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> Winter 2016-17
stuffradio
post Feb 25 2016, 11:49 PM
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Let's start discussing! Meteorological Spring is here next Tuesday, so this years meteorological Winter is basically over.

Let's start with the ENSO. It appears more and more models are in agreement that we are heading to a Nina. I know that in years like 2012, the east coast had a really early Spring, and the west coast was coldish/wet. What do you think will happen?

I'm hoping Vancouver and surrounding lowland cities will actually get accumulating snow for this winter. I would also love for another coast to coast to coast white Christmas like 2008!
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hcr32
post Mar 3 2016, 08:22 PM
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I could really see the next couple winters really deliver for us. Especially if we get into a multi year Nina situation.
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travis3000
post Jun 13 2016, 09:50 AM
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An interesting map relating to the "snowbelt".

I've filled in the average annual snowfall for a variety of key locations across the snow belt zone. Each stat is backed up by 30+ years of Environment Canada data so it's pretty solid.

I've often explained how Alliston (my hometown) historically misses quite a bit of the large snowfalls. Here's a map showing the difference in annual snowfall compared to other key locations, some of them only 25-30KM away.


Attached File  Snowbelt_Map.jpg ( 162.06K ) Number of downloads: 7


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Jun 13 2016, 12:17 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jun 13 2016, 10:50 AM) *
An interesting map relating to the "snowbelt".

I've filled in the average annual snowfall for a variety of key locations across the snow belt zone. Each stat is backed up by 30+ years of Environment Canada data so it's pretty solid.

I've often explained how Alliston (my hometown) historically misses quite a bit of the large snowfalls. Here's a map showing the difference in annual snowfall compared to other key locations, some of them only 25-30KM away.
Attached File  Snowbelt_Map.jpg ( 162.06K ) Number of downloads: 7


It would suck to live in Alliston 😉 very happy with Barrie snowfall amounts, hoping this winter delivers above average to compensate for last year.
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stuffradio
post Jun 13 2016, 12:31 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jun 13 2016, 10:17 AM) *
It would suck to live in Alliston 😉 very happy with Barrie snowfall amounts, hoping this winter delivers above average to compensate for last year.

That's between 4 and 5 feet. It wouldn't suck to live in Alliston. The last 3 years combined I may have only received 3-5cm...
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snowgeek93
post Jun 13 2016, 02:29 PM
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Alliston is closer to us in terms of averages! You guys are more prone to some epic snow events than the GTA though.

If we can get even average snowfall next winter it will essentially be double what I got here during the entire 15-16 season.

I've collected winter snowfall data during La Nina years from various locations around the GTA going back to the 1800's. Good news is the vast majority of them feature average or above average snowfall for the region. Could be an interesting ride as we head into next winter.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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travis3000
post Jun 13 2016, 04:14 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Jun 13 2016, 03:29 PM) *
Alliston is closer to us in terms of averages! You guys are more prone to some epic snow events than the GTA though.

If we can get even average snowfall next winter it will essentially be double what I got here during the entire 15-16 season.

I've collected winter snowfall data during La Nina years from various locations around the GTA going back to the 1800's. Good news is the vast majority of them feature average or above average snowfall for the region. Could be an interesting ride as we head into next winter.



This is true, one thing I've learned is that because we are just on the edge of the snow belt means we miss 80% of the squalls, however when we do get it.... we can get it hard. It happens rarely but its big enough to skew our entire winter accumulations. Case in point, the December 2010 LES outbreak hit Alliston with 100cm of snow in 3 days. This made up 50% of the entire snowfall for the season. Had this event not have occurred, we would have been way below normal.

So yeah you are bang on with us being prone to some epic snow events, it can still be annoying living here and watching these epic bands stall over Barrie, Wasaga Beach to our N and E, and bands coming in over Shelburne and Dufferin County up on the escarpment to our west, while we are sunny here. This is the common setup. But about every 5 years, we get something pretty epic especially by GTA standards.

darn this is making me look forward to tracking snowstorms again!


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Jun 13 2016, 05:48 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Jun 13 2016, 01:31 PM) *
That's between 4 and 5 feet. It wouldn't suck to live in Alliston. The last 3 years combined I may have only received 3-5cm...

I think Travis has answered this...it's not that Alliston doesn't get much snow, it does alright, it's just that it is so close to lots of snow. Most years that I have lived here we have had permanent snow cover in Barrie from mid December through mid March, bar the odd day, but drive 20 km's south of here, nothing on the ground for weeks on end....just brown grass and frozen mud. That would do my head in.
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knorthern_knight
post Jun 13 2016, 11:20 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Jun 13 2016, 03:29 PM) *
Alliston is closer to us in terms of averages! You guys are more prone to some epic snow events than the GTA though.

If we can get even average snowfall next winter it will essentially be double what I got here during the entire 15-16 season.

I've collected winter snowfall data during La Nina years from various locations around the GTA going back to the 1800's. Good news is the vast majority of them feature average or above average snowfall for the region. Could be an interesting ride as we head into next winter.


Did someone mention La Nina? From http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p...3/nino34Mon.gif

Attached File  nino34Mon.gif ( 19.59K ) Number of downloads: 3
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travis3000
post Jun 14 2016, 11:49 AM
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Attached File  Snowbelt_Map_with_squall_zones.jpg ( 113.59K ) Number of downloads: 6


Here's the main squall zones to show the main setups through the winter.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Jun 14 2016, 02:53 PM
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Will be interesting to see the analogues that pop up for this upcoming winter as we move forward. Hopefully La Nina comes on fast but not too strong to overwhelm the pattern.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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knorthern_knight
post Jun 15 2016, 04:21 PM
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The latest ECMWF SST forecasts are out, and show La Nina weakening by winter http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/s...2904,2016093000

July/August/September

Attached File  jas.png ( 39.33K ) Number of downloads: 1


August/September/October

Attached File  aso.png ( 38.44K ) Number of downloads: 0


September/October/November

Attached File  son.png ( 37.39K ) Number of downloads: 0


October/November/December

Attached File  ond.png ( 37.01K ) Number of downloads: 0
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travis3000
post Jun 15 2016, 06:28 PM
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So a weak La Nina, those can be good for snowfall in Southern Ontario smile.gif


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Jun 15 2016, 06:49 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jun 15 2016, 07:28 PM) *
So a weak La Nina, those can be good for snowfall in Southern Ontario smile.gif

Interesting. Except the last time we had a weak La Nina winter was 2011-2012... unsure.gif

If it's something like 2008-2009 though than we could cash in pretty good. Too far out really.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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knorthern_knight
post Jun 16 2016, 06:36 PM
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Jamstec is calling for a "Modoki" La Nina in their notes for June 16 at http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1...orecast.html.en

QUOTE
June 16, 2016
Prediction from 1st June, 2016

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F model predicts that La Niņa-like conditions continue evolving in the tropical Pacific. This La Niņa is more or less of Modoki-type. According to the prediction plumes of Nino3.4 and Modoki indices, La Nina (Modoki) will peak around the end of 2016 and will continue through the spring of 2017.
Indian Ocean forecast:
As predicted earlier, the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has clearly emerged in the observed anomalies of June sea surface temperature. The model predicts that the negative IOD continues evolving and reaches its peak in boreal fall, which may bring a more than normal wet (dry) condition over the eastern (western) side of the Indian Ocean.
The model suggests a weak Ningaloo Niņo event off the west coast of Australia by the end of 2016; this may be partly associated with the development of the La Niņa conditions in the tropical Pacific.
Regional forecast:
In boreal summer, as a seasonally averaged view, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while central U.S., central Australia, and southern South America will experience a colder-than-normal condition.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction, some parts of western India, East Africa, and California in U.S. will experience drier conditions during boreal summer and fall, while most parts of Indonesia and northwestern South America (including Colombia, Ecuador, and western Brazil) will experience a wetter-than-normal condition; this may be mostly due to the evolving La Nina and the negative IOD. Also, because of those climate conditions in Indian and Pacific Oceans, Australia is expected to receive above normal rainfall during austral spring and summer. The active South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) may play a role in this, too. Most part of Japan will experience the warmer-than-normal condition during boreal summer. The Baiu front is expected to be active in June and July. However, the main activity in June will be located south of Honshu. Less precipitation is expected in August.
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Michael1
post Jun 18 2016, 06:53 PM
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The other player in this is the PDO, which didn't remain in it's cold phase consistently. A warm phase PDO might kill the Pacific coast's chance at a good winter.
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snowgeek93
post Jun 19 2016, 10:05 AM
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A warm PDO and La Nina combo could be golden for the great lakes though.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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Lake effect
post Jul 18 2016, 07:09 PM
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July Jamstec looking good for most of us for the months that count in terms of temp...slightly on the dry side for Ontario:

Attached File  temp2.glob.DJF2017.1jul2016.gif ( 67.78K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  tprep.glob.DJF2017.1jul2016.gif ( 89.45K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Jul 18 2016, 07:09 PM
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JJ Snowlover
post Jul 19 2016, 07:26 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jul 18 2016, 08:09 PM) *
July Jamstec looking good for most of us for the months that count in terms of temp...slightly on the dry side for Ontario:

NMME & IMME both predict warmth during the same period, 40 -60% chance of above normal. Will be interesting to see whether we have a strong La Nina, or more weak or neutral phase. I'm leaning to neutral at this time, but it's early.
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snowgeek93
post Jul 19 2016, 09:55 AM
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Regardless of ENSO state, just hoping we fair better next season than the letdown that was last year. Only saw 50% of normal snowfall.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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