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> Long Range Summer 2018 Outlooks and Discussions, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends, excitement, and mor
RobB
post Jul 6 2018, 10:31 AM
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Meteorological summer so far IMBY:



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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 6 2018, 12:30 PM
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What a summer it's been already. Still no sign of it letting up for a prolonged period of time in the next 10-15 days.

Will probably be another heat wave (potentially major) a little after mid-July if Hurricane Maria strikes China



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jul 6 2018, 12:30 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Ahoff
post Jul 6 2018, 04:15 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 6 2018, 01:30 PM) *
What a summer it's been already. Still no sign of it letting up for a prolonged period of time in the next 10-15 days.

Will probably be another heat wave (potentially major) a little after mid-July if Hurricane Maria strikes China



Fun. Our church's festival starts on July 18th, and last year we had highs flirting with 90 and dew points in the low to mid 70s, could we be in for a repeat or worse? Running around in it isn't too fun, but we'll see.

This post has been edited by Ahoff: Jul 7 2018, 08:14 AM
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jdrenken
post Jul 6 2018, 11:14 PM
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Why on earth do I have to explain this on twitter?


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weather_boy2010
post Jul 7 2018, 09:56 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 6 2018, 12:30 PM) *
What a summer it's been already. Still no sign of it letting up for a prolonged period of time in the next 10-15 days.

Will probably be another heat wave (potentially major) a little after mid-July if Hurricane Maria strikes China



Ugh. Looks like a near certainty it will strike China around the 10th/11th, which would correlate to the heat wave around the 17th/18th.

I know each to their own, and for those of you that enjoy this summertime heat, I am happy for you, but I have to say... I am really, really, REALLY ready for fall/winter right about now!
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weather_boy2010
post Jul 7 2018, 10:00 AM
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Jul 7 2018, 09:56 AM) *
Ugh. Looks like a near certainty it will strike China around the 10th/11th, which would correlate to the heat wave around the 17th/18th.

I know each to their own, and for those of you that enjoy this summertime heat, I am happy for you, but I have to say... I am really, really, REALLY ready for fall/winter right about now!


And actually, that could be quite a prolonged heat wave as the ridging anchored over South Korea and southern Japan looks to stick around for a 5-7+ day stretch...
Attached File  gefs_z500a_5d_npac_37.png ( 139.95K ) Number of downloads: 1

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jdrenken
post Jul 7 2018, 11:38 AM
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Jul 7 2018, 10:00 AM) *
And actually, that could be quite a prolonged heat wave as the ridging anchored over South Korea and southern Japan looks to stick around for a 5-7+ day stretch...
Attached File  gefs_z500a_5d_npac_37.png ( 139.95K ) Number of downloads: 1


One thing that you have to remember is that with a range of dates, there can be frontal passages to at least bring it back to climo for a time. Something that was tweeted to me...
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QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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weather_boy2010
post Jul 7 2018, 03:15 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jul 7 2018, 11:38 AM) *
One thing that you have to remember is that with a range of dates, there can be frontal passages to at least bring it back to climo for a time. Something that was tweeted to me...


Good point, and thank goodness. I can't wait to start tracking the big troughs and cold fronts a few months from now.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 7 2018, 11:00 PM
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Jul 7 2018, 11:00 AM) *
And actually, that could be quite a prolonged heat wave as the ridging anchored over South Korea and southern Japan looks to stick around for a 5-7+ day stretch...
Attached File  gefs_z500a_5d_npac_37.png ( 139.95K ) Number of downloads: 1

Another thing to point out is the enhanced Pacific jet. Raging Pacific jet is a phrase more suited for winter, so I'll leave that there, but I believe a stretched/enhanced jet also supports an incoming warm spell.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 8 2018, 09:21 PM
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unsure.gif



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 9 2018, 05:55 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 8 2018, 10:21 PM) *
unsure.gif



Wow talk about off the charts type of stuff. 97/85 thats some other level stuff right there lol but I, I know you know, usually like to take a third of CAPE off the modeled run output tends to be an idealized situation that never pans out that way but large cape none the less!


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NorEaster07
post Jul 9 2018, 06:25 AM
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Here are the temp departures for the 1st week of July.

Caribou is +7.5 above normal for the month so far
Hartford is +5.5 above normal
Bangor is +5.0 above normal
Portland is +5.2 above normal
Bridgeport is +3.3 above normal


I'm guessing we end July above normal. Would have to be some crazy cold for it to end up below normal.

Attached File  temps33.jpg ( 123.43K ) Number of downloads: 0


Lucky Northeast..

Attached File  temps34.jpg ( 99.86K ) Number of downloads: 0



Here's a fun look at the temp departures from normal the 1st week of each month this year. (Not actual temps).

Attached File  temps36.jpg ( 662.08K ) Number of downloads: 1


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Ahoff
post Jul 9 2018, 06:24 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 8 2018, 10:21 PM) *
unsure.gif



I see these posted here all the time, and have no idea what they mean? Should have asked sooner, but never did, lol!
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jul 9 2018, 09:28 AM
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QUOTE(Ahoff @ Jul 9 2018, 07:24 AM) *
I see these posted here all the time, and have no idea what they mean? Should have asked sooner, but never did, lol!

This link has good information regarding basics of skew-t diagrams. The nitty gritty of this diagram is to show how temperature (red line above) and dew point (green line above) temperatures change vertically over a given point.

This type of diagram is great for understanding what weather is happening or may happen (situational examples).

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Jul 9 2018, 09:29 AM


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StL weatherjunki...
post Jul 9 2018, 09:31 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 8 2018, 10:21 PM) *
unsure.gif


Dew points are quite suspicious, maybe taken near a coastline?

Also dew points are mixing vertically meaning initiation is very unlikely.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jul 9 2018, 09:34 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 9 2018, 06:55 AM) *
Wow talk about off the charts type of stuff. 97/85 thats some other level stuff right there lol but I, I know you know, usually like to take a third of CAPE off the modeled run output tends to be an idealized situation that never pans out that way but large cape none the less!

MUCAPE values on these soundings are calculated based on virtual temperatures, which is an idealized situation (note how the white parcel line starts well to the right of surface temperature). These small adjustments can make a big difference in calculating the area under the curve (i.e. CAPE) and this situation is particularly exaggerated by the virtual temperature adjustment due to 85F dew point.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Jul 9 2018, 09:36 AM


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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idecline
post Jul 9 2018, 06:21 PM
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...here is an update from Japan...story on AccuWeather...https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...s-week/70005441

QUOTE
Japan: Dry, warm weather to follow historic flooding, aid recovery efforts this week
International Weather
By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
July 09, 2018, 12:50:23 PM EDT

At least 126 people are dead, dozens others missing and millions affected after major and historic flooding struck Japan from late Thursday into Sunday.

The hardest hit areas included Hiroshima Prefecture, Okayama and Ehime where more than 100 of the deaths occurred, according to The Japan Times.

Across the country, evacuation orders or advisories were sent to 6.3 million people prior to the worst of the flooding. Rounds of heavy rain triggered widespread major flooding across western and central Japan.

The severe flooding resulted as tropical moisture streamed across Japan following the departure of Typhoon Prapiroon, which unloaded rounds of heavy rain last week.

The rain shattered records ranging from one-hour amounts to three-day totals.

The 84.5 mm (3.33 inches) that poured down in one hour on Friday in Ureshino broke the previous one-hour rain record from June 19, 2008. Mt. Ontakeyama in Nagano Prefecture topped the new records list for three-day rainfall totals with 655.5 mm (25.81 inches).

Some areas are expected to remain submerged by floodwaters for more than a week.

Attached File  download.jpg ( 24.98K ) Number of downloads: 0


...let's see what this unusually active Pacific Jet extension does to the weather in the CONUS in the next week or so...
Attached File  rb.jpg ( 126.55K ) Number of downloads: 1


...a lot of moisture is entrained in this 'cycle'...looks to travel along the US/Canada border... blink.gif

...extreme weather...(and HP acting very aggressively)...seem to be the new normal?...hotter Earth...larger High Pressure domes...just a question to think about...(that and weather enthusiasts preoccupation with 'storms and low pressure...even though high pressure encompasses a much larger share of the atmosphere)...


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 9 2018, 11:51 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jul 9 2018, 10:31 AM) *
Dew points are quite suspicious, maybe taken near a coastline?

Also dew points are mixing vertically meaning initiation is very unlikely.

Quite the opposite. It was near Omaha... I think slightly northeast.

I thought the irony of GFS showing 85F dew point was amusing tongue.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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NWOhioChaser
post Jul 10 2018, 01:56 PM
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Starting to get abnormally dry conditions here and there in MBY. Some small patches of brown showing up in yards. It's been a while since we've had a good soaker.

EDIT: I forgot to mention that Toledo has now surpassed last summer in days of 90* or above. Hit 93* today with DP of 68*. That makes #16

This post has been edited by NWOhioChaser: Jul 11 2018, 12:00 AM
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Ahoff
post Jul 10 2018, 07:02 PM
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If I don't see any more rain, that would be A-Okay with me.
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