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RobB
Posted on: May 18 2017, 08:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


QUOTE(Juniorrr @ May 18 2017, 09:04 AM) *
+1. Ruined my beauty sleep though mad.gif


smile.gif That stinks. At its heaviest, the rain rate was 6.26 inches an hour. Glad I mowed yesterday as we got a quick .72 inches IMBY.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228493 · Replies: · Views: 16,002

RobB
Posted on: May 18 2017, 07:59 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


Quite the heavy rain and lots of lightning through the Dayton area. Very nice!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2228491 · Replies: · Views: 16,002

RobB
Posted on: May 8 2017, 06:31 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


Temperature got down to 29.9 degrees IMBY this morning. Beautiful yet frosty morning.


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227700 · Replies: · Views: 2,083

RobB
Posted on: May 7 2017, 07:43 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


Got fairly chilly this morning IMBY. Hit a low of 35.8 degrees. I could do without all the rain but I find the cooler air nice smile.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227638 · Replies: · Views: 2,083

RobB
Posted on: May 3 2017, 07:39 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


Stats for the month of April IMBY:

CODE
MONTHLY CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY for APR. 2017

NAME: South Dayton Bruiser Home   CITY: South Dayton   STATE: Ohio
ELEV:   728 ft  LAT:  39 41' 30" N  LONG:  84 12' 20" W

                   TEMPERATURE (F), RAIN  (in), WIND SPEED (mph)

                                      HEAT  COOL        AVG
    MEAN                              DEG   DEG         WIND                 DOM
DAY TEMP  HIGH   TIME   LOW    TIME   DAYS  DAYS  RAIN  SPEED HIGH   TIME    DIR
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1  42.7  48.7   6:23p  37.6  11:55p  21.9   0.0  0.01   2.0  13.0  12:10a     N
2  47.9  62.5   4:55p  32.7   5:17a  16.9   0.0  0.00   1.4  13.0  12:32p     E
3  59.8  67.1   3:32p  51.5  12:03a   5.3   0.3  0.14   3.4  20.0   1:08p   SSE
4  57.0  61.4   5:57p  49.0  11:58p   7.9   0.0  0.00   4.5  26.0   6:50a   WNW
5  54.2  75.1   5:18p  43.0   3:56a  11.4   1.1  0.56   3.3  25.0   6:32p     N
6  44.1  53.0   4:12a  37.0   8:54p  20.5   0.0  0.36   5.3  32.0   4:52p   WNW
7  43.4  54.0   5:45p  35.4   6:40a  21.1   0.0  0.01   5.1  22.0   4:03p   WNW
8  46.7  62.4   5:08p  28.9   6:54a  18.0   0.0  0.00   0.8  11.0   6:36p    SW
9  59.3  75.9   4:34p  44.3   5:23a   6.4   1.7  0.00   2.9  19.0   1:27p    SW
10  69.0  78.4   3:23p  59.1  10:53p   0.7   4.6  0.00   3.9  24.0   6:10p    SW
11  63.4  69.1  12:24a  54.2  11:57p   2.7   1.1  0.21   2.5  13.0   6:59a    SW
12  55.2  67.4   5:11p  40.3   7:31a   9.8   0.2  0.00   1.5  12.0   1:59p     N
13  59.2  71.6   4:01p  45.0   5:25a   6.9   1.3  0.00   1.6  13.0   1:24p   ESE
14  65.6  79.6   4:46p  49.0   7:02a   4.3   4.9  0.00   1.2  15.0  12:15a    SE
15  71.9  82.4   4:48p  58.2   6:41a   0.6   7.4  0.00   3.3  24.0   4:06p    SW
16  70.8  79.4   4:57p  62.9  11:59p   0.1   5.9  0.01   4.8  25.0   8:58a    SW
17  62.6  70.1   4:20p  52.1  12:00m   3.4   1.0  0.00   1.8  13.0   5:45a     N
18  62.6  77.4   6:03p  43.4   7:11a   6.6   4.2  0.00   2.9  19.0   1:09p     S
19  70.5  79.9   5:41p  64.1   5:33a   0.1   5.5  0.00   2.7  18.0  12:03p    SW
20  69.3  81.8   3:13p  60.3   5:53a   0.9   5.1  0.53   3.0  26.0   1:30p    SW
21  56.2  63.0  12:01a  50.3   7:17a   8.6   0.0  0.08   3.0  14.0  10:48a     N
22  49.5  55.8   3:50p  44.9   5:46a  15.3   0.0  0.04   2.8  18.0   5:21p     N
23  54.3  67.9   4:42p  39.3   5:17a  11.0   0.4  0.00   1.6  16.0  12:47p     N
24  60.2  74.9   3:27p  45.0   6:53a   6.7   2.0  0.00   2.5  17.0   4:53p     E
25  63.9  77.7   5:16p  49.6   6:54a   4.6   3.5  0.00   1.4  11.0  12:10p   SSE
26  70.8  83.2   4:18p  56.8   5:49a   1.4   7.1  0.00   3.1  20.0   3:26p     S
27  65.0  72.3   1:55a  50.8  12:00m   2.0   2.0  0.10   4.2  26.0  10:09a   WSW
28  55.9  68.7   5:08p  44.7   4:53a   9.4   0.5  0.37   1.2  22.0   7:43p     E
29  66.0  78.3   5:37p  58.2  12:12a   2.2   3.2  0.95   1.7  14.0  12:57a   SSE
30  70.3  81.8   5:18p  54.9   3:22a   2.4   7.6  0.32   4.1  27.0   4:00p     S
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    59.6  83.2    26    28.9     8   229.1  70.6  3.69   2.8  32.0     6       N

Max >=  90.0:  0
Max <=  32.0:  0
Min <=  32.0:  1
Min <=   0.0:  0
Max Rain: 0.95 ON 04/29/17
Days of Rain: 11 (>.01 in) 8 (>.1 in) 0 (>1 in)
Heat Base:  65.0  Cool Base:  65.0  Method: Integration
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2227406 · Replies: · Views: 69,366

RobB
Posted on: Apr 19 2017, 08:23 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


Good 'hump' day to you, grace...
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2226300 · Replies: · Views: 6,072

RobB
Posted on: Apr 19 2017, 08:23 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


QUOTE(grace @ Apr 19 2017, 09:21 AM) *
CFS has a 86-87, 94-95, 2003-04, 2004-05, 2009-10 type El Nino look by OND. Strength differences of course but I'm referring to warmest anomalies.

The above winters were all drastically different. So good luck making a winter forecast using ENSO as the main driver if CRA verifies.



You could have stopped there smile.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2226299 · Replies: · Views: 6,072

RobB
Posted on: Apr 17 2017, 09:28 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


April stats so far IMBY:

CODE
MONTHLY CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY for APR. 2017

NAME: South Dayton Bruiser Home   CITY: South Dayton   STATE: Ohio
ELEV:   728 ft  LAT:  39 41' 30" N  LONG:  84 12' 20" W

                   TEMPERATURE (F), RAIN  (in), WIND SPEED (mph)

                                      HEAT  COOL        AVG
    MEAN                              DEG   DEG         WIND                 DOM
DAY TEMP  HIGH   TIME   LOW    TIME   DAYS  DAYS  RAIN  SPEED HIGH   TIME    DIR
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1  42.7  48.7   6:23p  37.6  11:55p  21.9   0.0  0.01   2.0  13.0  12:10a     N
2  47.9  62.5   4:55p  32.7   5:17a  16.9   0.0  0.00   1.4  13.0  12:32p     E
3  59.8  67.1   3:32p  51.5  12:03a   5.3   0.3  0.14   3.4  20.0   1:08p   SSE
4  57.0  61.4   5:57p  49.0  11:58p   7.9   0.0  0.00   4.5  26.0   6:50a   WNW
5  54.2  75.1   5:18p  43.0   3:56a  11.4   1.1  0.56   3.3  25.0   6:32p     N
6  44.1  53.0   4:12a  37.0   8:54p  20.5   0.0  0.36   5.3  32.0   4:52p   WNW
7  43.4  54.0   5:45p  35.4   6:40a  21.1   0.0  0.01   5.1  22.0   4:03p   WNW
8  46.7  62.4   5:08p  28.9   6:54a  18.0   0.0  0.00   0.8  11.0   6:36p    SW
9  59.3  75.9   4:34p  44.3   5:23a   6.4   1.7  0.00   2.9  19.0   1:27p    SW
10  69.0  78.4   3:23p  59.1  10:53p   0.7   4.6  0.00   3.9  24.0   6:10p    SW
11  63.4  69.1  12:24a  54.2  11:57p   2.7   1.1  0.21   2.5  13.0   6:59a    SW
12  55.2  67.4   5:11p  40.3   7:31a   9.8   0.2  0.00   1.5  12.0   1:59p     N
13  59.2  71.6   4:01p  45.0   5:25a   6.9   1.3  0.00   1.6  13.0   1:24p   ESE
14  65.6  79.6   4:46p  49.0   7:02a   4.3   4.9  0.00   1.2  15.0  12:15a    SE
15  71.9  82.4   4:48p  58.2   6:41a   0.6   7.4  0.00   3.3  24.0   4:06p    SW
16  70.8  79.4   4:57p  62.9  11:59p   0.1   5.9  0.01   4.8  25.0   8:58a    SW
17  60.1  65.4  10:20a  56.3   7:07a   2.1   0.0  0.00   1.7  13.0   5:45a     N
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    57.1  82.4    15    28.9     8   156.6  28.5  1.30   2.9  32.0     6      SW

Max >=  90.0:  0
Max <=  32.0:  0
Min <=  32.0:  1
Min <=   0.0:  0
Max Rain: 0.56 ON 04/05/17
Days of Rain: 4 (>.01 in) 4 (>.1 in) 0 (>1 in)
Heat Base:  65.0  Cool Base:  65.0  Method: Integration

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2226208 · Replies: · Views: 69,366

RobB
Posted on: Apr 9 2017, 12:05 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


Beautiful spring day out IMBY...

1:00 look..


  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2225801 · Replies: · Views: 69,366

RobB
Posted on: Apr 7 2017, 08:11 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


Forgot to post this earlier.

March stats IMBY:

CODE
MONTHLY CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY for MAR. 2017

NAME: South Dayton Bruiser Home   CITY: South Dayton   STATE: Ohio
ELEV:   728 ft  LAT:  39 41' 30" N  LONG:  84 12' 20" W

                   TEMPERATURE (F), RAIN  (in), WIND SPEED (mph)

                                      HEAT  COOL        AVG
    MEAN                              DEG   DEG         WIND                 DOM
DAY TEMP  HIGH   TIME   LOW    TIME   DAYS  DAYS  RAIN  SPEED HIGH   TIME    DIR
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1  52.2  61.8   1:15a  37.4  11:52p  12.5   0.0  1.22   6.4  33.0  10:19p   WNW
2  36.3  41.4   3:55p  30.5  11:56p  28.3   0.0  0.00   4.5  22.0  12:07a   WNW
3  30.0  35.7   2:15p  24.5  11:32p  34.9   0.0  0.00   2.8  19.0  12:15p   WNW
4  29.5  36.7   4:11p  23.7   1:27a  34.3   0.0  0.01   1.5  12.0   3:16p     E
5  46.0  63.5   4:10p  29.5   7:17a  18.7   0.0  0.00   1.9  14.0   2:54p     S
6  54.3  58.2  11:50p  50.5  10:02a  10.4   0.0  0.34   4.0  21.0  12:37a     S
7  53.3  59.9   4:41a  40.3  11:59p  11.5   0.0  0.49   3.8  21.0   6:45a     S
8  48.7  59.0   3:14p  40.1  12:08a  15.9   0.0  0.00   4.2  32.0  12:22p   WSW
9  47.7  66.6   3:24p  31.1   7:10a  17.0   0.0  0.15   1.9  17.0   7:36p     N
10  34.2  39.9   3:08p  23.3  11:54p  30.4   0.0  0.05   5.4  24.0   1:23p     N
11  27.2  35.6   2:58p  20.0   6:46a  36.7   0.0  0.00   2.4  16.0  12:45a     N
12  28.2  36.1   4:26p  20.3   7:53a  35.1   0.0  0.00   1.8  12.0   1:39a     N
13  30.5  38.1   2:11p  26.4   8:05a  34.0   0.0  0.00   1.6  13.0  10:30p     N
14  23.7  28.6   1:05p  19.7  11:47p  40.3   0.0  0.02   6.0  25.0   1:37p     N
15  23.8  30.7   4:44p  16.3   5:59a  40.5   0.0  0.00   3.8  22.0   1:59p   WNW
16  29.2  41.7   4:41p  17.0   7:25a  35.1   0.0  0.00   1.2  17.0   1:52p   WNW
17  32.8  39.0  11:56p  21.6   2:27a  31.3   0.0  0.06   1.0  11.0   2:41p   SSE
18  40.1  43.4   5:17a  37.7  11:56a  24.5   0.0  0.01   2.3  18.0  11:10a   WNW
19  40.0  47.5   4:44p  33.9  11:09p  24.5   0.0  0.00   1.0  10.0  12:34a   NNW
20  43.3  54.3   2:31p  32.3   2:07a  21.2   0.0  1.03   1.3  16.0   5:49p   SSE
21  49.2  57.8   3:55p  39.4  11:57p  15.6   0.0  0.02   2.4  19.0   6:22p     N
22  33.6  41.3   4:47p  25.1   7:55a  31.0   0.0  0.00   3.7  22.0   1:31a     N
23  40.2  56.3   6:23p  25.5   5:59a  24.3   0.0  0.00   2.0  15.0  12:05p   SSE
24  62.7  74.5   3:48p  52.1   2:12a   4.9   2.6  0.00   3.4  22.0   6:21p    SW
25  66.9  74.9   4:08p  59.7   7:18a   1.0   2.9  0.00   3.0  18.0  11:05a     S
26  60.1  66.7   4:31p  55.4  11:54p   4.8   0.0  0.33   1.6  14.0  11:09a    SW
27  58.0  66.9   3:51p  47.4   5:14a   6.7   0.0  0.23   1.0   8.0  11:47a    SW
28  55.1  58.2  12:01a  50.0  11:52p   9.5   0.0  0.08   2.5  17.0   8:54a     N
29  51.1  61.6   5:03p  39.0   8:09a  13.5   0.0  0.00   2.6  16.0  12:28p     E
30  62.1  78.4   3:19p  49.9   7:21a   6.4   3.6  0.14   2.7  25.0   3:28p     S
31  52.7  57.8  12:01a  43.1  11:54p  12.1   0.0  0.51   3.2  20.0   3:46p   WNW
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    43.3  78.4    30    16.3    15   666.9   9.1  4.69   2.8  33.0     1       N

Max >=  90.0:  0
Max <=  32.0:  2
Min <=  32.0: 15
Min <=   0.0:  0
Max Rain: 1.22 ON 03/01/17
Days of Rain: 14 (>.01 in) 9 (>.1 in) 2 (>1 in)
Heat Base:  65.0  Cool Base:  65.0  Method: Integration

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2225717 · Replies: · Views: 69,366

RobB
Posted on: Apr 6 2017, 08:01 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


Love how precip rates effect temps. Now that things have lightened up, the temp is back to 37.7 degrees with very light rain. No flakes mixed in.....
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225638 · Replies: · Views: 10,504

RobB
Posted on: Apr 6 2017, 07:55 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


Corrected...Trees...Not tries smile.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225636 · Replies: · Views: 10,504

RobB
Posted on: Apr 6 2017, 07:52 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


Good luck to those in the snow zone. There are actually a few snow flakes mixed in with the rain IMBY. 37.3 degrees at the moment...Mowed the lawn two times so far this season. Ohio trees must be smart as they have yet to bud...At least IMBY. Very few have which surprises me...
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225634 · Replies: · Views: 10,504

RobB
Posted on: Apr 5 2017, 04:25 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


Certainly turned nice out after just missing the thunderstorm..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225410 · Replies: · Views: 11,169

RobB
Posted on: Apr 5 2017, 03:55 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


QUOTE(MichelleOH @ Apr 5 2017, 04:49 PM) *
I agree with you guys. Why is this NOT a tornado watch?



Looking at the percentage chances for small number of tornadoes, I can see their point. They likely have a threshold before issuing Tornado Watches. The Dew Points are kind of meh also. Looks like some good soakers with lots of lightning on tap. I just missed that cell to my west/northwest...
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225397 · Replies: · Views: 11,169

RobB
Posted on: Apr 5 2017, 03:14 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


QUOTE
657
WWUS20 KWNS 052005
SEL8
SPC WW 052005
ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-060100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
410 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Illinois
Southern and Central Indiana
Northern Kentucky
Southwest Ohio

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 410 PM
until 900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to form across the watch area
through the afternoon, with the risk of large hail and damaging
winds in the more intense storms. An isolated tornado or two is
also possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of
Terre Haute IN to 65 miles east southeast of Dayton OH. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 125...WW 126...WW 127...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24035.

...Hart


==================================================
===================

084
WWUS40 KWNS 052005
WWP8

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT WED APR 05 2017

WS 0128
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 10%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 80%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 450
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU8.

$$
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225388 · Replies: · Views: 11,169

RobB
Posted on: Apr 5 2017, 02:16 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Apr 5 2017, 03:11 PM) *
It surprises me that they are debating the watch type here when they state that tornadoes are possible. Just make it a tornado watch to be on the safe side.



I concur......
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225378 · Replies: · Views: 11,169

RobB
Posted on: Apr 5 2017, 02:09 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 5 2017, 03:04 PM) *
Ah, that's the problem. Thanks!



You are welcome!

It would be nice if the site would feedback the issue of file size smile.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225374 · Replies: · Views: 9,506

RobB
Posted on: Apr 5 2017, 02:04 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


QUOTE
385
ACUS11 KWNS 051900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051859
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-052130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central/southern/western
Ohio...northern Kentucky...central and southern Indiana...far
southeast Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 051859Z - 052130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms with large hail,
damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes will spread northeastward and
east-northeastward across the region -- especially after 1930Z and
into the evening. Watch issuance will be likely for portions of the
Discussion area, though there is uncertainty regarding Watch type
(Severe Thunderstorm versus Tornado).

DISCUSSION...Deep surface low pressure (998 mb) analyzed between St.
Louis MO and Quincy IL will continue tracking east-northeastward
into a region of 2-hour pressure falls around 1-4 mb (maximized from
north-central IN into northern OH) during the next several hours. A
wavy warm-frontal zone, branching east of the low, will continue
developing northward into the region of ongoing pressure falls.
Lower to middle 50s surface dewpoints will spread northward -- as
far north as central IN to central/northern OH -- on the warm side
of the front into the evening.

Despite the limited boundary-layer moisture, relatively steep
midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km -- sampled by the
Wilmington OH and Lincoln IL 18Z soundings -- will support MLCAPE
around 250-1000 J/kg. This should represent sufficient buoyancy for
ongoing developing cells in the warm sector closest to the surface
low in southern IL to intensify while tracking east-northeastward
and northeastward during the next several hours. The long hodograph
based on the Wilmington sounding suggests that ample convective
ventilation and deep shear will exist for sustained supercell
structures. Large hail -- possibly significantly severe -- will be
likely.

With effective SRH on the order of 200-300 m2/s2 -- highest values
expected near and just to the south of the surface low's track --
low-level mesocyclone development will be possible. Some tornado
potential will exist (aided by pre-existing vertical vorticity near
the surface low). However, the overall dearth of low-level moisture
will minimize low-level buoyancy, which could temper the strength of
low-level mesocyclones and tornado risk. Locally damaging wind gusts
may also occur, especially in association with amalgamating cold
pools.

..Cohen/Hart.. 04/05/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...I
X...

LAT...LON 37768766 38108816 39708680 40508520 40718382 40288294
39418292 38388423 37768766
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225370 · Replies: · Views: 11,169

RobB
Posted on: Apr 5 2017, 02:03 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225368 · Replies: · Views: 9,506

RobB
Posted on: Apr 5 2017, 01:56 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 5 2017, 02:55 PM) *
Ugh, GR2 is fixed... but I tried the snippet tool. I take a screenshot of it with that, save it, try to upload to this site, and it says I did not select a file to upload.



Make sure it is under 2 Meg in size....
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225363 · Replies: · Views: 9,506

RobB
Posted on: Apr 5 2017, 01:51 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


QUOTE
666
WWUS20 KWNS 051848
SEL7
SPC WW 051848
ALZ000-GAZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-060200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
150 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern and East-Central Alabama
Northwest Georgia
Southeast Indiana
Central Kentucky
Middle Tennessee

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM
until 900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail likely with isolated very large hail
events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will form along a cold front moving across
the watch area this afternoon, with some storms becoming supercells.
Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds will become a concern
through the afternoon and early evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles northeast of Louisville KY to
10 miles south southeast of Selma AL. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 125...WW 126...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.

...Hart


==================================================
===================

653
WWUS40 KWNS 051848
WWP7

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT WED APR 05 2017

WT 0127
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 50%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 90%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 10%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 90%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 50%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 450
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU7.

$$
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225361 · Replies: · Views: 11,169

RobB
Posted on: Apr 5 2017, 01:16 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225357 · Replies: · Views: 9,506

RobB
Posted on: Apr 5 2017, 01:14 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225356 · Replies: · Views: 9,506

RobB
Posted on: Apr 5 2017, 01:09 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,663
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 5 2017, 01:59 PM) *
Ugh, sucks that it's happening today of all days. Just tried uninstalling and reinstalling. Oh well, hoping it'll just fix itself.



Maybe the NWS data is causing this issue. Not sure if you are using that or not. My GRlevel3 product was lagging the update for JGX with default NWS provided data. When using my Allisonhouse data, it is much better in updating...
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225353 · Replies: · Views: 9,506

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