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> LES Potential Feb 1st-Feb 4th, Looks to be a WNW oriented event
travis3000
post Jan 30 2017, 12:04 PM
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Im liking the Thursday Feb 2nd to Saturday Feb 4th timeframe for some pretty intense squalls. There looks to be ample cold air in place which will allow for some fairly intense bands to develop.

We've seen some bands of heavy flurries develop across most of SW, S, C Ontario Wednesday Feb 1st which has put down 2-10cm in many locations. These bands of flurries will consolidate into more classic snowsqualls as we head towards Thursday and into Friday.

Right now its looking like a WNW to ESE event, at times veering into a more NW flow.

Areas to be on alert for 30cm+

-Midland
-Orillia
-Bracebridge
-Gravenhurst
-Muskoka
-North Simcoe County
-Owen Sound
-Meaford
-Kincardine
-Sauble Beach
-Bruce Peninsula
-Grey County
-Flesherton


Attached File  Squalls_Feb_2nd_4th.jpg ( 234.6K ) Number of downloads: 8


This post has been edited by travis3000: Feb 1 2017, 09:38 PM


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 6cm
TOTAL: 132cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Jan 30 2017, 12:45 PM
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Great map Travis! You're going pretty aggressive with those amounts further south, even in the GTA where I usually don't hold out hope for much.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 136.8cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 136.8cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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plowguy
post Jan 30 2017, 01:25 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Jan 30 2017, 12:45 PM) *
Great map Travis! You're going pretty aggressive with those amounts further south, even in the GTA where I usually don't hold out hope for much.

Yes you don't often see the GTA, London and Kitchener in the same zone when it comes to lake efect!
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travis3000
post Jan 30 2017, 03:56 PM
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For many of these places, it will simply be a trace to a few CM's of snow. However as the cold front rushes in, you'll see far reaching bands of snow off GB and Lake Huron extend into the GTA. The core accumulations however will be closer to the lakes as you see on the map.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 6cm
TOTAL: 132cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Jan 31 2017, 12:36 PM
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I agree with your map mostly Travis, but I think northern Barrie may actually get a bit more and be in the light brown. Here is my prediction:

The NAM isn't picking this up, but no one picked up Sunday's squalls, so that doesn't mean anything, I think there will be some decent bands forming tomorrow evening in NW-SE alignment and giving a decent period of snow for several hours.

Attached File  wed_evening.gif ( 31.59K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  thurs_1am.gif ( 31.23K ) Number of downloads: 1


Thursday morning then shift more west to East, and then shift back and forth between this and WNW for pretty much the rest of the event, which will end around Saturday lunchtime:

Attached File  thurs_morning.gif ( 31.17K ) Number of downloads: 3


Attached File  Friday_morning.gif ( 30.65K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  friday_night.gif ( 31.34K ) Number of downloads: 2


Areas in red Wednesday overnight might get 5-20cms, then areas in black from Thursday morning through Saturday may get anything from 25-60cms, and even more in some locales that get really nobbled. I have put Barrie on the edge of this as the winds are often a WNW alignment running along the southern shore of Georgian Bay, and this can produce some nice squalls that hit northern Barrie along the green line, they also wonder up towards Orillia.

Attached File  Lakes.jpg ( 261.03K ) Number of downloads: 4


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Jan 31 2017, 12:37 PM
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plowguy
post Jan 31 2017, 01:19 PM
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Thanks to both of you for taking the time to do the maps. In this case I'm pulling for Travis's map! I'm in for something...up to 8 cms laugh.gif
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Feb 1 2017, 08:09 AM
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Let's see cottage country Barrie get a good dumping off this
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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2017, 08:15 AM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Jan 31 2017, 01:19 PM) *
Thanks to both of you for taking the time to do the maps. In this case I'm pulling for Travis's map! I'm in for something...up to 8 cms laugh.gif


Travis is in danger of being lumped in with myweather with those kinds of predictions wink.gif would be good for you guys to get some as its been pretty lame down there for you.
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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2017, 08:16 AM
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QUOTE(GreatWhiteTornado @ Feb 1 2017, 08:09 AM) *
Let's see cottage country Barrie get a good dumping off this


Cottage country will get a decent wallop from this. I suspect Barrie will have some tonight, and again on friday night, but nothing epic.
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plowguy
post Feb 1 2017, 08:23 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Feb 1 2017, 08:15 AM) *
Travis is in danger of being lumped in with myweather with those kinds of predictions wink.gif would be good for you guys to get some as its been pretty lame down there for you.

It has been a surprisingly good winter for business. Just not very pretty! December was our best ever and January had lots of ice and flurries which good for business as well. Brantford generally doesn't get much from these winds. A flurry here and there.
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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2017, 08:53 AM
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Some early bands forming now, very intense off Huron, may stretch across to Barrie. The GB one may be messy until later when the winds settle down. The GB band will hit between North Barrie and Orillia on and off if it gets organised, for most of the day, then shift into the greater Barrie area for several hours overnight, giving as much as 20cms, before heading off to cottage country tomorrow.

Attached File  Screenshot_20170201_084952.jpg ( 291.24K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Feb 1 2017, 09:00 AM
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snowbelt
post Feb 1 2017, 09:38 AM
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Pretty intense squall here this morning , more to come !

Attached File  IMG_1148.JPG ( 1.27MB ) Number of downloads: 0



Attached File  IMG_1147.JPG ( 1006.66K ) Number of downloads: 0

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snowbelt
post Feb 1 2017, 09:41 AM
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Oops , sorry about the pictures guys . You get the idea though !
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travis3000
post Feb 1 2017, 09:42 AM
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We had a burst of snow in Alliston for about 10 minutes. Put down about half a CM. It looks very white out there now with the inch we received from the clipper smile.gif


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 6cm
TOTAL: 132cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2017, 09:51 AM
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getting pounded in Barrie right now. Had about 4-5cms overnight as well.

None of the models are showing anything significant for later, but the winds look really good for some good activity this evening and overnight for here.
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travis3000
post Feb 1 2017, 09:53 AM
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Yep the bands are already starting and will move around a bit today but Barrie does stand a good chance at some accumulations tonight. Good luck Lake Effect, not like you guys need it up there tongue.gif


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 6cm
TOTAL: 132cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2017, 09:56 AM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Feb 1 2017, 09:53 AM) *
Yep the bands are already starting and will move around a bit today but Barrie does stand a good chance at some accumulations tonight. Good luck Lake Effect, not like you guys need it up there tongue.gif


I CAN NEVER HAVE ENOUGH SNOW! I AM AN ADDICT. tongue.gif
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snowgeek93
post Feb 1 2017, 10:15 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Feb 1 2017, 09:56 AM) *
I CAN NEVER HAVE ENOUGH SNOW! I AM AN ADDICT. tongue.gif

Unfortunately I have to live vicariously through you for now. Looking at Barrie cams and it looks so awesome!


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 136.8cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 136.8cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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snowbelt
post Feb 1 2017, 12:56 PM
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Attached File  IMG_1150.JPG ( 1.5MB ) Number of downloads: 1


Heavy squall just came through the area . Dropped a quick 5cm . Looks like the squall is breaking up as it heads east , sorry Travis and Lake Effect rolleyes.gif As I just finished typing this I see the squall building again and heading toward Barrie . Get out the shovel Lake Effect !

This post has been edited by snowbelt: Feb 1 2017, 01:17 PM
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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2017, 02:42 PM
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QUOTE(snowbelt @ Feb 1 2017, 12:56 PM) *
Attached File  IMG_1150.JPG ( 1.5MB ) Number of downloads: 1


Heavy squall just came through the area . Dropped a quick 5cm . Looks like the squall is breaking up as it heads east , sorry Travis and Lake Effect rolleyes.gif As I just finished typing this I see the squall building again and heading toward Barrie . Get out the shovel Lake Effect !


Darn, I've already shoveled today too. Actually this was a bit wet/ice pellet like to start, turned to snow now.

I am looking forward to seeing the outcome of the LESPDS (Lake effect's Squall Predicting System...looking at the wind and temps and making an informed guess) vs all the models for tonight. None of them are signaling a big squall, just bits and pieces, but I think we will get a major squall form off GB and hit Barrie. I think they have got it wrong at least as much as me this season.

I wonder if the TSPDS (Travis squall predicting system) has anything to say?
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