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> Autumn 2017
snowgeek93
post Aug 3 2017, 08:35 AM
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Less than a month now until meteorological fall so might as well get this started...

AccuWeather:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...nessee/70002317

The Weather Channel:

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/...weather-company



--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 4
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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knorthern_knight
post Aug 28 2017, 12:35 AM
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From the "Notes" section of the JAXA website at http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=33278

QUOTE
Aug. 25, 2017
Prediction from 1st Aug., 2017

ENSO forecast:
A neutral state in the tropical Pacific will persist until boreal winter. Then, a weak La Niņa-like pattern will appear in the spring of 2018.


I'm personally expecting the pattern change to occur sooner and La Nina to be going by December. Note the drop in NINO34 the past few weeks in the graph below from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

Attached File  nino34.png ( 41.78K ) Number of downloads: 0
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SNOWBOB11
post Aug 28 2017, 08:25 AM
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I agree on the Nina being in place by December. Models were originally predicting Nino for the winter and now that it doesn't seem like that will be the case anymore they seem to be playing catch up. As we get closer I think you'll see models predicting a earlier and possibly stronger Nina.
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newfiebrit
post Aug 31 2017, 08:28 AM
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It has certainly felt fallish at times all ready this month, the past couple of days no exception with a definite chill in the air with lows in the single digits and highs in the teens though still nice and sunny weather.

That said later next week looks fairly warm and humid here, September is usually a decent month overall with lots of sunshine and relatively warm days.

Thing to watch right now is the track of Irma and any further future TS which is usually around the time over the next month or so we see impact (if any).

This post has been edited by newfiebrit: Aug 31 2017, 08:30 AM
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snowgeek93
post Sep 1 2017, 09:54 AM
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Quite a chilly morning at only 12C! Even that early September sun angle can't entirely offset the cool feeling.

Fall is coming!


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 4
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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newfiebrit
post Sep 1 2017, 11:09 AM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Sep 1 2017, 12:24 PM) *
Quite a chilly morning at only 12C! Even that early September sun angle can't entirely offset the cool feeling.

Fall is coming!


Was out walking the dog in the dark before 8pm last night, about 10c with a cold Northerly wind and drizzle in the air, almost felt like it might snow, had to wear a heavy raincoat, got me looking forward to wrapping up once again every evening in winter attire! Parts of Labrador all ready had a bit of snow yesterday, usually October we may see a scatter of flurries in St John's, November can produce a decent snow storm though in recent years it has been pretty mild.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland...ummer-1.4271530

This post has been edited by newfiebrit: Sep 1 2017, 11:13 AM
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snowgeek93
post Sep 2 2017, 07:13 AM
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Only 7C here this morning! ohmy.gif

It's so cool that fog is developing on my windows and it's only early September! Fall making quite it's mark this early on. Can't believe other places in the province already had frost.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 4
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Sep 2 2017, 08:51 AM
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Some models are predicting Irma to come in around Chesapeake Bay to long Island as a category 4, and get pulled back west.
Long way out for any predictions but east coast looks in play.
Irma models are also showing up to a category 5 in some cases around 900mb so this could be fun to track.
Still early but seems to have some eye redeveloping at the moment with very warm water ahead
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travis3000
post Sep 2 2017, 09:30 AM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Sep 2 2017, 08:13 AM) *
Only 7C here this morning! ohmy.gif

It's so cool that fog is developing on my windows and it's only early September! Fall making quite it's mark this early on. Can't believe other places in the province already had frost.


We dropped down to -1C for the second night in a row in Alliston. Furnace is on this morning. Unreal. This will go down as one of the top 5 worst summers in memory.

Next 7 days look miserable. We will unlikely hit 25C again, in fact for the first time in 50 years Calgary is going to report more 25C days then both Toronto and Alliston. It's never happened before.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Sep 2 2017, 09:32 AM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 29cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Sep 2 2017, 12:45 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Sep 2 2017, 09:30 AM) *
We dropped down to -1C for the second night in a row in Alliston. Furnace is on this morning. Unreal. This will go down as one of the top 5 worst summers in memory.

Next 7 days look miserable. We will unlikely hit 25C again, in fact for the first time in 50 years Calgary is going to report more 25C days then both Toronto and Alliston. It's never happened before.


Dude, you had a better summer than us, although it only got down to 5 here last night...you have a very odd microclimate there.

You still moving to Barrie? Prices are a bargain at the moment. The economy is stoked, they aren't building many SFHs, and everyome is waiting to see who blinks first...most sellers I know are just testing the market, and aren't worried if they sell or not. This definitely one of those buy the dip moments in my opinion.
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travis3000
post Sep 2 2017, 03:13 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Sep 2 2017, 01:45 PM) *
Dude, you had a better summer than us, although it only got down to 5 here last night...you have a very odd microclimate there.

You still moving to Barrie? Prices are a bargain at the moment. The economy is stoked, they aren't building many SFHs, and everyome is waiting to see who blinks first...most sellers I know are just testing the market, and aren't worried if they sell or not. This definitely one of those buy the dip moments in my opinion.


Already bought wink.gif Will be spending my first winter in Barrie this year. It will be an incredible contrast to Alliston I'm sure. Very pumped to have some real storms and do a comparison between the two areas. I will be commuting to Alliston everyday, so I can provide updates to you guys on the difference between the two zones, only 35KM apart yet one averages 155cm per year, the other 225-265cm.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Sep 2 2017, 03:17 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 29cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Sep 3 2017, 09:55 AM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Sep 2 2017, 04:13 PM) *
Already bought wink.gif Will be spending my first winter in Barrie this year. It will be an incredible contrast to Alliston I'm sure. Very pumped to have some real storms and do a comparison between the two areas. I will be commuting to Alliston everyday, so I can provide updates to you guys on the difference between the two zones, only 35KM apart yet one averages 155cm per year, the other 225-265cm.

Awesome!

Be sure to share some pics of those epic lake effect events with us less fortunate down here. We'll try not to be too jealous wink.gif



--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 4
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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snowgeek93
post Sep 3 2017, 09:57 AM
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Sun is back out on this cool morning at only 15C. Honestly feels like we jumped a whole month ahead in the weather department, a stark contrast to the past two September's around here.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 4
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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snowgeek93
post Sep 4 2017, 07:46 AM
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Stunning weather coming up for later this week and into the weekend. Gotta love September weather! biggrin.gif


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 4
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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Lake effect
post Sep 4 2017, 09:10 AM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Sep 4 2017, 07:46 AM) *
Stunning weather coming up for later this week and into the weekend. Gotta love September weather! biggrin.gif


Yes, a classic next weekend. Still, pleasant sunfilled days, cool nights. Need to service my bike!
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snowbelt
post Sep 4 2017, 10:54 AM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Sep 2 2017, 04:13 PM) *
Already bought wink.gif Will be spending my first winter in Barrie this year. It will be an incredible contrast to Alliston I'm sure. Very pumped to have some real storms and do a comparison between the two areas. I will be commuting to Alliston everyday, so I can provide updates to you guys on the difference between the two zones, only 35KM apart yet one averages 155cm per year, the other 225-265cm.

Going to miss yah in these parts Travis . Glad to hear you are commuting to the area and provide some updates . I will keep the updates coming for the Mansfield area .
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PGM
post Sep 4 2017, 11:08 AM
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I made a thread for today's severe weather threat


--------------------
Winter 2017-18 stats

First freeze (below 0*C): November 8th
Coldest temperature: -7.7*C (November 10th)
Days entirely below freezing: 1

First flakes: October 31st
First accumulating snowfall: November 10th
Biggest snowfall: 4cm (November 10th)
Seasonal total: 7cm
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snowgeek93
post Sep 4 2017, 02:43 PM
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26C and sunny this afternoon and feeling very summer-like here.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 4
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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snowbelt
post Sep 4 2017, 02:51 PM
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Squall line is just to my west right now , sky is darkening real fast . should be getting quite the light show any minute
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newfiebrit
post Sep 5 2017, 05:14 AM
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Currently in Montreal for a few days so hoping the rain stays away, was pretty decent yesterday though ended in heavy showers. The weather in St John's actually looks better than here the next few days, always the way!
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