Jan 18-26 Cold Spell, Arctic Outbreak Possible? Options

[blizzardOf96]

-20C right now in my back yard. This type of cold doesn't happen every year.

[Aylmer]

-31 in Gatineau with the wind pushing it down to below -40. A chilly day indeed!

[elder05]

A low of -14.4 in the sunny tropics of Niagara this morning (Grimsby to be exact)

Glad it didn't get colder than that, with fears of my koi pond freezing right over...a little bit of work on it last night prevented this from happening...phew...

[travis3000]

Our local weather station (CFB Borden) recorded temps of minus 29 at 6am, 7am and 8am this morning with wind chills of minus 35. That is the coldest temps seen here in years. Keep in mind, due to the sandy soil and low elevation the temps here are usually very cold on any clear night, but even most of the towns around here were around minus 25 this morning.

[tml78]

-20C in Montreal. EC calls for -27 whereas the TWN calls for -29 tonight. Then tomorrow, it probably won't be higher than -20C. Montreal hasn't seen such high in eight years! Oh, and the wind chill will be around -40.

Ugh...
Here you go: http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/cli...a/canada_e.html

Or maybe you mean this one? It gives out a good summary of records and averages. And it says that Toronto usually gets about 5 days with the low in the -20s.

Thank you

[bigmt]

Currently at -26.2c, windchill values still near -30.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/story...ight-years.html

Ottawa is under a frostbite advisory and a windchill warning as an expected high of -22 C is the coldest in eight years, says CBC Ottawa climatologist Ian Black.

With the windchill, at times Wednesday it will feel like about -40 C. That sparked the wind chill warning from Environment Canada, which expected about 15 km/h winds.

Ottawa Public Health re-issued a frostbite warning Tuesday and health officials said when the windchill is -35 C or colder, exposed skin can freeze in less than ten minutes. They advise wearing layers.

This cold weather did have one benefit in Ottawa. The National Capital Commission opened another stretch of the Rideau Canal.

The skateway had 5.8 kilometres available to the public from the Pretoria Bridge to Dow's Lake but very few took advantage due to the cold temperature.

http://tinyurl.com/ajf8rxs

Bitter cold temperatures have descended on Quebec, prompting widespread windchill warnings across the province.

According to Environment Canada, Arctic air combined with moderate winds has resulted in extreme windchill conditions.

The intense cold is expected to persist across the province until the end of this week leaving residents struggling to stay warm.

While most people are eager to crank up their heat, Hydro Quebec is urging residents to reduce energy use during peak hours.

Officials expect power consumption to peak at 39,000 megawatts this week, which would beat the previous record of 37, 717 megawatts reported on January 24, 2011.

http://tinyurl.com/ab329fp

Widespread windchill warnings cover much of Atlantic Canada with windchill values expected to dip as low as -40 in some places Wednesday.

The frigid temperatures follow a day of snow, strong winds and poor driving conditions in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

The storm cancelled classes across much of Nova Scotia Tuesday and in Newfoundland, students were dismissed after the morning session.

"Between 5-10 cm of snow was recorded in southern Nova Scotia, while places like St. John's Newfoundland saw over 20 cm Tuesday," says Mark Robinson, a meteorologist at The Weather Network.

The heavy snow led to some road closures across eastern Newfoundland Tuesday night and emergency personnel say they responded to many accidents through the evening hours.

Environment Canada warns of reduced visibilities with significant blasts of heavy snow at times.

"And in addition to the snow, much of Atlantic Canada will face frigid temperatures for the next couple of days," says Robinson. "Cold arctic air combined with northwesterly winds will result in cold temperatures and extreme windchill values."

[JJ Snowlover]

Currently at -26.2c, windchill values still near -30.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/story...ight-years.html

Well according to EC, January 14, 2009 we only got to -22.2c according to EC data. EC data
Now bare in mind that is from Ottawa CDA station, which I believe is from the expermental farms, and not the airport were EC typically takes their offical readings from. The problem is the archieve data from the airport is no longer working for the public. So I guess EC is right, who are we to question them Regardless it probably wont make it past -22.2c today, so it is correct, 2004/2005, was the last time we saw cold like this...

This post has been edited by JJ Snowlover: Jan 23 2013, 12:29 PM

[bigmt]

-24.4c now with a windchill of -30. Tomorrow the windchill is forecast to be a numbing -39 before another low temp of -28c overnight. Brrr

[bigmt]

-27.2c right now with another low near -30c for tonight. Bone-chilling stuff.

The 00z NAEFS is gangbusters with blue in it's 8-14 day time period (the opening days of Feb):

 2013012400_054_007_E1_north_america_I_NAEFS_TEMPERATURE_anomaly_probability_combined_week2_198.png ( 48.83K ) Number of downloads: 1

[willyswagon]

- 21 and NW 50kph here in Eastern PEI. The river froze over yesterday. The Harbour has started to freeze last night. The amount of Sea Smoke is fantastic. I'm glad the last chart shows Eastern PEI in the WHITE zone. You guys can have all the blue you want.

[bigmt]

I'm glad the last chart shows Eastern PEI in the WHITE zone. You guys can have all the blue you want.

The NAEFS is a probabilistic ensemble forecast and thus gives the odds of conditions occurring rather than precise numerical departures. In this way we can see that PEI has greater odds of being near-normal or below during the time period in question, although it's difficult to discern without breaking the map down into individual categories. Have a look:

Above-normal probs:

 2013012400_054_007_E1_north_america_I_NAEFS_TEMPERATURE_anomaly_probability_above_normal_week2_198.png ( 46.77K ) Number of downloads: 0


Near-normal probs:

 2013012400_054_007_E1_north_america_I_NAEFS_TEMPERATURE_anomaly_probability_near_normal_week2_198.png ( 48.81K ) Number of downloads: 0


Below-normal probs:

 2013012400_054_007_E1_north_america_I_NAEFS_TEMPERATURE_anomaly_probability_below_normal_week2_198.png ( 46.85K ) Number of downloads: 0


If we take any one particular area and average out the probabilities, the three maps should total 100% broken down into 3 possibilities. Generally, probabilistic forecasts take on the 'white' region when there are roughly equal chances of temp anomalies happening (or not enough of any one category to sway the odds).

In summary, you're not out of the woods yet in terms of cold weather over the next two weeks or so

This post has been edited by bigmt: Jan 24 2013, 08:10 AM

[willyswagon]

That SUCKS!!!
If it isn't going to snow it might as well be Spring!

[JJ Snowlover]

-27.2c right now with another low near -30c for tonight. Bone-chilling stuff.

Another cold night that is an example of extreme cold affecting human lives. Our power went out at 3 am and didn't come back until around 7 am. During that time my fully stocked up wood fired hot water boiler furnace, spiked the extra heat and blew some lines. Now waiting for the repair guy. Thanks very much Hydro One... I really need to invest in a good generator

[Ottawa blizzard]

Well according to EC, January 14, 2009 we only got to -22.2c according to EC data. EC data
Now bare in mind that is from Ottawa CDA station, which I believe is from the expermental farms, and not the airport were EC typically takes their offical readings from. The problem is the archieve data from the airport is no longer working for the public. So I guess EC is right, who are we to question them Regardless it probably wont make it past -22.2c today, so it is correct, 2004/2005, was the last time we saw cold like this...

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/cli...B1=Go&Day=1

Also, Ottawa made it down to -30C in January 2009. :-)

[JJ Snowlover]

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/cli...B1=Go&Day=1

Also, Ottawa made it down to -30C in January 2009. :-)

Thanks OTT blizzard. I couldn't find that link. Yes so a 2.2 degree difference from the 2 locations within Ottawa on January 14th 2009.

[newfiebrit]

Another cold night that is an example of extreme cold affecting human lives. Our power went out at 3 am and didn't come back until around 7 am. During that time my fully stocked up wood fired hot water boiler furnace, spiked the extra heat and blew some lines. Now waiting for the repair guy. Thanks very much Hydro One... I really need to invest in a good generator

There is talk of rotating power outages here during peak time in the morning/evening. Something to do with generator that went during the blizzard 2 weeks back and wont be repaired till the spring so the island is running on two thirds of normal capacity. Makes you wonder what the heck is going to happen to us here if another one goes down.

[Regg]

Well according to EC, January 14, 2009 we only got to -22.2c according to EC data. EC data
Now bare in mind that is from Ottawa CDA station, which I believe is from the expermental farms, and not the airport were EC typically takes their offical readings from. The problem is the archieve data from the airport is no longer working for the public. So I guess EC is right, who are we to question them Regardless it probably wont make it past -22.2c today, so it is correct, 2004/2005, was the last time we saw cold like this...

The data from McDonald C. Airport is there as well .. http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/cli...th=1&Day=01

Or use this one for averages and records min/max : http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/cli...0&month2=12

Sorry this might be duplicate of what O. Bliz. already said - i just noticed it after switching pages.

This post has been edited by Regg: Jan 24 2013, 10:50 AM

[bigmt]

Another cold night that is an example of extreme cold affecting human lives. Our power went out at 3 am and didn't come back until around 7 am. During that time my fully stocked up wood fired hot water boiler furnace, spiked the extra heat and blew some lines.

I hear ya, I've been dealing with frozen pipes overnight multiple times now and have had to knock some drywall out just to gain access to get them insulated & force some heat into the crawlspace. Resorted to letting a faucet drip last night just to get some decent sleep rather than have to be up a bunch of times to check on things.

Hopefully I have the problem mastered but tonight will be a good test

[Canuk]

I hear ya, I've been dealing with frozen pipes overnight multiple times now and have had to knock some drywall out just to gain access to get them insulated & force some heat into the crawlspace. Resorted to letting a faucet drip last night just to get some decent sleep rather than have to be up a bunch of times to check on things.

Hopefully I have the problem mastered but tonight will be a good test

Good Luck! I have the same problem when it is extremely cold. I have small heaters in critical areas.
What do I expect in a 110 year old cottage/home.

[bigmt]

Another frigid night, low of -29c with a windchill of -34c.

Good Luck! I have the same problem when it is extremely cold. I have small heaters in critical areas.
What do I expect in a 110 year old cottage/home.

I've targeted a hole I created under the sink with a portable heater and that seems to be working. Managed to slip foam insulation on most of the pipes via another hole I strategically made behind a mirror lol