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> May 26-28 MidAtl/NE Holiday Weekend Tropical Rains/Severe Potential, Forecasts and Observations
PlanetMaster
post May 25 2018, 04:02 PM
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Well I have nothing to do but code all day so need something else that interests me so here it is.

Although not a total washout there is a chance for scattered heavy downpours especially nearer to the coast. Also chance for isolated strong to severe storms especially west and south. Tropical moisture streaming North from the Gulf with a warm front, warm/hot temps and then an approaching cold front will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms for part of the holiday weekend. Temps are forecast to be above normal for the most part leading to a very nice weekend temps wise. Chances for precip range from late Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Monday looks to be a iffy as well with chilly temps in the 50's once again. sad.gif

Post your obs, holiday party/cookout pics, hope everyone enjoys the holiday weekend!

GFS total precip into Monday
Attached Image




Best chance of stronger storms looks to be late Saturday and Saturday night
Attached Image



NAM 3K


This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: May 26 2018, 02:45 PM


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PlanetMaster
post May 25 2018, 04:27 PM
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Wishing everyone a great kick off Summer holiday weekend and fun in the Sun cool.gif

This



Not this


Attached Image


This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: May 25 2018, 05:02 PM


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Undertakerson
post May 25 2018, 05:57 PM
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Looking a bit better for my area, than it did 3 days ago.

QUOTE
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Sat should be almost as warm as Friday, but more clouds will
likely hold temps down a deg or two comparatively. The N and E
have the best chance to stay just as warm. Humidity will
increase everywhere. Dewpoints may approach 70F in the far SE.
CAPEs reach above 1000J/kg, and NAM has got some points near
2000J/kg in the aftn. A weak low-level cap will probably delay
shower development until after noon
, but it should mix out
easily. Thunder is a given with numbers like that. Shear is poor
and strongest wind in the lowest 15kft is about 20kts in the
aftn. Therefore, wind damage is unlikely. Wet bulb zero is also
sky high. So, hail not a problem Sat.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Saturday night into Sunday will see unsettle weather continue.
However the upper level trough will shift to the east which will
shift the flow to the NW. This will allow for slightly drier
conditions. However, with ample low level moisture there is
still a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, though
the best chance will be along the Mason Dixon line. The weak
flow aloft on Sunday should limit Sunday afternoon convection to
pulse storms. A ridge building into the mid west could tamp
down moisture further. So have lowered precipitation chances on
but there remains a chance for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and early evening. Memorial Day
looks to be slightly cooler but humid.




Nothing really severe and the tropical stuff stays south (of my area) confined to maybe S half of VA?
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 26 2018, 08:54 AM
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One of the reasons why I like tropical storms is all the extra soundings NWS offices launch smile.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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yamvmax
post May 26 2018, 10:04 AM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ May 25 2018, 04:27 PM) *
Wishing everyone a great kick off Summer holiday weekend and fun in the Sun cool.gif

This



Not this


Attached Image

Beautiful day yesterday, today shaping up for a nice pool day too. BTW, did you notice how clear it was last night? My wife and I were out till 10pm, spotting all the planets, no telescope needed.
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PlanetMaster
post May 26 2018, 10:35 AM
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QUOTE(yamvmax @ May 26 2018, 11:04 AM) *
Beautiful day yesterday, today shaping up for a nice pool day too. BTW, did you notice how clear it was last night? My wife and I were out till 10pm, spotting all the planets, no telescope needed.

Perfect day yesterday, took a walk into the village last night and all the clubs and restaurants had the doors open and sidewalk tables set, it was packed a gorgeous evening. Hazy, hot, and humid today a real Summer feel. Just threw some burgers on the grill, who said you cant eat meat before Noon?

3K lights things up tonight and Sunday so today is your holiday weekend as Monday looks damp and cool.



HRRR



Memorial day temps chilly at the coast once again!

Attached Image


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KENNYP2339
post May 26 2018, 11:20 AM
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Just came inside and turned the central ac on, its horrible outside, 92deg 48% humidity, I'm sweating just standing still.
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PlanetMaster
post May 26 2018, 12:27 PM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ May 26 2018, 12:20 PM) *
Just came inside and turned the central ac on, its horrible outside, 92deg 48% humidity, I'm sweating just standing still.

I picked today to run around, clean the house, work on things that I have put off, and pretty much everything else... Dripping wet and changed shirt twice already tongue.gif

84F
Humidity 61%
Wind Speed SW 14 mph
Barometer 29.81 in (1009.4 mb)
Dew 68F (20C)
Heat Index 88F (30C)

Last update 26 May 12:53 pm EDT

Things starting to pop in the heat and tropical airmass.



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KENNYP2339
post May 26 2018, 12:33 PM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ May 26 2018, 01:27 PM) *
I picked today to run around, clean the house, work on things that I have put off, and pretty much everything else... Dripping wet and changed shirt twice already tongue.gif

84F
Humidity 61%
Wind Speed SW 14 mph
Barometer 29.81 in (1009.4 mb)
Dew 68F (20C)
Heat Index 88F (30C)

Last update 26 May 12:53 pm EDT

Things starting to pop in the heat and tropical airmass.


Same here, my room mate decided today would be a great day for me to weed all the flower beds and spread mulch, lost my shirt at 9:30 am and already drank about a gallon of water. What ever winter weight I put on has since melted off of me. I starting to see that maybe she tricked me again.

This post has been edited by KENNYP2339: May 26 2018, 12:34 PM
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 26 2018, 01:40 PM
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CB and TCU all around the area quite the lightning event in some of these storms so might have to contend with some hefty rains and hail as they are not moving all too quick either. Should be main action from Harrisburg to Philly on south with bulk showing up in DC/BMore area and ridge lines seem to be the focus for today.

Cape quite large but shear virtually nothing so pulse like storm potential instead of linear forming segments. Maybe we can get a little something if they can cluster up coming off the mountains.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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PlanetMaster
post May 26 2018, 02:39 PM
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Attached Image


QUOTE
Severe Thunderstorm Warning

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
325 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland...
Northern Prince Georges County in central Maryland...

* Until 415 PM EDT.

* At 325 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Adelphi, or
over Langley Park, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
Bowie, College Park, Greenbelt, Langley Park, Beltsville,
Bladensburg, University of Maryland, Laurel, Hyattsville, White
Oak, Takoma Park, East Riverdale, Adelphi, New Carrollton,
Mitchellville, Riverdale Park, Hillandale, Lanham-Seabrook, Goddard
and Silver Spring.


Attached Image


QUOTE
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1202 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018


...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN PULASKI...GILES...BLAND...NORTHWESTERN WYTHE AND
SOUTHEASTERN MERCER COUNTIES...

At 1200 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned
area. Up to one inch of rain has already fallen. Flash flooding is
expected to begin shortly.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Pulaski...
Bland...
Bluefield...
Pearisburg...
and Narrows.


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PlanetMaster
post May 26 2018, 02:44 PM
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Butter with that popcorn?






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phillyfan
post May 26 2018, 03:14 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ May 26 2018, 02:40 PM) *
CB and TCU all around the area quite the lightning event in some of these storms so might have to contend with some hefty rains and hail as they are not moving all too quick either. Should be main action from Harrisburg to Philly on south with bulk showing up in DC/BMore area and ridge lines seem to be the focus for today.

Cape quite large but shear virtually nothing so pulse like storm potential instead of linear forming segments. Maybe we can get a little something if they can cluster up coming off the mountains.

Not seeing anything developing around here yet.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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Undertakerson
post May 26 2018, 03:18 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ May 26 2018, 04:14 PM) *
Not seeing anything developing around here yet.

Nothin' but 90+ and rather disgusting DP's. sad.gif

Edit - actually, the DP is in the 50's. Maybe if I slow down on the yard work a bit, that will help my outlook. smile.gif


That, and if I start to tug on that little handle atop the big aluminum barrel that is sitting atop ice. wink.gif

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: May 26 2018, 03:20 PM
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Solstice
post May 26 2018, 03:38 PM
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Disgusting day... I hate this kind of weather. I'd rather it be raining.
Well... at least it gave me some time to do some bike maintenance. tongue.gif.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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PlanetMaster
post May 26 2018, 04:05 PM
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Thunder and heavy rain reported west of Philly in this pop up storm


Attached Image


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Solstice
post May 26 2018, 04:27 PM
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20 minute radar loop over New York City... 5 min intervals. Apologies in advance for the "shaky" GIF, I was using screenshots... still need to figure out how to obtain individual background images.


Well... that escalated quickly.

QUOTE
Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service New York NY
518 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018


.NOW...

At 518 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a shower over East Tremont,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

This shower will be near...
Throgs Neck Bridge and City Island around 530 PM EDT.

Locally heavy rainfall can be expected with this activity.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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PlanetMaster
post May 26 2018, 04:33 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ May 26 2018, 05:27 PM) *
20 minute radar loop over New York City... 5 min intervals. Apologies in advance for the "shaky" GIF, I was using screenshots... still need to figure out how to obtain individual background images.


Well... that escalated quickly.

Yeah popped up out of nowhere, we just went mostly cloudy here may see some rain from that if it holds together, probably end up just to my north and east at the current SE movement.

Attached Image

2 hours later it made it! to my N&E and 4 drops I counted laugh.gif

Attached Image

This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: May 26 2018, 06:27 PM


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PlanetMaster
post May 26 2018, 09:17 PM
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Forecast for rain over night into Sunday could be heavy at times. Just getting into WPA now. Look for CPA to fill in and a soaker at the coast in the wee hours. Going to be wet for the bagel run in the morning.



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phillyfan
post May 26 2018, 10:42 PM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ May 26 2018, 10:17 PM) *
Forecast for rain over night into Sunday could be heavy at times. Just getting into WPA now. Look for CPA to fill in and a soaker at the coast in the wee hours. Going to be wet for the bagel run in the morning.


Flash Flood Watch just issued, so this is kind of unexpected:
QUOTE
Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1138 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

NJZ007>010-012>015-017>020-022-025>027-PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106-
271400-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0003.180527T0600Z-180527T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.
O/
Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-
Ocean-Atlantic-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-
Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Flemington,
Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton,
Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson,
Hammonton, Atlantic City, Long Beach Island,
Wharton State Forest, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton,
Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester,
Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale,
Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
1138 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of New Jersey and Pennsylvania,
including the following areas, in New Jersey, Atlantic,
Camden, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Eastern Monmouth,
Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Northwestern
Burlington, Ocean, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington, Warren,
and Western Monmouth. In Pennsylvania, Berks, Delaware,
Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lehigh, Lower Bucks,
Northampton, Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester, and
Western Montgomery.

* Until 10 AM EDT Sunday

* Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight in
the general vicinity of the Interstate 78 corridor as a cold
front sinks south into the area. These storms will be capable of
producing very heavy rainfall with rainfall amounts in excess of
2 to 3 inches possible in just a few hours. This may lead to
urban and small stream flooding along with flooding of low-lying
areas. Flash flooding will also be possible, especially if
storms move repeatedly over the same areas. By morning, these
showers and storms will shift southward along the front,
affecting southeast Pennsylvania, including the Greater
Philadelphia area, and central New Jersey. Urban, small stream,
and flash flooding will remain a threat as the storms affect
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that there is the potential for flash
flooding which can be life-threatening. Heavy rain is expected to
occur over a short period of time. Rapidly rising flood waters
may quickly inundate roadways and areas of poor drainage. Streams
and creeks could leave their banks, flooding nearby properties.

Please monitor the forecast, especially if you live in a location
that is prone to flooding. Be prepared to take action if a flash
flood warning is issued for your area.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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