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> April 29-30th Thunderstorms/Rain, MidAtl/NE possible severe weather
so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 28 2017, 11:27 PM
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Not sure if the title is correct but you get the point. There is a stalled front draped across the region that should later go into a warm front lifting north for tomorrow. Tomorrow is a tricky forecast for areas just north of the PA/MD border if we manage to clear out the rains and convection that looks like it may come through a little later we stand a decent chance of making it into the mid 80's, im really curious to see what happens with this as it will decide whether or not a complex will be able to form and hit us tomorrow afternoon according to HRRR.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 28 2017, 11:33 PM
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http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=NJ_Pen...amp;overDim=100


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phillyfan
post Apr 28 2017, 11:49 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 29 2017, 12:27 AM) *
Not sure if the title is correct but you get the point. There is a stalled front draped across the region that should later go into a warm front lifting north for tomorrow. Tomorrow is a tricky forecast for areas just north of the PA/MD border if we manage to clear out the rains and convection that looks like it may come through a little later we stand a decent chance of making it into the mid 80's, im really curious to see what happens with this as it will decide whether or not a complex will be able to form and hit us tomorrow afternoon according to HRRR.


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Looks like we should get some decent rain tonight. Just had a small shower roll through a little while ago.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: Apr 28 2017, 11:49 PM


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Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6"

Total: 6"
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 29 2017, 12:00 AM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Apr 29 2017, 12:49 AM) *
Looks like we should get some decent rain tonight. Just had a small shower roll through a little while ago.


Yea with PWATS relatively high and fairly saturated column it wont be hard to tap into some heavy rains at time. Curious to see what comes from the stuff firing in WV may just miss the heaviest to our south but would not be surprised if some places get close to an inch from this. Tomorrow again will be interesting with that little complex and how that develops. Looking more and more like a wind threat with maybe the outside chance on the southern side of a tornado spinning up.


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phillyfan
post Apr 29 2017, 12:11 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 29 2017, 01:00 AM) *
Yea with PWATS relatively high and fairly saturated column it wont be hard to tap into some heavy rains at time. Curious to see what comes from the stuff firing in WV may just miss the heaviest to our south but would not be surprised if some places get close to an inch from this. Tomorrow again will be interesting with that little complex and how that develops. Looking more and more like a wind threat with maybe the outside chance on the southern side of a tornado spinning up.

We shall see, looks like plenty more chances going beyond tomorrow too.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6"

Total: 6"
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WEATHERFAN100
post Apr 29 2017, 01:39 AM
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Incoming...

QUOTE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF PERRY...LANCASTER...
YORK...ADAMS...FRANKLIN...CUMBERLAND...JUNIATA...L
BANON...DAUPHIN...
AND SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM EDT...

At 215 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of gradually
strengthening thunderstorms along a line extending from Spruce Hill
to Bloserville to near Pine Grove Furnace to near Paramount-Long
Meadow. Movement was east at 55 mph.

Very heavy rain of 1 to 2 inches is expected over a 90 minute period.
Pea size hail and wind gusts in excess of 45 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Parkville, Manheim, Hanover, Myerstown, Ephrata, Palmyra, Colonial
Park, Progress, Lebanon, Akron, Hummelstown, Millersville, Carlisle,
Chambersburg, Columbia, Enola, Shippensburg, Mechanicsburg, East
Petersburg and Elizabethtown.


http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?...29#.WQQ1OvT3anM

This post has been edited by WEATHERFAN100: Apr 29 2017, 01:40 AM


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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 29 2017, 02:14 AM
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No hail but some crazy lightning going on for 3am! Heavy rain right now with winds 25-30mph


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WEATHERFAN100
post Apr 29 2017, 02:25 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 29 2017, 03:14 AM) *
No hail but some crazy lightning going on for 3am! Heavy rain right now with winds 25-30mph

Heckuva light show out there!


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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 29 2017, 02:41 AM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFAN100 @ Apr 29 2017, 03:25 AM) *
Heckuva light show out there!


Tomorrow is going to be interesting for sure if we can manage this with meager cape and little forcing, mainly was convergence driven of deep moisture. Lets see if we can get some sun tomorrow and if we do this should be quite fun with a more potent s/w entering the region along the front.

Oh by the way welcome to high dps as well thanks to this rain.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 29 2017, 04:06 AM
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Worried not only about our potential tomorrow now but as well with temps. We may stay at upper 60's low 70's if that complex moving through WV continues east unabated. This will then just give us a steady rain to the north, sometimes heavy which may have some convective potential.

Things could change but its not looking too great for the forecasted temps in many places of low to mid 80's.


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Undertakerson
post Apr 29 2017, 05:28 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 29 2017, 05:06 AM) *
Worried not only about our potential tomorrow now but as well with temps. We may stay at upper 60's low 70's if that complex moving through WV continues east unabated. This will then just give us a steady rain to the north, sometimes heavy which may have some convective potential.

Things could change but its not looking too great for the forecasted temps in many places of low to mid 80's.

I can't say that I agree with the temp assessment. The upper levels are not all that cool looking. Once that complex moves through, the conditions seem to improve rapidly and with ever stronger solar influence, timing during the best part of the afternoon, temps should rebound quickly.

The shortwave trigger is not very deep and the other elements (outside of humidity) such as lift, etc - not really all that impressive. A tale of two days within one, in my opinion.

I'm not saying your call is incorrect, only that I disagree. For all I know, your call may end up being absolutely correct and I'm the one out in left field.

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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 29 2017, 07:29 AM
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Shame thought that complex could still tap into that elevated cape we have out there but once it rolled off the mountains it lost its gusto. Oh well

Yea I'm honestly not sure the temps get there if we manage to rid of this next cloud batch from WV then I could see sun breaking through to get us maybe low 80s but seeing as of now not much above 75. Gotta see how those clouds burn off. Getting some nice cape build up out in OH and Western pa where that system coming out of in Indiana may cause something across the area later tonight.


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st80ugfd80
post Apr 29 2017, 07:51 AM
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On and off sun here in central Montgomery County, PA. It is awfully muggy out there!


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SnowMan11
post Apr 29 2017, 08:22 AM
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The storms this morning were crazy


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2017-2018 Snowfall

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