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> Nov 19 - 20, 2017 MidAtl/NE Cold Air, Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECASTS
NorEaster07
post Nov 14 2017, 02:18 PM
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Here we go again? Left a " ? " because it looks to be more than a few days.. NAO should be negative compared to previous blast.

Arctic Blast #1 Nov 9-11, 2017

QUOTE
National Weather Service New York NY
106 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Ridging returns behind the cold front later Thu with dry and
seasonable weather through Fri. This is where the forecast
starts to become uncertain, although the GFS is typically faster
to shift the ridge axis east. Thus, have sided with the slower
EC and have delayed onset of pcpn to late Fri Night/Sat morning.

The GFS is also more amplified as a piece of the polar vortex
in northern Canada breaks off with a cutoff low developing over
SE Canada over the weekend
.


At any rate, both are in agreement
that the energy from the aforementioned trough moving onshore
out west merges with that dropping down from Canada, but timing
is off. There is about a 24 hr difference of this occurring between
the EC and GFS. It does appear that part of the weekend will be
wet (and perhaps some snow inland) and then blustery behind the
system into early next week, but way too early for specifics.


NAO

Attached Image


Euro12z Monday 20th 850mb Temp Anomaly


Attached Image



Wednesday 22nd


Attached Image


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Yesterday, 09:33 PM
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so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 14 2017, 02:31 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 14 2017, 04:18 PM) *
Here we go again? Left a " ? " because it looks to be more than a few days.. NAO should be negative compared to previous blast.

Arctic Blast #1 Nov 9-11, 2017
NAO

Attached Image
Euro12z Monday 20th 850mb Temp Anomaly


Attached Image

Wednesday 22nd


Attached Image


-nao and the -ao to help lock it for a little. Unfortunately it looks to go topsy turvy in about a week and a half. So probably have an end date around the end of the month. It should stay brief but that remains to be seen as ideas of a warm december are starting to enter the picture, im not so sure about this idea yet depends honestly on how things progress with nina and if we see the PDO drop or if the nao and ao stay relatively negative. Gonna be one of those tricky years.


--------------------
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Millersville University


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NorEaster07
post Nov 14 2017, 04:53 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Nov 14 2017, 03:31 PM) *
-nao and the -ao to help lock it for a little. Unfortunately it looks to go topsy turvy in about a week and a half. So probably have an end date around the end of the month..


Looks like it, but since its over 10 days away I dont have enough confidence that it would end. Will keep tabs on it.

Kinda funny cause the previous blast really only was 1-2 days worth of extreme cold but yet we been below normal here for past 7 days since it. We should of just continued with that thread. Lol

Couple Accu graphics..


Attached Image



Attached Image
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KSpring1
post Nov 14 2017, 05:41 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Nov 14 2017, 03:31 PM) *
-nao and the -ao to help lock it for a little. Unfortunately it looks to go topsy turvy in about a week and a half. So probably have an end date around the end of the month. It should stay brief but that remains to be seen as ideas of a warm december are starting to enter the picture, im not so sure about this idea yet depends honestly on how things progress with nina and if we see the PDO drop or if the nao and ao stay relatively negative. Gonna be one of those tricky years.




Yeah - weird 'cause we never got the 'bounce-back' warm-up .... we've stayed cloudy, dreary, drizzly -- blah.


Also weird that these maps all show exact opposite of what long range at noaa predicted in late Oct/early Nov. It was warm EC, cold WC as far as the eye could see. Then it flipped on a dime (predictions) and it's been stuck there ever since.

We should be in mid 60s ....

I'd just like SOME days to look forward to!! ..... sad.gif blink.gif


--------------------
*************
82 degrees in Richmond - Feb 12

*************
We are deep into Solar Spring :-)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
February blooming: crocuses (2/4), flowering trees(2/15), maple trees(2/18), daffodils, hyacinths(2/24). forsythia(2/24)
When the heck are those first hickory buds going to sprout??!! ..... (I swore it'd be in Feb ... still waiting!!)
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KSpring1
post Nov 14 2017, 05:55 PM
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QUOTE(KSpring1 @ Nov 14 2017, 06:41 PM) *
Yeah - weird 'cause we never got the 'bounce-back' warm-up .... we've stayed cloudy, dreary, drizzly -- blah.
Also weird that these maps all show exact opposite of what long range at noaa predicted in late Oct/early Nov. It was warm EC, cold WC as far as the eye could see. Then it flipped on a dime (predictions) and it's been stuck there ever since.

We should be in mid 60s ....

I'd just like SOME days to look forward to!! ..... sad.gif blink.gif



Just a reminder -- I was so happy looking at these maps 2 wks ago! ...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/


--------------------
*************
82 degrees in Richmond - Feb 12

*************
We are deep into Solar Spring :-)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
February blooming: crocuses (2/4), flowering trees(2/15), maple trees(2/18), daffodils, hyacinths(2/24). forsythia(2/24)
When the heck are those first hickory buds going to sprout??!! ..... (I swore it'd be in Feb ... still waiting!!)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 14 2017, 06:03 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 14 2017, 06:53 PM) *
Looks like it, but since its over 10 days away I dont have enough confidence that it would end. Will keep tabs on it.

Kinda funny cause the previous blast really only was 1-2 days worth of extreme cold but yet we been below normal here for past 7 days since it. We should of just continued with that thread. Lol

Couple Accu graphics..


Attached Image



Attached Image


Yea we have stayed relatively cool overall. I think it is due to displacement from where we were before with our high pressure/ridging set up. We are definitely further north with the high pressure systems and allowing little pieces of energy to scoot underneath which has allowed for a cooler period when normally we would see that bounce back in temps. Low level clouds and fog have been the name of the game down here for a good bit of this month outside those blips where we negative height anoms in the region.

The wave train if you will has been fairly flatlined since about the 5th of this month. When do get systems that want to buckle the jet ridge pattern we develop easterly flow and bring in the clouds ahead of the front the front goes through and cold again. I think the smidgen of the western ridge is having an influence on this pattern. Storms have been flying up into the Pac NW and western canada lately so not much digging into the west. That should change down the road, as some see it to be december.

QUOTE(KSpring1 @ Nov 14 2017, 07:41 PM) *
Yeah - weird 'cause we never got the 'bounce-back' warm-up .... we've stayed cloudy, dreary, drizzly -- blah.
Also weird that these maps all show exact opposite of what long range at noaa predicted in late Oct/early Nov. It was warm EC, cold WC as far as the eye could see. Then it flipped on a dime (predictions) and it's been stuck there ever since.

We should be in mid 60s ....

I'd just like SOME days to look forward to!! ..... sad.gif blink.gif


Haha well yea those days are far between right now especially with a possible -nao/-ao combo coming about the storm idea for me is not quite there, usually pops up within 5 days of timing it should hit. As I stated above the idea is for things to change up a bit as we move into december but that is anyones guess to what may occur.


--------------------
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B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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NorEaster07
post Nov 14 2017, 06:03 PM
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QUOTE(KSpring1 @ Nov 14 2017, 06:55 PM) *
Just a reminder -- I was so happy looking at these maps 2 wks ago! ...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/


Lol. November isnt over. We just need 1 week of torch and that forecast will be right. Lol but something tells me getting that to happen will be tough...

GFS18z. Classic Pop...Drop for next week

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MD Blue Ridge
post Nov 14 2017, 08:47 PM
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Thanksgiving week 2013 or 2014 anyone?


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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bradjl2009
post Nov 14 2017, 09:03 PM
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So far this is what we're looking like in terms of departures from average through yesterday. Only a few areas are above normal so far in the Delmarva, Boston area, and Maine with everyone else below normal, with some areas in PA and NY showing quite large departures below normal. With the forecast for the next 7-10 days, I would expect these departures in increase in some areas.
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NorEaster07
post Nov 15 2017, 07:16 AM
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QUOTE(bradjl2009 @ Nov 14 2017, 10:03 PM) *
So far this is what we're looking like in terms of departures from average through yesterday.


And if it wasn't for those 4 days at the beginning of this month ,we all would of been more in the negatives.

Source

Attached Image



QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Nov 14 2017, 07:03 PM) *
Yea we have stayed relatively cool overall. I think it is due to displacement from where we were before with our high pressure/ridging set up..


Yea, I expected a rebound back to seasonable or above but kinda interesting we didn't get that..

Check out BDL last 8 days. Below normal.

  • The 38 Max temp Nov 11th was 16 below normal.
  • Low temps were 11-16 below normal 4 days in a row
  • Normal max 52. Normal low 34.
  • Looks like snowflakes fell on 7th, 8th, and yesterday. Little or Nothing stuck.


Attached Image

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NorEaster07
post Nov 15 2017, 08:04 AM
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Hmm. Glacing through some dicos ths morning from Mount Holly, Upton, Albany and Taunton I dont see anything big.
Also 850s dont look too crazy anymore. Except for on Thanksgiving with the Euro00z.
So maybe wont be as deep as last time but looks mostly to stay on the cool side of normal.
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bradjl2009
post Nov 15 2017, 08:35 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 15 2017, 07:16 AM) *
And if it wasn't for those 4 days at the beginning of this month ,we all would of been more in the negatives.

Source

Attached Image


Yea, I expected a rebound back to seasonable or above but kinda interesting we didn't get that..

Check out BDL last 8 days. Below normal.

  • The 38 Max temp Nov 11th was 16 below normal.
  • Low temps were 11-16 below normal 4 days in a row
  • Normal max 52. Normal low 34.
  • Looks like snowflakes fell on 7th, 8th, and yesterday. Little or Nothing stuck.

Attached Image

I was in Seattle for 5 days at the start of the month so I actually missed that entire warm stretch Pittsburgh enjoyed. Because of my trip, I haven't enjoyed a day above 60 in nearly three weeks now laugh.gif. I am impressed and pleased with how cool most of the month is so far after what the predictions were calling for only two weeks ago. Looking at what's expected through Thanksgiving, that should be enough for many of us to finish the month below normal I would think. I know some want to warm it up after the holiday, but that's still pretty far away.

This post has been edited by bradjl2009: Nov 15 2017, 08:37 PM
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NorEaster07
post Nov 16 2017, 06:48 AM
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#DeepFail

Good hashtag? Looks like the deep cold coming has been tamed. Nothing to write home about, nothing record breaking. but should be below normal. When i get back later I'll try to grab the end date.

Upton:

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
419 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

Friday.

987 mb low over the maritimes continues to provide blustery NW winds
across the region. Despite lots of sunshine highs will remain cooler
than normal with temps 40-45 but wind chills in the 30s.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Highlights...

* Showers expected late Saturday into midday Sunday
* Gusty winds as a cold front moves across Sat night
* Blustery and cold conditions early next week
* Temperatures will run close to or below normal into the
middle of next week


Overview...

Overall progressive mid and upper level steering flow continues
across the northern hemisphere, with fast moving surface
systems pushing across the region through the long term period.
Expect temperatures to run mainly near or below seasonal
normals, with brief readings a bit above ahead of the passing
fronts.

Strong low pressure moving across southern Quebec this weekend
will bring another round of showers and blustery winds ahead and
behind the quickly moving cold front. Gusty northwest winds are
likely into early next week, with wind advisories possible.
Mainly dry conditions expected through the middle of next week
with temps running close to or below normal
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 16 2017, 12:27 PM
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Yea it sure seems to be fading as we grow closer to the week of Turkey Day

I for one as I'm sure many were, looking forward to an EARLY start to the winter season (and by winter) I'm merely alluding to sustained COLD with some snow thrown in for good measure, rather then our typical transient in nature "cool" or even slightly below average temperatures.
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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 09:32 PM
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Changed the ? to the 20th. #ShortestColdThreadEver? lmao.

No more thread starting for me! laugh.gif
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