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> Dec 1-2 MidAtlantic/Northeast Storm, Cogitation:Long Range(8-15Days Out)Forecasts
shaulov4
post Nov 22 2016, 12:44 AM
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0Z

18Z


Perhaps its too early but BSR is favorable for this time period and Teles are pretty telling



This post has been edited by shaulov4: Nov 22 2016, 12:46 AM
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Undertakerson
post Nov 22 2016, 03:51 AM
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I'd been waiting for someone to open this thread (someone outside of PA for once - LOL)

00z Euro


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shaulov4
post Nov 22 2016, 08:39 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 22 2016, 03:51 AM) *
I'd been waiting for someone to open this thread (someone outside of PA for once - LOL)

00z Euro


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I thought someone in the interior NE would get excited and post but I guess they have too much on their plate lol laugh.gif The has plenty of time to be a colder solution, I don't see this low taking an in land track, other than the seasons slow progression from cutters to coastals which as a result would cause the next storm to be the right one wink.gif that time frame would be the 4-8 of December, but until then I will watch this one carefully
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telejunkie
post Nov 22 2016, 09:17 AM
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It certainly is an enticing period to look at…rising NAO, dropping EPO...
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--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 74”

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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kpk33x
post Nov 22 2016, 09:20 AM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Nov 22 2016, 08:39 AM) *
I thought someone in the interior NE would get excited and post but I guess they have too much on their plate lol laugh.gif The has plenty of time to be a colder solution, I don't see this low taking an in land track, other than the seasons slow progression from cutters to coastals which as a result would cause the next storm to be the right one wink.gif that time frame would be the 4-8 of December, but until then I will watch this one carefully


Greetings from the interior NE! I looked at the models briefly yesterday and laughed at the train of 4 or 5 cutters/western Apps that gave us rain up here, and moved on to the rest of my day... rolleyes.gif

EDIT - yesterday's 12z runs were a lot different than that 6z solution you've posted.

This post has been edited by kpk33x: Nov 22 2016, 09:24 AM


--------------------
Winter 2017 - Mahomet, IL

Snowfall:
October: T
November: T
December: 4.25" (Dec. 27th)

# subzero lows to date: 1
Lowest temperature: -3F
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SnowMan11
post Nov 22 2016, 10:16 AM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Nov 22 2016, 10:17 AM) *
It certainly is an enticing period to look at…rising NAO, dropping EPO...


That's an old graph. Here is the new one.

-EPO
-NAO
+PNA ( shortly )

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/refo...nn/4indices.png


--------------------
Anthony

2017-2018 Snowfall


12/9-10/17 : 3.6 "
12/14/17 : 1.2 "
12/15/17 : 1.5"
12/30/17 : 1.0"
1/4/18 : 12.2"
1/27/18 : 1.5"
2/7/18 : 0.3 "
2/17/18 : 2.5"

Total : 22.8"
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 22 2016, 10:50 AM
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Thanks for the thread shaulov

This period is deemed the snobal thread.

smile.gif


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http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/
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RobB
post Nov 22 2016, 10:59 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 22 2016, 10:50 AM) *
Thanks for the thread shaulov

This period is deemed the snobal thread.

smile.gif



Speak not his name for like "Bloody Mary", he shall appear! smile.gif
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 22 2016, 11:17 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Nov 22 2016, 10:59 AM) *
Speak not his name for like "Bloody Mary", he shall appear! smile.gif


I liked the look of this one on the bsr and thought we might be able to make a snobal from all the flurries possibly. I do hope he stops in soon to remind us its hardly winter yet smile.gif


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 22 2016, 11:21 AM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Nov 22 2016, 08:39 AM) *
I thought someone in the interior NE would get excited and post but I guess they have too much on their plate lol laugh.gif The has plenty of time to be a colder solution, I don't see this low taking an in land track, other than the seasons slow progression from cutters to coastals which as a result would cause the next storm to be the right one wink.gif that time frame would be the 4-8 of December, but until then I will watch this one carefully


This coulda been opened awhile ago. Another reason for deeming it the snobal thread.

We on this board must share the thread opening power though. For with it comes the power to produce flurries.... And snowballs lol

Shaulov may the flurry force be with you.

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 22 2016, 11:22 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 22 2016, 11:24 AM
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Starting to see the little japanese snow men leak South. They are planning their attack as we speak.



LJS index has been raised to 1.2 for this period.

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 22 2016, 11:24 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 22 2016, 11:33 AM
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12z gfs





Now that's a trof

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 22 2016, 11:34 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 22 2016, 11:39 AM
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There's a real decent look here given teles and that quasi 50/50



Monster Miller B in works?

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 22 2016, 11:59 AM


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LUCC
post Nov 22 2016, 11:55 AM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Nov 22 2016, 08:39 AM) *
I thought someone in the interior NE would get excited and post but I guess they have too much on their plate lol laugh.gif The has plenty of time to be a colder solution, I don't see this low taking an in land track, other than the seasons slow progression from cutters to coastals which as a result would cause the next storm to be the right one wink.gif that time frame would be the 4-8 of December, but until then I will watch this one carefully

blink.gif


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"
12/13-14 - 1.5"
12/15 - 2.25"
12/30 - 4"
1/4 - 6.5"
1/17 - 1"

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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telejunkie
post Nov 22 2016, 12:43 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 22 2016, 11:39 AM) *
There's a real decent look here given teles and that quasi 50/50



Monster Miller B in works?

good look...with that downstream set-up & confluence, certainly doesn't look like it could cut very far west at all...seems like it should hit a brick wall.


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 74”

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 22 2016, 12:45 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Nov 22 2016, 12:43 PM) *
good look...with that downstream set-up & confluence, certainly doesn't look like it could cut very far west at all...seems like it should hit a brick wall.


1-3 bsr






Almost like you were explaining the bsr maps smile.gif


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Undertakerson
post Nov 22 2016, 12:53 PM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Nov 22 2016, 08:39 AM) *
I thought someone in the interior NE would get excited and post but I guess they have too much on their plate lol laugh.gif The has plenty of time to be a colder solution, I don't see this low taking an in land track, other than the seasons slow progression from cutters to coastals which as a result would cause the next storm to be the right one wink.gif that time frame would be the 4-8 of December, but until then I will watch this one carefully

Too soon for the transition (IMHO, see signature block). But our day will come - unless I'm totally out to lunch and have wasted the better part of 8 years trying to get a grasp on things. laugh.gif
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 22 2016, 01:01 PM
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Ukmet


Would you look at you


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 22 2016, 01:31 PM
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Euro not quite the same at 144 lol



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telejunkie
post Nov 22 2016, 01:32 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 22 2016, 01:01 PM) *
Ukmet


Would you look at you

Ukie saying…'simmer down there big brother...'
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 74”

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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