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#21
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,933 Joined: 7-September 09 From: Thornhill, Ontario Member No.: 19,154 ![]() |
12z GFS still looking good for the area. CMC continues to take it a bit too far south though.
-------------------- Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 151.5cm
First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm) Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm) Days with Snow on Ground: 85 Days with Snow Cover: 62 November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm) December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm) January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm) February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm) March 2018: 5.8cm (19.3cm) April 2018: 30.6cm (7.5cm) Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm |
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#22
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 911 Joined: 7-December 08 From: Toronto/Ottawa Member No.: 16,378 ![]() |
18z looks further south. I'm thinking the GTA could maybe see 2-5 cm.
The February 5th storm is also starting to look like a miss to the south. |
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#23
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,106 Joined: 19-December 09 From: Agincourt,Scarborough Member No.: 20,461 ![]() |
18z looks further south. I'm thinking the GTA could maybe see 2-5 cm. The February 5th storm is also starting to look like a miss to the south. The past couple of days the whole pattern seems to be shifting South,not only our clipper but everything after that,maybe this upcoming period is going to be a slightly cooler version of December which may mean the storm track is also a little further SE. |
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#24
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,933 Joined: 7-September 09 From: Thornhill, Ontario Member No.: 19,154 ![]() |
A bit concerning to see but if we could pull even 5cm out of this clipper that would lay down some solid snow cover again which would coincide nicely with the cold snap. Lets hope we can even get that much
![]() -------------------- Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 151.5cm
First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm) Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm) Days with Snow on Ground: 85 Days with Snow Cover: 62 November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm) December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm) January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm) February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm) March 2018: 5.8cm (19.3cm) April 2018: 30.6cm (7.5cm) Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm |
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#25
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,106 Joined: 19-December 09 From: Agincourt,Scarborough Member No.: 20,461 ![]() |
A bit concerning to see but if we could pull even 5cm out of this clipper that would lay down some solid snow cover again which would coincide nicely with the cold snap. Lets hope we can even get that much ![]() Well today was great,the much anticipated pattern change is here & we already had snow in the air all day putting down a coating,you would think we are off to a much more wintery pattern kind of how that 2 week stretch in December started,i guess we will know soon enough if we are going from warm wet to cold dry or not. This post has been edited by markj138: Jan 28 2017, 06:40 PM |
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#26
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,933 Joined: 7-September 09 From: Thornhill, Ontario Member No.: 19,154 ![]() |
Well today was great,the much anticipated pattern change is here & we already had snow in the air all day putting down a coating,you would think we are off to a much more wintery pattern kind of how that 2 week stretch in December started,i guess we will know soon enough if we are going from warm wet to cold dry or not. True. We already have 1cm down from today's disturbance and the ground is almost solidly white again. This clipper will only help with that and the more the better! -------------------- Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 151.5cm
First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm) Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm) Days with Snow on Ground: 85 Days with Snow Cover: 62 November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm) December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm) January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm) February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm) March 2018: 5.8cm (19.3cm) April 2018: 30.6cm (7.5cm) Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm |
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#27
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 914 Joined: 16-January 13 Member No.: 28,061 ![]() |
I still think the system around the 5th has good potential. Models are going to be all over the place for a while so no sense to get too invested in each run. Even the ensemble means are changing a lot where the low tracks.
Also I don't mind being on the north side of the clipper at this time. This type of track usually has a slight shift north as the models get closer to the event IMO. This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Jan 28 2017, 07:17 PM |
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#28
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,106 Joined: 19-December 09 From: Agincourt,Scarborough Member No.: 20,461 ![]() |
I still think the system around the 5th has good potential. Models are going to be all over the place for a while so no sense to get too invested in each run. Even the ensemble means are changing a lot where the low tracks. Also I don't mind being on the north side of the clipper at this time. This type of track usually has a slight shift north as the models get closer to the event IMO. True about the clipper it probably will come back North some. I also see the 18Z GEFS have a bunch of good hits with that Feb 5 storm,we just wasted a lot of winter that we will never get back so i am getting a bit antsy now ![]() |
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#29
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,933 Joined: 7-September 09 From: Thornhill, Ontario Member No.: 19,154 ![]() |
Also I don't mind being on the north side of the clipper at this time. This type of track usually has a slight shift north as the models get closer to the event IMO. If that's the case than it would work out great. These southern shifts on the models are still a bit concerning though. -------------------- Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 151.5cm
First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm) Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm) Days with Snow on Ground: 85 Days with Snow Cover: 62 November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm) December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm) January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm) February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm) March 2018: 5.8cm (19.3cm) April 2018: 30.6cm (7.5cm) Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm |
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#30
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 914 Joined: 16-January 13 Member No.: 28,061 ![]() |
True about the clipper it probably will come back North some. I also see the 18Z GEFS have a bunch of good hits with that Feb 5 storm,we just wasted a lot of winter that we will never get back so i am getting a bit antsy now ![]() I know, a rough january for snow for sure around the lower lakes. I wouldn't mind a few good storms in february as well. All we can do is watch. ![]() This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Jan 28 2017, 07:26 PM |
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#31
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 914 Joined: 16-January 13 Member No.: 28,061 ![]() |
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#32
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 10,169 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 ![]() |
Here's a look at the latest NAM and GFS total snowfall:
GFS, 10:1: ![]() GFS, Kuchera: ![]() NAM, 10:1: ![]() NAM, Kuchera: ![]() It looks like both models are hinting at Kuchera snow ratios in the range of 12 to 18 : 1, which seems about right to me, though I would be hesitant to go much above 15:1, even in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. Starting to look like a widespread 5-10 cm event across southern Ontario! ![]() -------------------- McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.
When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;) |
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#33
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 758 Joined: 17-February 09 From: brantford Member No.: 17,615 ![]() |
Here's a look at the latest NAM and GFS total snowfall: GFS, 10:1: ![]() GFS, Kuchera: ![]() NAM, 10:1: ![]() NAM, Kuchera: ![]() It looks like both models are hinting at Kuchera snow ratios in the range of 12 to 18 : 1, which seems about right to me, though I would be hesitant to go much above 15:1, even in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. Starting to look like a widespread 5-10 cm event across southern Ontario! ![]() Do you think the ratios will be that high through my area? Temp looks to rising to close to freezing? |
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#34
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,933 Joined: 7-September 09 From: Thornhill, Ontario Member No.: 19,154 ![]() |
TWN bumped me up to 5cm for this clipper. Lets hope those models are right and we can pull 5-10cm out of this.
-------------------- Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 151.5cm
First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm) Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm) Days with Snow on Ground: 85 Days with Snow Cover: 62 November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm) December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm) January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm) February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm) March 2018: 5.8cm (19.3cm) April 2018: 30.6cm (7.5cm) Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm |
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#35
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 10,169 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 ![]() |
Do you think the ratios will be that high through my area? Temp looks to rising to close to freezing? Ratios will probably be on the order of 12:1 is my guess. -------------------- McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.
When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;) |
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#36
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,933 Joined: 7-September 09 From: Thornhill, Ontario Member No.: 19,154 ![]() |
5cm will be enough to cover everything up here again and hold it for the rest of the cold snap. Hopefully we get at least that amount, though a bit more is always welcome
![]() -------------------- Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 151.5cm
First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm) Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm) Days with Snow on Ground: 85 Days with Snow Cover: 62 November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm) December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm) January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm) February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm) March 2018: 5.8cm (19.3cm) April 2018: 30.6cm (7.5cm) Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm |
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#37
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,841 Joined: 21-January 08 From: Alliston,Ontario Member No.: 12,822 ![]() |
Looks like a solid 4-6cm here and that's fine with me. At the very least it will cover up the green/grass I've been staring at for the past two weeks.
-------------------- Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( ) October: 2cm (0cm) November: 30cm (13cm) December: 70.5cm (52cm) January: 49.5cm (27cm) February: 39cm (30cm) March: 20cm (18cm) April: 31cm (17cm) SEASON TOTAL... Barrie: 242cm Alliston: 157cm -- Alliston history 2016/2017: 148cm 2015/2016 Total: 121cm 2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm 2013/2014 Total: 200cm 2012/2013: 140cm 2011/2012: 103cm 2010/2011: 213.5cm 2009/2010: 97cm 2008/2009: 232cm 2007/2008: 291cm 2006/2007: 84.8cm LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm Travis |
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#38
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 911 Joined: 7-December 08 From: Toronto/Ottawa Member No.: 16,378 ![]() |
Looks like the clipper has slipped south in latest guidance. I'm thinking 2-5 cm for the GTA at most.
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#39
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 4,531 Joined: 6-February 13 Member No.: 28,218 ![]() |
Beggars can't be choosers. I'd take 2-3cm. Would double my snowfall for January, and not melt within minutes this time.
-------------------- Winter 2017-2018
December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!! 13: 5cm 14: 12cm 22: 9cm 23: 9cm 24: 16cm JAN 2018 1: 5cm 8: 10cm 15: 6cm 29: 16cm FEB 2018 8: 13cm 10-11: 18cm Winter 2016-2017 Dec 2016: 30cm Jan 2017: 5cm Feb 2017: 7cm March 2017: 35cm!! Finally! Days with snow on the ground: 25 |
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#40
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,933 Joined: 7-September 09 From: Thornhill, Ontario Member No.: 19,154 ![]() |
Looks like the clipper has slipped south in latest guidance. I'm thinking 2-5 cm for the GTA at most. Hope it's closer to 5cm around here. -------------------- Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 151.5cm
First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm) Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm) Days with Snow on Ground: 85 Days with Snow Cover: 62 November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm) December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm) January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm) February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm) March 2018: 5.8cm (19.3cm) April 2018: 30.6cm (7.5cm) Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 21st April 2018 - 04:06 PM |