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> May 4 MidAtl/NE Severe Weather, Short Range [0-3 Days Out] forecasts and discos
phillyfan
post May 4 2018, 09:28 AM
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What no thread for this today:



Edit: I just realized this is my first post since mid April. In this case Hello to you all again.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: May 4 2018, 09:30 AM


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Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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snowlover2
post May 4 2018, 03:55 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ May 4 2018, 10:28 AM) *
What no thread for this today:



Edit: I just realized this is my first post since mid April. In this case Hello to you all again.

Not only a threat but its now a moderate risk for the west half of NY.


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# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

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FireworkWX03
post May 4 2018, 05:47 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 4 2018, 04:55 PM) *
Not only a threat but its now a moderate risk for the west half of NY.

I'm a little shocked by the MDT upgrade. I guess if the parameters are in place you roll with it, but what I'm seeing in terms of reports are very strong non-thunderstorm winds out of Ontario. No TOR warnings thus far. Anyone in upstate NY or New England that can report? The thunderstorms themselves just don't appear impressive but you can't always rely on radar.
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 4 2018, 05:52 PM
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QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ May 4 2018, 06:47 PM) *
I'm a little shocked by the MDT upgrade. I guess if the parameters are in place you roll with it, but what I'm seeing in terms of reports are very strong non-thunderstorm winds out of Ontario. No TOR warnings thus far. Anyone in upstate NY or New England that can report? The thunderstorms themselves just don't appear impressive but you can't always rely on radar.

Moderate risk upgrade was for wind, not tornadoes. Seeing how widespread the severe warnings are in the region, that was a good call. But the enhanced risk for tornadoes? I don't understand that. Speed shear is great (as usual), but directional shear was pretty lame, there were veering-backing winds aloft, and the atmosphere was quite dry. Obviously a great setup for low-topped squalls though.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 4 2018, 05:56 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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FireworkWX03
post May 4 2018, 06:20 PM
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The tornado part is definitely what threw me off. This almost resembles a November gale more than a late spring squall with the non-thunderstorm wind component.

A ground stop is in place at Toronto Pearson International Airport. Unfortunately reports of injuries and at least one death. So definitely not something to mess around with.
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stretchct
post May 4 2018, 06:55 PM
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Well since there's a thread....

Radar
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Lightning is very active up north.
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--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
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Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
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2012-2013 64.5"
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phillyfan
post May 4 2018, 07:03 PM
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Nothing but sprinkles 3 different times today. No rain since Saturday for my area.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: May 4 2018, 07:04 PM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 4 2018, 07:23 PM
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Fun fact: there's been more tornado warnings in south Texas (1; no categorical risk for tornadoes) than in the Northeast (0; enhanced risk for tornadoes)

Edit: just checked the Albany radar... there might be a few spinups in the squall. No tornado warnings issued for them as of right now. Still though, this is pushing into the marginal risk for tornadoes.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 4 2018, 07:28 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 4 2018, 07:33 PM
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Yeah I definitely see 2 places where there should be a tornado warning. The southern one should've been tornado warned like 10 minutes ago.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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PlanetMaster
post May 4 2018, 08:02 PM
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Northern end really active, nice squall line marching through.



Was thinking SNE and Northern MA would be spared due to clouds today capping the daytime heating but the cold core quite vigorous with this system. Dont expect much here at the coast as its in the low 60's now and a chilly ESE breeze but may get a some left over rains which oddly enough we now need after 5 days of warm and bone dry weather.


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STEVE392
post May 4 2018, 09:28 PM
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Storm we had on May 3rd was decent I guess. Had strong winds with very quick moving rain. No thunder or lightning. Nothing here on May 4th.
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telejunkie
post May 4 2018, 10:25 PM
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After getting nearly blanked from these two days, tonight squall line provided tons of fireworks. Finally back in service after almost two hours of clearing downed trees off the roads. Luckily had two neighboring fire depts come over to assist. Our town was completely impassable just after the squall came through, plenty of lightning too...


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
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PlanetMaster
post May 4 2018, 10:29 PM
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Pretty much what I expected, nothing for areas east of CPA, stable cooler air just squashed everything. The energy up through central and Northern NY and NNE was about all that could be expected from this front. Just happy to get on the other side of that front for some really nice Spring weather.



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ClicheVortex2014
post May 4 2018, 10:34 PM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ May 4 2018, 11:29 PM) *
Pretty much what I expected, nothing for areas east of CPA, stable cooler air just squashed everything. The energy up through central and Northern NY and NNE was about all that could be expected from this front. Just happy to get on the other side of that front for some really nice Spring weather.


At least you weren’t in the Rorchester/Buffalo area that was in a moderate risk but didn’t see any severe weather. I hate when that happens.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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PlanetMaster
post May 5 2018, 06:01 AM
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There were more wind damage reports last night in the NE than all of Wednesdays severe weather in the Mid west. This doesn't include the tremendous damage and deaths that occurred North of the Border in Canada where the front was very destructive and widespread severe weather occurred.

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QUOTE
TORONTO - Powerful winds wreaked havoc in southern and central Ontario on Friday, leaving thousands of people without power, causing flight disruptions and claiming the life of at least two people.

Wind gusts of close to 120 km/h were observed in the wake of a cold front that moved across the province, Environment Canada said.

The weather agency lifted its wind warnings for the most of the region Friday evening except for parts of southeastern Ontario.

Police west of Toronto said a tree fell on two men in Milton, killing one and injuring the other. "They were working on tree servicing, and as they were doing that, the wind picked up and a tree fell on the two individuals," Staff Sgt. Jeff Foster with Halton regional police said.

He said a 28-year-old man was pronounced dead at the scene and a 18-year-old man was rushed to a Hamilton hospital with life-threatening injuries.

Foster said the Ministry of Labour is investigating.

Hamilton police said that just before 7 p.m., a man in his 50s was found unconscious on a road and "in contact with live wires."

Witnesses said the man had been trying to clear downed power lines from the roadway.

Police said the man was pronounced dead shortly after emergency services arrived on scene.

Meanwhile, Pearson International Airport suspended operations for about two hours due to the extreme winds. The airport lifted its "ground stop" by about 8 p.m., but warned travellers of continued delays.

Hydro One said more than 180,000 customers were without power, adding that all available crews were responding to outages.

"Our priority right now is to respond to emergencies and start repairing main lines so that we can get the largest numbers of customers restored as quickly and safely as possible," CEO Greg Kiraly said in an online statement.

In Milton, the winds downed 12 hydro poles, leaving some 10,000 customers without power. Toronto Hydro said about 68,000 of its customers have been affected.

Police forces across the region said they are responding to many calls of downed wires, poles and trees, resulting in multiple road closures.

Peel regional police said a tree came frighteningly close to striking a school bus in Mississauga. Police said 72 children between the ages of seven and 10 were on the bus at the time, but there were no reports of injuries.

Canadian Press




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FireworkWX03
post May 5 2018, 06:29 AM
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This is the type of event that makes me wonder if there should be some kind of dedicated warning outside of, or perhaps replacing the Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Or if the Severe Thunderstorm Warning should be more rare. Tornado Warnings get the attention but Severe T'storm Warnings tend not to (I fell for it myself in writing this one off).

The squall was covered by SVR warnings but a great deal of the damage came outside of those temporal warnings, particularly at YYZ. Environment Canada, I know, but they also go with a Severe T'storm/Wind Warning type setup.

Perhaps in this event it wouldn't have mattered, but I almost think we'd be better served by a Tornado Warning/Derecho Warning/redefined Gale Warning (or Windstorm Warning) sort of system. Maybe just fewer categories of warnings overall and fewer issuances so that they mean more to the public.
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PlanetMaster
post May 5 2018, 08:49 AM
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QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ May 5 2018, 07:29 AM) *
This is the type of event that makes me wonder if there should be some kind of dedicated warning outside of, or perhaps replacing the Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Or if the Severe Thunderstorm Warning should be more rare. Tornado Warnings get the attention but Severe T'storm Warnings tend not to (I fell for it myself in writing this one off).

The squall was covered by SVR warnings but a great deal of the damage came outside of those temporal warnings, particularly at YYZ. Environment Canada, I know, but they also go with a Severe T'storm/Wind Warning type setup.

Perhaps in this event it wouldn't have mattered, but I almost think we'd be better served by a Tornado Warning/Derecho Warning/redefined Gale Warning (or Windstorm Warning) sort of system. Maybe just fewer categories of warnings overall and fewer issuances so that they mean more to the public.

Let me ask in the advisories and warnings that were posted was there any mention of those extreme winds? Cause those numbers really stand out I mean Hurricane force winds would be a red flag if they were predicted and I cant imagine that type of intensity was foreseen. Like CV said places in Western NY were placed in moderate risk warnings to receive damaging storms and nothing happened so its not always a given that things will develop as forecasted. I cant fathom that tree workers would be out there if they were aware of such extreme conditions approaching. One thing you can say about predicting weather is its unpredictable.


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