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idecline
Posted on: Oct 16 2017, 08:43 PM


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...Pacific is starting to push the high pressure...foggy weather and ocean air will finally ease fire issues...
...even better is a chance for rain into Thursday and Friday...especially for the North Bay Area... smile.gif
Attached Image

...front is now starting to make headway towards California...amplitude in the jet makes for a possibility of precipitation...OPC 48hr:
Attached Image


OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...long term there is a typhoon in the Western Pacific...if it is a re-curving storm this may be a TR scenario...

wishing all the best to friends and co-workers in Santa Rosa...Solano, Sonoma, and Napa counties will survive
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2249624 · Replies: · Views: 69,051

idecline
Posted on: Oct 13 2017, 07:46 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Attached Image

the center of 'dry' air is still right over the Northern California fire zone...high winds again a possibility...

hopefully an onshore push begins Monday ...as the high pressure wanes in front of an approaching cold front and associated trough...this could bring rain to the Bay Area late next week...
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2249511 · Replies: · Views: 69,051

idecline
Posted on: Oct 13 2017, 07:42 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 19,070
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From: uncertain
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Keokuk, IA on 10/14/2017

Girard, OH on 10/15/2017

Cortez, CO on 10/16/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2249510 · Replies: · Views: 40,551

idecline
Posted on: Oct 13 2017, 07:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(grace @ Oct 12 2017, 05:38 PM) *

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 12 2017, 11:42 PM) *
Strong Pacific jet from Korea to South Dakota. Alrighty then.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 13 2017, 05:27 PM) *
Patience...


And this should help


...check that jet...Wow! ...looks like two troughs into the West before the end of October...

...seems like the PDO+ is "not dead yet" as many have 'preconceived'... dry.gif ...and the Pacific jet stream is starting to roar as it did last fall...could it be that observation of trends is more significant than all of these 'acronyms' that are only 'representative' of what is really occurring and might occur in the future???

...it still seems that this La Nina mode may be at it's maximum...with neutral conditions ahead, a PDO+, and a very strong Pacific jet...can anyone say 2016-2017 similarity (for the West Coast)...with storms just a bit further north with a little less tropical influence...the PDO trends often last for many, many years...thus the "Pacific Decadal Oscillation"...major changes do not occur overnight or even in a week or two...IMHO unsure.gif huh.gif wink.gif

QUOTE
...again these are idee's non-certified attempts at reminding 'Mets and aspiring mets' that the weather is free for anyone to enjoy, talk about, and attempt to predict...there is no corner on the market or should there be...poor attempts at prognostication come from professionals and amateurs alike...the internet has only given some a place to disseminate mis-information about all subjects...whether or weather... anyone can post info that can potentially be misleading or even harmful to others...


idee rant #22, 917 is above...
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249508 · Replies: · Views: 29,295

idecline
Posted on: Oct 10 2017, 08:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
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QUOTE(grace @ Oct 9 2017, 11:13 PM) *
I also think it's pretty neat though when it allows your Joe Renkens to notice the BSR & Josh Herman type minds to develop the RRWT models. For those guys to see things the educated in the field haven't is very needed. Without access those types of contributions to the meteorology would never occur.


Excellent answer...Science progresses slowly...even the 'dis-dained' (i.e. Sir Gilbert Walker)
QUOTE
Sir Gilbert Thomas Walker, CSI, FRS (14 June 1868 – 4 November 1958) was an English physicist and statistician of the 20th century. Walker studied mathematics and applied it to a variety of fields including aerodynamics, electromagnetism and the analysis of time-series data before taking up a teaching position at Cambridge University. Although he had no experience in meteorology, he was recruited for a post in the Indian Meteorological Department where he worked on statistical approaches to predict the monsoons. He developed the methods in the analysis of time-series data that are now called the Yule-Walker equations. He is known for his groundbreaking description of the Southern Oscillation, a major phenomenon of global climate, and for discovering what is named after him as the Walker circulation, and for greatly advancing the study of climate in general. He was also instrumental in aiding the early career of the Indian mathematical prodigy, Srinivasa Ramanujan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilbert_Walker

It takes Scientists from all disciplines to discover new meaning and advances in the world, especially something that it is inherently linked to all sorts of the Earth's and the Universe's processes...um... like weather...
rolleyes.gif

Sometimes a view of a satellite picture is all a forecast needs... the stubborn behavior of High Pressure, or oceanic effects or changes, or even Solar flares and radiation can change the weather patterns...Meteorology is definitely not the 'end all, be all' way to view the phenomena of weather ...or especially all the associated disciplines...

Warning: Above is idee's personal opinion...and other's opinion's may differ... wink.gif

Now...the Weather...

Attached Image

...just looking...doesn't it seem that the Pacific is winding up it's gears...readying itself to send storms into the CONUS...?

OPC 48hr:
Attached Image


...and if the RRWT is a 'factual' entity...doesn't there appear to a lot of 'amplitude' already forming in the potential 'storm track'...and what would this pattern look like in about ~52.7 days tongue.gif as it starts to 'progress'?

idee meanderings...signing off..... huh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249398 · Replies: · Views: 180,058

idecline
Posted on: Oct 10 2017, 08:00 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
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Delmont, PA on 10/11/2017

Bluffton, SC on 10/12/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2249396 · Replies: · Views: 40,551

idecline
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 03:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(idecline @ Oct 4 2017, 07:36 PM) *
Fort Collins, CO on 10/10/2017

changing to :

Poplar Bluff, MO on 10/10/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2249336 · Replies: · Views: 40,551

idecline
Posted on: Oct 4 2017, 08:03 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...continued dry, mild to warm weather this week...with cooler Autumnal nights...anything happening...? unsure.gif
Attached Image

...Water Vapor imagery shows a stubborn high pressure off Oregon coast extending into the Upper Great Basin
...the large main center of Eastern Pacific high pressure is orientated far to the west...allowing NW winds with dry, somewhat cooler air to flow into the Bay Area...as this feature nudges east a warmer trend will continue

OPC 48hr:
Attached Image


...this shows a vigorous front to the far north entering the Aleutian Islands...???spilling over the top??? '16 redux? lurking in the shadows for Fall and Winter...?

unsure.gif blink.gif ohmy.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2248809 · Replies: · Views: 69,051

idecline
Posted on: Oct 4 2017, 07:46 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Oct 3 2017, 07:01 PM) *
I would like to know who/what/when/where you heard these things?

Cool images, but I'm not particularly sure what they mean with respect to this winter.


...these are image(s) from the TAO/Triton array in the tropical Pacific Ocean...showing 3-D of ocean hgts. and SST's...
Attached Image

Attached Image

QUOTE
This is a view of the current El Nino / La Nina evolving in the tropical Pacific Ocean. You are looking westward, across the equator in the Pacific Ocean, from a vantage point somewhere in the Andes Mountains in South America. The colored surfaces show TAO/TRITON ocean temperatures. The top surface is the sea-surface, from 8N to 8S and from 137E to 95W. The shape of the sea surface is determined by TAO/TRITON Dynamic Height data. The wide vertical surface is at 8S and extends to 500 meters depth. The narrower vertical surface is at 95W. The animation frames show monthly values for the last 60 months. All of these data come from the TAO/TRITON Array of moored ocean buoys in Equatorial Pacific.


https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/ani/

...and this year and last year frames are eerily similar...the tropics are still the 'main driver' this year IMHO

...along with PDO and high pressure orientation in the Eastern Pacific... huh.gif

PS...can you say "sloshback"...the ocean has been 'tilted' for a long time now...it will return...(El Nino... )dry.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2248808 · Replies: · Views: 180,058

idecline
Posted on: Oct 4 2017, 07:36 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,070
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From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866



Fort Supply, OK on 10/05/2017

Fort Sill, OK on 10/06/2017

Fort Scott, KS on 10/07/2017

Fort Wayne, IN on 10/08/2017

Brownsville, TX on 10/09/2017

Fort Collins, CO on 10/10/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2248807 · Replies: · Views: 40,551

idecline
Posted on: Oct 3 2017, 02:20 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...appears to have 'shear' to the north...perhaps it will track N/NW over land and re-emerge on Pacific side...?

Attached Image

...with evidence of rotation and formation of 'tropical' features...this could still be a feature to be recognized in the GOM if can hang together and move more to the north before being pushed to the W/NW...???
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2248672 · Replies: · Views: 33,818

idecline
Posted on: Oct 3 2017, 02:06 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Wauwatosa, WI on 10/04/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2248668 · Replies: · Views: 40,551

idecline
Posted on: Oct 3 2017, 01:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...what will happen this winter...??? ...idee has heard that a prediction of 'La Nina' may be a bit premature...

From TAO/Triton array...a series of views and the inevitability of the 'sloshback'...??? wink.gif

Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/ani/

...frames are ~12 months apart...and with erratic trades and a climatilogical waning of colder Southern Hemisphere ocean upwelling along the Peruvian coast...with EPAC high pressure still in 'unusual' orientation...

Could we have a Winter similar to last year?...idee hears that the Pacific jet...an 'amplified' pattern...along with slight 'displacement' of regional high pressure in the EPAC could create a pattern similar to last Winter...

...especially with the PDO looking again to be very influential in determining the 'air flow' (rocks in the stream) that sends the weather into the CONUS... wink.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2248667 · Replies: · Views: 180,058

idecline
Posted on: Oct 3 2017, 01:46 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...3-D views from Triton/TAO array show when we reach a 'low' point (La Nina) ...that a 'sloshback' may be imminent...
Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/ani/

...and with cool waters from the Southern Hemisphere beginning to wane (climatologically)...and erratic trades...

What really is going to happen this winter...idee forsees the Polar Pacific jet being the big player...along with the PDO and a weakening La Nina type of regime...and high pressure orientation again displaced to the west...
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2248664 · Replies: · Views: 66,736

idecline
Posted on: Sep 25 2017, 08:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 20 2017, 12:23 PM) *
Keep hope alive! Lol. Speaking of changes, if you notice the BeOP frequency, it suggests a lot of action beginning soon and heading through mid October. Storms to keep notes on I suspect as they could become "signature" value. wink.gif



QUOTE(idecline @ Sep 20 2017, 02:04 PM) *
...just a note from an 'observational and anecdotal' 'forecaster'...meaning idee's inanities... dry.gif

last winter the eastern Pacific high pressures all seemed to be orientated in an E-W kind of look with weakness at the coast...the centers of pressure seemed to be located further west than what my recollection of previous years looked like...sort of like the so-called 'Banana highs' over the Atlantic...

...with this trough coming into the Pacific Northwest in a big hurry...it 'anecdotally' seems like a strong Pacific jet may be the big player again this winter...with a La Nada 'redux' to boot...idee sees wet, wet winter for West...

...above based on poster non-linear accumulation and regurgitation of other's incisive study in 'forecasts'...

Warning: the above is all pure conjecture...based upon nothing more than idee's whimsical weather world... huh.gif

Attached Image

rolleyes.gif ...can you say 'amplification'...?



QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Sep 21 2017, 03:43 PM) *
Few things in life are a guarantee, but I can guarantee that this winter will be quite different than the last. First and foremost, it's very unlikely that California has another record setting precip year.

The La Nina is stronger so the fire hose of moisture should land farther north than California along the west coast. As of this moment in time, my best bet is British Columbia in December and the Pac NW in Jan/Feb.

This has important implications across the US with a more positive PNA early in the season and a more negative PNA later in the season. Therefore, December into January is likely the best time frame for eastern snow interests. Plus, March/April are always a wild card irrespective of what happens during the winter season.


...maybe...
Attached Image
Attached Image


...and with OSNW3's statement about 'signature' storms...what about a trough over West US in say ~52-54 days...and that it persists for a week or so...could this be hitting EC around Thanksgiving...just sayin' wink.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2248312 · Replies: · Views: 180,058

idecline
Posted on: Sep 25 2017, 08:34 PM


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...been a week of lovely mild weather...much cooler nights with the advent of Fall weather ...but stellar days..
Attached Image

...ridge digs in for a few more days...yet...lurking out in the Pacific...
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...a front from the north(propelled by a northerly component) meets a mid-latitude front...and behind that. blink.gif

...on the Long Term Winter weather thread 'El-Lipsis' weather made a 'brash' statement about perhaps another wet winter for the West...

...um...aren't those low(s) a bit more southerly than they should be(climatologically speaking) dry.gif

...and don't the high pressure system seem to be depressed( sad.gif ) to the south again so far this Fall...
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2248308 · Replies: · Views: 69,051

idecline
Posted on: Sep 25 2017, 08:25 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
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From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866



Portage, IN on 09/26/2017

Portales, NM on 09/27/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2248306 · Replies: · Views: 40,551

idecline
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 02:04 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,070
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 20 2017, 12:23 PM) *
Keep hope alive! Lol. Speaking of changes, if you notice the BeOP frequency, it suggests a lot of action beginning soon and heading through mid October. Storms to keep notes on I suspect as they could become "signature" value. wink.gif


...just a note from an 'observational and anecdotal' 'forecaster'...meaning idee's inanities... dry.gif

last winter the eastern Pacific high pressures all seemed to be orientated in an E-W kind of look with weakness at the coast...the centers of pressure seemed to be located further west than what my recollection of previous years looked like...sort of like the so-called 'Banana highs' over the Atlantic...

...with this trough coming into the Pacific Northwest in a big hurry...it 'anecdotally' seems like a strong Pacific jet may be the big player again this winter...with a La Nada 'redux' to boot...idee sees wet, wet winter for West...

...above based on poster non-linear accumulation and regurgitation of other's incisive study in 'forecasts'...

Warning: the above is all pure conjecture...based upon nothing more than idee's whimsical weather world... huh.gif

Attached Image

rolleyes.gif ...can you say 'amplification'...?
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2247712 · Replies: · Views: 180,058

idecline
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 01:45 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...Puerto Rico took direct hit...and Dominica... sad.gif ...
Attached Image

...Jose seems to want stay semi-stationary off Atlantic Canada coast for next several days...trough in central Canada is going to be sent up and over...waiting for new energy off the Pacific(seems very strong) to move east and perhaps be the last minute 'push' to keep Maria just offshore of direct EC hit...
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...do Jose and Maria do the dance...or are they too far for any interaction...and would that send Jose retrograde towards coast...??? ...too many questions are to be resolved...only good from landfall has been slight weakening of storm and another appearance of moving towards N/NW...Coriolis do your stuff...
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247705 · Replies: · Views: 187,733

idecline
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 01:31 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
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Cloquet, MN on 09/21/2017

Clontarf, MN on 09/22/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2247700 · Replies: · Views: 40,551

idecline
Posted on: Sep 18 2017, 08:40 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...what?...a front and associated deep trough bearing down on the West Coast...on September 18th...?
Attached Image

yowzah...I guess that we may have a little shot of rain in the north...and a bunch of cool air...Sierra snow???

Attached Image


...it looks to have plenty of upper air support as the low sails down the coast...bringing cold air and instability

blink.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2247172 · Replies: · Views: 69,051

idecline
Posted on: Sep 18 2017, 08:18 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...this storm is really in mature state...pinhole eye and deepening quickly...some weakness to N...?
Attached Image

OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...this has Maria already a bit north...TD Jose seems to linger on the caboose of trailing front...Fujiwhara???

...hopefully once it moves a bit to NW the rapid deepening will force it to interact with remains of Jose and exit (stage right)... unsure.gif

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247160 · Replies: · Views: 187,733

idecline
Posted on: Sep 18 2017, 07:56 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 19,070
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From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866



Dilworth, MN on 09/19/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2247149 · Replies: · Views: 40,551

idecline
Posted on: Sep 14 2017, 02:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 19,070
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(NwsScott @ Sep 14 2017, 01:58 PM) *


500 mb verification scores over North America.

1 = perfect score for model verification over NHemisphere 500 mb. Note Cmc is scoring better than the Gfs model. Ukmet as usual is scoring number 2.


...meaning the even 'best' verification has over a 11% error rate...and some of us rolleyes.gif use 'absolutes'...
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246189 · Replies: · Views: 158,057

idecline
Posted on: Sep 14 2017, 01:46 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,070
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From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866



Sleepy Eye, MN on 09/15/2017

Blue Earth, MN on 09/16/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2246183 · Replies: · Views: 40,551

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