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> Eastern Canada Winter Storm: March 13-16, Medium Range Forecasts
Torontoweather
post Mar 10 2017, 07:36 AM
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As nice as the GFS looks, I have to think it'll shift back east given the ECMWF Ensembles and CMC ensembles. Still time to go yet but we'll see!
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Stl
post Mar 10 2017, 10:04 AM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Mar 10 2017, 07:36 AM) *
As nice as the GFS looks, I have to think it'll shift back east given the ECMWF Ensembles and CMC ensembles. Still time to go yet but we'll see!



GFS was pure fantasy but if this look to be very similar to the 13th of March 1993 then hopes are still there i guess.
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SNOWBOB11
post Mar 10 2017, 10:16 AM
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Difficult to know exactly where it will track as it's just out of range, but the last frame of the 12z NAM looks like it would be on a more west and inland track and more inline with the GFS.

I agree with Toweather that there might be some east movement with the track as the EPS is more off the coast with the low pressure center.
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SNOWBOB11
post Mar 10 2017, 10:20 AM
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QUOTE(Stl @ Mar 10 2017, 10:04 AM) *
GFS was pure fantasy but if this look to be very similar to the 13th of March 1993 then hopes are still there i guess.


I have to look up the march 93 storm as I don't remember what the track was with it exactly. I wasn't even 4 years old then so you can't really blame me. laugh.gif
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MrMusic
post Mar 10 2017, 10:24 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Mar 10 2017, 10:20 AM) *
I have to look up the march 93 storm as I don't remember what the track was with it exactly. I wasn't even 4 years old then so you can't really blame me. laugh.gif


March 93 was incredible. I don't see this the same....that storm crippled the entire US eastern seaboard. It was fun storm to track...back in the days before computer and weather models available to regular joe blows like us.

Storm of the Century. I'll never forget it

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Storm_of_the_Century

I remember friends of ours were heading to Myrtle Beach that week. I told them not to go. They said they would leave early and get far enough south to beat the snow.... as we can all imagine, that didn't happen. haha. They ended up holed up in some motel halfway there. It even snowed in Florida.

This post has been edited by MrMusic: Mar 10 2017, 10:27 AM


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Mar 10 2017, 10:39 AM
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If todays GEM is to be believed, Grimsby to Niagara would have the best shot at lake effect. GFS still painting a scenario that would be better for Burlington/Hamilton.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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elder05
post Mar 10 2017, 10:42 AM
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great write up TO! i've been tracking a bit also and i like your analysis. So many variables at play here, will be fun to watch. Could be an epic eastern seaboard storm for sure!
MrMusic, as always, im watching for the prospects of some Lake Effect/Enhancement as well. Good initial analysis.
I'll take a better look at things as we get closer. Far too complicated to delve into LES atm...but again, im interested!


--------------------
follow me on twitter @coreywxelder
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MrMusic
post Mar 10 2017, 10:49 AM
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QUOTE(elder05 @ Mar 10 2017, 10:42 AM) *
great write up TO! i've been tracking a bit also and i like your analysis. So many variables at play here, will be fun to watch. Could be an epic eastern seaboard storm for sure!
MrMusic, as always, im watching for the prospects of some Lake Effect/Enhancement as well. Good initial analysis.
I'll take a better look at things as we get closer. Far too complicated to delve into LES atm...but again, im interested!


Great to hear from you! I've had absolutely nothing to track all winter so I'm certainly giving this more time than I normally would this far out. haha.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Mar 10 2017, 10:55 AM
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I've obviously been on the US forums. They're going bonkers as expected. Much to my delight, the 93 SOTC and 2007 Valentines Day storm are 2 of the analogues for this storm . Wow


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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snowgeek93
post Mar 10 2017, 11:05 AM
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Nothing special for here it seems but guys further east watch out!


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 136.8cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 136.8cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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Stl
post Mar 10 2017, 11:40 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Mar 10 2017, 10:20 AM) *
I have to look up the march 93 storm as I don't remember what the track was with it exactly. I wasn't even 4 years old then so you can't really blame me. laugh.gif


I was a bit older than you than and i remember that the snow rates were insane since the storm was mostly overnight.


QUOTE(MrMusic @ Mar 10 2017, 10:24 AM) *
March 93 was incredible. I don't see this the same....that storm crippled the entire US eastern seaboard. It was fun storm to track...back in the days before computer and weather models available to regular joe blows like us.

Storm of the Century. I'll never forget it

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Storm_of_the_Century

I remember friends of ours were heading to Myrtle Beach that week. I told them not to go. They said they would leave early and get far enough south to beat the snow.... as we can all imagine, that didn't happen. haha. They ended up holed up in some motel halfway there. It even snowed in Florida.


The merger of the 3 Jets are what make's it very similar plus looking at the indexes it's very similar.

I remember also that nobody had an idea about what was coming since like you say the models weren't the same back then , was quite a surprise in the morning seeing all that snow.
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winter48
post Mar 10 2017, 12:20 PM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Mar 10 2017, 10:55 AM) *
I've obviously been on the US forums. They're going bonkers as expected. Much to my delight, the 93 SOTC and 2007 Valentines Day storm are 2 of the analogues for this storm . Wow

So you think we have a shot of getting something decent in Hamilton/Burlington?
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Torontoweather
post Mar 10 2017, 12:20 PM
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QUOTE(Stl @ Mar 10 2017, 11:40 AM) *
I was a bit older than you than and i remember that the snow rates were insane since the storm was mostly overnight.
The merger of the 3 Jets are what make's it very similar plus looking at the indexes it's very similar.

I remember also that nobody had an idea about what was coming since like you say the models weren't the same back then , was quite a surprise in the morning seeing all that snow.


Actually that was the first real implementation of ensemble forecasting and in general they nailed the storm about 5 days out smile.gif
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Torontoweather
post Mar 10 2017, 12:23 PM
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Surprised no one is mentioning the 12 z GFS...

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=...us_ne&dpdt=

or the 12 z UKMET:
http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-p...test&hh=096

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-p...test&hh=120

12 z CMC way east but hey its the CMC. Won't discount it but unless the Euro is way east, it's certainly on the lower probability of occurring.
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Torontoweather
post Mar 10 2017, 12:25 PM
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QUOTE(elder05 @ Mar 10 2017, 10:42 AM) *
great write up TO! i've been tracking a bit also and i like your analysis. So many variables at play here, will be fun to watch. Could be an epic eastern seaboard storm for sure!
MrMusic, as always, im watching for the prospects of some Lake Effect/Enhancement as well. Good initial analysis.
I'll take a better look at things as we get closer. Far too complicated to delve into LES atm...but again, im interested!


Thanks! Certainly the GFS and UKMET think so!
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winter48
post Mar 10 2017, 12:28 PM
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Thanks for the detailed write-up TW!:)
I'll be watching for your updates as the system gets closer!
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Stl
post Mar 10 2017, 12:42 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Mar 10 2017, 12:20 PM) *
Actually that was the first real implementation of ensemble forecasting and in general they nailed the storm about 5 days out smile.gif


Hi TO , i was refering mostly to the general people here in Montreal has for the forecast that's a different story indeed.

QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Mar 10 2017, 12:23 PM) *
Surprised no one is mentioning the 12 z GFS...

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=...us_ne&dpdt=

or the 12 z UKMET:
http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-p...test&hh=096

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-p...test&hh=120

12 z CMC way east but hey its the CMC. Won't discount it but unless the Euro is way east, it's certainly on the lower probability of occurring.


Il wait a bit more but i have to admit that things look good at the moment.

This post has been edited by Stl: Mar 10 2017, 12:48 PM
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travis3000
post Mar 10 2017, 12:46 PM
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Did I see that right? 12z GFS has a foot of snow for pretty much everywhere in Southern Ontario!? Don't get me excited!! The snowfall map Im seeing is showing closer to 8-15cm. Is it that big of a difference between the 10:1 ratios and Kuchera?

CMC is WAY east, doesn't even affect Ontario or Quebec.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Mar 10 2017, 12:52 PM


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 6cm
TOTAL: 132cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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MrMusic
post Mar 10 2017, 01:01 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Mar 10 2017, 12:23 PM) *
Surprised no one is mentioning the 12 z GFS...

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=...us_ne&dpdt=

or the 12 z UKMET:
http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-p...test&hh=096

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-p...test&hh=120

12 z CMC way east but hey its the CMC. Won't discount it but unless the Euro is way east, it's certainly on the lower probability of occurring.


A foot of snow for Hamilton..... let's lock this in. Lol


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Mar 10 2017, 01:02 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Mar 10 2017, 12:46 PM) *
Did I see that right? 12z GFS has a foot of snow for pretty much everywhere in Southern Ontario!? Don't get me excited!! The snowfall map Im seeing is showing closer to 8-15cm. Is it that big of a difference between the 10:1 ratios and Kuchera?

CMC is WAY east, doesn't even affect Ontario or Quebec.


Ya we have fantastic ratios with this system. that GFS run put down about .6-.7 inches of QPF here, which translated into 12 inches of snow with ratios.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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