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> June 9-10 MidAtl/NE (Nor'easter?) storm, Possibility - Short Term Forecasts D2+
Undertakerson
post Jun 6 2017, 03:04 PM
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I guess we don't talk about coastal storms that travel inside the 40/70 benchmark, unless they can deliver snow. sad.gif

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Of course, good ol (sometimes progressive) GFS does not agree

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Euro seems to favor the GFS version - but hooks it back in (?)

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NAVGEM corollary, anyone?

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CTPAFD barely mentions anything - must be ignoring the UKIE, I suppose.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jun 7 2017, 11:49 AM
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Undertakerson
post Jun 6 2017, 03:05 PM
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WPC map

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Undertakerson
post Jun 6 2017, 03:07 PM
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OPC shows just outside of benchmark

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Undertakerson
post Jun 6 2017, 03:11 PM
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As we well know, the NAM sometimes sniffs out the track of a coastal system, before the global set catches on. It looks much more like the UKIE.

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LUCC
post Jun 6 2017, 03:18 PM
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Hopefully it is weak and a very quick mover, the gloomy wet weather is getting a bit annoying.


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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Undertakerson
post Jun 6 2017, 03:23 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Jun 6 2017, 04:18 PM) *
Hopefully it is weak and a very quick mover, the gloomy wet weather is getting a bit annoying.

Probably will be, relatively, weak down our way, but NE - that's another matter. It drops near the lower 980mb level once up by their zones. Should be a familiar theme, left over from winter - Bos to ME in the cross hairs ATTM
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LUCC
post Jun 6 2017, 03:24 PM
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Coastal scrapper on the CMC
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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Undertakerson
post Jun 6 2017, 03:39 PM
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AFDBOS

QUOTE
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...

* Coastal low could bring a windswept rain Thursday PM into Fri
* Improving conditions this weekend into next week with dry weather
* Above average temperatures are expected Sunday into Tuesday with
potential heat headlines

Pattern Details...

Anomolous closed low about 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal
will move over the Appalachia and continue to spin for the start of
the medium range. Potent shortwave rounding the base of the low will
developing a coastal low off the Carolina coast
. This set-up is
something we see more in the winter than early June as this coastal
low will move near the Benchmark, which could result in a windswept
rainfall for Thursday night into Friday morning
. Still a spread in
the guidance but will continue with a model blend for now
. Zonal
flow late Friday into Saturday as strong mid-level ridge over the
Plains moves over the region starting Sunday, lasting into next
week. This ridge will be the pattern change many of us are hoping
for bringing dry weather and above seasonable temperatures.

Details...

Thursday...High confidence.

Cutoff low will push over the Appalachia starting on Thursday as mid-
level ridge begins to build into the region. At the surface, high
pressure will build into the area resulting in light winds and
sunshine to start. Temperatures will begin to turn more seasonable
with highs in the 70s. Cooler on the coast as sea breezes develop.

Thursday night into Friday morning...Low confidence.

Potent upper level low still over the region with coastal low moving
up from the Mid-Atlantic. Still some discrepancies with model
guidance to lead to a low confidence forecast. The latest 12z GFS
pushes the low farther offshore resulting in a whiff compared to the
NAM and 00z EC. The 12z EC and UKMET also trended a bit offshore,
but still impacting eastern MA. Despite the trend further offshore,
will continue to trend the forecast with a wind swept rainfall late
Thursday night into early Friday morning along the immediate
coastline. This is due to the potential for the low to trend back
westward as the average track error for 72 hours out is about 150
miles. If this system slows up by 6 hours, then Friday could even
turn crummy with rain and blustery northerly winds.
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yamvmax
post Jun 6 2017, 06:27 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Jun 6 2017, 04:18 PM) *
Hopefully it is weak and a very quick mover, the gloomy wet weather is getting a bit annoying.

A bit??? Another rainy cold week here. This is definitely the worst spring I can remember.
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MaineJay
post Jun 7 2017, 04:19 AM
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GYX

QUOTE
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
All operational models now keeping coastal low sufficiently
east of our region to keep rain off the coast, with the Euro
showing the easternmost trac
k and the Canadian, further to the
west with its track. Model ensembles depict an upper level low
opening up with time, allowing the system to pass east of our
region. The aforementioned upper level low will trigger shower
activity in our region on Friday however. There could be a
rumble of thunder as well particularly in the Connecticut River
Valley as a cold front approaches the region.


Latest SREFs
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5 day QPF
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--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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NorEaster07
post Jun 7 2017, 05:18 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 6 2017, 04:04 PM) *
I guess we don't talk about coastal storms that travel inside the 40/70 benchmark, unless they can deliver snow. sad.gif


From NWS Taunton few days ago..

QUOTE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
639 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017

If you want it, here it is, come and get it, dont need to hurry
because it`s going to last. Cool, wet weather that is. And this is
just the start of a prolonged period that goes through at least
midweek. Cool season crops are surely going to love this weather...
tomatoes, not so much.


* Late season coastal low provides periods of rain, very cool
and windy weather Mon and Tue

* High pressure brings a drying trend Wed and Thu

* Finally milder Fri-Sat ahead of a series of mainly dry cold fronts

Ensembles and deterministic guidance is very good agreement on an
anomalous high amplitude omega block pattern for early June. This
includes a vigorous upper low over Ontario Mon then into NY state
Tue before finally becoming an open wave Wed over New England and
ejecting out to sea Thu. At the surface this translates to parent
low pressure over NY state Mon giving way to secondary
low/cyclogenesis near NYC Mon night then to near the benchmark 12z
Tue. This is June?
The surface low ejects seaward with high
pressure building into New England Wed and Thu, providing a drying
trend.

Details...

Monday...

Low pressure over PA redevelops off the NJ coast late Mon and then
intensifies Mon night and early Tue to about a 995 mb low just
southeast of Nantucket! Quite anomalous for early June. This results
in a steady rain Mon and Mon night. In fact a wind swept rain for
the eastern MA coastline as low pres intensifies south of New
England. As low level jet increases will have to watch for the
threat of strong winds downing tree limbs and branches along the
coast from Cape Ann to Cape Cod. The 12z EC is most robust with 925
mb easterly jet increasing Mon night and peaking to nearly 50 kt
across the outer Cape! Even the 12z GEFS 925 mb wind anomalies
approach +2 standard deviations. Given trees are fully leaved wind
speeds of this magnitude will result in a threat for down tree limbs
and isolated power outages. Will just have to see how models trend
given still 2+ days out.

Tuesday...

As mentioned above anomalous low pres of around 995 mb southeast of
Nantucket will provide strong winds across southeast MA Tue morning
especially Cape Cod and Nantucket. Wind headlines may be necessary.
As dry slot approaches comma-head rains over our area will lift
northward into central New England and be replaced by areas of
drizzle. Thus less rainfall Tue than Mon/Mon night but very dreary
with areas of drizzle and chilly northeast winds. Leaned toward the
colder guidance given the synoptic background. In fact some places
of the higher terrain in northern Worcester may remain in the 40s!
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NorEaster07
post Jun 7 2017, 05:29 AM
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Canadian, GFS, NAVY, Euro.

No threat to Northeast except Eastern MA and maybe high surf along the coasts.

Euro the furthest out and weakest.. Canadian the strongest and most precip.

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telejunkie
post Jun 7 2017, 10:57 AM
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Thought that this one maybe the haymaker that could put Mt Washington over the top in June snowfall. June record is 8.1" (1959) and they're currently at 5.3" for the month. Two years in a row with strong June snowfall #s up there. Still a chance it could deliver some upslope effects, but not sure it will bring enough cold air to change precip to snow...time will tell.


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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NorEaster07
post Jun 9 2017, 04:59 AM
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49° here. 41° just 20 minutes north of me. Our lows got colder and colder this week.

Currently a 994mb low less than 200 miles off the coast.

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MaineJay
post Jun 9 2017, 05:45 AM
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Yesterday was quite warm up here. Widespread mid 80s. Millinocket reached 87°, doesn't often reach those temps in the shadow is Katahdin.

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Not much rain from this, mostly a frontal passage. Just happy to avoid the sun today.


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--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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stretchct
post Jun 9 2017, 03:46 PM
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Glad it missed. Saw the sun today smile.gif





--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis




First measurable
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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