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> Alberta Clipper Eastern Canada: January 31 - February 2, Medium Range Forecasts
SNOWBOB11
post Jan 30 2017, 10:06 AM
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Kind of looks like 2 waves of precip from this clipper. The first looks like it tracks further south through SW ON, the next wave is a bit more north and that's when it looks like the GTA will get the snow. It does look like a bit less around the GTA than earlier modeled but still could be in the 3-8cm range IMO. SW ON could be in the 5-12cm range. Looks like lesser amounts now through E ON.



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MrMusic
post Jan 30 2017, 10:18 AM
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EC has Hamilton down for 2-4cm at the moment.

I'm seeing signs of an ENE wind flow for much of tomorrow. Wonder if there's a slim chance at some lake enhanced snow?


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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plowguy
post Jan 30 2017, 10:18 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 30 2017, 10:06 AM) *
Kind of looks like 2 waves of precip from this clipper. The first looks like it tracks further south through SW ON, the next wave is a bit more north and that's when it looks like the GTA will get the snow. It does look like a bit less around the GTA than earlier modeled but still could be in the 3-8cm range IMO. SW ON could be in the 5-12cm range. Looks like lesser amounts now through E ON.

Still not bad numbers for a clipper.
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 30 2017, 10:33 AM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Jan 30 2017, 10:18 AM) *
Still not bad numbers for a clipper.


Yeah, looks like you could be in the slightly higher amounts being your more SW than me. Looks like you'll be plow/salting with this one.
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plowguy
post Jan 30 2017, 10:36 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 30 2017, 10:33 AM) *
Yeah, looks like you could be in the slightly higher amounts being your more SW than me. Looks like you'll be plow/salting with this one.


The TWN and EC have 2 different takes on this one.

EC 2 cms tonight 2cms tom through the day and more at night. This is a salt scenario for tonight and tom. maybe plow Tues night. TWN says 1 cm total till 6pm tom then snow Tues evening and overnight. If I could pick I would take TWN tongue.gif
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snowgeek93
post Jan 30 2017, 10:46 AM
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Getting kind of anxious about these south shifts. Hopefully we can get around 5cm out of this clipper around here. It would finally lay down some snow cover and stick around for a bit.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 2
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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travis3000
post Jan 30 2017, 11:55 AM
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Here's the 12z GFS total snowfall from the clipper. Too far south to impact my area, shows about 1cm here if that.

Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_11.png ( 134.7K ) Number of downloads: 10


This post has been edited by travis3000: Jan 30 2017, 11:56 AM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 16cm (8cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Jan 30 2017, 01:03 PM
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Still holding out hope for around 5cm from this one.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 2
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 30 2017, 04:42 PM
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18z NAM lowered totals a bit for this clipper. Not really the best of trends to be honest. Still looks good for SW ON.
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snowgeek93
post Jan 30 2017, 06:26 PM
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Not really looking like much of anything here anymore.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 2
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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plowguy
post Jan 30 2017, 07:58 PM
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Its a clipper...win some lose some sad.gif
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Ottawa blizzard
post Jan 30 2017, 08:20 PM
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I think we could still get 2-5 cm.
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 30 2017, 08:49 PM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Jan 30 2017, 07:58 PM) *
Its a clipper...win some lose some sad.gif

Still could be 4-7cm for you down that way I feel. I think 3-5cm for the GTA



This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Jan 30 2017, 08:53 PM
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plowguy
post Jan 30 2017, 09:32 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 30 2017, 08:49 PM) *
Still could be 4-7cm for you down that way I feel. I think 3-5cm for the GTA

Maybe. But through the day and warm temps..grass only. I am thinking just a salt or two for us.
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MrMusic
post Jan 31 2017, 09:36 AM
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nice little light snow happening out there today. An east wind too. First time this winter we've seen an east wind, with some snow falling.
Probably half a cm down so far. EC only calling for 2-4, but that would be enough to cover the ground up.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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snowgeek93
post Jan 31 2017, 09:57 AM
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Looks like the afternoon/evening will be when most of this falls. Just a very light snowfall this morning adding a light coating to the grass.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 2
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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plowguy
post Jan 31 2017, 10:23 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 30 2017, 08:49 PM) *
Still could be 4-7cm for you down that way I feel. I think 3-5cm for the GTA

Got 3 cms from the first wave. Salt and temp should have it gone before the 2nd rolls in.
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 31 2017, 10:45 AM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Jan 31 2017, 10:23 AM) *
Got 3 cms from the first wave. Salt and temp should have it gone before the 2nd rolls in.


Sounds good. Maybe the 4-7cm prediction won't be too bad by the time it's all over.
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plowguy
post Jan 31 2017, 10:59 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 31 2017, 10:45 AM) *
Sounds good. Maybe the 4-7cm prediction won't be too bad by the time it's all over.

For sure. The 3 cms was more than I thought we would get. Maybe round 2 will do the same??? It is melting on roofs and paved surfaces, the sun is trying to make an appearance.
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Lake effect
post Jan 31 2017, 12:10 PM
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Think this will have some decent Lake enhancement/LES on the backend of the second wave tomorrow, this could significantly impact totals in affected areas giving a 1-2 hour burst with 5-10cms. The NAM picks this up nicely:

Attached File  nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_24.png ( 162.2K ) Number of downloads: 3


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Jan 31 2017, 12:12 PM
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