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> January 26th - Feb xth LES and clipper thread, Going to be lots of action
Lake effect
post Jan 19 2017, 05:52 PM
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After a pretty rough ride for much of January, it looks like the forecasted change in pattern is pretty much baked in now, and after an interesting looking storm mid-week next week, it looks as though there will be a sustained period of a maybe about a week with a NW flow of air bringing multiple rounds of LES and the odd clipper. The change will be most welcome, and since the lakes will be open for a considerable while longer, and the winds will be very cold, we could see some great falls of snow. Next Thursday and Friday look very promising round these parts, but of course, very early doors, so much could change in terms of areas that will be hit:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png ( 171.57K ) Number of downloads: 2
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Lake effect
post Jan 20 2017, 12:17 PM
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Looking like a run of about ten days at least...LES for all locales who get LES as multiple alignments, plus at least two clippers. Could see many areas getting >50 cm. Will get into specifics for the first round as we get closer.

End of next week:

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Clipper for 10 days time:

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More clipper/LES activity into the extended:

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This post has been edited by Lake effect: Jan 20 2017, 12:23 PM
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Lake effect
post Jan 20 2017, 02:57 PM
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Wide open...bring it on:

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travis3000
post Jan 20 2017, 06:17 PM
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There will be lots of potential for LES, however in certainly won't be 10 days straight but rather intermittent episodes over the period. Winds look to be all over from N to SW , so it will allow some of the fun to be spread around.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Jan 20 2017, 09:19 PM
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Of course.
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Lake effect
post Jan 22 2017, 05:35 PM
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http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...anuary/70000642

I will post my thoughts on Wednesday. We are now down to 13 cms...given that the storm tomorrow is a complete miss, and the one following on is mostly rain, I am getting nervous about our chances of it holding out till the LES arrives. Of course, it will probably be irrelevant this time next week in terms of depth, but its nice to say we had uninterupted snow cover from Dec 4th till the spring thaw.

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travis3000
post Jan 22 2017, 06:41 PM
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In my opinion the LES won't get going until Friday. Surface temps are still pretty warm Thursday from the data Im looking at (above 0C everywhere during the day), and not that cold at night. The best chance of accumulating snows will be Friday into the weekend.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Jan 22 2017, 07:27 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jan 22 2017, 06:41 PM) *
In my opinion the LES won't get going until Friday. Surface temps are still pretty warm Thursday from the data Im looking at (above 0C everywhere during the day), and not that cold at night. The best chance of accumulating snows will be Friday into the weekend.


I'm thinking maybe Thursday night, but yes, the different in lake temp and air temp may not be enough.

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travis3000
post Jan 23 2017, 11:31 AM
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Looks like we will finally be back to some LES by weeks end. Winds look to be NW Thursday night when there should be enough of a difference in water/air temps to get some bands of flurries developing SE of Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. This NW orientation will continue through Friday night. From what I'm seeing the Barrie area seems to be aligned perfectly at this point for the core of the GB activity. Winds start to become more W by Saturday.

The squalls break down Saturday night as a weak low pressure comes in.

Attached File  Jan_26_28th_Squalls.jpg ( 182.71K ) Number of downloads: 3


This post has been edited by travis3000: Jan 23 2017, 11:36 AM


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Jan 25 2017, 10:14 AM
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Looking like this is going to be a bust for Barrie now, with most of the snow off GB from this event hitting areas East or North east of Barrie - Orillia to Bracebridge, and maybe up to Huntsville.

May be a bit of snow round here at the start of the event Thursday evening into night, but temps will be marginal, and the winds not organized. Then the winds become more westerly in nature creating a band that will hit Orillia and points slightly to the south west and more to the north for about 24-36 hours from the early hours of Friday morning into Saturday. The band may move back South West for a while on Saturday giving Barrie a chance at a 5-10cm hit.

Orillia and southern cottage country could get 25-70cms in some locales. Barrie maybe 10-15cm if its lucky. Off Huron the areas that will be worst hit will be between Kincardine and Sauble Beach and 30-50 kms inland.

there is the chance of super squall forming as the NW winds move to WNW for a while, and this could go all the way from Huron, through Barrie area to Peterborough for a while, but not so much chance as earlier events of the season. more LEs to follow over the next couple of weeks, so many more chances at a decent shot of snow.

Winds start out NW tomorrow afternoon and evening. Bit too warm for anything serious though

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Then settle in a very westerly WNW

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Carrying on into Friday evening

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and saturday

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Areas in black may get 5-10cms tomorrow evening, and Saturday late afternoon. Areas in red get hammered from Friday early hours through Saturday lunchtime anything from 25-75cms.

Attached File  26th_28th.jpg ( 256.52K ) Number of downloads: 5


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Jan 25 2017, 11:04 AM
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travis3000
post Jan 25 2017, 11:46 AM
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Great analysis Lake Effect! I'll have my map out soon. Im also of the same thought that the core of the squalls will be north of Barrie.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Jan 25 2017, 12:03 PM
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Here's my map for this lake effect event. You will start to see some bands forming Thursday night and become more organized on Friday. Winds will initially be more NW however soon flattening into a WNW to ESE orientation, and W to E.

The core of the snowfall will be well north of London, not expecting much there at all. Heaviest snows will be from Kincardine/Sauble Beach inland through Owen Sound, Markdale, Flesherton, most of Grey County, as well as Orillia, Gravenhurst, North Simcoe County, Severn Falls, Midland where amounts will be in the 25 to locally 50cm range.

This will not be an epic event, but still a respectable one for some of the hardest hit locations.

As for the city of Barrie, Im calling for amounts in the 8-15cm range over the 60 hour period. There will be some bands which affect the city as they pass over. The core squalls will consolidate north of the city.

Attached File  Squalls_Jan_27_29th_2017.png ( 350.17K ) Number of downloads: 6


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Jan 25 2017, 12:11 PM
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Looks spot on. Hope we manage to get at least one decent burst out of this. Looking a bit sorry out there, down to our last 10cms.

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Jan 25 2017, 12:12 PM
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halldorr
post Jan 25 2017, 12:49 PM
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I think I'm inside the red band on those last images here in Listowel and am definitely hoping for a new coating of snow as we moved into a new home and it's all mud around us right now and bringing the dogs back in can be very messy.
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plowguy
post Jan 25 2017, 12:57 PM
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Thanks Travis and Lake Effect. Both maps show a quiet weekend for me. I might make it to my daughters Volleyball tournament in Milton Sat. That's a rare thing for me in the winter.
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snowbelt
post Jan 25 2017, 01:46 PM
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Great maps and analysis Lake Effect and Travis . I'm on the same thoughts as you guys with a more WNW wind then previously thought bringing the bulk of the squalls north of Barrie to just south of Parry Sound . Huron side looks to be centered in the Kincardine area . Not sure if its going to get cold enough for any real heavy squalls to materialize but who knows ( air temp. -4C / water temp. +6C ) Hoping some of those Huron squalls make it into the North Dufferin area to freshen things up around here .
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travis3000
post Jan 25 2017, 03:46 PM
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The air/water temp difference is what is concerning me to be honest. It's the main reason why Im not forecasting this to be a big event. It may disappoint some, I was hoping to see some highs around minis 8 to minus 10 then we would really get some intense bands. However, the atmospheric temp readings Im seeing don't really point to large epic squalls. Keep some caution with this forecast, the ingredients are certainly there for some bands of snow to develop, but the temperature would be one catalyst for a bust.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Jan 26 2017, 03:48 PM
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EC has snowsquall watches up beginning tonight. Calling for 10-15cm per 12 hours. The overnight low tonight in most areas is only minus 2, the water temp of Georgian Bay and Huron is sitting at around +2C to +5C , so Im a bit iffy on the intensity of these bands.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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jsut
post Jan 26 2017, 04:20 PM
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I'm on vacation at Horseshoe valley, and we got about 3 or 4cm overnight from the little clipper. It's been snowing off and on all day. Lots of wet snow in the trees now.
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Lake effect
post Jan 26 2017, 05:45 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jan 26 2017, 03:48 PM) *
EC has snowsquall watches up beginning tonight. Calling for 10-15cm per 12 hours. The overnight low tonight in most areas is only minus 2, the water temp of Georgian Bay and Huron is sitting at around +2C to +5C , so Im a bit iffy on the intensity of these bands.


And the squalls are going to wiggle all over the place, may settle over Orillia for a while, but not as solid as it looked even a day ago. Ithink the whole Barrie to Bracebridge area will get about 10-15cms from the whole event, with some spots around Orillia maxing out at 25, but not much more. EC are possibly overcooking this now, but better than past efforts when they post the warning 10 mins after a squall has formed!
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