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> July 22 MidAtl/NE Severe Weather, Forecasts and OBS
phillyfan
post Jul 20 2016, 01:45 PM
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QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NY AND
PA TO NORTHERN OH/INDIANA/IL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WESTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO DAMPEN SOME ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WELL-FORECAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND PERHAPS
REACHING ND/SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z SATURDAY. WHILE AN ELONGATED
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM CA TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THIS REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MT FRIDAY
WITH THIS LOW MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT. EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW VARIES AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...GIVEN
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.

...NORTHEAST STATES...
NY INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING IN
THAT PART OF THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
DESTABILIZATION THIS FORECAST PERIOD...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AREAS OF CLOUDINESS FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE EML
AND SOME SURFACE HEATING...MUCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE COLD FRONT SUGGEST ORGANIZED STORMS
WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS DEEP-LAYER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

...SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH WESTWARD EXTENT FROM NY/PA TO NORTHERN
IL. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR WEAKENS WITH WESTWARD EXTENT SUGGESTING
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.


This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jul 20 2016, 01:46 PM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19

Pea Size Hail: 2/25
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Undertakerson
post Jul 20 2016, 02:25 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jul 20 2016, 02:45 PM) *

Attached Image

That update has dragged the southern edge of the marginal risk area - more down towards our region.

Given that this is the date I am hosting "the three stooges" at a golf outing (me, as the 4th stooge), it had better hold off until after Noon. (We have an 8 a.m. Tee time)

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jul 20 2016, 02:25 PM
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Undertakerson
post Jul 20 2016, 03:37 PM
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Sun-Mon not looking too bad a set up either.
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MaineJay
post Jul 21 2016, 05:32 AM
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GYX, I'd say this is some of the strongest wording I have seen this summer.

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Chance of high impact Wx: Increasing confidence for severe
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. There is a chance for
more isolated severe storms on Saturday.


The strong ridging at 500mb over most of the CONUS and the
western Atlantic will hold through the long term forecast period,
with the one weakness in the ridge still straddling the intl
border from the Great Plains to New England. This should make for
a more active period with the threats of showers/storms at least
every other day. Moving lower in the atmosphere, it`s hard to much
air below normal at 850 mb outside of the Arctic circle thru this
period, so expected temps to continue to run mostly above normal.
As we get into the low levels, flow becomes fairly stagnant, with
only small differences in air masses on either side of sfc fronts,
and very little dry air to to tap into to lower humidity levels
much. So, in summary, expect very warm and humid conditions over
the weekend and into the middle of next week, with frequent
potential for scattered showers and storms.

The most interesting part of the extended will be Friday night as
ongoing convection Friday afternoon to our west has the potential
to organize into convective line or MCS and move across the
region, especially between 0Z and 6Z. Whether a line forms or not
there will be enough instability and presence of elevated mixed
layer, along with strong bulk shear to continue the severe threat
thru the evening hours.
Fri night will be warm and humid with lows
mostly in the mid to upper 60s, and maybe not dropping below 70 in
urban areas of southern NH.

On Saturday, frontal boundary looks to stall or slowly move south across
the CWA as the 500 mb trough hangs back a bit. It will be a
possible that with presence of frontal boundary and potential NW
flow a loft, could see more strong to severe storms on Saturday,
but for now, will not mention in zones/grids as confidence is too
low
. Highs Saturday will be hotter south of the front in southern
NH where they will reach into the low 90s, with TDs in the mid to
upper 60s, which will produce heat indices in the mid 90s.
Elsewhere it will remain on the warm and humid side.

It starts clear out later Sunday night as the front finally pushes
just south of the CWA and fades out. Some drier air moves in , and
will push dew points down to the upper 50s to lower 60s late
Saturday night into Sunday. Sunday should be dry with highs back
in the 80s to around 90 in southern NH. Sfc humidity increases Sun
night and Monday with another threat for showers storms as another
front approaches and tries to cross the region Monday night or
Tuesday. Temps and humidity may drop off a bit on Wednesday.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


--------------------
"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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kristenpoo
post Jul 22 2016, 09:01 AM
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I remember as a kid lines and lines of severe storms with rotation would blow through Upstate NY directly from West to East. The last three years have been abysmal with storms being really scattered and lackluster.

Is there something that changed that's now blocking what we had in the late 90's? (I know, I'm super young laugh.gif)

Weatherbell HRRR below looks very scattered with nothing of interest except in PA.



This post has been edited by kristenpoo: Jul 22 2016, 09:12 AM
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phillyfan
post Jul 22 2016, 11:23 AM
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Sigh at the blob of rain that was up in NW PA earlier dropping straight south. Why couldn't that come east for a change. Just outside of the slight risk today too. rolleyes.gif

Attached Image


This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jul 22 2016, 11:26 AM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19

Pea Size Hail: 2/25
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kristenpoo
post Jul 22 2016, 11:26 AM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jul 22 2016, 12:23 PM) *
Sigh at the blob of rain that was up in NW PA earlier dropping straight south. Why couldn't that come east for a change. Just outside of the slight risk today too. rolleyes.gif

Attached Image


I'm right inside it and I doubt I'll be seeing anything today.

Great day for Saratoga Race Track to open!
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STEVE392
post Jul 22 2016, 11:40 AM
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QUOTE(kristenpoo @ Jul 22 2016, 09:01 AM) *
I remember as a kid lines and lines of severe storms with rotation would blow through Upstate NY directly from West to East. The last three years have been abysmal with storms being really scattered and lackluster.

Is there something that changed that's now blocking what we had in the late 90's? (I know, I'm super young laugh.gif )

Weatherbell HRRR below looks very scattered with nothing of interest except in PA.



as I kid i remember storms all the time during the summer. Would be watching TV and that alert noise would come on and then the scrolling text on the screen. I can't remember the last time that happened.
But like you, the last 5 years it has gotten so infrequent to see a good storm.
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kristenpoo
post Jul 22 2016, 11:48 AM
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QUOTE(STEVE392 @ Jul 22 2016, 12:40 PM) *
as I kid i remember storms all the time during the summer. Would be watching TV and that alert noise would come on and then the scrolling text on the screen. I can't remember the last time that happened.
But like you, the last 5 years it has gotten so infrequent to see a good storm.


Yeah they would be really mean storms with heavy lightning. Haven't seen the sort in about 5 years.
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kristenpoo
post Jul 23 2016, 03:24 PM
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Looks like today is bringing in the right conditions for Severe weather in NE/Upstate NY. Was seeing rotation in a cell in Saratoga. Poor people at the races!



This post has been edited by kristenpoo: Jul 23 2016, 03:26 PM
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NorEaster07
post Jul 23 2016, 06:34 PM
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Last 4 hours.

Yellow outlines are Thunderstorm Warnings. I do notice there are less reds now. Weakening. I assume racing the sunset. but nice to see this coverage of beneficial rains

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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 23 2016, 09:11 PM
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Got some storms down into PA today had pea size hail at work on the north end of lancaster city. Southern portions of the city received nickel to quarter size hail. We had probably about a .50" of rain and some wind helped cool us down.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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STEVE392
post Jul 23 2016, 09:42 PM
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My son and his mother are on vacation down in Cap May County and they got hammered early tonight. I was in Sandy Hook earlier and there was lots of heat lightning going on. Pretty cool.
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NorEaster07
post Jul 24 2016, 05:16 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jul 23 2016, 07:34 PM) *
Last 4 hours.

Yellow outlines are Thunderstorm Warnings. I do notice there are less reds now. Weakening. I assume racing the sunset. but nice to see this coverage of beneficial rains



And to continue..

This is crazy to see it just vanish and evaporate into nothing over MA.


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Undertakerson
post Jul 24 2016, 06:11 AM
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WGAL 8 Storm Team Fb page












QUOTE
WGAL News 8 Storm Team

1 hr
..

It's a quiet start to the morning so far after severe storms in parts of our area yesterday afternoon. I just got off the phone with the National Weather Service and they have not made an official decision on whether or not to do a storm survey to determine whether or not a tornado touched down in Manor Township, Lancaster county. The decision to survey will be made tomorrow.
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Undertakerson
post Jul 24 2016, 10:39 AM
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12z 4K NAM has piqued my interest for tomorrow's potential. More so because of the directional element to the storms it has moving into this region. The approach from the s/w is always worrisome, as opposed to those which have to move s/e through the ridges of the Apps.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rloop.html
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STEVE392
post Jul 24 2016, 04:27 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jul 24 2016, 05:16 AM) *
And to continue..

This is crazy to see it just vanish and evaporate into nothing over MA.




Sea Breeze?
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