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idecline
Posted on: Yesterday, 05:13 PM


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'El-Lipsis' weather is not responsible for the fact that the shower threat did not materialize...'It's Immaterial'

...warm weather ahead as 'gigantic' Spring high moves in...

Attached Image

...be ready for warm temps Saturday thru Monday...
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2326777 · Replies: · Views: 81,936

idecline
Posted on: Yesterday, 05:09 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
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QUOTE(idecline @ Apr 18 2018, 07:44 PM) *
Mesilla, NM on 04/19/2018
Pecos, TX on 04/20/2018


Pecos, TX on 4/20/2018

Rosebud, TX on 4/21/2018

Petal, MS on 04/22/2018

Hahira, GA 04/23/2018


  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2326775 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

idecline
Posted on: Apr 18 2018, 08:28 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...an interesting 'Southeastern Pacific Enhanced' satellite view from AccuWeather...lots of sub-tropical "juice"
Attached Image
...and a quick look at Day 3...
Attached Image

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326749 · Replies: · Views: 356

idecline
Posted on: Apr 18 2018, 08:08 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...low pressure 'trough' and front are still to our west...sliding right along the coast...it looks like Southern Santa Clara county and Santa Cruz Mountains will be in line for some showers overnight...spreading south and inland...
Attached Image

...the WV loop shows the moisture and energy is still decent...it is just a matter of how close to the coast these showers get before moving south towards Point Conception...
Attached Image

...after a little bit of unstable and cloudy weather, a large high will build in for the weekend...with possible high winds by Sunday...
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...offshore winds will heat up the area quickly on the weekend...even warmer temperatures are forecast for Southern California...

  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2326748 · Replies: · Views: 81,936

idecline
Posted on: Apr 18 2018, 07:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,256
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866



Mesilla, NM on 04/19/2018

Pecos, TX on 04/20/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2326746 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

idecline
Posted on: Apr 17 2018, 08:16 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(idecline @ Apr 16 2018, 05:44 PM) *
OPC Pacific 48hr:

Attached Image

...the next wave of energy is well to our west...let's see if the high builds a ridge?...or caves in again to NW flow... unsure.gif

... rolleyes.gif ...looks like the jet stream will bring in another frontal system to the Bay Area tomorrow...the focus looks to be south of the Golden Gate...with a 'jet streak' appearing at the base of this quickly accelerating 'trough'...the South Bay may be looking at decent rains into the Santa Cruz Mts. and south into the Santa Lucia Range from Big Sur towards Pt. Conception...if this all pans out... dry.gif
Attached Image
...the 'jet streak' look is often a sign of an invigoration of the colder air pushing down into the base of the trough...
Attached Image
...with plenty of 'apparent' moisture to work with...this could be an exciting little interlude before the 'block'
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image

...a mighty big 'spring-like' ridge looks to build over the weekend...with temperatures soaring into the high 70's and low 80's...
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2326678 · Replies: · Views: 81,936

idecline
Posted on: Apr 17 2018, 08:03 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...in response to the above noted 'buckling' in the Atlantic...just in time a very large ridge(blocking) will set up late this week across the NE Pacific...sending a very vigorous (and cool to cold) storm 'over the top' bringing unseasonably cold temperatures(again!) to the upper MidWest/Great Lakes region...warmer flow and strong storms in the NM/TX, then the Lower Plains, ArkLaTex, and into the Deep South by the weekend.
OPC 96hr surface:
Attached Image

and 96hr 500mb(upper air):
Attached Image


...and here is an edit from WPC Extended Disco:
QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1110 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2018

VALID 12Z FRI APR 20 2018 - 12Z TUE APR 24 2018

...FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES-PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST U.S. SPRING
STORM THREAT...

QUOTE
...WEATHER/THREATS HIGHLIGHTS...

FROM FRI INTO SAT THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE
ROCKIES. SOME CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
WITH SPC OUTLOOKS OVER RECENT DAYS HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIAL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SLIGHTLY WARMER TREND FOR LOW
LEVEL TEMPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS HAS REDUCED SOMEWHAT THE POTENTIAL
DURATION OF ANY SNOWFALL AWAY FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AFTER
SAT THE STEADY PROGRESSION OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES AND LEADING INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST.

BEHIND CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW PRESSURE, THE NORTHEAST WILL SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW ON FRI FOLLOWED BY A
TREND TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT PUSHING INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SOME TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
FRONTAL WAVINESS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS.

AFTER DEPARTURE OF THE FOUR CORNERS STORM THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE WEST SHOULD SEE MULTIPLE DAYS OF WARM TEMPS WITH MANY AREAS
5-15F ABOVE NORMAL BY SUN-TUE. COLDEST ANOMALIES OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S., UP TO 15-25F BELOW NORMAL, WILL LIKELY EXIST IN THE FRI-SUN
TIME FRAME FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND. EASTERN STATES WILL BE
CHILLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS WELL. RAINFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH TUE WHILE TEMPS FARTHER NORTH RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAUSCH
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326676 · Replies: · Views: 50,878

idecline
Posted on: Apr 17 2018, 07:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Kokomo, IN on 04/18/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2326675 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

idecline
Posted on: Apr 16 2018, 06:12 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Member No.: 22,866


...much cooler than average temperatures in California as a trough dips down from the NW...cool to 'modified' cold air will be streaming across the CONUS for the next week (or so) as it looks to be a 'zonal' flow with embedded waves (perturbations) in the atmosphere bringing storminess and perhaps igniting more severe weather into the late week...especially if the STJ hook-up brings initial instability into the mix...the first wave looks to bring lee cyclogensis into the plains by Thursday...with possible severe weather into the weekend for the 'favorite' areas...
Attached Image

Attached Image


... rolleyes.gif ...and the BSR...looks like it did many times this past 'winter'...we are definitely not out of the woods yet... huh.gif

WPC QPF's:
Attached Image


...wet, wet, wet over the ArkLaTex region and into the SouthEast!...long needed moisture for many areas...
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326602 · Replies: · Views: 50,878

idecline
Posted on: Apr 16 2018, 05:58 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Hebron, NE on 04/17/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2326601 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

idecline
Posted on: Apr 16 2018, 05:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...the rain that 'over-eager' Bay Area forecasters hyped did not arrive until afternoon yesterday in most areas..
Attached Image
...today has been the very unstable cold air behind the 'front'...with numerous thundershowers including a heavy hailstorm in the hills right above Oakland, CA...more unstable showers should spin through mostly the South Bay until late tonight...cool and breezy tomorrow...with maybe a chance for rain later this week...no 'agreement' on this yet...
OPC Pacific 48hr:

Attached Image


...the next wave of energy is well to our west...let's see if the high builds a ridge?...or caves in again to NW flow... unsure.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2326600 · Replies: · Views: 81,936

idecline
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 07:37 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(idecline @ Apr 12 2018, 11:58 PM) *
Pochahontas, AR on 04/13/2018
Aniston, AL on 04/14/2018


changing to:

Demopolis, AL on 04/14/2018

Apex, NC on 04/15/2018

North Star, DE on 04/16/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2326035 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

idecline
Posted on: Apr 12 2018, 11:58 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 19,256
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From: uncertain
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Pochahontas, AR on 04/13/2018

Aniston, AL on 04/14/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2325889 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

idecline
Posted on: Apr 11 2018, 06:22 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...thanks for the lesson...idee understands some...mostly by looking at satellite pictures since 8 yr. old (50 yrs)...and the rotational veering is the 'potential' for a meso-cyclone to rotate as a 'storm'...i never looked at skew-T's until you posted them...but i am lazy except for a quick glance at them...even short term 'stacked' winds could create a strong short term tornado...especially in what looks to a very unstable environment...(colder than 'normal' air rushing into this system...with a 'snowstorm' to follow! for some)

...hopefully it is not a epic outbreak...idee sees a lot of potential very damaging winds...and perhaps tumbling winds in the mid-atmosphere...creating a few to several potent meso-cyclones?

...ps...Dr. Forbes might always be holding a few 'aces' that he doesn't want to reveal... wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325725 · Replies: · Views: 8,884

idecline
Posted on: Apr 11 2018, 06:10 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Vermillion, SD on 04/12/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2325724 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

idecline
Posted on: Apr 11 2018, 06:00 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...even so...some AccuWeather mets are 'predicting' a 'lot' of tornadoes... dry.gif

From:https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...ern-us/70004655

QUOTE
AccuWeather Storm Warning Meteorologists are estimating that between two and four dozen tornadoes may be reported with this multiple-day event. Most of the storms capable of producing tornadoes are likely to be from late Friday afternoon to Friday evening.


idee's coloring rolleyes.gif

...and this WV loop looks very ominous indeed...IMHO
Attached Image

...a high in Mexico with an arcing sub-tropical moisture feed and a strong low heading for the Rockies...well?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325722 · Replies: · Views: 8,884

idecline
Posted on: Apr 11 2018, 05:50 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 11 2018, 02:44 PM) *
So I understand SPC's enhanced issuance and glad they didn't go with hatched 30%. I think an enhanced risk for damaging winds is reasonable.

But what I don't understand is Dr. Forbes' 5 TORCON. Not only does his discussion not add up to his forecast (giving reasons why the instability could be lower), what I see on the NAM and GFS doesn't look to warrant a 5.

I don't see the tornado threat being that high... especially supercellular tornado threat... due to the VBV profile. The VBV should destroy/largely disrupt rotating updrafts, and by definition, a supercell is a thunderstorm with a rotating updraft.

I'm not saying supercells can't happen with VBV, because that's not true, but they don't last that long. So tornadogenesis would have to happen very quickly for a supercellular tornado threat... and any tornado it produces wouldn't last long.

If it weren't for that, this would be a much scarier setup. But I just don't see this being much of a tornado day other than perhaps some overnight tornadoes with the squall that eventually evolves in the east half of Arkansas into Mississippi and western Tennessee.

As merely an undergrad, I don't feel comfortable with completely dismissing Dr. Forbes. I'll just assume that this is one of the many things where there's more to it that a legend like Dr. Forbes knows that I don't, but I have my concerns.


VBV is a term idee doesn't know by heart...and what, where and how it deteriorates tornado chances?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325721 · Replies: · Views: 8,884

idecline
Posted on: Apr 10 2018, 06:54 PM


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...for my amusement... huh.gif

Quincy, IL on 04/11/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2325651 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

idecline
Posted on: Apr 10 2018, 06:33 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...a very narrow line of showers are moving through the Bay Area...light amounts of rain...maybe .10 inch for some...
Attached Image
...the clouds to our west...and the moist air driven by the jet stream look to make inroads Wednesday night into Thursday...with potential rain throughout the area...let's see if our high pressure agrees like it has lately.
OPC 48hr:
Attached Image


...it looks as if the large high way out west will stay for awhile...meaning chances for the tail end of fronts to drag through for the next few days...maybe this pattern will continue to bring rain into the State for awhile wink.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2325646 · Replies: · Views: 81,936

idecline
Posted on: Apr 9 2018, 07:27 PM


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...a quick look at SST's in the Pacific show a long fetch of warmer than average sea surface temperatures from just west of Hawaii right to the Baja/California border...could this be a 'signal' of continued sub-tropical moisture being pulled to the NE into California ('atmospheric river') and into the Texarkana region...hmm???
Attached Image


...yes 'La-Nina' has not completely let go it's grip of the 'flow' in the equatorial latitudes...in the mid-latitudes?

...that is IMHO the Big ? going into late April... wink.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2325553 · Replies: · Views: 81,936

idecline
Posted on: Apr 9 2018, 07:12 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Ocoee, FL on 04/10/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2325549 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

idecline
Posted on: Apr 9 2018, 06:52 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...it looks like our 'wimpy' high pressure is again going to give way to a series of impulses from the North Eastern Pacific Ocean...climatologically speaking April is not a big rainfall month for us...this (and last year) have defied climatology over and over again...so here comes light showers to the north on Tuesday...and perhaps rainy Bay Area late week...
Attached Image
...a warm front is already impacting our skies as high clouds filter in...and warm mid-70's became very humid feeling this late afternoon...doesn't seem to be a lot of energy with the first 'wave'...adequate moisture tho'...?
Attached Image
....and 48hr OPC Pacific:
Attached Image

...this seems to show a 'progressive' flow of energy into the West...a front moving past to our south with low(s) to our NW
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image

...by late week the high pressure seems to set up a 'ridge' over our area into the Great Basin...and with the 'ominous' giant Pacific high lurking well to the west...appearing to set up another 'blocking' regime... unsure.gif

...more omissions to come late week in this 'thread'...where 'omission' is our mission... laugh.gif ..."El-Lipsis" weather ! wink.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2325543 · Replies: · Views: 81,936

idecline
Posted on: Apr 6 2018, 07:55 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Apr 6 2018, 03:38 PM) *
I'll take it
CTP mentions the blocking - but it's not downstream, it's upstream - as I previously noted.

So, what else do we know about such blocks? I maintain the largest impact they have is on modeling of the downstream, which seems obvious, of course. Thus, the "cold" outlook, seen by the models MAY have two issues to overcome.

First, how is anyone to trust (beyond D3) their output, when we have seen (last long term blocking episode) that we can't?

Second, we remain in a, relatively, active pattern despite the blocking - as the eastern anchor (E PAC trough) spits out a couple pieces AND some also make it over the ridge of the block and become entrained in the northern jet. Thus, I believe it is the storminess of the pattern, more so than the actual long wave features (shortwaves with frequency, IOW) that drive most of the negative temp anomalies.

Using 12z GEFS spaghetti plots, (RH panel) note the operational run (white lines) have a significant dip in the eastern US. However, there are a majority of members displaying well north - not nearly as "deep". So too the red lines (ensembles of the Subtropical jet) are north of the operational idea of the STJ.

Also - looking to the LH panel, we get the idea of a warm up in the 10 day as heights tend to be a bit "raised" in the east - note too the idea of a cool New England, a product partly due to BDCF or simply the active northern jet, pushing systems (in rapid fashion I believe) across Canada.
[attachment=355247:f240.gif]

Now, let me clarify - I'm not saying we get so warm as to break out the shorts and fire up the barbies (well, I do know some who will regardless) but I am buying the notion that we turn (and perhaps stay) at seasonal average levels. Granted, that won't "seem" as if it's huge relief - but, as I stated up front, I'll take it.


FWIW:

OPC 96hr; (500mb)

Attached Image


...idee out west sees the 'blocking' pattern looking very similar to earlier this year...and my friends (the upper level 3 Stooges(or Amigos for the younger crowd laugh.gif ) low pressures in the Aleutians/GOA look to 'control' the weather in the CONUS until at least mid-month...this 'blocking' pattern may continue until all the colder air stacked to the north has finally been modified...the high pressures off of the West Coast have not been the main feature...IMHO...it was the triumvirate lows rotating forcing blocking into the high Canadian latitudes that have ruthis years winter into spring...

warning: another idee rant...#29,087
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2325283 · Replies: · Views: 50,878

idecline
Posted on: Apr 6 2018, 07:26 PM


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...most of the wind and rain are into the North Bay Area...with heavy showers in the Santa Cruz Mountains...
Attached Image
...it seems like the focus of the 'stream' of moisture is narrow and lifting north for now...as the low spins a secondary front should scoot through into tomorrow morning with colder air behind...possible thunderstorms...
Attached Image
...tomorrow mornings forecast from OPC shows the 'last' wave of intense showers poised to move through...
OPC 24hr:
Attached Image

...this should keep Saturday wet with an occasional downpour with embedded hail and winds perhaps...lurking for early week...? another storm?
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image

...if our high pressure system that builds in Sunday into Monday is pushed south (again) we may have a multi-day influx of showers mid-week... unsure.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2325277 · Replies: · Views: 81,936

idecline
Posted on: Apr 4 2018, 06:59 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...high clouds are already filtering over our area as a warm front ahead of the main storm rolls through...
Attached Image
...several bands of frontal 'waves' appear to be lining up to roar through starting late Thursday from the west.
OPC 48hr:
Attached Image

...with a rapidly intensifying low moving just to our north and a corresponding front (with tropical connex) trailing behind...we should have generous rainfall amounts across the Northern half of the State...

...a reinforcing colder low to our north will gradually push down and perhaps enhance rainfall amounts into Saturday and Sunday...
Attached Image


...several low pressure systems behind this storm may be shunted north by high pressure early next week...
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


rolleyes.gif maybe the high pressure will be shoved south again...and some more late season rains can arrive...?
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2324851 · Replies: · Views: 81,936

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