ptype-POP


I recently discovered these when poking around the help/credits link on the page. Created a bookmark so I didn't have to select a site and parameter every time. cool.gif


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RobB
post Mar 19 2017, 01:15 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Mar 19 2017, 02:08 PM) *
Also a handy reminder you can bookmark/link a specific station by adding SID=xxx in the url

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/?SID=HAR (for Harrisburg)

You can also add a link to default button with PRM=button label.

So Ptype-POP for Harrisburg becomes
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplu...p;PRM=Ptype-POP
I recently discovered these when poking around the help/credits link on the page. Created a bookmark so I didn't have to select a site and parameter every time. cool.gif



Rocking!

Also note to keep the 3 letter city designation capitalized..Actually case sensitive.

Thanks for the tip, Ryan...

This post has been edited by RobB: Mar 19 2017, 01:29 PM
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SnowMan11
post Mar 19 2017, 06:13 PM
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This threat isnt really a threat for anyone


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JDClapper
post Mar 19 2017, 07:40 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 18 2017, 10:13 PM) *
It keeps trending northward. I would watch that especially with cold air in place.



QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 19 2017, 07:13 PM) *
This threat isnt really a threat for anyone


Cool, thanks.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Storms R us
post Mar 19 2017, 07:58 PM
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Agree not a threat to those in the areas MD/DC and north as it's seems to be suppressed south by the 18z GFS.

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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 19 2017, 09:11 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 19 2017, 08:40 PM) *
Cool, thanks.


My daughter did inform me that she made her "end of season freezer snowman this morning" has been pretty good at getting the last one. I'll post pics tomorrow.


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jdrenken
post Mar 20 2017, 12:13 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 19 2017, 07:40 PM) *
Cool, thanks.


Amazing how one day can change one's mind. wink.gif

EDIT: A time period of less than 12 hours!


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risingriver
post Mar 20 2017, 10:22 AM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 19 2017, 07:13 PM) *
This threat isnt really a threat for anyone


There's always next year. sad.gif I mean, DT declared snow chances done for east of the Mississippi outside of northern NE and areas of high elevation.


Doubt this would do much across NOVA. If the Sleetstorm of the Century couldn't do much, a little Clipper action might flake off some dandruff. I'm ready for spring to return.

Maybe some grassy surface accumulations, but with surface temps well above freezing, about the only transportation impacts might be bridges and overpasses early in the AM.

This post has been edited by risingriver: Mar 20 2017, 10:25 AM
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NorEaster07
post Today, 08:53 AM
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March 22, snow is flying out there...


Watch the batch of snow come down into CT then dry up before getting to the coast. Waterbury station reported moderate snow for a little.

Those arrows at the end are wind damage reports. Tree and wires fell on a School Bus Country Club Road in Avon



Also, Binghamton having their snowiest season on record adding a little more again today.

5:45-9:45am loop



--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Today, 09:02 AM
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Picked up between 1/4"-1/2" but the real story is the cold/wind, absolutely brutal out , roads are a sheet of ice.

20 degree drop overnight..

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This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Today, 09:08 AM


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current (Avg 176.7")


2016-2017 Snowfall 159.4"(as of 3/18)
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

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