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Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Oct 16 2017, 05:00 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Half of the city lost power for about 10 hrs last night thanks to the howling winds, gust to near 70 at the airport..First frost advisory issued for the lake plain for tomorrow night with projected lows hovering around freezing..First flakes should be flying soon, higher elevations mid oct and valleys late October on avg, so no surprise to see some flakes on some of the longer range guidance...
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249600 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Oct 12 2017, 09:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Quite the drop off from one day to the next, Gfs drops 850 mb temps down to -6c..

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249458 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Oct 10 2017, 08:08 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Finished with 1 3/4 over the last couple of days, already surpassing all of September..Looks like another 1/2-1 on tap for tomorrow..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249397 · Replies: · Views: 4,364

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Sep 26 2017, 12:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Hit 91 at the airport, 2nd 90 degree day this year..Looks like a 30 degree drop off by Thur/Fri..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2248337 · Replies: · Views: 4,384

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Sep 10 2017, 07:47 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Simon Brewer (saddlebunch keys) Video in link..

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https://mobile.twitter.com/simonstormrider?lang=en
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2245173 · Replies: · Views: 1,315,122

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Sep 9 2017, 08:41 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Sep 9 2017, 09:24 AM) *
The question is how much does Irma strengthen once back in open water, if at all? Also I wonder if it's possible she turns northerly so late she winds up in the eastern GOM like many Gfs members show, I'm sure that wouldn't be good news for city's like Tampa..I have a good buddy in pensacola who is expecting nothing and my sister in law in Orlando expecting the worst.. unsure.gif

Kinda what I was alluding to..

NHC
QUOTE
Because of the concerns in the track
forecast noted above, Irma would be able to maintain a strong
intensity for a longer period of time if the center stays off the
west Florida coast. Regardless, Irma is still expected to be a
dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and the west
coast of Florida through 48 hours.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Irma
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2244244 · Replies: · Views: 1,315,122

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Sep 9 2017, 08:24 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


The question is how much does Irma strengthen once back in open water, if at all? Also I wonder if it's possible she turns northerly so late she winds up in the eastern GOM like many Gfs members show, I'm sure that wouldn't be good news for city's like Tampa..I have a good buddy in pensacola who is expecting nothing and my sister in law in Orlando expecting the worst.. unsure.gif
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2244234 · Replies: · Views: 1,315,122

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Aug 28 2017, 06:47 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


A "Balmy" 51 this morning compared to the last 2 mornings (44,46), Friday morning looks like another chilly one, 850s below freezing this time of year is pretty impressive..Not much to complain about weather wise..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2236252 · Replies: · Views: 12,341

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Aug 23 2017, 01:59 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Nothing severe here, just some heavy rain, picked up 1.5" ..Need 1/4" for another 4" month..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2235078 · Replies: · Views: 4,344

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Aug 22 2017, 06:40 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Kbuf

QUOTE
Cooler air will filter into the region Wednesday night and Thursday
in the wake of this frontal passage, with 850 mb temperatures
falling to around +5 to +6C for Thursday. This cooler air will
elicit a lake response, that will be mitigated by fairly dry air
and a stout inversion to start the day. Thus, this lake response
will mainly manifest as low cloudiness, which will help to keep
daytime highs limited to the mid to upper 60s. A sharper trough axis
will then move across Lake Erie Thursday late afternoon/evening.
Expect enough low level convergence with the attendant surface
boundary, along with some added lake moisture, to produce some
scattered showers and even perhaps thunderstorms as the mid-level
lapse rates steepen up. These will most likely be focused south of
Lake Ontario across the Niagara Frontier and Lake Erie late in the
day. As this trough moves over Lake Erie by late afternoon, any line
of showers and/or thunderstorms moving over the warmer lake waters
would be prone to produce waterspouts, and have included the chance
in the forecast. Showers and any thunderstorms will dissipate with
the loss of heating with clearing skies. Overnight lows will reach
the mid 40s to low 50s with the cooler airmass in place.





QUOTE
Friday through the weekend, the aforementioned upper level low will
make its exit eastward while a sprawling Canadian high pressure
system builds slowly eastward across the Great Lakes region. This
will bring a stretch of cooler and drier air more reminiscent of
fall, but with fairly light winds. There will be some day-to-day
warming as the airmass modifies with high temperatures slowly
building from the upper 60s Friday to the mid 70s by Monday. Nights
will be cool and crisp, with overnight lows ranging from the low
40s in inland valleys to the low 50s along the lake plains.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234921 · Replies: · Views: 12,341

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Aug 4 2017, 06:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


In for a nice soaker tonight, pouring out..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2233854 · Replies: · Views: 8,532

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Aug 2 2017, 10:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Finished the month with about 4 1/2" of precip here, 5th consecutive month of 4"+..Avg high for July was 79 with an avg low of 60, still only one 90 degree day to date compared to 11 at this time last year..


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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2233566 · Replies: · Views: 61,744

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Jul 2 2017, 07:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Confirmed tornado in Vernon ny, just a few miles from turning stone resort and casino..Utica picked up almost 5 1/2" of rain total, finished with about an inch imby..

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http://www.wktv.com/story/35795139/tornado...rnonverona-area
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2231418 · Replies: · Views: 6,666

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Jul 1 2017, 07:18 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Pouring out, what's new.. It has rained at least 16 days or more 3 consecutive months, it looks like July is starting off wet just like June did..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2231350 · Replies: · Views: 6,666

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Jun 25 2017, 02:35 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Confirmed

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QUOTE
HOWELL, New Jersey - National Weather Service: Multiple tornadoes confirmed near Howell, New Jersey

Multiple tornadoes were confirmed near Howell, New Jersey on Saturday morning, the National Weather Service confirms.

The EF-O tornadoes were reported at 7:21 and 7:27 Saturday morning
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2231065 · Replies: · Views: 6,485

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Jun 18 2017, 05:34 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


QUOTE
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Cayuga County in central New York...
Southwestern Oswego County in central New York...

* Until 715 PM EDT.

* At 630 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Chimney Bluffs State Park to near Clyde, moving
northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to
mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
Oswego, Fulton, Fair Haven Beach State Park, Weedsport, Cato,
Mexico Point State Park, Nine Mile Point and Battle Island State
Park


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230535 · Replies: · Views: 12,709

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Jun 17 2017, 10:40 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Needless to say we don't need the rain..

QUOTE
The water level in Lake Ontario remains as high as it has been in 100 years of record-keeping. Experts say it likely will be several months before the level drops appreciably.



QUOTE
The concern remains that a long-lived, truly severe storm something not all that common in summertime could drown the shoreline in much larger waves.
"If we get a storm, the damage could be horrendous. The damage could be horrendous," Cuomo said. "People are living on pins and needles."


http://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/...eece/353110001/
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230413 · Replies: · Views: 12,709

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Jun 17 2017, 10:33 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Hwo kbuf

QUOTE
A slow moving cold front will help to generate strong to severe
thunderstorms very late Sunday afternoon and night. While the
primary threat of severe weather will come in the form of damaging
straight line winds...a greater risk will come from slow moving
torrential downpours that could result in localized flash flooding.
Some sites could receive in excess of two inches of rain in less than
an hour.


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230412 · Replies: · Views: 12,709

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Jun 15 2017, 04:24 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Picked up 1/4" of rain so far bringing June's total to 2", Gfs has 7" of rain over the next 5 days( laugh.gif),including a few inches tonight from the slow moving storms off to my SW..

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2230284 · Replies: · Views: 61,744

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Jun 5 2017, 06:47 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


June starting off where April/may left off..Picked up over 11" of rain the last 2 months and about about 1.5" so far in June, torrential downpours at the moment..May finished with an avg high of 65 degrees, so far in June 64 degrees..
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2229725 · Replies: · Views: 61,744

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: May 5 2017, 05:41 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


No end in sight on the 12z gfs, shows 40's and 50's for highs in the 3rd week of may..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227561 · Replies: · Views: 17,003

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: May 5 2017, 07:10 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


This would be a 1st for me..

QUOTE
Precip type will start off as all rain Saturday evening, but enough
cold air aloft and at the surface will wrap into the western edge of
the system to allow for wet snow to mix in late Saturday night
across Western NY. By Sunday morning precip type will likely change
to all wet snow across the higher terrain of Western NY, with at
least a mix with wet snow at lower elevations and possibly all snow
for a time. This will then continue through the day Sunday, with a
mix of rain/snow at lower elevations and potentially all snow across
higher terrain. Sunday night the airmass grows even colder, with
850mb temps bottoming out in the -7C to -9C range depending on model
of choice. This will allow even the lower elevations to change to
mainly wet snow Sunday night into Monday morning. The airmass aloft
remains very chilly through the day Monday, as does the boundary
layer, with all snow in the morning transitioning to a mix of rain
and wet snow in the afternoon as the diurnal cycle tries to warm the
boundary layer


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227518 · Replies: · Views: 17,003

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: May 5 2017, 06:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Another 3/4" in the bucket so far with plenty more to come, Gfs is close to some mangled flakes with surface in the mid 30s and 850 mb temps dropping down to -8c, won't happen here but north/elevation "may" see some flakes..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227517 · Replies: · Views: 8,398

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: May 1 2017, 07:41 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Not much severe here, just pouring out..Picked up 2.2" of rain so far..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227307 · Replies: · Views: 11,019

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: May 1 2017, 09:20 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,245
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Kbuf

QUOTE
There is very high confidence that this will be a wet and unsettled
period. In fact...our forecast area will most likely be on the
receiving end of another significant rainfall...something that we do
not need after one of the wettest April`s in recorded history. The
GEFS and ECMWF based ensembles (including the operational runs) are
in strong agreement that an unusually well organized storm for early
May will track from the Tennessee Valley across our forecast area.
This system will be more typical of a mid winter storm...both in its
intensity...upper level support and overall structure. The only
difference is that temperatures will be some 5 deg c too high for a
major snowstorm. That being said...


QUOTE
The pending storm system will be supported by a highly amplified
pattern...again...more typical of mid winter. A very strong...full
latitude ridge will be anchored over the western states while an
anomalously deep trough (-3 STD) with an early May return interval
of once every 10 years will be found over the eastern third of the
country. Despite the impressive climatology behind this pattern...
there will initially be two distinct branches within the deep
trough. The wet storm system that will bring a substantial rainfall
to our region will be found within the southern branch...but as we
work through the weekend...very robust energy within the northern
branch will dive south across the Upper Great Lakes to phase the two
into a broad closed low that will largely reside over western Quebec


QUOTE
Digging deeper into the details of this storm system...it will
already be raining across all of our forecast area as we open this
period Thursday evening...but the most significant rain will be yet
to come. A strongly divergent upper level flow will be in place
across the Lower Great Lakes Thursday night...while even stronger
forcing aloft will be generated from a coupled H25 jet. Meanwhile in
the low levels...increasing baroclinicity in the H925-85 layer will
establish a steep surface for a 40-50kt low level jet to impinge up
on. All of this lift will be accompanied by a wealth of Atlantic
moisture that will extend back across our region from the Delmarva
Peninsula. This will boil down to a steady rain Thursday...which
could prove to be heavy at times...mainly over the western counties.
Have taken the lead and raised pops to 90 regionwide.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227210 · Replies: · Views: 8,398

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