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> Hurricane Jose, 9/17 5PM EDT CAT 1 - 90 MPH - 967mb - Movement: N @ 9mph
rainstorm
post Sep 7 2017, 06:20 PM
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Need to keep a close eye on Jose for sure. It will get left behind in a very favorable upper environment and could landfall on the east coast.
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Qdeathstar
post Sep 7 2017, 06:28 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 7 2017, 06:58 PM) *
[attachment=329615:gfs_mslp...nd_us_47.png]


yikes.


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njwx7
post Sep 7 2017, 06:46 PM
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Just to provide some outlook per the 12z EPS guidance:

1) Euro Control has Jose meandering in the central Atlantic for days before ultimately going OTS with no threat to CONUS. However, it does spawn what would be Hurricane Lee by day 10 which would have to be watched.

2) The majority of the remaining members of the EPS also show Jose meandering and looping in the central Atlantic. Many go out to sea, but a few threaten the CONUS.

3) The NHC, in their 5pm advisory, highlights both the lack of an obvious steering flow and the complete lack of model consensus in the long-term:

CODE
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

Jose has continued to develop a well-defined eye on satellite
imagery this afternoon, with the eye now established in the center
of a ring of strong convection. 18 UTC Dvorak fixes from TAFB and
SAB came in at T5.5, which suggests 100 knot intensity. However,
given the ongoing improvements in satellite presentation and CIMSS
ADT numbers which have since climbed higher, the initial intensity
for this advisory is set at 105 knots. This makes Jose a Category 3
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. It is the
third major hurricane in the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season
(Harvey, Irma). It also means we have two major hurricanes
simultaneously in the Atlantic basin, which is not too common --
especially in such close proximity. The last time this happened was
in 2010 when Igor and Julia were both major hurricanes on September
15-16, and then Igor and Karl were both major hurricanes briefly on
September 17.

In the near-term, most factors appear aligned for continued
intensification. Outflow remains well-established in all quadrants,
and Jose has thus far not felt negative impacts from the dry air
situated just to its west and northwest. For this reason, we are
taking the intensity up to 120 knots at the 24 hour forecast point.
After that, a gradual decrease in intensity is shown, in line with
most intensity guidance. However, the intensity forecast generally
lies above most of the guidance in deference to the ongoing rapid
intensification trend. Global models do show that some of the dry
air to the west of Jose may wrap into the circulation in about
24-36 hours. That may be a contributing factor to the decrease in
intensity, as well as some increasing shear at the base of an upper
level low in the central Atlantic and perhaps the periphery of
Irma's upper level outflow. The smaller size of Jose may make it a
little more vulnerable to effects of dry air and shear.

The initial motion remains at 285/16kt, and Jose will continue to
be steered by a well established subtropical ridge. It should not
reach the ridge axis until about 36-48 hours, at which point the
ridge begins to erode a bit and Jose may turn a bit more toward the
northwest and eventually the north. The forecast track remains very
similar to the previous official forecast through 48 hours --
roughly between the operational GFS and ECMWF and close to the
multi-model consensus. After that time, the steering flow becomes
weaker and the forward motion should slow down. Models begin to
diverge more significantly at 96hr and especially 120hr. The
forecast at these time ranges lies closer to the multi-model
consensus and the operational ECMWF than models that show a quicker
exit to the east.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 15.5N 52.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 16.0N 54.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 16.6N 57.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 17.3N 59.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 18.4N 61.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 21.9N 65.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 25.5N 67.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 27.3N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Lamers/Carbin

NNNN


Obviously guidance this far out is a just a crapshoot, however, I think the key takeaway from this model cycle is that we should continue to keep an eye on Jose because conditions clearly are ripe to create and sustain tropical systems - and having a major hurricane sticking around in the Atlantic is a bit ominous.

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shane o mac
post Sep 7 2017, 07:33 PM
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QUOTE(njwx7 @ Sep 7 2017, 08:46 PM) *
Just to provide some outlook per the 12z EPS guidance:

1) Euro Control has Jose meandering in the central Atlantic for days before ultimately going OTS with no threat to CONUS. However, it does spawn what would be Hurricane Lee by day 10 which would have to be watched.

2) The majority of the remaining members of the EPS also show Jose meandering and looping in the central Atlantic. Many go out to sea, but a few threaten the CONUS.

3) The NHC, in their 5pm advisory, highlights both the lack of an obvious steering flow and the complete lack of model consensus in the long-term:

CODE
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

Jose has continued to develop a well-defined eye on satellite
imagery this afternoon, with the eye now established in the center
of a ring of strong convection. 18 UTC Dvorak fixes from TAFB and
SAB came in at T5.5, which suggests 100 knot intensity. However,
given the ongoing improvements in satellite presentation and CIMSS
ADT numbers which have since climbed higher, the initial intensity
for this advisory is set at 105 knots. This makes Jose a Category 3
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. It is the
third major hurricane in the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season
(Harvey, Irma). It also means we have two major hurricanes
simultaneously in the Atlantic basin, which is not too common --
especially in such close proximity. The last time this happened was
in 2010 when Igor and Julia were both major hurricanes on September
15-16, and then Igor and Karl were both major hurricanes briefly on
September 17.

In the near-term, most factors appear aligned for continued
intensification. Outflow remains well-established in all quadrants,
and Jose has thus far not felt negative impacts from the dry air
situated just to its west and northwest. For this reason, we are
taking the intensity up to 120 knots at the 24 hour forecast point.
After that, a gradual decrease in intensity is shown, in line with
most intensity guidance. However, the intensity forecast generally
lies above most of the guidance in deference to the ongoing rapid
intensification trend. Global models do show that some of the dry
air to the west of Jose may wrap into the circulation in about
24-36 hours. That may be a contributing factor to the decrease in
intensity, as well as some increasing shear at the base of an upper
level low in the central Atlantic and perhaps the periphery of
Irma's upper level outflow. The smaller size of Jose may make it a
little more vulnerable to effects of dry air and shear.

The initial motion remains at 285/16kt, and Jose will continue to
be steered by a well established subtropical ridge. It should not
reach the ridge axis until about 36-48 hours, at which point the
ridge begins to erode a bit and Jose may turn a bit more toward the
northwest and eventually the north. The forecast track remains very
similar to the previous official forecast through 48 hours --
roughly between the operational GFS and ECMWF and close to the
multi-model consensus. After that time, the steering flow becomes
weaker and the forward motion should slow down. Models begin to
diverge more significantly at 96hr and especially 120hr. The
forecast at these time ranges lies closer to the multi-model
consensus and the operational ECMWF than models that show a quicker
exit to the east.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 15.5N 52.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 16.0N 54.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 16.6N 57.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 17.3N 59.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 18.4N 61.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 21.9N 65.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 25.5N 67.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 27.3N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Lamers/Carbin

NNNN


Obviously guidance this far out is a just a crapshoot, however, I think the key takeaway from this model cycle is that we should continue to keep an eye on Jose because conditions clearly are ripe to create and sustain tropical systems - and having a major hurricane sticking around in the Atlantic is a bit ominous.


What about for Nova Scotia miss on the euro ensembles ?
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Qdeathstar
post Sep 7 2017, 08:01 PM
Post #45




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hmm, on the euro i saw it stops at 240hr with a high to the northwest and west...

wouldn't this tend to go north as modeled?



This post has been edited by Qdeathstar: Sep 7 2017, 08:04 PM


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Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
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stilko4
post Sep 7 2017, 08:34 PM
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QUOTE(Qdeathstar @ Sep 7 2017, 09:01 PM) *
hmm, on the euro i saw it stops at 240hr with a high to the northwest and west...

wouldn't this tend to go north as modeled?



There's another one after Jose.?.. we should just call this the "but wait, there's more" season.




--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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njwx7
post Sep 7 2017, 08:53 PM
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QUOTE(shane o mac @ Sep 7 2017, 08:33 PM) *
What about for Nova Scotia miss on the euro ensembles ?


There are hits on Nova Scotia as well...but not for for at least 12+ days - wouldn't put much stock in it at this point.
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SnowMan11
post Sep 7 2017, 11:41 PM
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0z GFS has a big high pressure to the north and Jose in the Atlantic coming westward at 234.


--------------------
Anthony
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phillyfan
post Sep 7 2017, 11:45 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Sep 8 2017, 12:41 AM) *
0z GFS has a big high pressure to the north and Jose in the Atlantic coming westward at 234.

Looks to stay out in the Atlantic on this run, not sure for the far north like Nova Scotia though.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
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SnowMan11
post Sep 7 2017, 11:51 PM
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Jose stays well offshore on the 0z run because the high pressure was further east on this run.


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Anthony
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shane o mac
post Sep 8 2017, 01:08 AM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Sep 8 2017, 01:51 AM) *
Jose stays well offshore on the 0z run because the high pressure was further east on this run.

Makes landfall in my backyard , mind you it wouldnt be a tropical storm i dont think by the time it got here .. but still another 10 days out so anything can and will happen .
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SnowMan11
post Sep 8 2017, 07:33 AM
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6z GFS is well OTS but then has Maria on Florida's door step in the long range.


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Anthony
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phillyfan
post Sep 8 2017, 08:15 AM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Sep 8 2017, 08:33 AM) *
6z GFS is well OTS but then has Maria on Florida's door step in the long range.

Yeah that there better not happen.... hour 384 well well into fantasy range.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
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SnowMan11
post Sep 8 2017, 08:42 AM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Sep 8 2017, 09:15 AM) *
Yeah that there better not happen.... hour 384 well well into fantasy range.


Looks like this upcoming storm ( not the strength, just like track )


--------------------
Anthony
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Burr@Work
post Sep 8 2017, 11:37 AM
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Need to update the title for 150MPH.


000
WTNT32 KNHC 081452
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

...JOSE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 57.1W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for St. Thomas and St. John.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
British Virgin Islands

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Thomas and St. John

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 57.1 West. Jose is moving toward
the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during
the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Jose will
pass near or east of the northeastern Leeward Islands on Saturday.

Recent data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
for the next day or so, and gradual weakening is expected after
that.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure indicated by data from the aircraft is
942 mb (27.82 inches).



--------------------
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Burr@Work
post Sep 8 2017, 11:39 AM
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Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla - ouch


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shane o mac
post Sep 8 2017, 12:30 PM
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12 z have it meandering and then hooking on incoming trof then out to sea .. but alot can change and will change .
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stilko4
post Sep 8 2017, 03:24 PM
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QUOTE(shane o mac @ Sep 8 2017, 01:30 PM) *
12 z have it meandering and then hooking on incoming trof then out to sea .. but alot can change and will change .

You sound like you want this to hit you.... I don't understand why. They're not fun


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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stretchct
post Sep 8 2017, 03:33 PM
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JMA has it moving west two previous frames


--------------------
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weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis




First measurable
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Qdeathstar
post Sep 8 2017, 03:41 PM
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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Sep 8 2017, 04:24 PM) *
You sound like you want this to hit you.... I don't understand why. They're not fun


A cat 1 or 2 storm is fun


--------------------
Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
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