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> Alberta Clipper Eastern Canada: January 31 - February 2, Medium Range Forecasts
snowgeek93
post Jan 28 2017, 02:59 PM
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12z GFS still looking good for the area. CMC continues to take it a bit too far south though.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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Ottawa blizzard
post Jan 28 2017, 06:19 PM
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18z looks further south. I'm thinking the GTA could maybe see 2-5 cm.

The February 5th storm is also starting to look like a miss to the south.
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markj138
post Jan 28 2017, 06:29 PM
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QUOTE(Ottawa blizzard @ Jan 28 2017, 06:19 PM) *
18z looks further south. I'm thinking the GTA could maybe see 2-5 cm.

The February 5th storm is also starting to look like a miss to the south.


The past couple of days the whole pattern seems to be shifting South,not only our clipper but everything after that,maybe this upcoming period is going to be a slightly cooler version of December which may mean the storm track is also a little further SE.
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snowgeek93
post Jan 28 2017, 06:34 PM
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A bit concerning to see but if we could pull even 5cm out of this clipper that would lay down some solid snow cover again which would coincide nicely with the cold snap. Lets hope we can even get that much unsure.gif


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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markj138
post Jan 28 2017, 06:39 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Jan 28 2017, 06:34 PM) *
A bit concerning to see but if we could pull even 5cm out of this clipper that would lay down some solid snow cover again which would coincide nicely with the cold snap. Lets hope we can even get that much unsure.gif


Well today was great,the much anticipated pattern change is here & we already had snow in the air all day putting down a coating,you would think we are off to a much more wintery pattern kind of how that 2 week stretch in December started,i guess we will know soon enough if we are going from warm wet to cold dry or not.

This post has been edited by markj138: Jan 28 2017, 06:40 PM
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snowgeek93
post Jan 28 2017, 07:12 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 28 2017, 06:39 PM) *
Well today was great,the much anticipated pattern change is here & we already had snow in the air all day putting down a coating,you would think we are off to a much more wintery pattern kind of how that 2 week stretch in December started,i guess we will know soon enough if we are going from warm wet to cold dry or not.

True. We already have 1cm down from today's disturbance and the ground is almost solidly white again. This clipper will only help with that and the more the better!


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 28 2017, 07:12 PM
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I still think the system around the 5th has good potential. Models are going to be all over the place for a while so no sense to get too invested in each run. Even the ensemble means are changing a lot where the low tracks.

Also I don't mind being on the north side of the clipper at this time. This type of track usually has a slight shift north as the models get closer to the event IMO.



This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Jan 28 2017, 07:17 PM
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markj138
post Jan 28 2017, 07:20 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 28 2017, 07:12 PM) *
I still think the system around the 5th has good potential. Models are going to be all over the place for a while so no sense to get too invested in each run. Even the ensemble means are changing a lot where the low tracks.

Also I don't mind being on the north side of the clipper at this time. This type of track usually has a slight shift north as the models get closer to the event IMO.


True about the clipper it probably will come back North some.
I also see the 18Z GEFS have a bunch of good hits with that Feb 5 storm,we just wasted a lot of winter that we will never get back so i am getting a bit antsy now laugh.gif
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snowgeek93
post Jan 28 2017, 07:24 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 28 2017, 07:12 PM) *
Also I don't mind being on the north side of the clipper at this time. This type of track usually has a slight shift north as the models get closer to the event IMO.

If that's the case than it would work out great. These southern shifts on the models are still a bit concerning though.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 28 2017, 07:25 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 28 2017, 07:20 PM) *
True about the clipper it probably will come back North some.
I also see the 18Z GEFS have a bunch of good hits with that Feb 5 storm,we just wasted a lot of winter that we will never get back so i am getting a bit antsy now laugh.gif


I know, a rough january for snow for sure around the lower lakes. I wouldn't mind a few good storms in february as well. All we can do is watch. ph34r.gif

This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Jan 28 2017, 07:26 PM
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 28 2017, 07:30 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Jan 28 2017, 07:24 PM) *
If that's the case than it would work out great. These southern shifts on the models are still a bit concerning though.


Yeah, we'll know more in the next few days for both systems.

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Torontoweather
post Jan 29 2017, 10:59 AM
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Here's a look at the latest NAM and GFS total snowfall:

GFS, 10:1:



GFS, Kuchera:


NAM, 10:1:



NAM, Kuchera:



It looks like both models are hinting at Kuchera snow ratios in the range of 12 to 18 : 1, which seems about right to me, though I would be hesitant to go much above 15:1, even in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec.

Starting to look like a widespread 5-10 cm event across southern Ontario! smile.gif
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plowguy
post Jan 29 2017, 01:16 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Jan 29 2017, 10:59 AM) *
Here's a look at the latest NAM and GFS total snowfall:

GFS, 10:1:



GFS, Kuchera:


NAM, 10:1:



NAM, Kuchera:



It looks like both models are hinting at Kuchera snow ratios in the range of 12 to 18 : 1, which seems about right to me, though I would be hesitant to go much above 15:1, even in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec.

Starting to look like a widespread 5-10 cm event across southern Ontario! smile.gif


Do you think the ratios will be that high through my area? Temp looks to rising to close to freezing?
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snowgeek93
post Jan 29 2017, 01:31 PM
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TWN bumped me up to 5cm for this clipper. Lets hope those models are right and we can pull 5-10cm out of this.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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Torontoweather
post Jan 29 2017, 04:27 PM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Jan 29 2017, 01:16 PM) *
Do you think the ratios will be that high through my area? Temp looks to rising to close to freezing?


Ratios will probably be on the order of 12:1 is my guess.
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snowgeek93
post Jan 29 2017, 06:05 PM
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5cm will be enough to cover everything up here again and hold it for the rest of the cold snap. Hopefully we get at least that amount, though a bit more is always welcome smile.gif


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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travis3000
post Jan 29 2017, 06:15 PM
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Looks like a solid 4-6cm here and that's fine with me. At the very least it will cover up the green/grass I've been staring at for the past two weeks.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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Ottawa blizzard
post Jan 30 2017, 06:30 AM
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Looks like the clipper has slipped south in latest guidance. I'm thinking 2-5 cm for the GTA at most.
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MrMusic
post Jan 30 2017, 08:48 AM
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Beggars can't be choosers. I'd take 2-3cm. Would double my snowfall for January, and not melt within minutes this time.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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snowgeek93
post Jan 30 2017, 09:17 AM
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QUOTE(Ottawa blizzard @ Jan 30 2017, 06:30 AM) *
Looks like the clipper has slipped south in latest guidance. I'm thinking 2-5 cm for the GTA at most.

Hope it's closer to 5cm around here.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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