Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

12 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 5 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> August 24- September 15, 2017 MidAtl/NE Cool snap, Observations
bingobobbo
post Aug 20 2017, 01:22 PM
Post #41




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,406
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Endwell, NY
Member No.: 16,598





Fortunately, the cooling trend is back in the current NWS discussion. Saturday's record low is 46 degrees--we probably won't equal it, but we might have our first sub-50 August low in three years.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
kpk33x
post Aug 20 2017, 02:15 PM
Post #42




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 1,815
Joined: 18-July 05
From: Mahomet, IL
Member No.: 1,100





I've got a nice four day stretch of low 70s' for highs, low 50's for lows, and mostly sunny skies Thursday through Sunday.

Just a few humid and warm days in between...today is warm, tomorrow will be uncomfortable and Tuesday will suck (88F, then showers, T-storms)


--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F: Oct. 16
...Frost: Oct. 25
...First sub-freezing low: Oct. 29
...Snow reported: Oct. 28

Foliage: As close to peak as we'll see here (Nov. 4)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Aug 20 2017, 03:16 PM
Post #43




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,441
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





The change from day before to after still seems like it will be impressive. For northern New England its Tuesday to Wednesday difference. Here we have to wait till Friday to feel the effects.

After the front passes there will be a sigh of relief and that "taste" of fall.

NWS Burlington VT

QUOTE
National Weather Service Burlington VT
335 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Overnight lows will not cool off much especially Monday night
in high dewpoint air, and cooling/drying will not arrive in time
Tuesday night to be of much help. Max temps Tuesday well into
the 80s once again with warm air advection, and will be quite a
muggy day.



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 253 PM EDT Sunday...The extended forecast will feature
large scale pattern change as deep full latitude trof develops
across the eastern Conus and ridge builds out west. This will
result in temps returning to at or below normal values with much
less humidity.
The forecast challenge will be timing individual
short waves in the southwest to eventually northwest flow aloft
and potential areal coverage of showers. Overall...the
atmosphere will have much less available moisture as pw values
drop below 1.0 and instability is very limited.

On Wednesday...first embedded 5h vort arrives around 18z...along
with secondary surface convergence line with some additional weak
low level cold air advection behind boundary. Instability is driven
off sfc heating and developing cool pool aloft with deepening
trof...so 30 to 40% chance of showers with maybe a rumble or two of
thunder...but cape values are weak. Soundings show high cloud bases
with deep dry layer so areal coverage of showers will be
limited...but some localized gusty winds possible based on sounding
profiles. Progged 850mb temps around 10c support highs upper 60s
mountains to upper 70s warmest values.
Low level cold air advection
continues overnight into Thurs with progged 850mb temps dropping
btwn 5-7c by 12z Thurs. The gradient flow will limit fog development
and keep temps from completely bottoming out with lows mainly 40s
mountains to mid/upper 50s valleys.

Thursday...another embedded 5h vort in the west/northwest flow aloft
and associated pocket of -20c air moves across our cwa
.
This energy
will limited moisture will help to produce isolated/scattered
showers during on Thurs aftn. Once again areal coverage and amount
of showers will be limited...because of pws around 0.50 to 0.70.
Progged 850mb temps near 6c support highs upper 50s/lower 60s
mountains to lower 70s warmest valleys.


Friday into next weekend...will feature building 1025mb surface high
pres while aloft remains active with embedded 5h vorts in the
northwest flow.
Each piece of energy will have less impact with
limited moisture...so will keep Friday dry at this time...with temps
mainly 60s mountains and lower/mid 70s warmer valleys. Lows mainly
in the mid 30s to upper 40s depending upon locations
...with coldest
values at SLK/NEK...especially on Saturday morning.

Next weekend is
looking mainly dry with slightly below normal temps and low humidity
values. Highs in the 60s mountains and 70s valleys with lows ranging
from the lower 40s to mid 50s.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Aug 20 2017, 03:26 PM
Post #44




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,441
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Euro12z temps at 5000' for Thursday morning

Attached Image

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Aug 20 2017, 03:31 PM
Post #45




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,441
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





4 Maps..

Today August 20, 2017. Many days like this north of Philly this month. Max 70s-Low 80s with dews in the dry 50s and low 60s

Attached Image




Tomorrow August 21, 2017. Hot-Humid one.


Attached Image



Mid week here comes the front


Attached Image



End of week..

Attached Image


Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Aug 20 2017, 09:08 PM
Post #46




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,441
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





QUOTE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
926 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Tuesday...

Summer is back. It will be hot and humid
as high pressure
shifts offshore and southwest breezes increase, well in advance
of an approaching cold front. With 925 mb temperatures reaching
25-26C and a good deal of sunshine, expecting highs to soar to
90-95. Dewpoints will be rising to near 70 by late afternoon and
heat indices will be reach the mid 90s. Our new criteria for
Heat Advisories is 95 degrees, but it needs to be for 2
consecutive days, unless it hits 100, which would only require
1 day. Since it will probably not be reached on Monday, we may
issue a Special Weather Statement to draw attention to it, as
opposed to a Heat Advisory.

Southwest winds increase to 30-40 kts at 925 mb Tue afternoon,
so expect gusts at the surface to 20-25 mph at times, especially
in southeast MA and RI. CAPE is maximized over NY state, well
to our west, close to the cold front and that is where the best
potential exists for strong/severe thunderstorm activity.
However, a few showers and thunderstorms could form over the
higher terrain of western MA and northwest CT in the mid-late
afternoon hours.


Wednesday...

Cold front swings across southern New England. Timing is still in
question, but consensus would have the front exiting the coast
in the afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday...

High pressure builds in at the surface while an upper trough digs
south from Quebec. The trough will carry a cold pool with cold
advection aloft on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures at 500 mb
will minimize at around -16C early Saturday morning. Moisture
fields show a moist layer between 850 and 700 mb during this
period, but dry air above and below. This looks like a mostly
sunny and dry pattern, but the instability shows some potential
for a few showers on Saturday. The mixed layer reaches to
between 850 and 800 mb, with temps at the top of the layer
supporting max sfc temps in the 70s...giving a fall-like feel.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s each night
.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Aug 21 2017, 04:27 PM
Post #47




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 28,874
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





AFDCTP

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

.
QUOTE
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A strong cold frontal passage late Tuesday (NW PA)/Tuesday
night (SE PA) will be followed by a extended period of early
autumn-like weather for Wednesday into the upcoming weekend as
an anomalously deep sfc low/upper trough slides east across
southeastern Canada.

Daytime high temps will be about 5-7 Deg F below normal across
the Western Mtns on Wednesday, though still just slightly below
normal across the SE zones prior to the arrival of the
deeper/colder air
for the latter part of the week.

GEFS mean 850 mb temps will dip about 2-3 deg C in all locations
for Thursday-Sunday, leading to max temps averaging 5-10 F
below normal (with min temp departures about 10-13F below
normal Friday-Sunday)
as a large Canadian High Pressure area
pushes SE across the Glakes Region and becomes centered over the
NE states.

Lows Fri/Sat/Sun mornings with high centered overhead, will be
dipping into the l-m 40s over the Northern Mountains (and
deeper valleys of the Central Mountains) and solidly into the
50s elsewhere. Some of the perennial cold spots near and to the
east of KBFD could see readings of 38 or 39F
.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Aug 21 2017, 05:41 PM
Post #48




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,441
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





For around this area. Cant wait.

Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Mike W IN herkim...
post Aug 22 2017, 06:40 AM
Post #49




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,266
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547





Kbuf

QUOTE
Cooler air will filter into the region Wednesday night and Thursday
in the wake of this frontal passage, with 850 mb temperatures
falling to around +5 to +6C for Thursday. This cooler air will
elicit a lake response, that will be mitigated by fairly dry air
and a stout inversion to start the day. Thus, this lake response
will mainly manifest as low cloudiness, which will help to keep
daytime highs limited to the mid to upper 60s. A sharper trough axis
will then move across Lake Erie Thursday late afternoon/evening.
Expect enough low level convergence with the attendant surface
boundary, along with some added lake moisture, to produce some
scattered showers and even perhaps thunderstorms as the mid-level
lapse rates steepen up. These will most likely be focused south of
Lake Ontario across the Niagara Frontier and Lake Erie late in the
day. As this trough moves over Lake Erie by late afternoon, any line
of showers and/or thunderstorms moving over the warmer lake waters
would be prone to produce waterspouts, and have included the chance
in the forecast. Showers and any thunderstorms will dissipate with
the loss of heating with clearing skies. Overnight lows will reach
the mid 40s to low 50s with the cooler airmass in place.





QUOTE
Friday through the weekend, the aforementioned upper level low will
make its exit eastward while a sprawling Canadian high pressure
system builds slowly eastward across the Great Lakes region. This
will bring a stretch of cooler and drier air more reminiscent of
fall, but with fairly light winds. There will be some day-to-day
warming as the airmass modifies with high temperatures slowly
building from the upper 60s Friday to the mid 70s by Monday. Nights
will be cool and crisp, with overnight lows ranging from the low
40s in inland valleys to the low 50s along the lake plains.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Aug 22 2017, 06:41 AM


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 0.2 (as of 11/11)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1
My PWS
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Aug 22 2017, 12:45 PM
Post #50




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,441
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Since its multiple days worth its hard to pick and choose 1 day to show. But here's Friday 25ths forecast max temps. Some struggling to pass 60s will surely feel Fall like. But even the near 80 for Mid Atlantic is below normal and September like

Attached Image


And this is what the normal max is

Attached Image

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Aug 22 2017, 12:50 PM
Post #51




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,441
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Here is the Low forecast for Saturday 26th. Lots of 40s around. Crisp.


Attached Image


Record low for Binghamton is 46 for that date. I think most of the warm big airport sites and the UHI's wont drop to 40s. That feels like its tough this time of year.


Attached Image


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Aug 22 2017, 12:51 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Aug 22 2017, 12:53 PM
Post #52




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,441
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864






Here it comes. Currently over Michigan/Illinois/Missouri

Attached Image



By tomorrow afternoon over KY/WV/PA/NY/VT


Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Aug 23 2017, 05:53 AM
Post #53




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,441
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Last morning with dews in the muggy 70s. 50s next 6 days.

Current surface map.

Attached Image

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Aug 23 2017, 05:57 AM
Post #54




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,441
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





GFS6z and previous runs showing another dip next week.

Attached Image


Scattered frost for the hills Sept 1st?

Attached Image



Attached Image

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bingobobbo
post Aug 23 2017, 07:33 AM
Post #55




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,406
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Endwell, NY
Member No.: 16,598





Our record low of 46 on Saturday could be challenged, as could be the record of 43 on Sept. 1, which first occurred 50 years ago. Sept. 1, 1967 was one of the first weather dates that I recall, and I remember it being quite chilly while playing outside. I probably remember that date because it was the day my parents bought their first stereo.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Aug 23 2017, 08:15 AM
Post #56




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,301
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





Stunning morning here. 68F currently with a 63 DP and falling. Here we go, gorgeous.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Aug 23 2017, 08:18 AM
Post #57




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,301
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

The weekend forecast will still be dictated by high pressure over
northern New England. As has been advertised for a couple of days,
temperatures/humidity levels will be almost fall-like. The only
precipitation potential will come over the mountains at the end of
the day...and that would be limited to a stray shower.

Little will change for early next week, other than the center of the
high will move offshore. That could lead to a bit more moisture
flowing onshore, which may enhance diurnal/terrain showers.
We`re still talking about a small chance, with isolated to perhaps
at worst scattered coverage. And since water temperatures are in the
upper 70s, forecast air temperatures wouldn`t change much.


I'll bet in rains. haha

For an extended period MBY and ridges west, will struggle to get out of the 60's. Lovely.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
kpk33x
post Aug 23 2017, 11:17 AM
Post #58




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 1,815
Joined: 18-July 05
From: Mahomet, IL
Member No.: 1,100





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 22 2017, 01:50 PM) *
Here is the Low forecast for Saturday 26th. Lots of 40s around. Crisp.


Attached Image


Record low for Binghamton is 46 for that date. I think most of the warm big airport sites and the UHI's wont drop to 40s. That feels like its tough this time of year.


Attached Image


The last few days of August will be difficult to set record lows. There were memorable cold snaps over most of the area during that time frame in both 1965 and 1986. In some locations a 1982 cool snap also has some records. The records at BWI are even lower than those in the first few days of Sept.

Living NW of Baltimore the 1986 cool snap was stunning. Our low one morning was 42F and the day the front came through temperatures couldn't crack 60F in the rain. The BWI records the last 4 days of August are 48, 47, 45, and 49, all from 1986, with the 45 being coldest August morning on record. The first 4 days of Sept records are 53, 50, 46, 50


--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F: Oct. 16
...Frost: Oct. 25
...First sub-freezing low: Oct. 29
...Snow reported: Oct. 28

Foliage: As close to peak as we'll see here (Nov. 4)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Aug 23 2017, 01:07 PM
Post #59




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,441
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Aug 23 2017, 08:33 AM) *
Our record low of 46 on Saturday could be challenged, as could be the record of 43 on Sept. 1, which first occurred 50 years ago. Sept. 1, 1967 was one of the first weather dates that I recall, and I remember it being quite chilly while playing outside. I probably remember that date because it was the day my parents bought their first stereo.



QUOTE(kpk33x @ Aug 23 2017, 12:17 PM) *
The last few days of August will be difficult to set record lows. There were memorable cold snaps over most of the area during that time frame in both 1965 and 1986. In some locations a 1982 cool snap also has some records. The records at BWI are even lower than those in the first few days of Sept.

Living NW of Baltimore the 1986 cool snap was stunning. Our low one morning was 42F and the day the front came through temperatures couldn't crack 60F in the rain. The BWI records the last 4 days of August are 48, 47, 45, and 49, all from 1986, with the 45 being coldest August morning on record. The first 4 days of Sept records are 53, 50, 46, 50


Nice info and stats as usual. Good stuff! Interesting Last 4 days of August in 1986. That must of been something. I was too young to remember and was probably focused on my Cassette Walkman.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Aug 23 2017, 01:08 PM
Post #60




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,441
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Current surface map. Front finally off shore here now but having some residual warmth outside still. 78-81 in the area right now with full sun.

Attached Image


2pm Temps

Attached Image


2pm Dews.

Attached Image


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Aug 23 2017, 01:09 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

12 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 5 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 20th November 2017 - 02:28 AM