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> December 19-20 MidAtlantic/NE Winter Storm, Forecast Thread Closed; Please See "OBS"
davidt08
post Dec 17 2009, 08:42 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Dec 17 2009, 08:40 PM) *
Those numbers are the total.


those are 24 hour totals i think..

ending at hour 66..right?
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Removed_Member_baltimore_big_daddy_*
post Dec 17 2009, 08:43 PM
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QUOTE(berg_one @ Dec 17 2009, 08:37 PM) *
Looking at the futurecast, and other stuff, here is my prediction:

Philadelphia: 1-3"
NYC: 1-3"
DC: 4-7"
Southern NJ/ Dover, DE area: 8-12"

Map drops tommorow.
add about 5 - 10 inches to those totals
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SnowFTW
post Dec 17 2009, 08:43 PM
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This snow map is the first I've made for this storm.. Considering the track of the GFS and NAM this is what might happen IMO. Coastal areas expect little mixing
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Samir Nuriyev

Mid Atlantic Forecaster and Map Maker

"Never underestimate the weather, there's a reason it's unpredictable."
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gloryboy1417
post Dec 17 2009, 08:44 PM
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QUOTE(OHweather2 @ Dec 17 2009, 08:39 PM) *
Thanks, will do laugh.gif


Thanks. I must say I'm not as all in as the NAM, somewhere between the ECM and GGEM/UKMET, which is still a HECS for a lot of areas.

The models a couple days ago (at least a few of them) were trying to hint at a bit of a Miller B type development. This was when they weren't breaking down the PV in time, so they would slide the STJ energy out to sea and then try to form another low as the OV S/W hit the coast. Now that all signs point to the PV indeed breaking down/splitting, they show an earlier phase and more consolidated Miller A type low. Anyways, this is the first time we've had this setup in years, so I'm sure someone who grew up in the 70s (I hope I'm not making you too old here laugh.gif ) will have fond memories of this type of thing, because that happened a lot more back then in those winters, and maybe a couple times in the 90s too.


Miller B Jim? Seems like a Miller A to me all the way.
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albanyweather
post Dec 17 2009, 08:44 PM
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QUOTE(greenteam13 @ Dec 17 2009, 08:36 PM) *
Haha i was looking at it the same way...idk were right on the fence right now...

Most of the short range models are now showing us getting under a little bit of snow. Right now I would venture 1-3" because its going to be cold. If the globals start moving that way we could be looking at more. laugh.gif

Did you know our forcast low tomorrow morning is 3 huh.gif Been to busy watching the storm blink.gif

This post has been edited by albanyweather: Dec 17 2009, 08:44 PM


--------------------
Snowfall 2017-2018: 66.6"
2016-2017: 58.7"
2015-2016: 13.1"
2014-2015: 72.1"
2013-2014: 79"
2012-2013: 48.8"
2011-2012: 23.3"
2010-2011: 80.2"
Seasonal Normal: 60.3"
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Removed_Member_CTWeatherStorm_*
post Dec 17 2009, 08:45 PM
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Ok folks,
I think 00z NAM will be a good run like Tyler said, We pretty much are nearing a final solution and 00z NAM should just bring us some slight refinements in terms of track and etc.
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tick629
post Dec 17 2009, 08:45 PM
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is it just me or does it look like its forming an eye of some sort...
http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Satellit...cation=USKS0112


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sw03181
post Dec 17 2009, 08:45 PM
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latest surface map. 1006 low headed towards New Orleans.
Attached Image


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 60.95"


[size=2]2014-2015 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31) :
Total snowfall: 40 /- 6"
Actual: 14.25"

11/14: 0.25"
11/26: 2.5"
11/27: T
12/2: T
12/11: 0.5"
12/20: T (flurries)
12/21 2.0
1/2: T (flurries)
1/3: 1"
1/6: T (dusting)
1/7: T (flurries)
1/9: 3"
1/14: T (dusting)
1/24: 5"
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Removed_Member_OHweather2_*
post Dec 17 2009, 08:46 PM
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QUOTE(gloryboy1417 @ Dec 17 2009, 08:44 PM) *
Miller B Jim? Seems like a Miller A to me all the way.

Re-read it. Right now I am expecting a Miller A, along with most of the models. I was referring to a couple odd runs of like the GGEM and JMA a couple days ago that tried to pop a Miller B while sliding the main storm OTS because the other poster brought it up.
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DCBlizzard
post Dec 17 2009, 08:46 PM
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QUOTE(berg_one @ Dec 17 2009, 08:37 PM) *
Looking at the futurecast, and other stuff, here is my prediction:

Philadelphia: 1-3"
NYC: 1-3"
DC: 4-7"
Southern NJ/ Dover, DE area: 8-12"

Map drops tommorow.


I know people are going to say the DC prediction of 4-7 inches is crazy but from a historical perspective, it is EXTREMELY hard to get 12+ inches of snow IN the CITY. NW suburbs is a different story.

I think somewhere around 8 inches in the city of DC.
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Removed_Member_KDPWeatherfan_*
post Dec 17 2009, 08:47 PM
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QUOTE(SnowFTW @ Dec 17 2009, 08:43 PM) *
This snow map is the first I've made for this storm.. Considering the track of the GFS and NAM this is what might happen IMO. Coastal areas expect little mixing


Nice. The only county in CT that gets over a foot is the county i live in. This is to good to be true, but i hope it is. Every time i see the updated models, this storm just keeps on amazing me with its possible potential. Im excited for this one.
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StrickMatic
post Dec 17 2009, 08:48 PM
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QUOTE(tick629 @ Dec 17 2009, 08:45 PM) *
is it just me or does it look like its forming an eye of some sort...
http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Satellit...cation=USKS0112



Thats just a break in clouds
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greenteam13
post Dec 17 2009, 08:48 PM
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QUOTE(albanyweather @ Dec 17 2009, 08:44 PM) *
Most of the short range models are now showing us getting under a little bit of snow. Right now I would venture 1-3" because its going to be cold. If the globals start moving that way we could be looking at more. laugh.gif

Did you know our forcast low tomorrow morning is 3 huh.gif Been to busy watching the storm blink.gif

lol...i just turned on twc and the local came on and i saw that and was like holy *bleep*! But yah the trend seems to be favoring us...


--------------------
2017/2018 Snowfall Total: 67"
2016/2017 Snowfall Total: 71 1/2"
2015/2016 Snowfall Total: 16 1/2"
2014/2015 Snowfall Total: 78"
2013/2014 snowfall total: 73 1/2"
2012/2013 snowfall total: 53 1/2"
2011/2012 snowfall total: 27 1/2"
2010/2011 snowfall total: 85"
2009/2010 snowfall total: 52"
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kevin
post Dec 17 2009, 08:49 PM
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A Weather Channel graphic shows snow piling up on Saturday, or snow moving upwards out of a cloud positioned on the ground? I don't know what to believe any more.


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davidt08
post Dec 17 2009, 08:50 PM
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can someone explain to me why weather.com's snow map is so disappointing? it only brings good snows to southwest va. all the other models are showing good snows for the dc area.

anyone know whats up with them being so conservative? 3-6 inches for dc area? really?
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RobB
post Dec 17 2009, 08:50 PM
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NAM has initialized....
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Superstorm93
post Dec 17 2009, 08:50 PM
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Beautiful!


18z NAM
NYC:17"


PHIL:19"



--------------------
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Poconos Blizzard
post Dec 17 2009, 08:50 PM
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QUOTE(tick629 @ Dec 17 2009, 08:45 PM) *
is it just me or does it look like its forming an eye of some sort...
http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Satellit...cation=USKS0112


well it looks like it is getting a negative tilt.


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SnowFTW
post Dec 17 2009, 08:50 PM
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QUOTE(KDPWeatherfan @ Dec 17 2009, 08:47 PM) *
Nice. The only county in CT that gets over a foot is the county i live in. This is to good to be true, but i hope it is. Every time i see the updated models, this storm just keeps on amazing me with its possible potential. Im excited for this one.

Ive been doing these maps for a little over a year now and to say the least i try to put as much info in it as possible to make sure it goes by correctly . It mgiht change according to what GFS shows


--------------------
Samir Nuriyev

Mid Atlantic Forecaster and Map Maker

"Never underestimate the weather, there's a reason it's unpredictable."
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JManYeah
post Dec 17 2009, 08:50 PM
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0z NAM has initialized!!! Here we go! tongue.gif


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Total Snow 2011: Trace
Philaburbia Weather Blog
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