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> Feb 15-16 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations (Former Forecast Thread)
longislander
post Feb 14 2018, 11:37 PM
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Raining here on LI now, I didn't hear this in the forecast.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 15 2018, 04:43 PM
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Couple flakes showing up on the backside of all this. Mentioned a little "surprise" might be possible for iso regions. Just might pull it off.
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Solstice
post Feb 15 2018, 09:47 PM
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Seeing as precipitation has begun I will now repurpose this as an OBS thread.
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This post has been edited by Solstice: Feb 15 2018, 09:58 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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STEVE392
post Feb 15 2018, 10:39 PM
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thick fog and mist here in mahwah, nj.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 16 2018, 03:57 AM
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We've got quite the mud maker going on here in CTP land. My sump pump has run twice already this morning (that I've heard anyway, maybe it ran more)

6 Hr total on the CXY (airport to my west and a bit south) show 0.7" QPF thus far. That is a good bit in a short order.

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NorEaster07
post Feb 16 2018, 06:18 AM
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2-6am loop... Over 4" of rain this month and only mid way done. Another 1/2"+ liquid tomorrow (in form of snow)... What a wet pattern.



Edit: Saw some flooding reports from SouthWest PA yesterday evening. Looks like continued overnight.

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Feb 16 2018, 06:19 AM
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 16 2018, 10:47 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 16 2018, 06:18 AM) *
2-6am loop... Over 4" of rain this month and only mid way done. Another 1/2"+ liquid tomorrow (in form of snow)... What a wet pattern.

Edit: Saw some flooding reports from SouthWest PA yesterday evening. Looks like continued overnight.

The cold front passage around 9:30 pushed me above 1.5" for my 48-hour storm total (mostly last night) and with light to moderate rain continuing for another couple hours I could end up around 1.75" for the storm total.

Observations out of Pittsburgh indicate they've received nearly 2.5" in the past 2 days (mostly last night) so the flooding situation was definitely worse a short drive to my north across SW PA


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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Solstice
post Feb 16 2018, 11:43 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 16 2018, 06:18 AM) *
2-6am loop... Over 4" of rain this month and only mid way done. Another 1/2"+ liquid tomorrow (in form of snow)... What a wet pattern.



Edit: Saw some flooding reports from SouthWest PA yesterday evening. Looks like continued overnight.


What's with the snow report in PA? blink.gif.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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PlanetMaster
post Feb 16 2018, 12:28 PM
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Attached Image
Dew Point 52 F
Humidity 78%
Rainfall 0.26 in

Feels balmy out there with the high humidity and dew, beautiful w/peaks of sun but rain on its way back for this afternoon.


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phillyfan
post Feb 16 2018, 01:13 PM
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After a dry morning the rain moved back in around 12pm. Got 0.49" last night, less than forecasted again but who's complaining as were off to quite the wet start to this year. 1.28"+ above average already for the year.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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Cranberry_Townsh...
post Feb 16 2018, 02:41 PM
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To shy away from the winter side... NWS has confirmed an EF1 Tornado ripped through Uniontown, PA, just outside Pittsburgh, last night. First February tornado here since 1950.
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PlanetMaster
post Feb 16 2018, 04:00 PM
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QUOTE(Cranberry_Township @ Feb 16 2018, 02:41 PM) *
To shy away from the winter side... NWS has confirmed an EF1 Tornado ripped through Uniontown, PA, just outside Pittsburgh, last night. First February tornado here since 1950.

I was reading that, some video and images
https://weather.com/news/news/2018-02-16-un...ia-storm-damage

Rain back here and temp down 9 degrees in past hour, cold front on the doorstep.


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