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> Clipper 10/11th Feb, Decent looking clipper short range
sledder
post Feb 9 2017, 10:17 AM
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How about the temperature for Saturday and Sunday. What will the highs be for Muskoka ?
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Lake effect
post Feb 9 2017, 10:22 AM
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QUOTE(sledder @ Feb 9 2017, 10:17 AM) *
How about the temperature for Saturday and Sunday. What will the highs be for Muskoka ?


Saturday 1-2C sunday -1 - 0. Mild, but not too bad.
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Lake effect
post Feb 9 2017, 01:20 PM
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The GTA may do well out of this if the GFS and CMC are on track...looks like a good 10cm:

24 hour to 12Z saturday:

GFS

Attached File  gfs_asnow24_neus_5.png ( 128.98K ) Number of downloads: 4


CMC

Attached File  gem_asnow24_neus_5.png ( 121.77K ) Number of downloads: 5


Total snowfall NAM (LES in there as well)

Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_17.png ( 149.4K ) Number of downloads: 5
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JJ Snowlover
post Feb 9 2017, 01:33 PM
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Just as a reminder, the GEM/CMC was way to warm in many locations with the last storm. Something to watch from that model
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snowgeek93
post Feb 9 2017, 01:56 PM
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Shame one of our best clipper's so far has to be followed by a warm up. Hopefully the 12-13th system can lay down some additional snow.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 2
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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plowguy
post Feb 9 2017, 02:53 PM
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TWN has Brantford at 2-4 cms Sunday with a high of +1. If we get %cms out of the clipper Friday and another 2_4 Sunday I would say its better than nothing. The glass is better if its half full laugh.gif
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plowguy
post Feb 9 2017, 02:54 PM
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Can you tell my "readers" weren't on! 5 cms from the clipper.
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MrMusic
post Feb 9 2017, 03:14 PM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Feb 9 2017, 02:53 PM) *
TWN has Brantford at 2-4 cms Sunday with a high of +1. If we get %cms out of the clipper Friday and another 2_4 Sunday I would say its better than nothing. The glass is better if its half full laugh.gif


4cm is basically a blizzard this winter. I might actually have to go get my shovel back out of the shed unless I decide to let it melt on Saturday. haha


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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snowgeek93
post Feb 9 2017, 04:05 PM
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TWN wants to put us in the 5-10cm range with this clipper, then another 5-10cm on Sunday rolleyes.gif


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 2
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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MrMusic
post Feb 9 2017, 04:47 PM
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Tough to get excited about this down my way. Temps above zero Sat-Tues will basically make this a brief white rain. Sigh....


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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travis3000
post Feb 9 2017, 04:54 PM
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Just to re-iterate the GFS has daytime highs Saturday across Southern Ontario around 1C , so nothing crazy for melting. Given the GFS's performance so far I would lean towards that model over the warm CMC which is still showing 5-6C highs for Saturday. CMC is also showing 2-4C highs for Sunday where the GFS is showing highs near 1C again.

Total Snowfall for BOTH systems (Fri night and Sun night) from GFS

Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_18.png ( 162.1K ) Number of downloads: 8


*ignore the amounts in the Maritimes and US NE as these amounts include the storm tonight and tomorrow.

CMC Numbers for Both Storms:

Attached File  gem_asnow_neus_17.png ( 140.85K ) Number of downloads: 4


This post has been edited by travis3000: Feb 9 2017, 04:59 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 16cm (8cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Feb 9 2017, 06:48 PM
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Hopefully temps don't go too high. Would be nice to keep some snow around here.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 2
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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plowguy
post Feb 9 2017, 06:56 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Feb 9 2017, 04:54 PM) *
Just to re-iterate the GFS has daytime highs Saturday across Southern Ontario around 1C , so nothing crazy for melting. Given the GFS's performance so far I would lean towards that model over the warm CMC which is still showing 5-6C highs for Saturday. CMC is also showing 2-4C highs for Sunday where the GFS is showing highs near 1C again.

Total Snowfall for BOTH systems (Fri night and Sun night) from GFS

Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_18.png ( 162.1K ) Number of downloads: 8


*ignore the amounts in the Maritimes and US NE as these amounts include the storm tonight and tomorrow.

CMC Numbers for Both Storms:

Attached File  gem_asnow_neus_17.png ( 140.85K ) Number of downloads: 4


Its odd TWN for my area is calling for a high of+ 8 on Sat but only +1 on Sunday. Its like they are picking a different model for each day.
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MrMusic
post Feb 9 2017, 10:07 PM
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Down my way the GFS has a high of 5 Saturday and 1-2 for Sunday.
GFS shows snow changing to rain briefly before wrapping up late Friday, and a rain/snow mix for Sunday.
10cm with these temp profiles and mixing seems very unlikely down here.
North of the GTA sure looks better though, with cooler temps and all snow.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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HoBOonFiRE
post Feb 10 2017, 03:49 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 9 2017, 09:36 AM) *
Have to watch how models are picking up on a band of heavier snow right into the GTA with this system. GFS and RGEM both have it. NAM is just slightly east with the heavier band but still affects eastern GTA. Could be some surprise accumulation numbers if it verifies.

So far Oshawa has picked up 6-7 cm in front of the clipper. Still coming down hard.
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Lake effect
post Feb 10 2017, 05:19 AM
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QUOTE(HoBOonFiRE @ Feb 10 2017, 03:49 AM) *
So far Oshawa has picked up 6-7 cm in front of the clipper. Still coming down hard.


The gift of LES smile.gif
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Lake effect
post Feb 10 2017, 05:28 AM
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All the free models are showing a good 8-15cms East of the escaprment...pretty decent for a clipper. The NAM 4K sim radar, which I am finding ultra reliable this close is very generous (with LES it massively underestimates totals, but nails timings). Some of the totals are from the end of the LES, but it shows a particularly strong finish to this event, and the warm up does not look wet:

GFS

Attached File  gfs_asnow24_neus_2.png ( 129.33K ) Number of downloads: 6


CMC

Attached File  gem_asnow24_neus_2.png ( 121.12K ) Number of downloads: 3


NAM 4K

Attached File  nam4km_asnow_neus_9.png ( 140.11K ) Number of downloads: 4


NAM 4k radar 10pm this evening:

Attached File  nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_21.png ( 172.14K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Feb 10 2017, 05:29 AM
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Lake effect
post Feb 10 2017, 05:36 AM
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Big spread on the extent and intensity of the warm up with the CMC thinking we are in the Bahamas!

GFS 1PM EST:

Attached File  gfs_T2m_neus_7.png ( 165.28K ) Number of downloads: 1


CMC 1PM EST:

Attached File  gem_T2m_neus_8.png ( 159.46K ) Number of downloads: 0


This the warmest the NAM 4k gets:

Attached File  nam4km_T2m_neus_35.png ( 182.22K ) Number of downloads: 0


Sunday similar.
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plowguy
post Feb 10 2017, 07:51 AM
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I seem to be a bit too far East for this one. Thinking 2-4 cms maybe. With the bulk of the snow thru the day and the salt on the lots I am not expecting to plow. I could be surprised though.
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 10 2017, 07:54 AM
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QUOTE(HoBOonFiRE @ Feb 10 2017, 03:49 AM) *
So far Oshawa has picked up 6-7 cm in front of the clipper. Still coming down hard.

I'm in whitby and that lake band setup right through our area. I picked up about the same 6-7cm. Nice little snow before the clipper hits.
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