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> March 1-4 Winter Storm Plains/MW/OHV/GL OBS, Last minute forecasts and observations
StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 1 2014, 11:53 AM
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Precipitation has broken out across the north central plains

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Let the now-casting begin.


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 1 2014, 11:55 AM
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Still quite a bit of lightning out west this morning.
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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WeatherMonger
post Mar 1 2014, 11:56 AM
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Ok, let's start fresh. Bring the I-72 special back please
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RobB
post Mar 1 2014, 11:55 AM
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Current WV and 500 heights. MSLP 994.7 millibars:
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ec_bb
post Mar 1 2014, 11:57 AM
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Indy upgraded to Winter Storm Warning. 5-8 inches snow and sleet 20 miles either way of I-70.
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CIWeather
post Mar 1 2014, 11:59 AM
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QUOTE(ec_bb @ Mar 1 2014, 10:57 AM) *
Indy upgraded to Winter Storm Warning. 5-8 inches snow and sleet 20 miles either way of I-70.


Ball is in your court ILX laugh.gif Are you guys going to be the one to make the map look weird? Lol


--------------------
2016-2017 Fall/Winter Statistics

First Chance of Snow:
First Snowflakes:
First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: (Winter Weather Advisory)
First Winter Storm Watch: 1/12/17
First Winter Storm Warning:
First Blizzard Watch/Warning:
# of Winter Storm Watches: 1
# of Winter Storm Warnings:
# of Blizzard Watches/Warnings:

2017 Severe Weather Statistics

First Risk of Severe Weather:
Slight Risks: 3
Enhanced Risks: 1
Moderate Risks: 1
High Risks:

Severe Thunderstorm Watches:
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:
Tornado Warnings:


April 18-19, 2016: 20-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL.
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CIWeather
post Mar 1 2014, 12:00 PM
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From ILX at 10:13...


QUOTE
Will hold onto the Winter Storm Watch until all of the 12Z model
guidance has arrived, before making the decision on how to convert
it.


--------------------
2016-2017 Fall/Winter Statistics

First Chance of Snow:
First Snowflakes:
First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: (Winter Weather Advisory)
First Winter Storm Watch: 1/12/17
First Winter Storm Warning:
First Blizzard Watch/Warning:
# of Winter Storm Watches: 1
# of Winter Storm Warnings:
# of Blizzard Watches/Warnings:

2017 Severe Weather Statistics

First Risk of Severe Weather:
Slight Risks: 3
Enhanced Risks: 1
Moderate Risks: 1
High Risks:

Severe Thunderstorm Watches:
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:
Tornado Warnings:


April 18-19, 2016: 20-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL.
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The Snowman
post Mar 1 2014, 12:00 PM
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6 day old punt and 5.5" call live on.


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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RobB
post Mar 1 2014, 12:00 PM
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Conus 500s including 500 relative vorticity:
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Regionrat
post Mar 1 2014, 12:01 PM
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I'll go with a straight 6" here. It's happened all winter long, no reason to stop now.


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Early evening dusk
Snow softly covering trees
Winter grips the land
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 1 2014, 12:03 PM
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12z HRW NMM shows one heck of a dry slot through central MO, similar to what the previous 2 NAM runs show.

36 hour QPF through 00z Monday.
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--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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The Snowman
post Mar 1 2014, 12:04 PM
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QUOTE(Regionrat @ Mar 1 2014, 01:01 PM) *
I'll go with a straight 6" here. It's happened all winter long, no reason to stop now.

4" looking like a good bet up here, wouldn't push beyond 6" IMBY though. You look good for 6".


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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Snow Mo in CoMo
post Mar 1 2014, 12:04 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 1 2014, 11:03 AM) *
12z HRW NMM shows one heck of a dry slot through central MO, similar to what the previous 2 NAM runs show.

36 hour QPF through 00z Monday.


Lol I'm screwed. This would be the third time that happened this winter if it goes down like that.

Been scraping the edge of many storms it seems like.
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CentralIllinois
post Mar 1 2014, 12:04 PM
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Lol ILX has big decision to make I'm guessing advisory will now be a warning 4-6 along 70 and 6-8 along 72


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Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


Note to Accuweather.com....Please give us a dedicated video blogger for the Plains/MW/OV/GL area!
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CIWeather
post Mar 1 2014, 12:10 PM
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QUOTE(CentralIllinois @ Mar 1 2014, 11:04 AM) *
Lol ILX has big decision to make I'm guessing advisory will now be a warning 4-6 along 70 and 6-8 along 72


Or, they'll be the ones who have to be different and stick with the WWA and make the map look funny laugh.gif


--------------------
2016-2017 Fall/Winter Statistics

First Chance of Snow:
First Snowflakes:
First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: (Winter Weather Advisory)
First Winter Storm Watch: 1/12/17
First Winter Storm Warning:
First Blizzard Watch/Warning:
# of Winter Storm Watches: 1
# of Winter Storm Warnings:
# of Blizzard Watches/Warnings:

2017 Severe Weather Statistics

First Risk of Severe Weather:
Slight Risks: 3
Enhanced Risks: 1
Moderate Risks: 1
High Risks:

Severe Thunderstorm Watches:
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:
Tornado Warnings:


April 18-19, 2016: 20-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL.
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xigris14
post Mar 1 2014, 12:10 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 1 2014, 01:03 PM) *
12z HRW NMM shows one heck of a dry slot through central MO, similar to what the previous 2 NAM runs show.

36 hour QPF through 00z Monday.



GFS has that area getting nailed. So frustrating that you cant rely on models. Constant flipping.
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Snow Mo in CoMo
post Mar 1 2014, 12:11 PM
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I think NW MO is in a perfect spot for the first band late tonight. They've had a very good winter up there. The question is how far does it sink and stay?

That's what NAM/GFS don't agree on.
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NorthCentralOhio
post Mar 1 2014, 12:24 PM
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Has anyone heard what NWS Cleveland is thinking! I am assuming by the lack of Northern Ohio Folks in here it isn't"t good
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jdrenken
post Mar 1 2014, 12:24 PM
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Keep it going everyone!


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TheBlizzardOf197...
post Mar 1 2014, 12:24 PM
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http://www.weather.gov/
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