Alberta Clipper Eastern Canada: January 31 - February 2, Medium Range Forecasts Options

[snowgeek93]

12z GFS still looking good for the area. CMC continues to take it a bit too far south though.

[Ottawa blizzard]

18z looks further south. I'm thinking the GTA could maybe see 2-5 cm.

The February 5th storm is also starting to look like a miss to the south.

[markj138]

18z looks further south. I'm thinking the GTA could maybe see 2-5 cm.

The February 5th storm is also starting to look like a miss to the south.

The past couple of days the whole pattern seems to be shifting South,not only our clipper but everything after that,maybe this upcoming period is going to be a slightly cooler version of December which may mean the storm track is also a little further SE.

[snowgeek93]

A bit concerning to see but if we could pull even 5cm out of this clipper that would lay down some solid snow cover again which would coincide nicely with the cold snap. Lets hope we can even get that much

[markj138]

A bit concerning to see but if we could pull even 5cm out of this clipper that would lay down some solid snow cover again which would coincide nicely with the cold snap. Lets hope we can even get that much

Well today was great,the much anticipated pattern change is here & we already had snow in the air all day putting down a coating,you would think we are off to a much more wintery pattern kind of how that 2 week stretch in December started,i guess we will know soon enough if we are going from warm wet to cold dry or not.

This post has been edited by markj138: Jan 28 2017, 06:40 PM

[snowgeek93]

Well today was great,the much anticipated pattern change is here & we already had snow in the air all day putting down a coating,you would think we are off to a much more wintery pattern kind of how that 2 week stretch in December started,i guess we will know soon enough if we are going from warm wet to cold dry or not.

True. We already have 1cm down from today's disturbance and the ground is almost solidly white again. This clipper will only help with that and the more the better!

[SNOWBOB11]

I still think the system around the 5th has good potential. Models are going to be all over the place for a while so no sense to get too invested in each run. Even the ensemble means are changing a lot where the low tracks.

Also I don't mind being on the north side of the clipper at this time. This type of track usually has a slight shift north as the models get closer to the event IMO.



This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Jan 28 2017, 07:17 PM

[markj138]

I still think the system around the 5th has good potential. Models are going to be all over the place for a while so no sense to get too invested in each run. Even the ensemble means are changing a lot where the low tracks.

Also I don't mind being on the north side of the clipper at this time. This type of track usually has a slight shift north as the models get closer to the event IMO.

True about the clipper it probably will come back North some.
I also see the 18Z GEFS have a bunch of good hits with that Feb 5 storm,we just wasted a lot of winter that we will never get back so i am getting a bit antsy now

[snowgeek93]

Also I don't mind being on the north side of the clipper at this time. This type of track usually has a slight shift north as the models get closer to the event IMO.

If that's the case than it would work out great. These southern shifts on the models are still a bit concerning though.

[SNOWBOB11]

True about the clipper it probably will come back North some.
I also see the 18Z GEFS have a bunch of good hits with that Feb 5 storm,we just wasted a lot of winter that we will never get back so i am getting a bit antsy now

I know, a rough january for snow for sure around the lower lakes. I wouldn't mind a few good storms in february as well. All we can do is watch.

This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Jan 28 2017, 07:26 PM

[SNOWBOB11]

If that's the case than it would work out great. These southern shifts on the models are still a bit concerning though.

Yeah, we'll know more in the next few days for both systems.

[Torontoweather]

Here's a look at the latest NAM and GFS total snowfall:

GFS, 10:1:



GFS, Kuchera:


NAM, 10:1:



NAM, Kuchera:



It looks like both models are hinting at Kuchera snow ratios in the range of 12 to 18 : 1, which seems about right to me, though I would be hesitant to go much above 15:1, even in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec.

Starting to look like a widespread 5-10 cm event across southern Ontario!

[plowguy]

Here's a look at the latest NAM and GFS total snowfall:

GFS, 10:1:



GFS, Kuchera:


NAM, 10:1:



NAM, Kuchera:



It looks like both models are hinting at Kuchera snow ratios in the range of 12 to 18 : 1, which seems about right to me, though I would be hesitant to go much above 15:1, even in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec.

Starting to look like a widespread 5-10 cm event across southern Ontario!

Do you think the ratios will be that high through my area? Temp looks to rising to close to freezing?

[snowgeek93]

TWN bumped me up to 5cm for this clipper. Lets hope those models are right and we can pull 5-10cm out of this.

[Torontoweather]

Do you think the ratios will be that high through my area? Temp looks to rising to close to freezing?

Ratios will probably be on the order of 12:1 is my guess.

[snowgeek93]

5cm will be enough to cover everything up here again and hold it for the rest of the cold snap. Hopefully we get at least that amount, though a bit more is always welcome

[travis3000]

Looks like a solid 4-6cm here and that's fine with me. At the very least it will cover up the green/grass I've been staring at for the past two weeks.

[Ottawa blizzard]

Looks like the clipper has slipped south in latest guidance. I'm thinking 2-5 cm for the GTA at most.

[MrMusic]

Beggars can't be choosers. I'd take 2-3cm. Would double my snowfall for January, and not melt within minutes this time.

[snowgeek93]

Looks like the clipper has slipped south in latest guidance. I'm thinking 2-5 cm for the GTA at most.

Hope it's closer to 5cm around here.