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> Long Range Autumn 2017 Outlooks, Thoughts & Discussions, Is summer hanging on or will winter come early?
JymGanahlRocks
post Aug 27 2017, 08:10 PM
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Could be a nice, crisp start to meteorological fall...

This post has been edited by JymGanahlRocks: Aug 27 2017, 08:11 PM
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jdrenken
post Aug 28 2017, 01:11 PM
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Typhoon Sanvu...hmmmm...





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so_whats_happeni...
post Aug 28 2017, 02:06 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 10 2017, 10:39 PM) *
CFS monthly is garbage but wanted to share this epic flip flop fall pattern. Crazy cold/flu season haha






Yea too much waffling for a model which well we know doesnt normally happen. But thinking we continue the cool pattern into september and then possibly go back to a above normal temp regime starting october into early november but this is just guesstimate for now. It will be interesting to see the response in the arctic as well as the strato formation with the EQBO descending. We are now starting to see the MJO get a little more active and maybe complete a full cycle in the coming weeks.

I do have a question do el nino tendencies in the summer create a cooler then normal south with abundant precip. Because so far this summer looks fairly nino like to me unless im switching my ideas between nino and nina.


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Juniorrr
post Aug 28 2017, 02:33 PM
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Nice trough on the Euro LR
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Attached File  ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png ( 130.19K ) Number of downloads: 3
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 28 2017, 03:13 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Aug 28 2017, 03:06 PM) *
Yea too much waffling for a model which well we know doesnt normally happen. But thinking we continue the cool pattern into september and then possibly go back to a above normal temp regime starting october into early november but this is just guesstimate for now. It will be interesting to see the response in the arctic as well as the strato formation with the EQBO descending. We are now starting to see the MJO get a little more active and maybe complete a full cycle in the coming weeks.

I do have a question do el nino tendencies in the summer create a cooler then normal south with abundant precip. Because so far this summer looks fairly nino like to me unless im switching my ideas between nino and nina.

Generally, yes, Nino summers are usually wet and cool... much like this one. You're not wrong to say this has been Nino-like because we did have a Nino try to emerge in the late winter through spring. It's believed that there's a lag between ENSO and the corresponding pattern in the mid-latitudes... so it makes sense, with all things considered, that we saw a Nino-like summer.

Furthermore, with the Nina peaking in the late fall last year, it also makes sense that the first 4 months of this year were very warm and had very active severe weather, only to slowly die off as the regime changed in the late spring.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 28 2017, 03:14 PM


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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
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so_whats_happeni...
post Aug 28 2017, 03:30 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 28 2017, 04:13 PM) *
Generally, yes, Nino summers are usually wet and cool... much like this one. You're not wrong to say this has been Nino-like because we did have a Nino try to emerge in the late winter through spring. It's believed that there's a lag between ENSO and the corresponding pattern in the mid-latitudes... so it makes sense, with all things considered, that we saw a Nino-like summer.

Furthermore, with the Nina peaking in the late fall last year, it also makes sense that the first 4 months of this year were very warm and had very active severe weather, only to slowly die off as the regime changed in the late spring.


I always forget to incorporate the lag effect but seems to make sense with that idea.


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snowlover2
post Aug 28 2017, 03:41 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Aug 28 2017, 03:33 PM) *
Nice trough on the Euro LR

GFS similar.
Attached File  gfs_z500a_us_41.png ( 128.82K ) Number of downloads: 4


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OSNW3
post Aug 29 2017, 11:51 AM
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My 2016-17 RRWT experiments are complete. Final results have been integrated into one analog selection model. If you are a fan of the http://www.consonantchaos.com site and RRWT outlooks, refresh you browser cache. The layout has changed slightly. New extended outlooks and analog selection method analyses. Added composites for weeks 3 & 4 and weeks 5 & 6. October opens below average in the Great Lakes via latest model run.




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RobB
post Aug 30 2017, 08:48 AM
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Well now it is time for me to try and start posting more as we are coming to meteorological fall and falling average temperatures smile.gif

8/30 0Z NAEFS:


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NorEaster07
post Aug 30 2017, 02:21 PM
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Temp departures each week this August 2017 except for 30th & 31st.


U.S View. Wow South Dakota. Looks like this last week of August they are warming up. Illinois only 1 warm week.

Attached File  temps20.jpg ( 398.95K ) Number of downloads: 2




Northeast View. Only 1 week was above normal but the dew points weren't that bad for several days so made it tolerable. Great memorable month overall.

Attached File  temps21.jpg ( 493.11K ) Number of downloads: 0
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grace
post Aug 30 2017, 04:08 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 30 2017, 02:21 PM) *
Temp departures each week this August 2017 except for 30th & 31st.


U.S View. Wow South Dakota. Looks like this last week of August they are warming up. Illinois only 1 warm week.

Attached File  temps20.jpg ( 398.95K ) Number of downloads: 2




Northeast View. Only 1 week was above normal but the dew points weren't that bad for several days so made it tolerable. Great memorable month overall.

Attached File  temps21.jpg ( 493.11K ) Number of downloads: 0



Hey Rob...do you mind linking the temp departure site you're using. Thanks
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NorEaster07
post Aug 30 2017, 07:41 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 30 2017, 05:08 PM) *
Hey Rob...do you mind linking the temp departure site you're using. Thanks


Me or Rob? Lol

https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps
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grace
post Aug 30 2017, 09:08 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 30 2017, 07:41 PM) *



Whoops...you! Thanks wink.gif
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ILStormwatcher
post Sep 1 2017, 11:13 AM
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Looks like September will be warm to hot for most of the country with perhaps only the northeast and eastern Great Lakes catching any early fall air masses. Also quite an expansive area of drier then normal conditions west of the Appalachians and into much of the Rocky Mountains. The turn to fall likely will wait until October, but might start as early as the last couple days of September. Otherwise another extension of Summer month as usual.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Sep 1 2017, 01:28 PM
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QUOTE(ILStormwatcher @ Sep 1 2017, 12:13 PM) *
Looks like September will be warm to hot for most of the country with perhaps only the northeast and eastern Great Lakes catching any early fall air masses. Also quite an expansive area of drier then normal conditions west of the Appalachians and into much of the Rocky Mountains. The turn to fall likely will wait until October, but might start as early as the last couple days of September. Otherwise another extension of Summer month as usual.


Maybe for the middle of the country the heat may return over the already parched areas of the upper midwest region but overall I do not know if I would call the majority of the country warm the west seems to hold onto the ridging, especially inter mountain west to maybe BC area, as per what they have already. This may allow troughs to dive south more in extent as wavelengths begin to change and we get bigger dips and peaks. If that budding ridge/ high pressure off the east says anything is that it may not quite work out with a warm country.


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grace
post Sep 1 2017, 01:30 PM
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QUOTE(ILStormwatcher @ Sep 1 2017, 11:13 AM) *
Looks like September will be warm to hot for most of the country with perhaps only the northeast and eastern Great Lakes catching any early fall air masses. Also quite an expansive area of drier then normal conditions west of the Appalachians and into much of the Rocky Mountains. The turn to fall likely will wait until October, but might start as early as the last couple days of September. Otherwise another extension of Summer month as usual.



Disagree! Cool, then warm-up, then cool down. Looks very similar to August but perhaps not quiet as cool on departures.

If your calling for a lot of heat you must be referring to the Pac NW.

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NorEaster07
post Sep 2 2017, 07:18 AM
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My backyard 1st Frosts: (not using just temps, actual visual of 1st frost)


Nov 1, 2010
Oct 27, 2011
Oct 13, 2012
Oct 25, 2013
Oct 20, 2014
Oct 18, 2015 (1st frost, freeze and snowflakes)
Oct 25, 2016



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WeatherMonger
post Sep 2 2017, 11:02 AM
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Chilly this AM

QUOTE
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
0901 AM CDT SAT SEP 02 2017

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT SPRINGFIELD IL...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 42 DEGREES WAS SET AT SPRINGFIELD IL
THIS MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 48 SET IN 1909, 1952,
1955, 1967, AND 2009.
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jdrenken
post Sep 3 2017, 08:18 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Sep 2 2017, 11:02 AM) *
Chilly this AM


Pretty impressive anomaly there!


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NorEaster07
post Sep 4 2017, 11:12 AM
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2-3 weeks early as far as the start of the changes go. While in general we're still full and deep green you dont have to look hard for the changes. Also, squirrels are carrying things more.



One more




Temp departures last 7 days. U.S view and Northeast view. Cool pattern started around the 23rd in the Northeast

https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps

Attached File  temps8.jpg ( 235.22K ) Number of downloads: 1




Here's the Average Temp last 7 days


Attached File  temps9.jpg ( 133.5K ) Number of downloads: 1

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