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> Eastern Canada winter storm Feb 7-9th, Medium range potential double header
Stl
post Feb 1 2017, 06:39 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Feb 1 2017, 05:35 PM) *
I was speaking with a PhD student and one of my profs today and we all agreed that the track of the 5-7 (of February) system will have important upstream impacts on this system. If the 5-7 system ends up more amplified and digging a stronger trough, then there will be more cold air in place and at least favour a more southerly track for this system. If however, the 5-7 system remains relatively flat, then expect the chances of a GLC to increase.



Im thinking the same too.
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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2017, 07:15 PM
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The 18Z GFS had a very familiar look about it...basically the same as just about every major storm since Christmas.

Be watching that 5-7th storm even more closely now.

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Feb 1 2017, 07:17 PM
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JJ Snowlover
post Feb 1 2017, 09:38 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Feb 1 2017, 05:35 PM) *
I was speaking with a PhD student and one of my profs today and we all agreed that the track of the 5-7 (of February) system will have important upstream impacts on this system. If the 5-7 system ends up more amplified and digging a stronger trough, then there will be more cold air in place and at least favour a more southerly track for this system. If however, the 5-7 system remains relatively flat, then expect the chances of a GLC to increase.

Currently, the forecast track (from the models) for the 5-7 system is somewhere between a flat and more amplified system and hence why we see a more W-E or WSW to ENE track with more cold air available, as opposed to a GLC.
rolleyes.gif tongue.gif

Given that the track of the 5 - 7th storm has a sort of clipper-like look and track, I am not sure if it can get amplified until it's on the east coast. We shall see, but your above thoughts are probably correct.

The all over the place look from the models reminds me of the Jan.24 storm where it keeps us guessing tongue.gif
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Lake effect
post Feb 2 2017, 07:41 AM
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The 06Z run pretty good this morning and the ensembles still on track for something:

A very Ontario-centric set of maps I'm afraid, this storm delivers nicely in Quebec on the 06Z run too...not sure about the East coast...someone else post maps if they want...free access to all so if you want to see your region represented, don't be shy! smile.gif

00Z EPS ensemble:

Attached File  00Z_EPS_wed.png ( 125.68K ) Number of downloads: 2


Attached File  00Z_EPS_thur.png ( 132.96K ) Number of downloads: 1


06Z GEFS:

Attached File  06Z_GEFS_wed.png ( 113.15K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  f144.gif ( 164.94K ) Number of downloads: 3


06Z GFS OP run, which is rather tasty, but this is a complex system so won't be resolved until Sunday at the earliest:

Attached File  06Z_GFS_OP.png ( 190.49K ) Number of downloads: 1


24 hr snowfall (total looks very nice with Sunday's clipper thrown in):

Attached File  gfs_asnow24_neus_22.png ( 145.13K ) Number of downloads: 4


CMC which has soggy tail:

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png ( 182.17K ) Number of downloads: 3


24 hour snow:

Attached File  CMC_24_hour_snow.png ( 125.39K ) Number of downloads: 5


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Feb 2 2017, 07:43 AM
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 2 2017, 09:43 AM
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Trend on the euro is really good. Track is further east. Also the euro shows a ton of QPF. If it can track just a bit more SE Could be looking at major accumulation.

06z GFS continues with the two waves of precip from kind of two separate lows. I'm still not sure about that just yet. It's abnormal with this kind of setup with a northern stream and energy from the south that they don't really phase more and both just stay as strong waves as is currently shown. I think we'll see a different solution than what the GFS is showing and it will go more inline with a more phased low like what the euro has. Not to say we still can't get more than one wave of precip with that look but I think a more phased system is likely.
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elder05
post Feb 2 2017, 10:37 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 2 2017, 09:43 AM) *
Trend on the euro is really good. Track is further east. Also the euro shows a ton of QPF. If it can track just a bit more SE Could be looking at major accumulation.

06z GFS continues with the two waves of precip from kind of two separate lows. I'm still not sure about that just yet. It's abnormal with this kind of setup with a northern stream and energy from the south that they don't really phase more and both just stay as strong waves as is currently shown. I think we'll see a different solution than what the GFS is showing and it will go more inline with a more phased low like what the euro has. Not to say we still can't get more than one wave of precip with that look but I think a more phased system is likely.

problem with that is the northern stream has been more dominant this season. this would surely draw warmer air northwards and ultimately take over.
The difference however is more cold air to work with out ahead.
At this point based on the above i gotta think of a transitional p-type storm system. snow to mix and rain.
lot's to watch in the next couple days... lot's of flip flopping to be had


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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 2 2017, 11:23 AM
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QUOTE(elder05 @ Feb 2 2017, 10:37 AM) *
problem with that is the northern stream has been more dominant this season. this would surely draw warmer air northwards and ultimately take over.
The difference however is more cold air to work with out ahead.
At this point based on the above i gotta think of a transitional p-type storm system. snow to mix and rain.
lot's to watch in the next couple days... lot's of flip flopping to be had


Agreed. Like you said lots of cold out in front of the system so if that can act as a damper from the WAA could be more on the frozen precip type side. FWIW 12z GFS was warmer than the last run.
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 2 2017, 11:54 AM
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12z CMC with a cutter. I've said it a few times already and i'll say it again, I don't feel this is going to cut the lakes. Not the right pattern for it IMO. I feel something like what the 06z GFS showed is more likely. Models will go through all possible solutions for the next few runs but I feel good about this storm.





This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Feb 2 2017, 11:55 AM
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elder05
post Feb 2 2017, 11:56 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 2 2017, 11:23 AM) *
Agreed. Like you said lots of cold out in front of the system so if that can act as a damper from the WAA could be more on the frozen precip type side. FWIW 12z GFS was warmer than the last run.

based on surface pressure alone, the storms track is south over the last 3 runs. 00Z LP over lake superior, 06Z over UP of Michigan, and now the 12Z somewhat similar to the 06Z but strings out a bit of an elongated centre, almost like it wants to close out and occlude.
With that said you could question this as a possible transfer of energy from Michigan to eastern lake ontarioish...odd transfer if you ask me...
will look at the upper levels after lunch


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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 2 2017, 12:10 PM
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QUOTE(elder05 @ Feb 2 2017, 11:56 AM) *
based on surface pressure alone, the storms track is south over the last 3 runs. 00Z LP over lake superior, 06Z over UP of Michigan, and now the 12Z somewhat similar to the 06Z but strings out a bit of an elongated centre, almost like it wants to close out and occlude.
With that said you could question this as a possible transfer of energy from Michigan to eastern lake ontarioish...odd transfer if you ask me...
will look at the upper levels after lunch


That would be a strange transfer, chances are it wont turn out that way. To me it's all about the northern stream energy if it can track more south and track in faster then it should have a overall more south colder solution. If not and it stays separate to the southern stream longer and tracks more north chance for mixing and rain increases. 12z euro will be interesting.

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Lake effect
post Feb 2 2017, 12:28 PM
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I hope this doesn't materialize, certainly been a lot of it this year:

12Z GFS:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23__1_.png ( 195.06K ) Number of downloads: 3


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Feb 2 2017, 12:29 PM
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snowgeek93
post Feb 2 2017, 12:46 PM
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^Yup, that's the nightmare scenario we've become all too familiar with over the past few weeks.


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Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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Torontoweather
post Feb 2 2017, 12:51 PM
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QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Feb 1 2017, 09:38 PM) *
Given that the track of the 5 - 7th storm has a sort of clipper-like look and track, I am not sure if it can get amplified until it's on the east coast. We shall see, but your above thoughts are probably correct.

The all over the place look from the models reminds me of the Jan.24 storm where it keeps us guessing tongue.gif


Subtle differences can have a big impact wink.gif
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Torontoweather
post Feb 2 2017, 01:39 PM
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12z UKMET:




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Torontoweather
post Feb 2 2017, 01:43 PM
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12z ECMWF:





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Lake effect
post Feb 2 2017, 01:45 PM
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I'm loving the UK again.

In truth I wouldn't be concerned about the odd bad run, but the fact that so many models are showing a dodgy track, and that this dodgy track has almost become a rut for storms this season is making me very nervous. ECWMF OP looks similar to the UK thankfully.

Attached File  ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png ( 154.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


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Torontoweather
post Feb 2 2017, 01:46 PM
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12z GFS Ensembles (some of them at least):












Still a pretty messy spread in terms of timing, track and number of cyclones/redevelopment(s). Still a ways to go yet!
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Torontoweather
post Feb 2 2017, 01:50 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Feb 2 2017, 01:45 PM) *
I'm loving the UK again.

In truth I wouldn't be concerned about the odd bad run, but the fact that so many models are showing a dodgy track, and that this dodgy track has almost become a rut for storms this season is making me very nervous. ECWMF OP looks similar.

Attached File  ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png ( 154.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


Something I've noticed with this storm and other storms that originate from strong pacific storms is that with every 00z and 12z model run, most of the different models change their overall look but in a similar way. What I mean is, perhaps tonight's 00z run of the GFS will show more of a split low again, with a low coming in quickly behind it, as it did a couple of days ago. I would expect at least some of the other models to follow suit.

i think this has to do with the fact that models are continuing to get the same updated (sampled) data from out west in Alaska and B.C. and so they generally have similar reactions. Obviously, they are not all identical, but with each 00z and 12z update, I've noticed similar changes on the different models.

This post has been edited by Torontoweather: Feb 2 2017, 02:05 PM
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Torontoweather
post Feb 2 2017, 02:05 PM
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A couple things before I get back to school work:



From this image, which is 12 z tomorrow, we can see large amounts of vorticty streaming down from the Arctic and the Northwest territories. This is what will essentially be carving the trough out west. A few difficulties already in association with this: that huge ridge over Alaska. All of the energy has to go over that ridge and then back down on the other side. For one thing, this is a very data sparse region and so as pointed out before, models will continue to change with every 00z and 12z update as things get more clear. As a result, we MAY actually have decent consensus with tonight's 00z runs and tomorrow's 12z runs.

Next problem.



How deep does the western trough actually get and what is the timing of it coming ashore? From the above spaghetti plots we can see reasonable DISagreement between the ensemble members in terms of how far SW the trough digs.

This will be the next key component in terms of getting model consistency and the models probably won't have a great handle on it until it comes ashore next Monday/Tuesday.

At this point, the track of the actual surface cyclone(s) still has a pretty large spread between through the central Great lakes or through the central Ohio River valley.



Only time will tell but perhaps a middle-ground or slight northern middle ground is best right now with a track somewhere through the lower lakes.
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Lake effect
post Feb 2 2017, 02:26 PM
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Great analysis...really exemplifies the issues we are facing and the fact that nothing is written in stone. Will be looking at 00Z with interest.

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