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> Snow Event 11-13 Feb
JFK
post Feb 9 2017, 11:47 AM
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I noticed EC and WN talking about snow for the 11nth until the 13nth or so.. It's related to the big storm to hit the norther US States. So I had a look at the Euro:

Euro:


GEM:


GFS:


I didn't see this covered anywhere else.. My apologies if it was.

J

This post has been edited by JFK: Feb 9 2017, 11:53 AM
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Lake effect
post Feb 9 2017, 12:07 PM
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This looks pretty epic for the East coast north of Boston...over 2 feet, and certainly Nova Scotia - can never see the map beyond there!

S.Ontario bit of fluff, maybe 2-5cms:

Attached File  13th_ON.png ( 181.61K ) Number of downloads: 3


But as it goes East...holy cow! Major blizzard.

Attached File  13th_east_coast.png ( 187.28K ) Number of downloads: 5
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Lake effect
post Feb 9 2017, 12:16 PM
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Found it (always there, just never saw it as in its own special corner:

Nova Scotia gets slammed

Attached File  13th_NS.png ( 154.31K ) Number of downloads: 4


Newfie gets a mess:

Attached File  13th_NFpng.png ( 150.57K ) Number of downloads: 0


This is total snowfall, 87cm over the next week for parts of NS...pretty good!

Attached File  holy_shit.png ( 129.06K ) Number of downloads: 25
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MrMusic
post Feb 9 2017, 12:54 PM
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Holy cow....some spots are going to come close to getting the same amount of snow this next few days as I've received the last 2 winters combined. Wild!


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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snowgeek93
post Feb 9 2017, 12:58 PM
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My god... Nova Scotia accumulation totals look insane! blink.gif


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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frosty
post Feb 9 2017, 03:47 PM
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Gros Morne looks like ground zero with 80 cm!!

Some spots of 64 cm in Maine and NS !

Edit fixed unit of measurement inches to centimetres


This post has been edited by frosty: Feb 9 2017, 05:49 PM
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MrMusic
post Feb 9 2017, 04:49 PM
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Those are cm FYI.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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frosty
post Feb 9 2017, 05:51 PM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Feb 9 2017, 04:49 PM) *
Those are cm FYI.

Thanks
rolleyes.gif
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Torontoweather
post Feb 10 2017, 01:32 PM
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This one looks interesting, particularly from Ottawa eastwards! But even for southern Ontario, it could be decent smile.gif

Here's a quick rundown of the latest models:
12z GFS 24-hour snowfall for this event:


12z NAM 24-hour snowfall:


12z CMC 24-hour snowfall:


12z UKMET total accumulation (still snowing Ottawa eastwards):


00z ECMWF text for Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal:

QUOTE
QUOTE
Hey Rob,

Not sure if people just don't have the EURO text on the Mid-Atl./NE forum or if they just ignored my post, but if you are able to send me the EURO text for the Sunday-Monday storm for YYZ, YOW and YUL that would be great! If not, I totally understand.

Thanks very much,

TOweather


Here you go:

CODE

CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568

00Z FEB10
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
FRI 00Z 10-FEB -6.5 -17.5 1019 56 41 0.00 520 506
FRI 06Z 10-FEB -7.1 -17.2 1021 66 50 0.00 528 512
FRI 12Z 10-FEB -7.2 -16.5 1024 72 38 0.01 536 518
FRI 18Z 10-FEB -4.1 -12.3 1022 52 100 0.00 543 526
SAT 00Z 11-FEB -3.1 -9.8 1013 72 99 0.05 547 537
SAT 06Z 11-FEB -1.4 -2.9 1007 64 38 0.04 548 542
SAT 12Z 11-FEB -0.4 0.1 1008 78 11 0.00 549 543
SAT 18Z 11-FEB 5.4 -1.5 1011 63 11 0.00 552 543
SUN 00Z 12-FEB 0.8 -1.5 1016 82 23 0.00 554 542
SUN 06Z 12-FEB 0.0 -1.0 1016 88 81 0.00 554 542
SUN 12Z 12-FEB -1.7 -0.9 1013 90 98 0.06 551 541
SUN 18Z 12-FEB -0.7 -0.8 1007 90 98 0.10 543 538
MON 00Z 13-FEB 0.5 -6.8 1005 90 98 0.13 530 526
MON 06Z 13-FEB -0.5 -9.7 1008 79 89 0.03 529 522
MON 12Z 13-FEB -3.1 -11.3 1016 75 51 0.01 537 524
MON 18Z 13-FEB -1.8 -9.7 1019 63 22 0.00 543 528


CODE

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YOW LAT= 45.32 LON= -75.67 ELE= 374

00Z FEB10
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
FRI 00Z 10-FEB -15.5 -19.7 1015 68 71 0.00 512 501
FRI 06Z 10-FEB -15.8 -22.3 1016 74 17 0.00 512 500
FRI 12Z 10-FEB -18.4 -26.2 1023 71 14 0.00 519 502
FRI 18Z 10-FEB -13.9 -22.4 1024 42 28 0.00 529 511
SAT 00Z 11-FEB -14.0 -15.4 1020 58 97 0.00 535 520
SAT 06Z 11-FEB -13.7 -12.0 1014 78 95 0.11 535 524
SAT 12Z 11-FEB -12.2 -8.4 1011 81 97 0.03 537 528
SAT 18Z 11-FEB -8.1 -7.6 1013 71 32 0.01 539 529
SUN 00Z 12-FEB -9.2 -8.2 1020 81 4 0.00 544 529
SUN 06Z 12-FEB -12.4 -6.7 1022 84 2 0.00 547 530
SUN 12Z 12-FEB -13.0 -5.6 1019 83 33 0.00 546 532
SUN 18Z 12-FEB -8.9 -5.1 1012 76 99 0.03 541 532
MON 00Z 13-FEB -5.6 -6.4 1005 89 99 0.36 533 529
MON 06Z 13-FEB -4.3 -8.1 1002 87 98 0.27 525 524
MON 12Z 13-FEB -5.7 -11.2 1010 82 66 0.09 529 522
MON 18Z 13-FEB -2.4 -11.3 1014 60 74 0.01 534 523
TUE 00Z 14-FEB -5.0 -10.9 1016 81 66 0.00 536 524


CODE

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YUL LAT= 45.47 LON= -73.75 ELE= 118

00Z FEB10
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
FRI 00Z 10-FEB -14.0 -20.9 1013 64 48 0.00 513 503
FRI 06Z 10-FEB -17.3 -21.5 1014 74 60 0.00 509 499
FRI 12Z 10-FEB -17.7 -26.2 1019 68 32 0.00 511 497
FRI 18Z 10-FEB -14.3 -26.3 1023 45 11 0.00 522 505
SAT 00Z 11-FEB -15.7 -18.3 1022 55 52 0.00 532 515
SAT 06Z 11-FEB -14.2 -14.3 1018 67 97 0.03 533 519
SAT 12Z 11-FEB -13.3 -10.7 1014 79 96 0.05 535 524
SAT 18Z 11-FEB -11.0 -9.3 1014 78 93 0.05 536 525
SUN 00Z 12-FEB -11.8 -9.4 1020 79 12 0.01 541 526
SUN 06Z 12-FEB -15.0 -8.1 1023 82 2 0.00 545 528
SUN 12Z 12-FEB -15.7 -6.8 1021 82 2 0.00 546 530
SUN 18Z 12-FEB -8.0 -6.3 1015 75 96 0.00 542 531
MON 00Z 13-FEB -3.9 -6.3 1008 90 100 0.22 535 529
MON 06Z 13-FEB -5.1 -8.7 1003 88 99 0.32 526 524
MON 12Z 13-FEB -8.4 -9.1 1007 81 94 0.10 527 521
MON 18Z 13-FEB -4.0 -12.3 1012 66 85 0.02 531 522
TUE 00Z 14-FEB -5.0 -12.1 1014 79 77 0.01 534 522



From all of the above, we can see that Ottawa and Montreal and areas eastwards are sitting pretty good right now with a solid 15cm+ projected. For areas further west in south-central Ontario, amounts vary from as low as 3 cm on the GFS to as high as 10cm on the UKMET. A lot is very dependent on when the trough goes negatively tilted and how long we can keep the primary low from transferring its energy to the coast. I will highlight the more in-depth analysis of the phsyics in my next post.

This post has been edited by Torontoweather: Feb 10 2017, 01:35 PM
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Torontoweather
post Feb 10 2017, 01:45 PM
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Hour 62 of the 12z GFS:


We can see some very strong Cyclonic Vorticity Advection (CVA) into southern Quebec at this hour as the trough becomes neutral to negatively tilted.

Hour 72:


Best forcing moes east into eastern Quebec, Maine and New Brunswick.

The timing with this will be crucial. The earlier the trough goes negatively tilted, the more Quasigeostrophic (QG) forcing there will be to induce ascent and thus heavier precipitation.

Virtuall all of the nergy associated with the trough that will be carved out should be ashore by tonight's 00z runs:



And if not, definitely by tomorrow's 12z runs:


We should have a very good idea of the strength and positioning of the trough by then. Then we can really start to get into the more mesoscale problems such as snow-to-liquid water ratios, ideal dendritic growth conditions, etc. Should be fun to watch this weekend while I write a paper! tongue.gif
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snowgeek93
post Feb 10 2017, 02:01 PM
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Looks like potential for some more snow at least. Temps look more favourable for holding onto it afterwards if we even get any.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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JFK
post Feb 10 2017, 02:43 PM
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Maybe it's because we've been fooled a few times in the past two weeks, but I get this feeling it's going to push south.. But that's just an unfounded feeling..






J

This post has been edited by JFK: Feb 10 2017, 02:46 PM
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travis3000
post Feb 10 2017, 05:04 PM
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GFS is the least bullish on that Sunday storm here, basically has us at 3cm, the NAM at 10cm, the EURO at 10cm, the CMC at 8cm , the UKMET at 10-15cm. Should be interesting to see what happens.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Feb 10 2017, 05:05 PM


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Feb 10 2017, 06:38 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Feb 10 2017, 05:04 PM) *
GFS is the least bullish on that Sunday storm here, basically has us at 3cm, the NAM at 10cm, the EURO at 10cm, the CMC at 8cm , the UKMET at 10-15cm. Should be interesting to see what happens.

Agreed. Be nice to get some snow back after we lose today's gains.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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plowguy
post Feb 10 2017, 07:42 PM
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EC and TWN are talking freezing rain for my area. Temps seem close. If anyone has any thoughts I would appreciate them.
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shane o mac
post Feb 10 2017, 10:37 PM
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Holy that is alot of snow in Nova Scotia lol but i cant lie that im getting a little excited but also kinda scared to get excited as we always get the last minute north trend .. but heres hoping we can all enjoy some snow smile.gif
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JFK
post Feb 11 2017, 08:38 AM
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Ok.. I am starting to believe this thing:





J
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 11 2017, 08:45 AM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Feb 10 2017, 07:42 PM) *
EC and TWN are talking freezing rain for my area. Temps seem close. If anyone has any thoughts I would appreciate them.

This storm doesn't look to have a strong freezing rain signal IMO. Not ruling it out completely but that's not the main type of precip from this system.
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 11 2017, 09:05 AM
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Really starting to look like from the GTA on east will get some decent snow from this. System energy from the south phases with the northern energy a bit too late for much snow for the SW. Almost has a miller b look to the storm with the coastal transfer. Still looks on track for nova scotia and newfoundland to get major accumulations.
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plowguy
post Feb 11 2017, 09:07 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 11 2017, 08:45 AM) *
This storm doesn't look to have a strong freezing rain signal IMO. Not ruling it out completely but that's not the main type of precip from this system.

Thanks for the info!
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