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> Long Range Summer 2018 Outlooks and Discussions, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends, excitement, and mor
Ahoff
post Jun 15 2018, 06:22 AM
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QUOTE(bradjl2009 @ Jun 14 2018, 10:58 PM) *
I wouldn't call near 90 beautiful but that's just me.


Fair enough, I like the heat in summer, but as long as it's not raining, I'm happy. It could be 112, as long as it doesn't rain, haha.
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PGM
post Jun 15 2018, 09:37 AM
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Upper 90s to near 100 this weekend w/o heat index. Any signs of a record hot summer in the works? Pretty early for this kind of heat this far north.
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FireworkWX03
post Jun 15 2018, 03:53 PM
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Bud and an early monsoon season giving us basically the opposite of the expected temp pattern for the rest of June. It's even more pronounced on today's 6-10/8-14.
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NorEaster07
post Jun 16 2018, 07:27 AM
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Monday will be hottest day and probably until July?

Tomorrow max temp forecast.



Monday max temp forecast

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NorEaster07
post Jun 16 2018, 07:32 AM
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June departures so far for NorthEast. Nothing extreme at all but nice to finally have a below normal period in a summer month.

Coldest 1st half of June in NYC since 2012. (Funny to hear since 2012 was a hot yr). Coldest since 2009 in Caribou, Maine

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MotownWX
post Yesterday, 07:02 AM
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QUOTE(Ahoff @ Jun 14 2018, 06:43 PM) *
Really? Because it's going to be a beautiful weekend here in Pittsburgh. What are you guys getting.


When I posted, they were forecasting all-day showers and thunderstorms for Saturday. But as it turned out I only had a couple hours of it in the morning. Northern Michigan wound up getting the brunt of it.
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alczervik
post Today, 05:53 AM
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The last two days have been absolutely beautiful. Hot and humid temps in mid 90's.

I was reading a story that Igloo Lake in Newfoundland, have six feet of snow pack.
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RobB
post Today, 08:50 AM
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June so far IMBY. Last three days were in the 90s.

CODE
MONTHLY CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY for JUN. 2018

NAME: South Dayton Bruiser Home   CITY: South Dayton   STATE: Ohio
ELEV:   728 ft  LAT:  39 41' 30" N  LONG:  84 12' 20" W

                   TEMPERATURE (F), RAIN  (in), WIND SPEED (mph)

                                      HEAT  COOL        AVG
    MEAN                              DEG   DEG         WIND                 DOM
DAY TEMP  HIGH   TIME   LOW    TIME   DAYS  DAYS  RAIN  SPEED HIGH   TIME    DIR
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1  72.3  81.4   2:49p  68.1   4:37a   0.0   7.2  0.14   0.8  13.0   4:10p    SW
2  74.7  84.5   5:45p  65.0   5:57a   0.0   9.5  0.00   1.0   8.0   7:58a     N
3  74.5  81.6   4:06p  67.1  11:57p   0.0   9.3  0.00   2.4  20.0   4:42p   WNW
4  67.9  76.5   6:05p  57.0   6:21a   1.3   4.1  0.00   2.5  18.0   3:02p   WNW
5  64.9  79.6   2:30p  53.7   4:20a   3.1   3.0  0.13   0.9  16.0   2:08p   WSW
6  64.2  75.1   5:35p  53.0   6:45a   3.1   2.3  0.00   1.2  13.0   1:09p     N
7  70.9  85.7   6:05p  56.0   5:50a   2.5   8.2  0.08   1.3  13.0   1:25p    SW
8  73.8  85.7   4:30p  67.1   6:32a   0.0   8.3  0.72   1.2  16.0   7:15p   WSW
9  73.6  87.4   3:29p  65.4   6:37a   0.0   6.7  0.05   0.8  28.0   5:19p   SSE
10  71.3  78.8  11:35a  65.0   5:18a   0.0   6.2  0.02   1.3  14.0   1:38p   WNW
11  70.6  77.2   6:41p  68.2   6:03a   0.0   5.5  0.15   0.3   8.0  10:59p   ESE
12  72.3  81.6   4:50p  67.6   1:20a   0.0   7.2  0.18   1.3  13.0   2:08p    SW
13  75.0  84.7   3:22p  69.4  12:00m   0.0   9.8  0.00   1.9  17.0   2:53p    SW
14  70.7  83.4   6:08p  54.2   6:24a   2.2   7.8  0.00   0.7   8.0   3:38p     N
15  74.6  87.2   4:02p  60.0   6:12a   0.9  10.3  0.00   0.8   8.0  12:42p   SSE
16  76.1  91.0   3:08p  65.1   5:52a   0.0  10.9  0.02   0.8  18.0   4:10p   WSW
17  82.0  94.3   4:45p  69.6   5:52a   0.0  16.7  0.00   1.2  11.0   1:57p   WSW
18  83.6  93.8   4:20p  71.9   6:19a   0.0  18.2  0.00   2.2  19.0   5:28p   WSW
19  78.3  82.0   9:47a  75.6   6:42a   0.0   5.3  0.00   0.6  11.0   9:34a    SW
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    73.2  94.3    17    53.0     6    13.1 156.5  1.49   1.2  28.0     9     WSW

Max >=  90.0:  3
Max <=  32.0:  0
Min <=  32.0:  0
Min <=   0.0:  0
Max Rain: 0.72 ON 06/08/18
Days of Rain: 9 (>.01 in) 5 (>.1 in) 0 (>1 in)
Heat Base:  65.0  Cool Base:  65.0  Method: Integration
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idecline
post Today, 06:32 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 5 2018, 01:01 PM) *



QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jun 6 2018, 03:32 PM) *
2012 was extraordinary in that winter didn't occur. Winter definitely occurred this year, but not during February.

Looking at the 500 mb GFS ensemble mean all the ridges/troughs appear to be transient so I'm not convinced that a particular pattern will get locked into place this month.

In regards to M. Ventrice's tweet, I don't believe it for a second. IMHO there's way to much convective potential in that region for prolonged above normal temperatures of that magnitude.


QUOTE(idecline @ Jun 6 2018, 05:52 PM) *
...in regards to Ventrice's tweet...seems probable as much as any other outcome...and unfortunately climatology shows a similar 'outbreak' of heat in June 2012...convection cannot help under hot descending air from a large 'Ring of Fire' type of high pressure...sure the peripheral area surrounding this high may be ripe for extreme outbreaks of severe weather...after living in California all these years we often live under 'domes' of high pressure for months at a time...i.e. SF Bay Area averages less than .25 inch of rainfall for June... dry.gif



QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jun 7 2018, 08:15 AM) *
As somebody who lived near the epicenter of the 2012 drought I can confidently assure you that surface temperature anomalies will not approach those of 2012. Thus, that model forecast can be safely ignored, because it's not as probable as any other outcome and the extreme climate anomaly of June 2012 does not, in any way, represent climatology of the central plains.

Sure, a potent ridge aloft and at the surface would lead to synoptic scale subsidence that prevents convection, but this is a moot point when no short term model guidance advertises that possibility. If anything there's anomalous low pressure on the plains, suggesting exactly what my previous post mentioned ... lots of convective potential. If it rains often, surface temperature anomalies will be held in check ... the extreme heat in June 2012 would not have been possible if it rained regularly.

unsure.gif ...idee unsure of himself...only a 'hobbyist'...some college...math, engineering, extensive physics classes...Hobbies include:...meteorology...oceanography...'El-Nino(ENSO)...earthquakes...etc...

just sayin'...looks pretty hot so far... dry.gif
Attached File  14dTDeptUS.png ( 106.21K ) Number of downloads: 0


idee definitely is no 'expert'...nor would he want to be..."An expert knows few ways and must follow them, a novice is open to everything"-...?

This post has been edited by idecline: Today, 06:53 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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