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> Alberta Clipper Eastern Canada: January 31 - February 2, Medium Range Forecasts
Torontoweather
post Jan 26 2017, 03:39 PM
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Well, we may have had one or two in December, but to be honest, this looks like the first true Alberta Clipper of the season! ohmy.gif In fact, it looks like the original energy associated with this system will be impacting either or both southern Alaska/Yukon Saturday and Sunday.



From there, the system will make its way over the northern Rockies on Sunday into the Northwest Territories.



Then, the system will stall and spin for a little while up in the NWT, before it looks like some energy will come ashore further south into BC and eventually make its way over the Rockies, leading to the secondary development to the SE of the NWT low, as we see below with a new LP system over east-central Manitoba.



Eventually the system will make its way into Ontario and Quebec.





In general, this will probably be a fairly typical clipper in terms of track and moisture. Track through central Ontario and into south-central Quebec before eventually tracking and possibly strengthening in the Maritimes and NFLD.



The great things about clippers is that you don't have to be on the northern side to get the best snow. Usually there is light-moderate snow on both the northern and southern side, with in fact the southern side having more moisture sometimes. In general, this system will probably drop 3-10cm on average for the areas affected, but a few locales could get into the 10-15 cm range if it can pull enough moisture, but I wouldn't hold my breath for that.

Some of the models and ensembles have the system a bit further south or north which will change the areas affected and the moisture available for the system. For right now though, the operational GFS seems to be a good middle ground for both track and moisture.

Hopefully this will help whiten up some areas that have gone bare over the past couple of weeks smile.gif

This post has been edited by Torontoweather: Jan 26 2017, 03:40 PM


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McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.

When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;)
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snowgeek93
post Jan 26 2017, 03:43 PM
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Excellent!

Gotta love Alberta Clippers. If we can get enough of them to track through the area and hold onto the cold we can finally start to build some snowpack here again. This one has the potential to finally whiten the ground up again for more than a few hours.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 2
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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travis3000
post Jan 26 2017, 03:50 PM
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I find most of these clippers seem to put down the heaviest snows on the eastern side of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Areas like Parry Sound/Muskoka, Gravenhurst, Orillia, Owen Sound, Sauble Beach, Kincardine, Goderich, Grey County, Huron/Perth Counties, as well as parts of Middlesex County.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 16cm (8cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Torontoweather
post Jan 26 2017, 04:00 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jan 26 2017, 03:50 PM) *
I find most of these clippers seem to put down the heaviest snows on the eastern side of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Areas like Parry Sound/Muskoka, Gravenhurst, Orillia, Owen Sound, Sauble Beach, Kincardine, Goderich, Grey County, Huron/Perth Counties, as well as parts of Middlesex County.


Indeed that can often be the case. This is usually due to the westerly or SW flow associated with the Clipper systems that can act to enhance snowfall in the areas you mentioned above while potentially minimizing snowfall in areas to the east of the Niagara escarpment. Initially in areas like Kincardine and Goderich, you get a flow off the water which enhances precip. Then as you move east of the escarpment, you have drier downsloping winds (even though it's not a huge elevation difference, it can be enough) which can act to reduce precipitation in areas like Alliston and the GTA.

If the track is further south, then that is better for the GTA.


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When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;)
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snowgeek93
post Jan 26 2017, 04:37 PM
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Any snow out of this would be a welcome change! Ideally a quick 2-5cm would be awesome if it were to verify like that.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 2
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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MrMusic
post Jan 26 2017, 05:21 PM
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I'll take anything at this point. Plants are going green and grass is abnormally green for end of January.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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Stl
post Jan 26 2017, 05:57 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Jan 26 2017, 03:39 PM) *
Well, we may have had one or two in December, but to be honest, this looks like the first true Alberta Clipper of the season! ohmy.gif In fact, it looks like the original energy associated with this system will be impacting either or both southern Alaska/Yukon Saturday and Sunday.



From there, the system will make its way over the northern Rockies on Sunday into the Northwest Territories.



Then, the system will stall and spin for a little while up in the NWT, before it looks like some energy will come ashore further south into BC and eventually make its way over the Rockies, leading to the secondary development to the SE of the NWT low, as we see below with a new LP system over east-central Manitoba.



Eventually the system will make its way into Ontario and Quebec.





In general, this will probably be a fairly typical clipper in terms of track and moisture. Track through central Ontario and into south-central Quebec before eventually tracking and possibly strengthening in the Maritimes and NFLD.



The great things about clippers is that you don't have to be on the northern side to get the best snow. Usually there is light-moderate snow on both the northern and southern side, with in fact the southern side having more moisture sometimes. In general, this system will probably drop 3-10cm on average for the areas affected, but a few locales could get into the 10-15 cm range if it can pull enough moisture, but I wouldn't hold my breath for that.

Some of the models and ensembles have the system a bit further south or north which will change the areas affected and the moisture available for the system. For right now though, the operational GFS seems to be a good middle ground for both track and moisture.

Hopefully this will help whiten up some areas that have gone bare over the past couple of weeks smile.gif


I didn't take a look at the temperatures but ratio might be good.

This post has been edited by Stl: Jan 26 2017, 05:58 PM
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Torontoweather
post Jan 26 2017, 06:13 PM
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QUOTE(Stl @ Jan 26 2017, 05:57 PM) *
I didn't take a look at the temperatures but ratio might be good.


Indeed! Could be!

Here's a look at surface, 850 mb and 700 mb temps during the heaviest precip for Montreal:

Surface:


850:


700:


And here's a comparison of the 10:1 snowfall map vs the Kuchera snowfall map for Montreal:

10:1


Kuchera:


Could definitely see some 12:1 or 15:1 ratios with this setup in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. Southern Ontario looks a bit warmer so 10:1 more likely there.

By the way, southern Ontario folk, here is the total snowfall map for your area:



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snowgeek93
post Jan 26 2017, 06:16 PM
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That accumulated snowfall map looks good for areas just north of the GTA. Still a week out though so things could change obviously.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 2
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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MrMusic
post Jan 26 2017, 06:19 PM
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If that snowfall map is accurate, we'll be closing in on 6 straight weeks of bare ground. Let's hope one of the squalls or clippers drops 5+ cm so it looks like winter.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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Stl
post Jan 26 2017, 06:56 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Jan 26 2017, 06:13 PM) *
Indeed! Could be!

Here's a look at surface, 850 mb and 700 mb temps during the heaviest precip for Montreal:

Surface:


850:


700:


And here's a comparison of the 10:1 snowfall map vs the Kuchera snowfall map for Montreal:

10:1


Kuchera:


Could definitely see some 12:1 or 15:1 ratios with this setup in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. Southern Ontario looks a bit warmer so 10:1 more likely there.

By the way, southern Ontario folk, here is the total snowfall map for your area:



Thanks , will be interesting to see what happens.
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 27 2017, 01:43 PM
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12z euro has about 5cm of snow for GTA with this clipper. 12z GEM looked pretty good too about 5-8cm. 12z GFS with close to 5cm for eastern sections with less in western sections of the GTA. Could be a decent clipper for E ON as well.








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snowgeek93
post Jan 27 2017, 02:55 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 27 2017, 01:43 PM) *
12z euro has about 5cm of snow for GTA with this clipper. 12z GEM looked pretty good too about 5-8cm. 12z GFS with close to 5cm for eastern sections with less in western sections of the GTA. Could be a decent clipper for E ON as well.

Awesome! We might finally whiten up the ground around here again smile.gif


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 2
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 27 2017, 05:28 PM
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Good run on the 18z GFS for S ON. Around 5-10cm for the area. Touch less for around the west end of lake ON. We'll see if the trend for higher amounts continues with the next few runs.







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travis3000
post Jan 27 2017, 05:51 PM
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Yes Im liking the 18z GFS , shows a solid 6-8cm here whereas previous models had us around 2-5cm. It seems the low is more south compared to a couple days ago which can help us east of the escarpment with accumulations.



--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 16cm (8cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Jan 27 2017, 07:15 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 27 2017, 05:28 PM) *
Good run on the 18z GFS for S ON. Around 5-10cm for the area. Touch less for around the west end of lake ON. We'll see if the trend for higher amounts continues with the next few runs.


Every run seems to get better, lets hope the trend continues.
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markj138
post Jan 27 2017, 07:30 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 27 2017, 07:15 PM) *
Every run seems to get better, lets hope the trend continues.


Hopefully we get the one two punch with this storm & then the other bigger storm around Feb 4-6,its way out there but the signal is strong for a storm somewhere in that time frame.
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Lake effect
post Jan 27 2017, 07:48 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 27 2017, 07:30 PM) *
Hopefully we get the one two punch with this storm & then the other bigger storm around Feb 4-6,its way out there but the signal is strong for a storm somewhere in that time frame.


And a little bit of LES seasoning between courses.
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 28 2017, 10:16 AM
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00z and 06z GFS both looked pretty good for accumulations around S ON. Definitely been a shift south from earlier runs. Center of the low tracks right over the GTA on the GFS. CMC actually has the low tracking more to the south with lesser accumulations.

A bit less snow for E ON with the latest trends.

Could get some snow through nova scotia as well as the system progresses.





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snowgeek93
post Jan 28 2017, 11:57 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 28 2017, 10:16 AM) *
00z and 06z GFS both looked pretty good for accumulations around S ON. Definitely been a shift south from earlier runs. Center of the low tracks right over the GTA on the GFS. CMC actually has the low tracking more to the south with lesser accumulations.

A bit less snow for E ON with the latest trends.

Could get some snow through nova scotia as well as the system progresses.

Hopefully it doesn't push too far south that we lose out on accumulation. Finally a clipper to follow at least.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 2
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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