Oct. 7-10th Plains/MW/GL/OV Flooding, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] Observations Options

[CentralIllinois]

Excessive Amounts of rain for the Midwest / Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Possible.

I believe this is right let me know of any changes that need to be made

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[Removed_Member_OHweather2_*]

Is there a rule that says the "storm forecast/obs threads" can't cover the flooding aspects of it? Do we really need to split up things this much? Other than this beef I have (not with you CentralIllinois, just with this phisophy of splitting up every different kind of sensible weather into different threads for the same storm) the thread title/dates look fine, may need to extend them a day earlier though. We'll see.

[Chicago Storm]

Is there a rule that says the "storm forecast/obs threads" can't cover the flooding aspects of it? Do we really need to split up things this much? Other than this beef I have (not with you CentralIllinois, just with this phisophy of splitting up every different kind of sensible weather into different threads for the same storm) the thread title/dates look fine, may need to extend them a day earlier though. We'll see.

I can agree with that. Severe wx would be the only reason that I can see a seperate thread being needed. I'm sure Jesse wouldn't change it though, since the flooding can continue to occur even after the storm has passed.

[CentralIllinois]

New 00Z GFS shows Missouri,Illinois and Indiana getting slammed with very heavy rainfall

[CentralIllinois]

00Z GFS Yikes!!!!

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[Removed_Member_max140_*]

00Z GFS Yikes!!!!

too much rain

[weather_boy2010]

too much rain

That would cause some flash flooding problems for sure. I'm interested to see how this turns out, this area has suffered a lot of flooding over the past year and a half, and 4-6 inches of rain over a two day period would wreak havoc on this area, again. Last year, we had five inches of rain in a two day period and this is what happened...



That is the Little Calumet River, crested at a record level. That flood wall had just gotten finished up about two weeks earlier, thankfully because my house is off the picture on the left side and would have been under 2-3 feet of water otherwise.

Anyway, yeah, it's not gonna be good if we get that amount of rain in such a short time.

This post has been edited by weather_boy2010: Oct 6 2009, 07:58 AM

[MichelleOH]

I'm confused...we are expecting some rain/storms today, but it doesn't look THIS heavy. Also a bit more on Friday. When is this flooding rain supposed to occur?

[MAC292OH10]

12Z NAM (84hr precip total)

[weather_boy2010]

I'm confused...we are expecting some rain/storms today, but it doesn't look THIS heavy. Also a bit more on Friday. When is this flooding rain supposed to occur?

The flooding isn't forecast to occur with today's storms, it will be the Thursday-Friday stuff that gives us some headaches, possibly.

[weather_boy2010]

This is the HPC's probability of seeing above average rainfall.



This post has been edited by weather_boy2010: Oct 6 2009, 11:26 AM

[ohiobuckeye45]

ILN

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED...HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE ECMWF AND HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. USING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION BRINGS PCPN INTO THE AREA FASTER AND FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS. ALSO...WITH HIGH PWATS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00
INCHES...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

[CentralIllinois]

GFS 12Z. Top

its basically NAM VS GFS

NAM 12Z. Bottom

The GFS looks more realistic for totals than the NAM

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[weather_boy2010]

CentralIL, which location are you leaning more towards? The NAM's location or the GFS's location?

[CentralIllinois]

CentralIL, which location are you leaning more towards? The NAM's location or the GFS's location?

Even though i dont really want all the Heavy Rain the GFS has been more realistic and consistent with the placement of the heavy rain so im going with the GFS

[weather_boy2010]

Even though i dont really want all the Heavy Rain the GFS has been more realistic and consistent with the placement of the heavy rain so im going with the GFS

Sometimes I have issues trusting the GFS, but it has been very consistent with location and amounts. The Chicago forecast office isn't going one way or the other yet.

RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COME BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A DEEPENING BROAD CLOSED
UPPER LOW TAKES FORM OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND SERVES AS THE FOCUS
FOR OUR COLD TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SFC...A LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND BRING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FURTHER SOUTH...WAA WILL BE BRINGING
PRECIPITATION NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SEPARATE UPPER TROF
CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAIN
DETAILS WITH HOW THIS SCENARIO WILL PAN OUT AS THE NAM IS HITTING
THE PRECIP HARDER TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE
IN BETWEEN. WILL HAVE TO FINE TUNE THIS FORECAST AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES AND THE MODELS HOPEFULLY TREND ONE WAY OR THE OTHER.

Source

[Removed_Member_max140_*]

12z gfs gives me 4 inches ! If october is like the winter then were going to have a very wet winter

[weather_boy2010]

12z gfs gives me 4 inches ! If october is like the winter then were going to have a very wet winter

It's possible. Henry's forecast had a large area of the eastern United States getting anywhere from 110% to 200% of the normal precipitation. We'll see!

This is gonna be an interesting storm for sure, I am anxiously awaiting the model runs from here on out.

[Removed_Member_max140_*]

It's possible. Henry's forecast had a large area of the eastern United States getting anywhere from 110% to 200% of the normal precipitation. We'll see!

This is gonna be an interesting storm for sure, I am anxiously awaiting the model runs from here on out.

where is the forecast?

[weather_boy2010]

where is the forecast?

You will likely be extremely happy with his forecast. I do think it is a fairly accurate one too.

Here it is.