LES Potential Feb 1st-Feb 4th, Looks to be a WNW oriented event Options

[GreatWhiteTornad...]

Band off huron extending in to north GTA..
Nice if it would hang around for a bit

[GreatWhiteTornad...]

Visibility approx 1.5 to 2 km

[snowgeek93]

Yup, that band is over us now. Nice snowfall out there laying down a dusting.

[travis3000]

Seeing a slight change in the wind direction as we speak, more of a WNW orientation setting up over the next few hours. The Orillia to Barrie corridor will see additional accumulations tonight. Wasaga, Midland/Penetang also at risk.

All day we've been dealing with bands of heavy flurries rather than major squalls.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Feb 1 2017, 09:36 PM

[MrMusic]

Quick blast of snow just dropped about half a cm and whitened things up!!

[Lake effect]

Had about 6-8cms overnight, probably a bit more to the North East. Travis & Lake Effect 1 - NAM 3K & HRRR 0:

Radar showing the local lads predicted squall:

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12Z NAM and 04Z HRRR (I recall the 12Z HRRR was blank):

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[Lake effect]

Going forward, some bands should form this morning to the East and north of Barrie towards Orillia, they may wobble a bit into Barrie, but unlikely, then they head north East to sit between Orillia and Huntsville area for about 24 hours before heading back South West, and maybe just reaching North Barrie again into the early hours on Saturday.

Having said all that, there may interference from a Huron band when the winds really pick up and are WNW, which drag things a bit further south and form a "supersquall".

North Barrie may get another 10-15cms by Saturday lunchtime, but most of the activity will be in cottage country off GB.

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Feb 2 2017, 07:22 AM

[snowbelt]

^ Sounds about right Lake effect , good job . One thing I will add is I believe there will be some significant squalls today/tonight from the Goderich/Kincardine area north that will form into some pretty long squall lines that could reach several 100 km inland . As well there looks like there will be some consolidating squalls from Huron and G bay that will give some decent accumulations to areas between Orillia and Parry Sound .
Light squalls here this morning but am anticipating some Huron squalls here later today .

[Lake effect]

^ Sounds about right Lake effect , good job . One thing I will add is I believe there will be some significant squalls today/tonight from the Goderich/Kincardine area north that will form into some pretty long squall lines that could reach several 100 km inland . As well there looks like there will be some consolidating squalls from Huron and G bay that will give some decent accumulations to areas between Orillia and Parry Sound .
Light squalls here this morning but am anticipating some Huron squalls here later today .

Absolutely, big band or two off Huron a given. May even reach here at some point.

[Lake effect]

And the NAM 4K agrees...fair bit of this tomorrow:

 nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_26.png ( 159.01K ) Number of downloads: 6

[snowbelt]

That's quite the squall line coming ashore in the Parry Sound area right now . I'm sure there is going to be some large snow totals coming out of that one .

[travis3000]

My aunt lives in Parry Sound, I'll give you some totals when I hear from her. The squall affecting that area right now is putting down 5-7cm per hour and its been stalled over Parry Sound for the past 3, so my guess is they've had about 15cm come down just since 7pm.

We also have a less intense band which has developed from Midland towards Orillia, putting down about 2-3cm per hour.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Feb 2 2017, 10:37 PM

[plowguy]

I'm guessing the Exeter radar is offline? It has been since yesterday afternoon.

[richard]

I'm guessing the Exeter radar is offline? It has been since yesterday afternoon.

I was wondering the same thing as, when I came out of the arena from my daughter's 6am hockey practice this morning, there was a good flurry coming down...and nothing one the radar, when I just looked!

[travis3000]

Parry Sound picked up a solid 15cm last night from that squall, at least at my aunts house. Apparently other people in the area reported 20-25cm.

Squall is now down in Muskoka, as far south as Midland.

[Lake effect]

Parry Sound picked up a solid 15cm last night from that squall, at least at my aunts house. Apparently other people in the area reported 20-25cm.

Squall is now down in Muskoka, as far south as Midland.

I think that might be the extent of its southern trip, maybe a bit further, but written off any chances of it hitting Barrie now. Sunday night is our next chance at a decent shot of LES, maybe a few hours and a quick 10cms, then after the abomination that is coming our way next week, there could some great LES. we will see.

[plowguy]

Exeter back off line. Kind of frustrating. heading to Kincardine this evening like to know SUV or car.

[snowbelt]

Looks like some squalls have formed off of Huron at the moment . First hand account of the Orangeville area getting a quick dusting .

[Canuk]

Hello Everyone. Just finished plowing the driveway with my HDX. 20-25cm. accumulated from yesterday. Between Mactier and Parry Sound. Whoever is receiving snowsqualls at this hour enjoy and stay safe.
Cheers!!

[travis3000]

I think that might be the extent of its southern trip, maybe a bit further, but written off any chances of it hitting Barrie now. Sunday night is our next chance at a decent shot of LES, maybe a few hours and a quick 10cms, then after the abomination that is coming our way next week, there could some great LES. we will see.

The 12z GFS run today showed a classic NNW setup next week after that storm which historically affects the Collingwood to Barrie (and west) towards Angus, Alliston, Newmarket, King City. And another band from Goderich and Grand Bend to Lucan/London. Haven't seen much of that setup at all this season.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Feb 3 2017, 02:46 PM