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> LES events 5-9th February, Two events one thread
Lake effect
post Feb 5 2017, 09:14 AM
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Will be a very nice squall tonight that crosses areas South East of GB- north of Orillia through Angus where most will see 1-3 hours of heavy snow between the hours of 4pm and 2am roughly, with accumulations of 5-15 cms as winds go from WNW through NNW, with a long period of NW.

Similar squall coming off Huron north of Goderich.

Attached File  hwn_12.gif ( 32.84K ) Number of downloads: 1


Then after Tuesdays storm is a longer event of 24-36 hours affecting similar areas, but also those affected by the squalls from last with a westerly flow at times. Still uncertainty about the target zones:

Attached File  hwn_84.gif ( 33.7K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Feb 5 2017, 09:15 AM
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snowbelt
post Feb 5 2017, 11:06 AM
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Looks like its going to get a bit gusty today in these parts . Really hoping for some good NNW/NW winds during this event . It has been somewhat of a bust around here this year for snow squalls . We need a cold NNW/NW wind off of G bay to bring squalls into this area and it just hasn't happened this winter . Anyways things do look a little promising for later today and Wed/Thurs . Once again looking forward to every ones input into this event .
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Lake effect
post Feb 5 2017, 12:58 PM
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QUOTE(snowbelt @ Feb 5 2017, 11:06 AM) *
Looks like its going to get a bit gusty today in these parts . Really hoping for some good NNW/NW winds during this event . It has been somewhat of a bust around here this year for snow squalls . We need a cold NNW/NW wind off of G bay to bring squalls into this area and it just hasn't happened this winter . Anyways things do look a little promising for later today and Wed/Thurs . Once again looking forward to every ones input into this event .


You may miss out tonight, winds don't really get much more NW than below before dying down. The furthest West I suspect this squall will dump decent amounts would be Angus.

Attached File  hwn_15__1_.gif ( 30.65K ) Number of downloads: 0
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travis3000
post Feb 5 2017, 01:04 PM
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Squalls will be short lived this afternoon into the overnight as winds will flat line fairly quickly in advance of the Tuesday system. Potential is there for a quick 5-10cm in the Wasaga/Midland corridor SE to Lake Simcoe. I would agree with Lake Effect that the Angus to Cookstown area is about as far west as this one will go.

More squalls will align NW to SE Wed into Thursday putting the Barrie corridor at risk as well as area north of London.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 6cm
TOTAL: 132cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Feb 5 2017, 01:04 PM
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I think these will be the areas to get hit this evening and tonight.

Attached File  20170205_130323.jpg ( 298.42K ) Number of downloads: 2
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snowbelt
post Feb 5 2017, 04:54 PM
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Might get some action here off of Huron today , squalls are starting to form !
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Lake effect
post Feb 5 2017, 05:56 PM
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QUOTE(snowbelt @ Feb 5 2017, 04:54 PM) *
Might get some action here off of Huron today , squalls are starting to form !


Good luck, not sure it will hang around for long though, will head south west fairly quickly.
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Lake effect
post Feb 5 2017, 10:08 PM
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Tonight never really happened...oh well.
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travis3000
post Feb 5 2017, 10:58 PM
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Yeah it never really excited me, the dynamics were weak at best. The blast behind the ice/rain storm Tuesday interests me much more. A solid flow with low sheer, I think some areas will be able to pull off 20-30cm at the very least.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 6cm
TOTAL: 132cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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snowbelt
post Feb 6 2017, 01:06 AM
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Just noticed on radar a moderate squall has just formed out of nothing in the Collingwood/Wasaga down to Angus area . Never seen anything like that before . Formed into a moderate squall in 30 mins. . Snow squalls sure are a different beast !!!

This post has been edited by snowbelt: Feb 6 2017, 01:09 AM
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Lake effect
post Feb 6 2017, 07:25 AM
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QUOTE(snowbelt @ Feb 6 2017, 01:06 AM) *
Just noticed on radar a moderate squall has just formed out of nothing in the Collingwood/Wasaga down to Angus area . Never seen anything like that before . Formed into a moderate squall in 30 mins. . Snow squalls sure are a different beast !!!


They are like a wild u ruly friend, they are very difficult to predict, and don't behave as they should, but when they do pop up, oh boy are they fun! Hopeful for some action after the monstrocity has passed through.
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travis3000
post Feb 6 2017, 02:26 PM
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We picked up half a CM from that little squall overnight. Didn't last long!


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 6cm
TOTAL: 132cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Feb 6 2017, 02:33 PM
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More than you normally get wink.gif
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snowgeek93
post Feb 6 2017, 02:33 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Feb 6 2017, 02:26 PM) *
We picked up half a CM from that little squall overnight. Didn't last long!

Do you guys still have snow up there? Ground is mostly white here but there are some bare patches here and there.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 136.8cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 136.8cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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travis3000
post Feb 6 2017, 03:18 PM
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We are all white here yes smile.gif But clinging on by dear life with just 3-4cm on the ground. Fields are half bare, but most of the front lawns are white which is better than most of January.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 6cm
TOTAL: 132cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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snowbelt
post Feb 7 2017, 01:28 AM
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Still about 10 cm on the ground here with some deeper spots due to drifting .
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Lake effect
post Feb 7 2017, 10:56 AM
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QUOTE(snowbelt @ Feb 7 2017, 01:28 AM) *
Still about 10 cm on the ground here with some deeper spots due to drifting .


Got 23cms here, and I am "captain complain about this winter" smile.gif don't see us losing a whole lot from this storm as the temps barely get above 0.

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Feb 7 2017, 10:57 AM
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Lake effect
post Feb 7 2017, 11:08 AM
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So this event is now split in two (3 if you count the non-event of Sunday night) as a little low skirts to the north in the middle and disrupts the flow. This will mean it possibly won't be huge accumulations, but you never know with LES.

Starts out after the storm with a strong, gusty WNW, which may make it hard for consistent bands to form, then settles into a NW for several hours, before swinging into NNW. It then reappears a day later with a NW flow for about 12 hours before the clipper comes along.

Wednesday morning:

Attached File  hwn_24.gif ( 35.16K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_24.png ( 194.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


Wednesday afternoon, I think the NAM hi res is missing one off GB...hard to tell, but they often do, so wouldn't be surprised to see Barrie hit during this period:

Attached File  hwn_30.gif ( 30.34K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_30.png ( 179.01K ) Number of downloads: 0


Wednesday Evening:

Attached File  hwn_36.gif ( 29.96K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_37.png ( 180.89K ) Number of downloads: 0


Thursday evening, new band forms.

Attached File  9th.gif ( 32.31K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_hour_60.png ( 208.01K ) Number of downloads: 0


My predictions:

Black - tomorrow morning - 5-15cms

Red - tomorrow afternoon (5-15cms), and then again Thursday evening into Friday morning (10-20cms)

Blue - tomorrow evening 5-15cms - the further West the less as the winds drop.


Attached File  predictions.jpg ( 266.81K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Feb 7 2017, 11:09 AM
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travis3000
post Feb 7 2017, 06:01 PM
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Below is my map, as we get closer I am getting less and less impressed by this LES event. Winds are looking a bit disorganized and I don't see anything too crazy. Expect a break between the two bands as the low pressure system skirts to our south, should bring a nice healthy band Friday over northern Lake Huron across to Orangeville or Shelburne, another one affecting Barrie.

Overall its smaller amounts then I initially expected. Nobody will see over 25cm.



Attached File  Squalls_Feb_8th_10th.png ( 354.35K ) Number of downloads: 2


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 6cm
TOTAL: 132cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Feb 7 2017, 06:10 PM
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Hope Barrie gets a decent amount. Heading up there in the next few days and hope to see lots of snow. Really, anything will be better than here.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 136.8cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 136.8cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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