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AccuWeather.com Forums _ Current Weather - United States _ Feb 9-11, 2017 MIdAtl/NE DKBIII Blizzard

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 05:12 PM

Begin

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Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 05:12 PM


Posted by: TC1 Feb 8 2017, 05:15 PM

And now the race is on. How fast will the temps really drop? We hit 55F today, and we're currently at 49.6F. Long way to go to get below that 32F line so that we don't have to worry about wet snow weighing things down when the heavy stuff starts. The soundings (or whatever they're called) say we should be at 31F at 1 A.M. tomorrow and 27F by 4 A.M.

Here's hoping.

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 05:16 PM

Again, little virga problems with this one gang! Yea baby. Luv when these systems DON'T plow into a stubborn, bone dry air mass.

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 05:17 PM


Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 05:18 PM

46F ( down 4F in the past hour)

Winds light and variable.

Neat clouds in the western sky, wistfully wishing the waning sun, a fair adieu.

Posted by: Jethro Tull Feb 8 2017, 05:20 PM

54 degrees on the southshore of Long Island, and under a blizzard watch. Major traffic jam at the liquor store!


Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 05:20 PM

So it's not orphaned.



Posted by: so_whats_happening Feb 8 2017, 05:21 PM

QUOTE
I do like the NAM timing of slightly quicker, slightly farther north track. Not a huge difference at the end of the day, but could shift accumulations a touch for some.

Another thing to note, this will be a very quick heavy wet snowfall in many places. If you wait 6 hours until then end to go out and measure/clean, you're going to end up seeing 3.5" of slop. There will be rates in some places of 3"/hour. If you want accurate measurements you're going to have to go out there every half hour to hour. In a quick moving system like this, shouldn't be much of an issue for some of you younger folk. I have grandkids for that.

This post has been edited by Weatherjunkie: Today, 07:13 PM


From WEatherjunkie on the last page in case others didnt see.


Posted by: Jethro Tull Feb 8 2017, 05:22 PM


Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 05:22 PM

"new" CTP maps (oops wrong map first time, sorry)


Posted by: baltimorewisher86 Feb 8 2017, 05:26 PM

Wishing you all the best!

As an insomniac, I'll be on here following along late-night.

Enjoy!

Posted by: MaineJay Feb 8 2017, 05:27 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 05:18 PM) *
46F ( down 4F in the past hour)

Winds light and variable.

Neat clouds in the western sky, wistfully wishing the waning sun, a fair adieu.



Gorgeous sunset up here.

Went from temps in the teens this morning, to mid 40s (some low 50s in southern Maine)
Now 38.4

Hope the storm works out favorably for all, there's always some on the outside looking in. It's been another fun, interesting one to track.

And of course, stay safe.

Posted by: so_whats_happening Feb 8 2017, 05:28 PM

QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Feb 8 2017, 07:26 PM) *
Wishing you all the best!

As an insomniac, I'll be on here following along late-night.

Enjoy!


Ill be on as well driving back to lanc from bwi at 11 should get up my way by 1am hopefully it doesnt get really going until im already back.

Posted by: JDClapper Feb 8 2017, 05:28 PM

QUOTE(stilko4 @ Feb 8 2017, 04:08 PM) *
Never said that... just saying the guy said don't model hug....seems that most inlanders from PA areal hugging the nam as its the furthest north and spreads heavy snow to them. Euro, gfs, rgem a bit south, more tucked in...
No matter what most are getting 8 plus in a very short time



QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Feb 8 2017, 05:13 PM) *
I do like the NAM timing of slightly quicker, slightly farther north track. Not a huge difference at the end of the day, but could shift accumulations a touch for some.

Another thing to note, this will be a very quick heavy wet snowfall in many places. If you wait 6 hours until then end to go out and measure/clean, you're going to end up seeing 3.5" of slop. There will be rates in some places of 3"/hour. If you want accurate measurements you're going to have to go out there every half hour to hour. In a quick moving system like this, shouldn't be much of an issue for some of you younger folk. I have grandkids for that.


Quit hugging WJ. biggrin.gif

Mostly cloudy, 45 degrees. Down 3 degrees in 1 hour.

Posted by: MaineJay Feb 8 2017, 05:29 PM

QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Feb 8 2017, 05:26 PM) *
Wishing you all the best!

As an insomniac, I'll be on here following along late-night.

Enjoy!



Always appreciate your contributions. Hopefully we can fulfill your voyeurism. smile.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 05:29 PM


Posted by: Ryan Duff Feb 8 2017, 05:29 PM

It's not snowing yet. I'm calling bust! tongue.gif

ph34r.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 05:29 PM

QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Feb 8 2017, 05:28 PM) *
Ill be on as well driving back to lanc from bwi at 11 should get up my way by 1am hopefully it doesnt get really going until im already back.

Man that's cutting it close. Safe travels

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 05:30 PM

QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Feb 8 2017, 05:29 PM) *
It's not snowing yet. I'm calling bust! tongue.gif

ph34r.gif

Back at the Winner's Circle again? unsure.gif

Posted by: JDClapper Feb 8 2017, 05:31 PM

I like this radar to help see where the heaviest snow is.. green I have found to generally be 1"+/hr snow rates. I like other radars too, but another tool for your box.

You can center on any state, just change "PA" to your state.

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nx_mosaic_640x480c/RE/inmaREPA_.gif


Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 05:33 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 8 2017, 05:31 PM) *
I like this radar to help see where the heaviest snow is.. green I have found to generally be 1"+/hr snow rates. I like other radars too, but another tool for your box.

You can center on any state, just change "PA" to your state.

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nx_mosaic_640x480c/RE/inmaREPA_.gif




But there are no observations of snow falling in our area, why the thread?

*ducks even lower*

Posted by: JDClapper Feb 8 2017, 05:34 PM

Moving due east.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php


Posted by: JDClapper Feb 8 2017, 05:35 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 05:33 PM) *
But there are no observations of snow falling in our area, why the thread?

*ducks even lower*


Wondered the same thing. I think we should only open OBS threads within 5 mins of first observations.

ohmy.gif

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 05:37 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 8 2017, 05:35 PM) *
Wondered the same thing. I think we should only open OBS threads within 5 mins of first observations.

ohmy.gif



You don't want to be close to me shortly....as I'm expecting direct incoming

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 05:37 PM

QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Feb 8 2017, 05:21 PM) *
From WEatherjunkie on the last page in case others didnt see.

I do detest shrinkage blink.gif blink.gif

Posted by: RobB Feb 8 2017, 05:37 PM

Radar/METARS:



 

Posted by: LUCC Feb 8 2017, 05:38 PM


Posted by: ctdryslot Feb 8 2017, 05:38 PM

Nothing like a little humility.... unsure.gif

I like Steve - (this just made me laugh though).



Posted by: so_whats_happening Feb 8 2017, 05:38 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 07:29 PM) *
Man that's cutting it close. Safe travels


ha yea it is when i started to see it showing up for this date I started to question if I really wanted to drive down here and back up during it but the meteorologist in me said "duh of course you want to!"

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 05:39 PM

QUOTE(ctdryslot @ Feb 8 2017, 05:38 PM) *
Nothing like a little humility.... unsure.gif

I like Steve - (this just made me laugh though).





Does his head fit through a standard door?

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 05:40 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 8 2017, 05:35 PM) *
Wondered the same thing. I think we should only open OBS threads within 5 mins of first observations.

ohmy.gif

laugh.gif laugh.gif It's gonna be a fun night. I say a prime time Late Nite!

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 05:40 PM

QUOTE(ctdryslot @ Feb 8 2017, 05:38 PM) *
Nothing like a little humility.... unsure.gif

I like Steve - (this just made me laugh though).



dry.gif

No doubt man.

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 05:41 PM

One thing I must say, to the whiners that have boo - hoo headaches. Take 2 man pills and call me in the morning. We finally have a storm tongue.gif tongue.gif

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 05:41 PM

QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 05:40 PM) *
laugh.gif laugh.gif It's gonna be a fun night. I say a prime time Late Nite!



UTS is figuring out how to get even

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 05:41 PM

QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 05:40 PM) *
laugh.gif laugh.gif It's gonna be a fun night. I say a prime time Late Nite!

Uh - thought you were planning a mini Rooster Shift deal.

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 05:42 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 05:33 PM) *
But there are no observations of snow falling in our area, why the thread?

*ducks even lower*

Oh, I'm fully aware of how low you can go...

Posted by: so_whats_happening Feb 8 2017, 05:42 PM



Can we see where it will go in the future?

Posted by: plowxpress Feb 8 2017, 05:43 PM

QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 05:40 PM) *
laugh.gif laugh.gif It's gonna be a fun night. I say a prime time Late Nite!


So, your not going to sleep early and wake up at 4am rooster tongue.gif

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 05:43 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 05:41 PM) *
Uh - thought you were planning a mini Rooster Shift deal.

Yup, that why doing a prime time Late Nite , vs. late Late Nite. I didn't think it was really that complicated tongue.gif tongue.gif

Posted by: LUCC Feb 8 2017, 05:44 PM

QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Feb 8 2017, 05:29 PM) *
It's not snowing yet. I'm calling bust! tongue.gif

ph34r.gif

Well, hopefully when everyone (except eastern LI/NE) logs in tomorrow morning it is snowing so we won't hear a thousand bust calls. laugh.gif

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 05:43 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 05:42 PM) *
Oh, I'm fully aware of how low you can go...



There he is! I'm so low the rear end of an amoeba looks like the rising sun.

Posted by: Miller A Feb 8 2017, 05:45 PM

QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 8 2017, 05:29 PM) *
Yup, we are just about all in a great spot right now.


Weird for me to look at the graphics the way they are. Not used to it. Definitely not on the fringe on this one. Enjoy.

My boss, who is the HR Director, who has to be in touch with the owner( who is in Europe) about delays/closings, was telling me it was only going to be a couple inches. What?!? Then he re-read his printout from some unknown site, and realized it said 1-2" PER HOUR

Still not deterred, he said he is coming in real early tomorrow no matter what, whether we are open, delayed or closed.

I gave him the Mt Holly Briefing as that shows 8-12" and discusses the travel nightmare for the morning commute.

I'm sure they will delay opening, but shoveling out at 11 am and driving 45 miles.........Not so sure I will make that one.

I hope smarter heads prevail

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 05:45 PM

QUOTE(plowxpress @ Feb 8 2017, 05:43 PM) *
So, your not going to sleep early and wake up at 4am rooster tongue.gif

I just wanna get off the freakin roads before you and PowerStrokes start plowing, especially Power. He seems to have a bit on an edge about him laugh.gif

Posted by: 7.3powerstrokediesel Feb 8 2017, 05:45 PM

I'm scheduled to go in at midnight. Gonna catch a nap and check in with y'all before I head in

Posted by: PhillySnowLover Feb 8 2017, 05:45 PM

Crankywxguy from twitter seems to be saying expect the high end of the forecast snow accumulations.

Posted by: LUCC Feb 8 2017, 05:46 PM

53 with 56% humidity here in Robbinsville, NJ! OMG this is going to be great, already WFH tomorrow, kids and wifey off! Adult beverages have been stocked, snowthrower ready, etc.!

Posted by: stilko4 Feb 8 2017, 05:46 PM

QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 8 2017, 05:44 PM) *
Well, hopefully when everyone (except eastern LI/NE) logs in tomorrow morning it is snowing so we won't hear a thousand bust calls. laugh.gif

Pretty sure eastern li will receive alot of snow, just will take longer to get there.

Posted by: LUCC Feb 8 2017, 05:46 PM

QUOTE(PhillySnowLover @ Feb 8 2017, 05:45 PM) *
Crankywxguy from twitter seems to be saying expect the high end of the forecast snow accumulations.

wub.gif

Posted by: 7.3powerstrokediesel Feb 8 2017, 05:46 PM

QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 05:45 PM) *
I just wanna get off the freakin roads before you and PowerStrokes start plowing, especially Power. He seems to have a bit on an edge about him laugh.gif



I don't gotta worry about IMBY Philadelphia requests every 3 minutes while I'm plowing

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 05:46 PM



Posted by: LUCC Feb 8 2017, 05:47 PM

QUOTE(stilko4 @ Feb 8 2017, 05:46 PM) *
Pretty sure eastern li will receive alot of snow, just will take longer to get there.

Hence LI and NE in my post......

Posted by: RobB Feb 8 2017, 05:47 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 05:43 PM) *
There he is! I'm so low the rear end of an amoeba looks like the rising sun.



Too much fun for you guys smile.gif

Posted by: evans18a Feb 8 2017, 05:47 PM

I see some (not of this forum) already hugging the NAM and EURO on lower totals on the south end. Honestly just need to watch the current obs and see the cold air move in. I can't remember the last time watching current obs map and tracking the cold line dry.gif

Posted by: SnowyRups21 Feb 8 2017, 05:47 PM

How do the real time OBS look compared to what the models are showing? And what model is closest to the real time OBS? Thank you

Posted by: RobB Feb 8 2017, 05:48 PM

QUOTE(7.3powerstrokediesel @ Feb 8 2017, 05:46 PM) *
I don't gotta worry about IMBY Philadelphia requests every 3 minutes while I'm plowing



Can plowing be peaceful at times for ya?

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 05:48 PM

remember when Balt used to take trips in the city for the big storms and take pics. I miss those. Freakin trader going out west. Something about his career or such. Whatever. Blah, blah, blah laugh.gif

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 05:49 PM

QUOTE(7.3powerstrokediesel @ Feb 8 2017, 05:46 PM) *
I don't gotta worry about IMBY Philadelphia requests every 3 minutes while I'm plowing

laugh.gif Right on cue!

Posted by: RochesterSnow Feb 8 2017, 05:49 PM

I'll be up late tonight, if possible I'll get photos when it comes in, maybe setup my webcam if it gets really fun.

From the forecast thread, since we moved here. But, needless to say:


Posted by: 7.3powerstrokediesel Feb 8 2017, 05:49 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Feb 8 2017, 05:48 PM) *
Can plowing be peaceful at times for ya?



Yeah it's very relaxing but there's gonna be some extra mailboxes flying while I am screaming that's what Philly gets !!

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 05:49 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Feb 8 2017, 05:47 PM) *
Too much fun for you guys smile.gif


I'm not sure he believes me... never in 7 years have I opened a thread. Probably easy, but I would take forever to figure it out.

Posted by: RobB Feb 8 2017, 05:49 PM

QUOTE(7.3powerstrokediesel @ Feb 8 2017, 05:49 PM) *
Yeah it's very relaxing but there's gonna be some mailboxes flying while screaming that's what Philly gets !!


smile.gif

Posted by: StormTracker Feb 8 2017, 05:50 PM

Watch it be above freezing for Philly and we get like 1 inch. I have that weird feeling in my stomach that something like that may happen. It's 53 right now. Dropped 7 degrees 1.5 hrs

Posted by: LUCC Feb 8 2017, 05:51 PM

QUOTE(RochesterSnow @ Feb 8 2017, 05:49 PM) *
I'll be up late tonight, if possible I'll get photos when it comes in, maybe setup my webcam if it gets really fun.

From the forecast thread, since we moved here. But, needless to say:


Planning on getting to bed early and waking up at the usual 4-5am. rolleyes.gif biggrin.gif

Posted by: baltimorewisher86 Feb 8 2017, 05:51 PM

QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 05:48 PM) *
remember when Balt used to take trips in the city for the big storms and take pics. I miss those. Freakin trader going out west. Something about his career or such. Whatever. Blah, blah, blah laugh.gif


You have no idea how much this is killing me.. I was always asking for opinions on best place to set up shop. For this one, I wouldnt have had to go anywhere.. NNJ looks to be in good shape as do many other places, obviously.

This has been a great year for ski resort areas out here, not so much Boulder and Denver.. win some/lose some...

Enjoy this storm, people are saying winter is over 2/15, lots of smart people, the smartest wink.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 05:51 PM

ohmy.gif



Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 05:51 PM

QUOTE(7.3powerstrokediesel @ Feb 8 2017, 05:49 PM) *
Yeah it's very relaxing but there's gonna be some extra mailboxes flying while I am screaming that's what Philly gets !!



Remind me not to get you upset!

Posted by: RobB Feb 8 2017, 05:51 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 05:49 PM) *
I'm not sure he believes me... never in 7 years have I opened a thread. Probably easy, but I would take forever to figure it out.



Not too bad at all...Easier if you compare what is input on other threads that were opened for their title and the day range until storm commences....

Copy and paste works smile.gif

Posted by: UTWeather Feb 8 2017, 05:51 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 05:46 PM) *



Can someone please explain the different lines.

Posted by: plowxpress Feb 8 2017, 05:51 PM

QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 05:45 PM) *
I just wanna get off the freakin roads before you and PowerStrokes start plowing, especially Power. He seems to have a bit on an edge about him laugh.gif


laugh.gif clearly you have never seen me in my loader with a 12' pusher on the front....but I think your right, Powerstroke seems like he would run you off the road with his DOT truck. Can't blame him though, people on the roads are MORONS! Their even worse in big parking lots.

Posted by: LUCC Feb 8 2017, 05:52 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 8 2017, 05:50 PM) *
Watch it be above freezing for Philly and we get like 1 inch. I have that weird feeling in my stomach that something like that may happen. It's 53 right now. Dropped 7 degrees 1.5 hrs

I'm thinking 1-3" for Philly.

Posted by: mtksurfer Feb 8 2017, 05:52 PM

Looking good for us on LI. I'm looking forward to a good storm finally...

Posted by: RobB Feb 8 2017, 05:52 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 05:51 PM) *
ohmy.gif





Yep...Simulated IR

 

Posted by: StormTracker Feb 8 2017, 05:52 PM

QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 8 2017, 05:52 PM) *
I'm thinking 1-3" for Philly.

Are you actually? I mean, none of the models have showed that. Least was 4. I just have a feeling everything will go wrong. Typically happens near I-95.

Posted by: plowxpress Feb 8 2017, 05:53 PM

QUOTE(7.3powerstrokediesel @ Feb 8 2017, 05:46 PM) *
I don't gotta worry about IMBY Philadelphia requests every 3 minutes while I'm plowing


+1 laugh.gif

Posted by: TheFuture Feb 8 2017, 05:54 PM

QUOTE(7.3powerstrokediesel @ Feb 8 2017, 05:46 PM) *
I don't gotta worry about IMBY Philadelphia requests every 3 minutes while I'm plowing


Im plowing in center city area tonight power stroked. What are you guys doing as far as pretreating is concerned. Looks like we'll be starting out as rain. Kind of a tough call?

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 05:55 PM

QUOTE(mtksurfer @ Feb 8 2017, 05:52 PM) *
Looking good for us on LI. I'm looking forward to a good storm finally...

You didn't get hit back in January Blizzard?

Posted by: SnowMan11 Feb 8 2017, 05:56 PM

I wouldn't be shocked to see the numbers go even higher for some places at 0z. We shall see but this looks like a great storm.


Posted by: StormTracker Feb 8 2017, 05:57 PM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Feb 8 2017, 05:56 PM) *
I wouldn't be shocked to see the numbers go even higher for some places at 0z. We shall see but this looks like a great storm.

Not for Philly. We are on the brink, or at least in my opinion. Everybody else's numbers continue to flourish while ours sink.

Posted by: RobB Feb 8 2017, 05:57 PM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Feb 8 2017, 05:56 PM) *
I wouldn't be shocked to see the numbers go even higher for some places at 0z. We shall see but this looks like a great storm.



Enjoy it Snowman! I'll be watching Times Square cams!

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 05:57 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 05:51 PM) *
ohmy.gif



That is RC, RD, PP, Power territory baby.

Posted by: so_whats_happening Feb 8 2017, 05:57 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 07:49 PM) *
I'm not sure he believes me... never in 7 years have I opened a thread. Probably easy, but I would take forever to figure it out.


It takes forever for me sometimes and then to change things with time, forget it. That is why i just let the one in the LR area just go and if they last for multiple years hey so be it lol

Posted by: 7.3powerstrokediesel Feb 8 2017, 05:58 PM

QUOTE(TheFuture @ Feb 8 2017, 05:54 PM) *
Im plowing in center city area tonight power stroked. What are you guys doing as far as pretreating is concerned. Looks like we'll be starting out as rain. Kind of a tough call?




24/7 staffed and they brined the roads

Posted by: stilko4 Feb 8 2017, 05:58 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 05:55 PM) *
You didn't get hit back in January Blizzard?

Wasn't a blizzard. Was windy and snowy though, 10 -12 was an avg of the island (nassau and Suffolk). Just a bit too far East for larger totals.

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 05:59 PM

QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 8 2017, 05:52 PM) *
I'm thinking 1-3" for Philly.

You are a bad man. Just when we had him settled laugh.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 05:59 PM

More Cranky


Posted by: srg1226 Feb 8 2017, 05:59 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 8 2017, 05:52 PM) *
Are you actually? I mean, none of the models have showed that. Least was 4. I just have a feeling everything will go wrong. Typically happens near I-95.



nothing like some good ole positive thinking huh? Glass half empty kinda guy aren't you

Posted by: PhillySnowLover Feb 8 2017, 05:59 PM

Can you guys stop talking about Philly smile.gif. Looking at you storm tracker. You got to relax. You are mentioning it every minute. Whatever we get, I will be happy considering how this winter has gone. So whether its 3 or 5 or 8 inches I don’t care, I will enjoy the storm.

Posted by: MD Blue Ridge Feb 8 2017, 06:00 PM

QUOTE(7.3powerstrokediesel @ Feb 8 2017, 05:46 PM) *
I don't gotta worry about IMBY Philadelphia requests every 3 minutes while I'm plowing


Yes. You do. Stormtracker is your ride along tomorrow, he'll be in your truck at midnight.

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 06:00 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 8 2017, 05:52 PM) *
Are you actually? I mean, none of the models have showed that. Least was 4. I just have a feeling everything will go wrong. Typically happens near I-95.

He's messing with ya bud. Feels your anxiety. OK, maybe reading some of it.

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 06:00 PM

QUOTE(stilko4 @ Feb 8 2017, 05:58 PM) *
Wasn't a blizzard. Was windy and snowy though, 10 -12 was an avg of the island (nassau and Suffolk). Just a bit too far East for larger totals.

Not where you were, but the storm did have B warnings IIRC/

Posted by: plowxpress Feb 8 2017, 06:01 PM

QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 05:57 PM) *
That is RC, RD, PP, Power territory baby.


I am getting that fuzzy feeling thinking back to Jan 23, 2016 wink.gif

Posted by: LUCC Feb 8 2017, 06:02 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 8 2017, 05:52 PM) *
Are you actually? I mean, none of the models have showed that. Least was 4. I just have a feeling everything will go wrong. Typically happens near I-95.

Dude, all models could show 24"+ for Philly and then the JMA could show 3" and you would freak out saying Philly is getting nothin. LMAO

Chillax and enjoy this storm, mang. cool.gif

Posted by: LUCC Feb 8 2017, 06:02 PM

QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 05:59 PM) *
You are a bad man. Just when we had him settled laugh.gif

laugh.gif

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 06:02 PM

QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 8 2017, 06:00 PM) *
Yes. You do. Stormtracker is your ride along tomorrow, he'll be in your truck at midnight.

I was only joking last night about the mail boxes ohmy.gif Why ain't I all that surprised laugh.gif

Posted by: Storms R us Feb 8 2017, 06:02 PM

Noticed some decent storms firing up along east Tenn, with some showing possible hail.

Posted by: TheFuture Feb 8 2017, 06:03 PM

QUOTE(7.3powerstrokediesel @ Feb 8 2017, 05:58 PM) *
24/7 staffed and they brined the roads


Were staffed after 3 am as of right now. Good luck tonight and stay safe. Ill be in and around Bala Plaza!

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 06:04 PM

Everything I'm seeing at the surface so far suggests NAM had the better story. Surface boundary across VA seems to have stopped moving south. Low would track almost exactly where NAM had it

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 06:04 PM

QUOTE(plowxpress @ Feb 8 2017, 06:01 PM) *
I am getting that fuzzy feeling thinking back to Jan 23, 2016 wink.gif

Alas, faster mover. Thankfully. Really don't want anywhere near that much.

Posted by: ctdryslot Feb 8 2017, 06:05 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 8 2017, 05:57 PM) *
Not for Philly. We are on the brink, or at least in my opinion. Everybody else's numbers continue to flourish while ours sink.

You might want to check in with PowerStroke and see what he thinks...

Posted by: MD Blue Ridge Feb 8 2017, 06:05 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 06:04 PM) *
Everything I'm seeing at the surface so far suggests NAM had the better story. Surface boundary across VA seems to have stopped moving south. Low would track almost exactly where NAM had it


Nerd.

Page topper! Boom.

Posted by: plowxpress Feb 8 2017, 06:06 PM

QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 06:04 PM) *
Alas, faster mover. Thankfully. Really don't want anywhere near that much.


Faster and not as good with ratios for sure. But.man rates look like they might be pretty close, we were doing 3"-4" in that one last year.

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 06:06 PM

QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 8 2017, 06:05 PM) *
Nerd.

Page topper! Boom.



Thank you...hadn't had my MDBR Nerd for the day yet

Posted by: baltimorewisher86 Feb 8 2017, 06:07 PM

Hate to be that guy.. but just stopping by and dont have much time... anyone have predictions for philly?

but in all seriousness, pivotal added some new close-up maps for HRRR and NAM 3KM

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 06:07 PM

QUOTE(plowxpress @ Feb 8 2017, 06:06 PM) *
Faster and not as good with ratios for sure. But.man rates look like they might be pretty close, we were doing 3"-4" in that one last year.


Too bad a lot of the very heavy rates in PA are before daybreak. Will be interesting to see the picture of the snowfall.

Posted by: grandpaboy Feb 8 2017, 06:08 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 05:59 PM) *
More Cranky




Yea cranky is doing some awesome nowcasting stuff right now...he is very supportive of going high end totals given current obs...


Also believes the NAM is dead wrong and way too far north...

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 06:08 PM

QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Feb 8 2017, 06:07 PM) *
Hate to be that guy.. but just stopping by and dont have much time... anyone have predictions for philly?



Ask Power

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 06:08 PM

QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Feb 8 2017, 06:08 PM) *
Yea cranky is doing some awesome nowcasting stuff right now...he is very supportive of going high end totals given current obs...
Also believes the NAM is dead wrong and way too far north...


Really

Posted by: baltimorewisher86 Feb 8 2017, 06:09 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 06:08 PM) *
Ask Power


I really hope you know I wasn't serious laugh.gif

Posted by: LUCC Feb 8 2017, 06:09 PM

QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Feb 8 2017, 06:08 PM) *
Yea cranky is doing some awesome nowcasting stuff right now...he is very supportive of going high end totals given current obs...
Also believes the NAM is dead wrong and way too far north...

Well, he needs to debate with ST.

Posted by: blizzard08 Feb 8 2017, 06:09 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 8 2017, 05:52 PM) *
Are you actually? I mean, none of the models have showed that. Least was 4. I just have a feeling everything will go wrong. Typically happens near I-95.

First you say you're tired of giving opinions(which we all are also)and then ask for others for theirs. When they give you what they think, you ask again "really?!" Mixed with bitercasting along with wishcasting. TBH it looks like trolling. With all the philly, philly, Philadelphia, are we there yet, I want a Philly cheesesteak now.

Posted by: srg1226 Feb 8 2017, 06:10 PM

Has this been posted yet? Unsure, but anyways if not - 18Z 4k NAM totals


Posted by: so_whats_happening Feb 8 2017, 06:10 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 08:07 PM) *
Too bad a lot of the very heavy rates in PA are before daybreak. Will be interesting to see the picture of the snowfall.


Ill try to grab some later tonight. Gonna be up for awhile, as I usually am.

My one friend out in North Dakota does not believe we will see that much, told him looks like things are shaping up for 6-10". Said the ground is too warm, told him this is how we get some of our biggest storms and will send him a pic in the morning lol.

Posted by: skiier04 Feb 8 2017, 06:10 PM

CTP just expanded warnings northwest. Could be our first shot at 6"+ in over two years out here in CPA... have fun everyone!

Posted by: grandpaboy Feb 8 2017, 06:10 PM

blink.gif

Folks, for about a 3hr period, some will see 6-10" fall. Travel highly discouraged in that window.

Cranky

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 06:10 PM

QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 8 2017, 06:09 PM) *
Well, he needs to debate with ST.


We shall see. I will tip my hat if required!

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 06:10 PM

I'll do my best to get some shots under the BY floodlights.

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 06:11 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 06:06 PM) *
Thank you...hadn't had my MDBR Nerd for the day yet

Sorry I covered for him in his illness. He has the sniffles laugh.gif It was after one of your painful obs lecture posts.....

Posted by: 7.3powerstrokediesel Feb 8 2017, 06:11 PM

QUOTE(PhillySnowLover @ Feb 8 2017, 05:59 PM) *
Can you guys stop talking about Philly smile.gif. Looking at you storm tracker. You got to relax. You are mentioning it every minute. Whatever we get, I will be happy considering how this winter has gone. So whether its 3 or 5 or 8 inches I dont care, I will enjoy the storm.



Report button. More people who click it the quicker it gets solved

Posted by: MD Blue Ridge Feb 8 2017, 06:11 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 06:08 PM) *
Really


Oooooooooohhhhhh I smell a ST/cranky, street fighter feud.

Round one.

Fight!

Sorry, I'm all hopped up on cold medicine and whiskey....I'll crash soon.

Posted by: HassayWx2306 Feb 8 2017, 06:11 PM

Light rain at the moment in the burgh 36 waiting on the switch

Posted by: Storms R us Feb 8 2017, 06:12 PM

Looking at the models the storm system will be moving quick.

Posted by: LUCC Feb 8 2017, 06:12 PM

QUOTE(srg1226 @ Feb 8 2017, 06:10 PM) *
Has this been posted yet? Unsure, but anyways if not - 18Z 4k NAM totals


cool.gif

Posted by: baltimorewisher86 Feb 8 2017, 06:12 PM

snowfall rates are my favorite aspect to any storm - this one should have some prolific rates...

Posted by: baltimorewisher86 Feb 8 2017, 06:12 PM

QUOTE(Storms R us @ Feb 8 2017, 06:12 PM) *
Looking at the models the storm system will be moving quick.


always was supposed to be a quick mover, 12, 18 hours tops... its the incredible rates that will make this a double-digit storm for many.

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 06:13 PM

QUOTE(plowxpress @ Feb 8 2017, 06:06 PM) *
Faster and not as good with ratios for sure. But.man rates look like they might be pretty close, we were doing 3"-4" in that one last year.

Agree sir. Feel sorry for you guys trying to keep pace with those rates. Impossible. But I'll still *bleep*. Thinking maybe the editorial route tongue.gif

Posted by: evans18a Feb 8 2017, 06:13 PM

QUOTE(blizzard08 @ Feb 8 2017, 06:09 PM) *
First you say you're tired of giving opinions(which we all are also)and then ask for others for theirs. When they give you what they think, you ask again "really?!" Mixed with bitercasting along with wishcasting. TBH it looks like trolling. With all the philly, philly, Philadelphia, are we there yet, I want a Philly cheesesteak now.



Thanks I want a Cheesesteak too now.

Posted by: RobB Feb 8 2017, 06:13 PM

QUOTE(Storms R us @ Feb 8 2017, 06:12 PM) *
Looking at the models the storm system will be moving quick.



Quick indeed, but with snow rates...Does it matter? I like where you sit man...

Definitely enjoy it either way. Fret not at amounts and what models do. Just enjoy the snowfall which has been a rarity this season!

Posted by: 7.3powerstrokediesel Feb 8 2017, 06:13 PM

Been a fun few days fellas! Here's hoping you all get what you want! Minus a select city or two

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 06:14 PM

I think it was UTWeather that asked about the Thk lines

Layman's terms, they are an indicator of the depth of the cold through each layer of the column. Simply put, if all lines are to your S and you have precip it will be snow. As they move over you or above you, you start to see mixed precip types. When N of you, you're seeing rain.


Posted by: RobB Feb 8 2017, 06:14 PM

QUOTE(7.3powerstrokediesel @ Feb 8 2017, 06:13 PM) *
Been a fun few days fellas! Here's hoping you all get what you want! Minus a select city or two



Stay safe and happy plowing!

Posted by: plowxpress Feb 8 2017, 06:15 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 06:07 PM) *
Too bad a lot of the very heavy rates in PA are before daybreak. Will be interesting to see the picture of the snowfall.


At thsee heavy rates it gets very hard to even see the snow box 15' out in front of the loader

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 06:16 PM

QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 8 2017, 06:11 PM) *
Oooooooooohhhhhh I smell a ST/cranky, street fighter feud.

Round one.

Fight!

Sorry, I'm all hopped up on cold medicine and whiskey....I'll crash soon.



He and I already had a philosophical discussion on approach (not for this storm). I truly admire his nowcasting skills and the extensive suite of tools, including stormhamster. Where he and I differ, and we talked about it, was that he had the NWS "wait until you know probability being correct is greater than 80%" syndrome. I argued there is value added for customers to give initial outlooks and try to make sense of the forecast regardless of the difficulty. Too many time I see "wait until next week to discuss". Well, some businesses can't react to a last minute change, making the 80% confidence forecast useless. And it's all about who the customer really is. The customer is not the meteorologist. Off soapbox.

Again....he is outstanding at analysis. We differ on what can be done early on.

Posted by: grandpaboy Feb 8 2017, 06:16 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 06:08 PM) *
Really



Fwiw...he overall despises the NAM....

But ...this is what he sees...

@Dead_Boy_Stiv Ignore it. It's not right. No observation to support that track. Irrelevant anyway. This is an "hourly precip rate" storm.





Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 06:17 PM

Have to try and time my Accu radar posts when radar cop Clap ain't on blink.gif Would that be while his kids are still up???

Posted by: UD1Hens Feb 8 2017, 06:17 PM

I've been downgraded for the 3rd time this afternoon here in Northern Harford County. Went from 5-8, to 3-5, now to 1-3". Seems like the cold air won't catch the bulk of the precipitation here and once it does the storm will have left the area. Enjoy the storm all. Hopefully we get a couple hours of heavy snow during the changeover even if it doesn't stick too much. We typically don't do well on rain to snow solutions.

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 06:17 PM

Clapper - you see this



Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 06:19 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 06:16 PM) *
He and I already had a philosophical discussion on approach (not for this storm). I truly admire his nowcasting skills and the extensive suite of tools, including stormhamster. Where he and I differ, and we talked about it, was that he had the NWS "wait until you know probability being correct is greater than 80%" syndrome. I argued there is value added for customers to give initial outlooks and try to make sense of the forecast regardless of the difficulty. Too many time I see "wait until next week to discuss". Well, some businesses can't react to a last minute change, making the 80% confidence forecast useless. And it's all about who the customer really is. The customer is not the meteorologist. Off soapbox.

Again....he is outstanding at analysis. We differ on what can be done early on.

At least you didn't sign that one. Why do you sign your posts? We already get a hint who it is laugh.gif Sorry, I am just a little too excited about this one tongue.gif

Posted by: MD Blue Ridge Feb 8 2017, 06:19 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 06:16 PM) *
He and I already had a philosophical discussion on approach (not for this storm). I truly admire his nowcasting skills and the extensive suite of tools, including stormhamster. Where he and I differ, and we talked about it, was that he had the NWS "wait until you know probability being correct is greater than 80%" syndrome. I argued there is value added for customers to give initial outlooks and try to make sense of the forecast regardless of the difficulty. Too many time I see "wait until next week to discuss". Well, some businesses can't react to a last minute change, making the 80% confidence forecast useless. And it's all about who the customer really is. The customer is not the meteorologist. Off soapbox.

Again....he is outstanding at analysis. We differ on what can be done early on.


I like him to Ryu.

Hadouken!!!!!!!

Reference?

Posted by: RobB Feb 8 2017, 06:20 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 06:16 PM) *
He and I already had a philosophical discussion on approach (not for this storm). I truly admire his nowcasting skills and the extensive suite of tools, including stormhamster. Where he and I differ, and we talked about it, was that he had the NWS "wait until you know probability being correct is greater than 80%" syndrome. I argued there is value added for customers to give initial outlooks and try to make sense of the forecast regardless of the difficulty. Too many time I see "wait until next week to discuss". Well, some businesses can't react to a last minute change, making the 80% confidence forecast useless. And it's all about who the customer really is. The customer is not the meteorologist. Off soapbox.

Again....he is outstanding at analysis. We differ on what can be done early on.



Well stated! Maybe he tries to be conservative with calls like that and wants that confidence because he thinks too many will heed his thoughts more than official NWS offices?? Perhaps not wanting to hose his followers...

Posted by: MaineJay Feb 8 2017, 06:20 PM

18z UKie is quite close to the coast



Posted by: Snowadelphia Feb 8 2017, 06:20 PM

QUOTE(UD1Hens @ Feb 8 2017, 06:17 PM) *
I've been downgraded for the 3rd time this afternoon here in Northern Harford County. Went from 5-8, to 3-5, now to 1-3". Seems like the cold air won't catch the bulk of the precipitation here and once it does the storm will have left the area. Enjoy the storm all. Hopefully we get a couple hours of heavy snow during the changeover even if it doesn't stick too much. We typically don't do well on rain to snow solutions.


You should get the backside thump of heavy snow. Question is how long it lasts and how quickly it can accumulate.

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 06:21 PM

QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 06:19 PM) *
At least you didn't sign that one. Why do you sign your posts? We already get a hint who it is laugh.gif Sorry, I am just a little too excited about this one tongue.gif


Old habit....military forecasts were signed so they knew who to stab when they (pilots) came back from a weather busted mission. I've been slowly getting out of that.

Posted by: plowxpress Feb 8 2017, 06:21 PM

QUOTE(7.3powerstrokediesel @ Feb 8 2017, 06:13 PM) *
Been a fun few days fellas! Here's hoping you all get what you want! Minus a select city or two


Be safe PSD

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 06:22 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 06:21 PM) *
Old habit....military forecasts were signed so they knew who to stab when they (pilots) came back from a weather busted mission. I've been slowly getting out of that.

Oh. That was a little sadder answer than I wanted. Now I feel bad.

Posted by: plowxpress Feb 8 2017, 06:24 PM

QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 06:13 PM) *
Agree sir. Feel sorry for you guys trying to keep pace with those rates. Impossible. But I'll still *bleep*. Thinking maybe the editorial route tongue.gif


As long as we all know your in here, all is good with the weather world biggrin.gif

Posted by: Snowadelphia Feb 8 2017, 06:24 PM

QUOTE(plowxpress @ Feb 8 2017, 06:21 PM) *
Be safe PSD


Is he pulling for that Palmerton snowhole?

tongue.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 06:24 PM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 8 2017, 06:20 PM) *
18z UKie is quite close to the coast



Hugger! It's going outside BM, not inside (or so I heard) rolleyes.gif

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 06:25 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Feb 8 2017, 06:20 PM) *
Well stated! Maybe he tries to be conservative with calls like that and wants that confidence because he thinks too many will heed his thoughts more than official NWS offices?? Perhaps not wanting to hose his followers...



His heart is in the right place, and he points back to NWS for the official story. Trouble was I was always after the NWS offices to do same thing. He metwatches very well, something the NWS offices didn't have the time (or sometimes the inclination) to do. And, in this litigious world, you have to protect yourself too from being sued for a bad forecast, hence the disclaimers.

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 06:25 PM

Where is Dr. T? I need to sign off for a bit and get some valium. I'm even getting on my own nerves rolleyes.gif
Enjoy!

Posted by: snowsux Feb 8 2017, 06:25 PM

The local Pittsburgh mets really porked the pooch with the one. Nary a word about this threat until this evening, and now they're scrambling to get the word out. Tomorrow evening's news will be all about how poorly the storm was handled by local road crews (between the daily stories of shootings, robberies and heroin overdoses, of course). Thankfully mother nature will be the biggest contributor to the cleanup effort with 50's and rain this weekend. SMH. What an inept region on every level.

Posted by: baltimorewisher86 Feb 8 2017, 06:25 PM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 8 2017, 06:20 PM) *
18z UKie is quite close to the coast




would you mind linking me to that site? (and yes I tried googling it first)

Posted by: RobB Feb 8 2017, 06:26 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 06:25 PM) *
His heart is in the right place, and he points back to NWS for the official story. Trouble was I was always after the NWS offices to do same thing. He metwatches very well, something the NWS offices didn't have the time (or sometimes the inclination) to do. And, in this litigious world, you have to protect yourself too from being sued for a bad forecast, hence the disclaimers.



Gotcha! Thanks for letting me chew your ear. It'll heal soon smile.gif

Posted by: StormTracker Feb 8 2017, 06:26 PM

Here's GFS PARA.


 

Posted by: so_whats_happening Feb 8 2017, 06:27 PM

QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 8 2017, 08:19 PM) *
I like him to Ryu.

Hadouken!!!!!!!

Reference?


Im sorry but if no one knows that dry.gif

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 06:27 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 06:24 PM) *
Hugger! It's going outside BM, not inside (or so I heard) rolleyes.gif



Our trough never really goes negative so recurvature inside BM not likely. But upper MidAtl and SNE catches the brunt of a newly developing wave with a decent moisture fetch.

Posted by: MaineJay Feb 8 2017, 06:28 PM

QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Feb 8 2017, 06:25 PM) *
would you mind linking me to that site? (and yes I tried googling it first)


Lol@using the Google

Sorry, I usually try to source my links. smile.gif


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

Posted by: StormTracker Feb 8 2017, 06:28 PM

And guys, it's the sarcasm I just don't like. Especially when one says "1-3" and is kidding. I was being serious about it. I'm been looking for a big snowstorm this whole winter, and I'm sure everybody is pretty dissapointed about our winter. Therefore, I want to know everything I can WHEN AND WHERE a big storm happens, such as this one. I don't want to come across a pushy, which I admit, I can be sometimes, but my curiosity tends to lead to pushiness, which is not where I want it to go. I hope you all understand.

Enjoy the storm.

~Jonathan

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 06:29 PM

QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Feb 8 2017, 06:27 PM) *
Im sorry but if no one knows that dry.gif



I was hoping someone would translate laugh.gif

Posted by: baltimorewisher86 Feb 8 2017, 06:30 PM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 8 2017, 06:28 PM) *
Lol@using the Google

Sorry, I usually try to source my links. smile.gif
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/


thank you! what are you thinking up there for yourself?

Posted by: TheProphecy Feb 8 2017, 06:31 PM

My township salted the roads for some reason. Just salt, not brine or anything else. Good use of taxpayer money.

Posted by: Dr Tom Feb 8 2017, 06:31 PM

QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 06:25 PM) *
Where is Dr. T? I need to sign off for a bit and get some valium. I'm even getting on my own nerves rolleyes.gif
Enjoy!


Home from work and reading like crazy to catch up. Emotions running a little high I see, but good times ahead. Rest up RT, going to be a long night.

Oh, and how are things looking for Philly?

I'll show myself out.

Posted by: Snowadelphia Feb 8 2017, 06:32 PM

QUOTE(TheProphecy @ Feb 8 2017, 06:31 PM) *
My township salted the roads for some reason. Just salt, not brine or anything else. Good use of taxpayer money.


They wanted to make sure the rain washed it away first.

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 06:32 PM

QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Feb 8 2017, 06:25 PM) *
would you mind linking me to that site? (and yes I tried googling it first)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 06:33 PM

QUOTE(Dr Tom @ Feb 8 2017, 06:31 PM) *
Home from work and reading like crazy to catch up. Emotions running a little high I see, but good times ahead. Rest up RT, going to be a long night.

Oh, and how are things looking for Philly?

I'll show myself out.



Belleville is where exactly? Close enough to Power's route?

Posted by: baltimorewisher86 Feb 8 2017, 06:34 PM

22Z HRRR through 18 (w/ ratios FWIW)

HRRR @ 18


 

Posted by: Snowadelphia Feb 8 2017, 06:34 PM

Not sure the last time I saw Bernie this jazzed. Has he been increasing his sets at the gym?

Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 29s29 seconds ago
More
Periscope coming in a few minutes.....Big THUMP coming..I am not exaggerating either...will go over accums

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 06:35 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 8 2017, 06:28 PM) *
And guys, it's the sarcasm I just don't like. Especially when one says "1-3" and is kidding. I was being serious about it. I'm been looking for a big snowstorm this whole winter, and I'm sure everybody is pretty dissapointed about our winter. Therefore, I want to know everything I can WHEN AND WHERE a big storm happens, such as this one. I don't want to come across a pushy, which I admit, I can be sometimes, but my curiosity tends to lead to pushiness, which is not where I want it to go. I hope you all understand.

Enjoy the storm.

~Jonathan

In time, it can be a badge of honor

As I've advised, many times, keep calm and nobody needs to get hurt (feelings).


Posted by: blizzard08 Feb 8 2017, 06:37 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 8 2017, 06:28 PM) *
And guys, it's the sarcasm I just don't like. Especially when one says "1-3" and is kidding. I was being serious about it. I'm been looking for a big snowstorm this whole winter, and I'm sure everybody is pretty dissapointed about our winter. Therefore, I want to know everything I can WHEN AND WHERE a big storm happens, such as this one. I don't want to come across a pushy, which I admit, I can be sometimes, but my curiosity tends to lead to pushiness, which is not where I want it to go. I hope you all understand.

Enjoy the storm.

~Jonathan
again, I feel like you're trolling us. It doesn't matter what you don't like. These seasoned posters can say what they want, scarcasm or not. You just have to forecast what's a joke or not. We ALL are looking for a big snow storm. So have a seat, relax, and whatever philly gets, it will get tomorrow.

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 06:37 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 06:33 PM) *
Belleville is where exactly? Close enough to Power's route?

It's a really nice area of CTP. Last time I was there, there were Whiporwills calling at dusk. Very serene.

Posted by: Snowadelphia Feb 8 2017, 06:37 PM

Just take a deep breath from time to time. I think that would benefit all involved. Things will work out one way or another.

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 8 2017, 06:28 PM) *
And guys, it's the sarcasm I just don't like. Especially when one says "1-3" and is kidding. I was being serious about it. I'm been looking for a big snowstorm this whole winter, and I'm sure everybody is pretty dissapointed about our winter. Therefore, I want to know everything I can WHEN AND WHERE a big storm happens, such as this one. I don't want to come across a pushy, which I admit, I can be sometimes, but my curiosity tends to lead to pushiness, which is not where I want it to go. I hope you all understand.

Enjoy the storm.

~Jonathan


Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 06:37 PM

Pretty solid line of precip continues to build in the west




Posted by: Dr Tom Feb 8 2017, 06:39 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 06:33 PM) *
Belleville is where exactly? Close enough to Power's route?


Mifflin County, about 30 miles SE of State College. My mailbox is safe from Power.

Posted by: SnowMan11 Feb 8 2017, 06:39 PM

NYC SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED TOMORROW

Posted by: tool483 Feb 8 2017, 06:40 PM

Bernie live on Periscope now!

https://www.periscope.tv/w/a2pSNjFETEtCRE5ueGVCRUp8MU1ZeE5Mcm9ndlJHd71dPapsbudmfwcWTnNexWSwNRxBdNXMIE1PDKvrCVV

Posted by: jdrenken Feb 8 2017, 06:40 PM

QUOTE(Snowadelphia @ Feb 8 2017, 05:34 PM) *
Not sure the last time I saw Bernie this jazzed. Has he been increasing his sets at the gym?

Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 29s29 seconds ago
More
Periscope coming in a few minutes.....Big THUMP coming..I am not exaggerating either...will go over accums


January storm he was stout

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 06:41 PM

Light rain and snow moving into western PA. PIT briefly had rain and changed over quickly.

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 06:41 PM

Ok, all valled up. No sign of Clap blink.gif blink.gif so I can post Accu. I show this b/c look at all the convection firing up on the south end. BERNIE PUMPING ME UP NOW1

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northeast-region/weather-radar

Posted by: RobB Feb 8 2017, 06:41 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 06:37 PM) *
Pretty solid line of precip continues to build in the west





Yep..I am seeing moderate snow with temps at 33.5 degrees...

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 06:42 PM

QUOTE(Dr Tom @ Feb 8 2017, 06:39 PM) *
Mifflin County, about 30 miles SE of State College. My mailbox is safe from Power.

It is not. He is fired up unsure.gif

Posted by: so_whats_happening Feb 8 2017, 06:43 PM

QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Feb 8 2017, 08:34 PM) *
22Z HRRR through 18 (w/ ratios FWIW)

HRRR @ 18


I like using that model for tracking of heaviest precip/banding. The precip map can always be extremely spotty like that as it tries to figure out the best banding locations, but it definitely gives a nice general idea.

still liking that 4-8 call out here but wouldnt mind more. Gotta watch how the precip shield develops.

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 06:43 PM

To those of you whom wandered where was UT? Yes, he was lubing the blower laugh.gif Now that's funny right there; I don't care who you are.

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 06:43 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Feb 8 2017, 06:41 PM) *
Yep..I am seeing moderate snow with temps at 33.5 degrees...



Some of the blowoff of the KY convection will get entrained into the system later today and get thrown across PA.

Posted by: MaineJay Feb 8 2017, 06:43 PM

QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Feb 8 2017, 06:30 PM) *
thank you! what are you thinking up there for yourself?



I'm torn, I'm expecting decent ratios, but these systems can keep just far enough away where there's some NW component to the winds, drying things out.

I'm thinking 3-6 for me 6-9 along the coast, tight gradient. I'm stay conservative with it, big bust potential either way. A jog of 10 miles either way could have real meaning.

Posted by: jdrenken Feb 8 2017, 06:44 PM

QUOTE(tool483 @ Feb 8 2017, 05:40 PM) *
Bernie live on Periscope now!

https://www.periscope.tv/w/a2pSNjFETEtCRE5ueGVCRUp8MU1ZeE5Mcm9ndlJHd71dPapsbumfwcWTnNexWSwNRxBdNXMIE1PDKvrCVV



He's doing a great job!

Side note... If I see any references to that kid Joey, _NEweather, that post will disappear.

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 06:45 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 06:43 PM) *
Some of the blowoff of the KY convection will get entrained into the system later today and get thrown across PA.

Wanting to pull an all nighter.

Mind willing, body not so much.

Posted by: HassayWx2306 Feb 8 2017, 06:45 PM

36 and starting to mix south of the city here in Pittsburgh precip was not suppose to start til 10-11 shield is filling in nicely almost seems stronger precip wise than expected

Posted by: grandpaboy Feb 8 2017, 06:45 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Feb 8 2017, 06:41 PM) *
Yep..I am seeing moderate snow with temps at 33.5 degrees...



Hey Rob..what are you looking to get out there...


Btw....stopped at store...fully stocked popcorn...ready for the night rolleyes.gif

Oh and that milk and bread thing...that was no joke tonight...really people.... mellow.gif


Posted by: LUCC Feb 8 2017, 06:46 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 8 2017, 06:28 PM) *
And guys, it's the sarcasm I just don't like. Especially when one says "1-3" and is kidding. I was being serious about it. I'm been looking for a big snowstorm this whole winter, and I'm sure everybody is pretty dissapointed about our winter. Therefore, I want to know everything I can WHEN AND WHERE a big storm happens, such as this one. I don't want to come across a pushy, which I admit, I can be sometimes, but my curiosity tends to lead to pushiness, which is not where I want it to go. I hope you all understand.

Enjoy the storm.

~Jonathan

Asking how much Philly is going to get every 2 minutes comes off as being 'childish' or just not wanting to accept the fact that Philly is getting 6-8+", you decide. Sit back, read the posts and learn something, watch the models and see how forecasters and those on this forum pick them apart, digest them and provide their educated feedback. Asking what Philly is getting so often will just make people ignore you. wink.gif

Posted by: Storms R us Feb 8 2017, 06:47 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Feb 8 2017, 06:13 PM) *
Quick indeed, but with snow rates...Does it matter? I like where you sit man...

Definitely enjoy it either way. Fret not at amounts and what models do. Just enjoy the snowfall which has been a rarity this season!



Rob- na you wouldn't like where I sit since I'm just south of Dover DE, we are expecting 1" or so of rain. It's about time the snow starved north get some love.

Posted by: baltimorewisher86 Feb 8 2017, 06:47 PM

QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Feb 8 2017, 06:43 PM) *
I like using that model for tracking of heaviest precip/banding. The precip map can always be extremely spotty like that as it tries to figure out the best banding locations, but it definitely gives a nice general idea.

still liking that 4-8 call out here but wouldnt mind more. Gotta watch how the precip shield develops.


yup... especially through 18, i use it only to see axis of heaviest snowfall, and compare with what the longer range and other mesos are showing... certainly not posting to take verbatim.

Posted by: jdrenken Feb 8 2017, 06:47 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 05:24 PM) *
Hugger! It's going outside BM, not inside (or so I heard) rolleyes.gif



Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 06:47 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 06:45 PM) *
Wanting to pull an all nighter.

Mind willing, body not so much.



With you on that. Does your office close for this?

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Feb 8 2017, 06:49 PM

7.3powerstroke... you able to post the 18z GEFS snowmaps. Curious to see how they compare to their op.

Posted by: LUCC Feb 8 2017, 06:49 PM

QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Feb 8 2017, 06:45 PM) *
Hey Rob..what are you looking to get out there...
Btw....stopped at store...fully stocked popcorn...ready for the night rolleyes.gif

Oh and that milk and bread thing...that was no joke tonight...really people.... mellow.gif

I work from home on Wednesdays and do my usual Shop Rite stop after dropping kids off, loaded up on fruits, veggies, meats, etc as usual. It wasn't that bad but I don't think news outlets made people aware until noonish so missed the rush.

Posted by: RobB Feb 8 2017, 06:50 PM

QUOTE(Storms R us @ Feb 8 2017, 06:47 PM) *
Rob- na you wouldn't like where I sit since I'm just south of Dover DE, we are expecting 1" or so of rain. It's about time the snow starved north get some love.



Ooops...Sorry bud...I meant to respond to StormTracker smile.gif My bad sir!

Posted by: RobB Feb 8 2017, 06:51 PM

QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Feb 8 2017, 06:45 PM) *
Hey Rob..what are you looking to get out there...
Btw....stopped at store...fully stocked popcorn...ready for the night rolleyes.gif

Oh and that milk and bread thing...that was no joke tonight...really people.... mellow.gif



With how fast the back side is moving into Indiana, I wouldn't expect more than an inch unless I get into some heavier banding. If I do see an inch, I will be happy. Heck, seeing the current coating on the grass is nice!

I am guessing 1 to 1.5 inches assuming it does not fall apart!

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 06:52 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 06:47 PM) *
With you on that. Does your office close for this?

Probably only a 2 hr delay I'm thinking.

Then again, we'll know better when the Roosters crow tomorrow a.m. It's tough to read this Guv.

Posted by: Storms R us Feb 8 2017, 06:53 PM

QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Feb 8 2017, 06:34 PM) *
22Z HRRR through 18 (w/ ratios FWIW)

HRRR @ 18



With those low amounts it looks further off the coast.

Posted by: 7.3powerstrokediesel Feb 8 2017, 06:53 PM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 8 2017, 06:49 PM) *
7.3powerstroke... you able to post the 18z GEFS snowmaps. Curious to see how they compare to their op.



I hate my username. Wanted to change it, never got response from the higher powers. Lol


Tony



 

Posted by: MaineJay Feb 8 2017, 06:58 PM

Rainbow top


Posted by: JDClapper Feb 8 2017, 06:58 PM

QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 06:17 PM) *
Have to try and time my Accu radar posts when radar cop Clap ain't on blink.gif Would that be while his kids are still up???


QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 06:41 PM) *
Ok, all valled up. No sign of Clap blink.gif blink.gif so I can post Accu. I show this b/c look at all the convection firing up on the south end. BERNIE PUMPING ME UP NOW1

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northeast-region/weather-radar


Enough of this trash radar RT. Enough.
Sincerely,
-Radar Po Po

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 06:17 PM) *
Clapper - you see this




I DID! I was alerted by a ghost of Christmas past while I was watching WNEP .. Kurt just got done saying about the Advisory in IPT and lower totals, and 1 minute later he brings up the warning and the page apparently auto-updates for him and he appeared a little surprised by the expansion.

Woops. Priceless stuff, while eating Seasame Chicken and Egg Rolls.

Posted by: JDClapper Feb 8 2017, 06:59 PM

I saw HRRR had Williamsport under 6".

What do you guys think for just east of Williamsport?

ph34r.gif


Posted by: stilko4 Feb 8 2017, 07:00 PM

If only this was a slower mover, many would have 2plus feet.
Maybe in a future storm.

Posted by: so_whats_happening Feb 8 2017, 07:00 PM

QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Feb 8 2017, 08:47 PM) *
yup... especially through 18, i use it only to see axis of heaviest snowfall, and compare with what the longer range and other mesos are showing... certainly not posting to take verbatim.


For sure looks like a nice band sets up from about BWI north to harrisburg and then NE to about scranton region. Would not be surprised to see 1-2" rates from that as that moves through for about an hour or two. Before then with just after changeover, if there is one, will be the real heavy rates not great dendritic growth until that later band but will none the less pile up quick. Probably on average 2" rates maybe higher with that convective like snow.

Posted by: Blizz Feb 8 2017, 07:00 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 8 2017, 06:59 PM) *
I saw HRRR had Williamsport under 6".

What do you guys think for just east of Williamsport?

ph34r.gif


How much for Philly???

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 07:01 PM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 8 2017, 06:58 PM) *
Rainbow top




Great clip, really can see everything blossoming to the west. Gotta get these temps down tonight before cloud cover insulates it. Light rain in SW PA a little disconcerting at the moment. SNE....your goose appears to be cooked.

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 07:02 PM

QUOTE(stilko4 @ Feb 8 2017, 07:00 PM) *
If only this was a slower mover, many would have 2plus feet.
Maybe in a future storm.



Absolutely....just a ripe moisture situation and a moderate wave moving through. Had this dug, phased, and cutoff off we would have had "the big one"

Posted by: MaineJay Feb 8 2017, 07:03 PM

QUOTE(stilko4 @ Feb 8 2017, 07:00 PM) *
If only this was a slower mover, many would have 2plus feet.
Maybe in a future storm.



First world problems.

Posted by: JDClapper Feb 8 2017, 07:03 PM

QUOTE(Blizz @ Feb 8 2017, 07:00 PM) *
How much for Philly???


Hmm, not sure. Great question.

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 07:03 PM

JD - you still got that deadhorse animation in the files?


Posted by: TheProphecy Feb 8 2017, 07:04 PM

QUOTE(stilko4 @ Feb 8 2017, 08:00 PM) *
If only this was a slower mover, many would have 2plus feet.
Maybe in a future storm.


Since I moved into this apartment, I've been wishing against snow, lol. So much sidewalk to shovel...

Posted by: JDClapper Feb 8 2017, 07:04 PM

Gotta go grocery shop (already planned before this) .. and yeah, we need milk.

I feel dumb.

Seeing myself out, literally.

Posted by: My2Sons Feb 8 2017, 07:05 PM

QUOTE(Blizz @ Feb 8 2017, 07:00 PM) *
How much for Philly???

A coating-3" on the southern half of the city and 3-6" north of Vine Street

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 07:06 PM

Really nice for once this winter to not have to worry about temps, at least for the LV. Who would have thought, after having to put on sun screen because of the high sun angle ohmy.gif for the 6 mile walk today. If I had a set, I would pull an all nighter and do a snow walk. They are the best.

Posted by: killjoy27 Feb 8 2017, 07:07 PM

What time should the next round of advisories come out? Within an hour or so?

Posted by: StormTracker Feb 8 2017, 07:07 PM

QUOTE(My2Sons @ Feb 8 2017, 07:05 PM) *
A coating-3" on the southern half of the city and 3-6" north of Vine Street

Okay now you're just mocking me: I get it

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 07:07 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 07:02 PM) *
Absolutely....just a ripe moisture situation and a moderate wave moving through. Had this dug, phased, and cutoff off we would have had "the big one"

I am actually thrilled with what we are getting in this wretched pattern. Plus, I was worried that storm # 1 would rob some of the zest for this one. So much for that theory.

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 07:07 PM

QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 07:06 PM) *
Really nice for once this winter to not have to worry about temps, at least for the LV. Who would have thought, after having to put on sun screen because of the high sun angle ohmy.gif for the 6 mile walk today. If I had a set, I would pull an all nighter and do a snow walk. They are the best.



What happened to your set?

Posted by: PlanetMaster Feb 8 2017, 07:09 PM

QUOTE(Blizz @ Feb 8 2017, 07:00 PM) *
How much for Philly???




Posted by: TC1 Feb 8 2017, 07:10 PM

44.7F right now and slowly dropping. The precip is supposed to move in between 1 A.M. and 3 A.M.

The race continues.


Edit: Ooooooo. My very own page topper laugh.gif

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 07:11 PM

QUOTE(TC1 @ Feb 8 2017, 07:10 PM) *
44.7F right now and slowly dropping. The precip is supposed to move in between 1 A.M. and 3 A.M.

The race continues.



A minor question....it say's Prescott 65 degrees on your message.....somewhere else?

Posted by: SnowMan11 Feb 8 2017, 07:12 PM

RPM has 12 + for the area with a pocket of 16+ for LI

Posted by: LUCC Feb 8 2017, 07:13 PM

QUOTE(Blizz @ Feb 8 2017, 07:00 PM) *
How much for Philly???


Posted by: MaineJay Feb 8 2017, 07:13 PM

C'mon, the IMBY posts can be a nuisance, but I think the point has been made. Can we move on from the over saturation of sarcastic IMBY posts, they are clogging the thread, and a bit excessive. No need to pile on..

Posted by: mtksurfer Feb 8 2017, 07:13 PM

Blizzard warning for eastern LI had been posted

Posted by: STEVE392 Feb 8 2017, 07:15 PM

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=316696

that is pure sex right there. bullseye right over me in nenj

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 07:15 PM

Du Bois and Johnstown airports reporting snow, Altoona rain. Moving in.

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 07:16 PM

It's almost unbelievable how these two don't, at least shake hands, or conjoin.



Posted by: ecanem Feb 8 2017, 07:16 PM

Next 17 hours


Posted by: killjoy27 Feb 8 2017, 07:16 PM

QUOTE(mtksurfer @ Feb 8 2017, 07:13 PM) *
Blizzard warning for eastern LI had been posted


The Suffolk Blizzard Warning was posted at around 3PM. Sorta old news now

Posted by: LUCC Feb 8 2017, 07:16 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 07:16 PM) *
It's almost unbelievable how these two don't, at least shake hands, or conjoin.



You never know.......

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 07:17 PM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Feb 8 2017, 07:12 PM) *
RMP has 12 + for the area with a pocket of 16+ for LI

What access do you use for RPM model

Posted by: clindner00 Feb 8 2017, 07:17 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 07:15 PM) *
Du Bois and Johnstown airports reporting snow, Altoona rain. Moving in.

I can confirm the light rain in altoona right now. It's just sprinkling but feels like temps are dropping quickly.

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 07:18 PM

QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 8 2017, 07:16 PM) *
You never know.......



If you are rooting for snow in PA you don't want that to happen......the Cape would get smacked worse, but the energy of the Kentucky system won't be stolen on this run, and a reason why to some extent we are not seeing the more traditional jump, with attending precip shadows normally seen.

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 07:19 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 07:07 PM) *
What happened to your set?

Wife took em. Isn't that part of the vows?

Posted by: Beers1 Feb 8 2017, 07:19 PM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Feb 8 2017, 07:12 PM) *
RMP has 12 + for the area with a pocket of 16+ for LI


Anthony is that banding setting up through LI and eastern CT on the RMP? Any pics?

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 07:20 PM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 8 2017, 07:13 PM) *
C'mon, the IMBY posts can be a nuisance, but I think the point has been made. Can we move on from the over saturation of sarcastic IMBY posts, they are clogging the thread, and a bit excessive. No need to pile on..

Thank you!

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 07:20 PM

Staying inbounds with the <10Hr HRRR output and it, within that time frame, seems to be coming in a bit juicier.

Again the output after Hr 10 starts to degrade IMHO and I've seen it with wild increases and decreases after Hr12 for sure.

ST and I have had that discussion once or twice (if he can remember that)

Posted by: LUCC Feb 8 2017, 07:22 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 07:18 PM) *
If you are rooting for snow in PA you don't want that to happen......the Cape would get smacked worse, but the energy of the Kentucky system won't be stolen on this run, and a reason why to some extent we are not seeing the more traditional jump, with attending precip shadows normally seen.

Well I am in NJ...... dry.gif

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 07:23 PM

QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 07:19 PM) *
Wife took em. Isn't that part of the vows?



Better or for worse. Nothing mentioned about disaster

Posted by: baltimorewisher86 Feb 8 2017, 07:24 PM

FWIW - usually hate the RPM, but doesnt seem so foreign to the other models...

RPM

 

Posted by: ecanem Feb 8 2017, 07:24 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 08:20 PM) *
Staying inbounds with the <10Hr HRRR output and it, within that time frame, seems to be coming in a bit juicier.

Again the output after Hr 10 starts to degrade IMHO and I've seen it with wild increases and decreases after Hr12 for sure.

ST and I have had that discussion once or twice (if he can remember that)


I am within the 10 hr HRRR range. If it validates, Pittsburgh is going to be in for a surprise tomorrow.

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 07:24 PM

QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 8 2017, 07:22 PM) *
Well I am in NJ...... dry.gif



Robin Hood, eh?

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 07:25 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 07:18 PM) *
If you are rooting for snow in PA you don't want that to happen......the Cape would get smacked worse, but the energy of the Kentucky system won't be stolen on this run, and a reason why to some extent we are not seeing the more traditional jump, with attending precip shadows normally seen.

Great point, because without a blocking High to the N. we would not see the Fuji dance/stall etc. PA, especially my zones, would definitely get donut holed.

Wait! Maybe I should be hoping for that

(ducks fellow CTP forum members)

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 07:27 PM

Pretty sure the 32F line is on the move, at a decent pace, now.

Posted by: TC1 Feb 8 2017, 07:28 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 07:11 PM) *
A minor question....it say's Prescott 65 degrees on your message.....somewhere else?


Aye. I'm in east-central PA. I didn't like the idea of posting my town's zip code when I signed up, so I chose somewhere that I used to live.

Posted by: NorEaster07 Feb 8 2017, 07:29 PM

Good luck guys and be safe. This is gonna be wicked.

I'm finding it hard to believe the speed and the totals. Its like 1-2" per hr rates for almost 10 hours.


Some maps... Blizzard warning now for Long Island and MA Capes.




Southern NY and CT

QUOTE
317 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

* Snow Accumulations...8 to 12 inches...locally higher.

* Locations...New York City, Nassau County, Southern Connecticut,
the Lower Hudson Valley and Northeastern New Jersey.

* Hazard type...Heavy snow.

* Timing...Late tonight through Thursday.

* Impacts...Hazardous/dangerous travel due to snow covered roads
and poor visibilities. Blowing and drifting snow is likely.
Local power outages with downed trees and powerlines possible.

* Winds...North 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Visibilities...one quarter mile or less at times.

* Temperatures...Falling into the 20s.



Long Island


QUOTE
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard
Warning...which is in effect from 3 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday. The
Winter Storm Warning is no longer in effect.

* Snow Accumulations...10 to 14 inches...locally higher.

* Locations...Suffolk County.

* Hazard type...Heavy snow.

* Timing...Late tonight through Thursday.

* Impacts...Hazardous/dangerous travel due to snow covered roads
and poor visibilities. Blowing and drifting snow is likely.
Local power outages with downed trees and powerlines possible.

* Winds...North 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Visibilities...one quarter mile or less at times.

* Temperatures...Falling into the 20s.









Surface map






Last 4 hour loop as the sun goes down.




Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 07:29 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 07:18 PM) *
If you are rooting for snow in PA you don't want that to happen......the Cape would get smacked worse, but the energy of the Kentucky system won't be stolen on this run, and a reason why to some extent we are not seeing the more traditional jump, with attending precip shadows normally seen.

good stuff!

Posted by: Snobal Feb 8 2017, 07:30 PM

The system is moving to fast for the higher totals to verify, if you are in the 8-12" I would expect more like 5-8"

Posted by: StormTracker Feb 8 2017, 07:30 PM

How much snow for the The City of Brotherly HATE (from all of u)

Posted by: chaser915 Feb 8 2017, 07:30 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 07:23 PM) *
Better or for worse. Nothing mentioned about disaster



laugh.gif

Posted by: grandpaboy Feb 8 2017, 07:30 PM

rolleyes.gif

The 850 layer is just ridiculous. Organization thereof, thermal gradient, rapid evolution the past 6 hours. This storm goes full blast.



Cranky

Posted by: Blizz Feb 8 2017, 07:30 PM

QUOTE(Snobal @ Feb 8 2017, 07:30 PM) *
The system is moving to fast for the higher totals to verify, if you are in the 8-12" I would expect more like 5-8"



...

Posted by: so_whats_happening Feb 8 2017, 07:31 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 09:20 PM) *
Staying inbounds with the <10Hr HRRR output and it, within that time frame, seems to be coming in a bit juicier.

Again the output after Hr 10 starts to degrade IMHO and I've seen it with wild increases and decreases after Hr12 for sure.

ST and I have had that discussion once or twice (if he can remember that)


Yes was noticing the precip shield was not quite matching the hrrr

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 07:31 PM

QUOTE(TC1 @ Feb 8 2017, 07:28 PM) *
Aye. I'm in east-central PA. I didn't like the idea of posting my town's zip code when I signed up, so I chose somewhere that I used to live.



Not trying to be nosey and I understand privacy concerns, but in this forum it's hard to have context to what you observe if we don't know where you are reporting from. You probably would need to be specific or more clear in that regard so we can all understand. Thanks.

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 07:31 PM



Posted by: stilko4 Feb 8 2017, 07:33 PM

QUOTE(Snobal @ Feb 8 2017, 07:30 PM) *
The system is moving to fast for the higher totals to verify, if you are in the 8-12" I would expect more like 5-8"

No... a few yrs ago li had 11 inches in a 4 or 5 hr storm, which featured a band of 3-5" snowfall rates. Once this hits the water it'll deepen quickly, combined with high lifting, will create lots of snow per hr (2-3/hr in places)

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 07:33 PM

QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Feb 8 2017, 07:30 PM) *
rolleyes.gif

The 850 layer is just ridiculous. Organization thereof, thermal gradient, rapid evolution the past 6 hours. This storm goes full blast.



Cranky



QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 07:31 PM) *


Interesting that Cranky mentioned that because, as you see from my last post, I was just pondering the 850 conditions.

Posted by: sw03181 Feb 8 2017, 07:34 PM

I had to do a double-take on that RPM image. It looked like it was from an old storm.

Posted by: Blizz Feb 8 2017, 07:35 PM

23z HRRR

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 07:35 PM

QUOTE(stilko4 @ Feb 8 2017, 07:33 PM) *
No... a few yrs ago li had 11 inches in a 4 or 5 hr storm, which featured a band of 3-5" snowfall rates. Once this hits the water it'll deepen quickly, combined with high lifting, will create lots of snow per hr (2-3/hr in places)

Add in the steep lapse rates, and it's even more apparent that the current forecasts are much more solid than some random dude's post on this forum.

Posted by: risingriver Feb 8 2017, 07:35 PM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 8 2017, 07:13 PM) *
C'mon, the IMBY posts can be a nuisance, but I think the point has been made. Can we move on from the over saturation of sarcastic IMBY posts, they are clogging the thread, and a bit excessive. No need to pile on..

C'mon. The I'm annoyed by the IMBY posts clogging the thread posts are annoying. Can we move on and pile on people for something besides sarcasm? After all, it's a second language for most in here.

ohmy.gif

Who loves ya, MJ? rolleyes.gif


On another note, looks like Sterling moved advisories further south? Do I need a Jim Carey meme because there's still a chance for us south of DC not to witness the mass murder of billions of hapless snowflakes?

ST? Have you said stop that lately?

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Feb 8 2017, 07:37 PM

QUOTE(Snobal @ Feb 8 2017, 07:30 PM) *
The system is moving to fast for the higher totals to verify, if you are in the 8-12" I would expect more like 5-8"

Depends where you are. Interior ratios will be high. 12-15:1

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 07:37 PM

QUOTE(risingriver @ Feb 8 2017, 07:35 PM) *
C'mon. The I'm annoyed by the IMBY posts clogging the thread posts are annoying. Can we move on and pile on people for something besides sarcasm? After all, it's a second language for most in here.

ohmy.gif

Who loves ya, MJ? rolleyes.gif
On another note, looks like Sterling moved advisories further south? Do I need a Jim Carey meme because there's still a chance for us south of DC not to witness the mass murder of billions of hapless snowflakes?

ST? Have you said stop that lately?


Bet you didn't realize those initials have a double meaning.

Posted by: LUCC Feb 8 2017, 07:39 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 8 2017, 07:30 PM) *
How much snow for the The City of Brotherly HATE (from all of u)


Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 07:40 PM

CTP is doing pretty frequent updates to this map


Posted by: bradjl2009 Feb 8 2017, 07:40 PM

QUOTE(ecanem @ Feb 8 2017, 07:24 PM) *
I am within the 10 hr HRRR range. If it validates, Pittsburgh is going to be in for a surprise tomorrow.

I noticed the Pittsburgh NWS expanded the advisories again a little further west of Pittsburgh. I think we have a shot at 6 inches. At the moment I'm expecting 5 though. The highest I think we have any chance of getting would be 7 inches if this gets going a little sooner than expected. There are parts of Indiana and Ohio getting a minor snow that weren't supposed to get anything to it's possible.

Posted by: Undertakerson Feb 8 2017, 07:41 PM

See you when the roosters crow (at the Thunder snow? wink.gif )


Posted by: stilko4 Feb 8 2017, 07:41 PM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 8 2017, 07:37 PM) *
Depends where you are. Interior ratios will be high. 12-15:1

Pretty much if youre not in dc, philly or south jersey, you're getting 8" plus. From inland, to the coast, it's pretty uniform besides a heavy band that will set up somewhere.

Posted by: Supertyphoon Feb 8 2017, 07:41 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 07:41 PM) *
See you when the roosters crow (at the Thunder snow? wink.gif )



See ya UTS!

Posted by: stilko4 Feb 8 2017, 07:42 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 07:41 PM) *
See you when the roosters crow (at the Thunder snow? wink.gif )


Maybe on li well get some as the loworst explodes off shore.

Posted by: risingriver Feb 8 2017, 07:45 PM

QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 8 2017, 07:37 PM) *
Bet you didn't realize those initials have a double meaning.

Stubborn toadhead? Subpar three iron?
Way ahead of ya, ohmy.gif

Posted by: rtcemc Feb 8 2017, 07:45 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 07:41 PM) *
See you when the roosters crow (at the Thunder snow? wink.gif )

I will be there!!

Posted by: The Day After Tommorow Feb 8 2017, 07:46 PM

2-3"/hr snow rates is going to turn I-84 and I-87, as well as the Taconic, into nightmares. Going to be a long 24 hours for this county's first responders.

Posted by: cyclone31 Feb 8 2017, 07:47 PM

Can't believe I played 14 holes of golf today with the temp. hitting 62. Very happy a good part of the storm happens during daytime hours tomorrow.

Posted by: bradjl2009 Feb 8 2017, 07:48 PM

State College just expanded advisories further northwest into North-centeral PA.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

PAZ005-006-010-011-091245-
/O.EXA.KCTP.WW.Y.0007.170209T0300Z-170209T1500Z/
McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF Bradford, Coudersport, St. Marys,
Ridgway, and Emporium
740 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in STATE COLLEGE has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow...which is in effect until 10 AM EST
Thursday.

* Snow will overspread the area and continue overnight. Heaviest
snow from midnight into the predawn hours. Rates of 1 inch per
hour possible.

* Heaviest snow ends by daybreak with snow tapering off by mid
morning.

* Total snow accumulation 3 to 6 inches.

* Hazardous travel conditions on snow covered roads with low
visibility.

* Longer commute times Thursday morning with reduced speeds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation reminds motorists
to adjust speeds based on driving conditions and to take it slow
in ice and snow.

Posted by: blizzard08 Feb 8 2017, 07:48 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 8 2017, 07:30 PM) *
How much snow for the The City of Brotherly HATE (from all of u)

It's always sunny in Philadelphia... So, none. 😭😂😭😂

Posted by: UTWeather Feb 8 2017, 07:49 PM

QUOTE(bradjl2009 @ Feb 8 2017, 07:40 PM) *
I noticed the Pittsburgh NWS expanded the advisories again a little further west of Pittsburgh. I think we have a shot at 6 inches. At the moment I'm expecting 5 though. The highest I think we have any chance of getting would be 7 inches if this gets going a little sooner than expected. There are parts of Indiana and Ohio getting a minor snow that weren't supposed to get anything to it's possible.



Latest HRRR/Rap look to decrease amounts just slightly in parts of Fayette. I am not certain but I think that my NWS forecast went from 4-8 overnight to 3-5.

Posted by: Storms R us Feb 8 2017, 07:49 PM

QUOTE(ecanem @ Feb 8 2017, 07:16 PM) *
Next 17 hours




Seems more north

Posted by: phils1 Feb 8 2017, 07:50 PM

Dynamics already playing a role...numerous lightning strikes over the Tennessee Valley...more on evening observations: https://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2017/2/8/730-pm-some-evening-observations


 

Posted by: bradjl2009 Feb 8 2017, 07:52 PM

QUOTE(UTWeather @ Feb 8 2017, 07:49 PM) *
Latest HRRR/Rap look to decrease amounts just slightly in parts of Fayette. I am not certain but I think that my NWS forecast went from 4-8 overnight to 3-5.

You're under a warning for 6 to 10 inches which was just updated an hour ago. I'd lean more to the 6 than the 10 in you're in the lower elevations, but this is going as planned. The most recent HRR actually slightly upped the amounts for me giving close to 6 here.

Posted by: bradjl2009 Feb 8 2017, 07:54 PM

QUOTE(Storms R us @ Feb 8 2017, 07:49 PM) *
Seems more north

I thought so too. Amounts looked slightly lower in areas near the Mason Dixon line. A solid 5-10 inch storm for much of PA though still.

Posted by: Storms R us Feb 8 2017, 07:55 PM

QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 8 2017, 07:29 PM) *
Good luck guys and be safe. This is gonna be wicked.

I'm finding it hard to believe the speed and the totals. Its like 1-2" per hr rates for almost 10 hours.
Some maps... Blizzard warning now for Long Island and MA Capes.




Southern NY and CT




Long Island


Looks more north than before and the front seems to have stalled at the mouth of the Chesapeake

Barometer is 29.57 and rising if I'm reading it correctly






Surface map



Last 4 hour loop as the sun goes down.



Posted by: JDClapper Feb 8 2017, 07:56 PM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 8 2017, 07:13 PM) *
C'mon, the IMBY posts can be a nuisance, but I think the point has been made. Can we move on from the over saturation of sarcastic IMBY posts, they are clogging the thread, and a bit excessive. No need to pile on..



Posted by: yamvmax Feb 8 2017, 07:56 PM

I still think some of us have to take 25% off the snowmaps being shown. The ground and air is still very warm. I'm not saying its not gonna be wonderful for most, just thinking snow ratios will be a bit lower, along with melting as it accumulates.

Posted by: Storms R us Feb 8 2017, 07:56 PM

QUOTE(phils1 @ Feb 8 2017, 07:50 PM) *
Dynamics already playing a role...numerous lightning strikes over the Tennessee Valley...more on evening observations: https://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2017/2/8/730-pm-some-evening-observations



This evening when it was on the east side of Tenn there was reports of hail and strong winds

Posted by: Beers1 Feb 8 2017, 07:56 PM

Anyone have any pics for recent RGEM? Read it was a bomb

Posted by: so_whats_happening Feb 8 2017, 07:58 PM

evaporative cooling ftw taking place right now.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

No reports coming out of those regions for precip looking at skew t

Layers from about 975mb up have dp's at or below freezing so if precip were to start right now would be rain but a nice dry push coming in at the lower levels is making its way across PA from west and north.

Gonna be a close one for a lot of folks along PA/MD border for the rain/ snow issue. Nice push for colder at 850s and starting to get its act together at 925mb

Posted by: grandpaboy Feb 8 2017, 07:57 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 8 2017, 07:51 PM) *
Guess I'm seeing less than 8



At some point...STK...you need to take it for what it is...

There's more than enough information for YBY to have an idea what you might get...

I always go with...expect less...if it's more...than your more than happy...

Let it happen...all systems go...

Posted by: WINTERSTORMWARNING Feb 8 2017, 07:58 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 8 2017, 07:51 PM) *
Guess I'm seeing less than 8


you may be in the heavy zone, no one knows exactly where that is gonna set up..+ or - 30 miles...how many times do we have to see that to learn

Posted by: Storms R us Feb 8 2017, 07:58 PM

QUOTE(yamvmax @ Feb 8 2017, 07:56 PM) *
I still think some of us have to take 25% off the snowmaps being shown. The ground and air is still very warm. I'm not saying its not gonna be wonderful for most, just thinking snow ratios will be a bit lower, along with melting as it accumulates.



I've stated that early but will have to see as the storm unloads.

Posted by: stilko4 Feb 8 2017, 07:58 PM

QUOTE(yamvmax @ Feb 8 2017, 07:56 PM) *
I still think some of us have to take 25% off the snowmaps being shown. The ground and air is still very warm. I'm not saying its not gonna be wonderful for most, just thinking snow ratios will be a bit lower, along with melting as it accumulates.


Snow ratios for us won't be like they are inland...usually they are lower. The ratios will get better as the storm goes on, but it will pour snow here for a while... 14 is my call

Posted by: Snobal Feb 8 2017, 07:59 PM

QUOTE(yamvmax @ Feb 8 2017, 07:56 PM) *
I still think some of us have to take 25% off the snowmaps being shown. The ground and air is still very warm. I'm not saying its not gonna be wonderful for most, just thinking snow ratios will be a bit lower, along with melting as it accumulates.

I agree with you. its to warm and to fast for high amounts. Im thinking maybe subtract about 35% off the highest totals.

Posted by: Jethro Tull Feb 8 2017, 08:01 PM

Off topic, Slap Shot is on the NHL channel now.

Posted by: Snowadelphia Feb 8 2017, 08:01 PM

RGEM is pretty good. Looks like it wants to paint a sweet spot on LI. 16"- 18" pops of color near the Hamptons

Posted by: stilko4 Feb 8 2017, 08:02 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 8 2017, 07:51 PM) *
Guess I'm seeing less than 8

It could be 8....probably not more, I think you'll miss the best dynamics. Don't hold me to that, I'm really not that familiar with philly (except for rude sports fans smile.gif, I kid)

Posted by: Snowadelphia Feb 8 2017, 08:03 PM



 

Posted by: UTWeather Feb 8 2017, 08:03 PM

QUOTE(bradjl2009 @ Feb 8 2017, 07:54 PM) *
I thought so too. Amounts looked slightly lower in areas near the Mason Dixon line. A solid 5-10 inch storm for much of PA though still.



Ya, that is what I noticed. We were in the sweet spot forthe last two days. Hope it is not a trend.

Posted by: PlanetMaster Feb 8 2017, 08:04 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Feb 8 2017, 07:30 PM) *
How much snow for the The City of Brotherly HATE (from all of u)


Dont take it to heart, no one here wishes any bad or hate upon you. But the truth is there were literally thousands of maps, charts, graphs, and everything else posted in the main thread for all to get a good idea of what is expected/possible in their own respective areas. All you need to do is look for yourself and come to your own conclusion. NO ONE here can tell you how much you are going to get or how much I am going to get, only time will tell. Whether its 2 or 12 inches or 6 or 16 inches doesn't matter. Only mother nature has that answer and shes not telling, its up to us to wait and find out.

Funny, I went back and read the first 20 or so pages of the main thread just to see the evolution of things and I saw so many people saying they would be happy with a couple inches, or just to see white falling from the sky, and how good it felt to actually have a storm to track. I have been looking at brown grass for a month now and I am so pleased that this opportunity came and is fulfilling many of our hopes and dreams in an otherwise dull winter. Thats good enough for me. Im in the Blizzard warning on LI and to see just 5 inches when I wake up tomorrow and snow falling from the sky is gold and I am satisfied with just that, anything else is gravy.

Also want to thank the regs here who go through great lengths posting info, opinions, and scientific evaluations of the situation. It is great to have these guys take the time to do this for us all. They are in no way obligated to, so a great and humble thanks to them.

For a teenage weather geek its tough, we were all there. Kids at that age think following the weather is strange or weird for a young man but its science so the heck with them. Learn and one day you will telling us whats going on.

Hope you do well in philly and everyone else but if not winter is still here...

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