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jdrenken
Posted on: Today, 12:02 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 24 2017, 11:00 PM) *
Record breaking -NAO(?) at the end of the run too.



I'm going to love seeing the American we plots for that!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253567 · Replies: · Views: 241,510

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:37 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Nov 24 2017, 09:55 PM) *
It is amazing how much some people will argue agaiinst anything cold:). I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.


It's amazing how some people only post cold and, as such, miss the warmth coming because they were too busy regurgitating about how cold such and such ensemble guidance was for the same period. wink.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253562 · Replies: · Views: 241,510

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
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Using my pattern recognition techniques, I'd say we have a drop of 7 day scores come the 28th/29th and 10th/11th.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253552 · Replies: · Views: 241,510

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:34 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 38,247
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 24 2017, 12:16 PM) *
To be fair... we should've had a month long torch per BSR


To be fair, misinterpreted of the rule not withstanding. I'm at work, so will reference cranky's bsr website to show that "month long torch" is bogus.

http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/bsr.php
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253533 · Replies: · Views: 241,510

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 09:12 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,247
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 24 2017, 06:42 AM) *
[attachment=333441:page__5_.jpeg]


+WPO ftw
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253510 · Replies: · Views: 241,510

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 09:02 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,247
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 24 2017, 05:22 AM) *
SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific can change quickly. The buoy at 95°W has fluctuated between 22.6°C and 19.6° C over the last 3 days.

http://tao.ndbc.noaa.gov/refreshed/measure...=11&emin=00
The AVHRR instrument atop the METOP-A and METOP-B takes daily readings.

[attachment=333435:navy_anom_bb__17_.gif]
https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif
Last two weeks
[attachment=333436:ezgif_4_59c4d2c105.gif]
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.....anim.week.html


Bogus! laugh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253509 · Replies: · Views: 241,510

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 23 2017, 07:24 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 38,247
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(grace @ Nov 23 2017, 06:15 PM) *
I've always been skeptical of Tropical tidbits SST changes...so I'm in agreement


The CPC update states it was -0.4C on the 20th...so it's very well possible.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253482 · Replies: · Views: 241,510

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 23 2017, 06:31 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 23 2017, 03:30 PM) *


Then he follows up with the weeklies which is opposite of the above in so many ways that you don't know where to start.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/933830194409775104
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253474 · Replies: · Views: 241,510

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 23 2017, 03:55 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Even though Niño 1+2 is the most volatile, it's still saying something here. From -2 to neutral positive in 7 days.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253467 · Replies: · Views: 241,510

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 23 2017, 03:33 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(BeauDodson @ Nov 22 2017, 10:22 PM) *
I will be curious to see if we might pull a severe weather event or two out of the potential systems during late November into the first part of December.

Guidance has been hitting on a system around December 5th, 6th, 7th. Give or take.


The chicklet looks interesting for sure!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253465 · Replies: · Views: 241,510

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 23 2017, 02:51 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Better hope the JMA is incorrect in the depiction of the date line sinking motion!

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/933643518043594753
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253464 · Replies: · Views: 241,510

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 21 2017, 10:37 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 38,247
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 14 2017, 08:44 PM) *
Looks familiar blink.gif

[attachment=333078:1jpeg.jpg]

[attachment=333079:1gif.gif]


Cranky sent me this...

Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253349 · Replies: · Views: 397,572

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 21 2017, 07:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
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Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Darn phone won't let me see the reply buttons under y'all's post. I agree with the assessment of where the cold is focused. Europe is the winner for sure!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253330 · Replies: · Views: 1,614

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 21 2017, 03:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Ahoff @ Nov 21 2017, 01:36 PM) *
Thanks for answering guys. So basically, it just sets up the pattern that could produce storms? In other words, we could see conditions favorable for what happened in Asia 3 weeks prior, but something storm-wise may not actually come together?


Incorrect.

Bering Sea Rule is 17-21 days...usually go with 19.
East Asia Rule is 6-10 days...usually go with 8.

Doesn't just apply to storms either. Our paper showed that we can match cold blast and heat waves too.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253310 · Replies: · Views: 241,510

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 21 2017, 03:05 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 20 2017, 06:17 PM) *
This isn't a perfect overlay a compared to this one, but I think it's close enough. Plus, I had to use an SPC image to overlay, so there is some radar bits and pieces that contaminate it a bit. I'll work on a better overlay image for the future.
I used Himawari-8 imagery of East China.

[attachment=333359:ezgif_4_...0bfd__1_.gif]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...s_to_display=24


Pretty darn close since Nashville is to Seoul! Great job!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253309 · Replies: · Views: 15,012

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 21 2017, 12:49 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 38,247
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(Ahoff @ Nov 21 2017, 10:27 AM) *
So again, I'll show my lack of knowledge on this stuff, but that's what I'm here to do...learn. I don't know what the RRWT is or what it means, but also about what is the approximate verification rate of the RRWT, or BSR, or EAR, or any of them really. Because, to me, and I could be wrong, but it seems like when I read these threads people say 'this rule hints at such and such an event', but it seems to rarely materialize. I know that it won't always hold, but it seems it very rarely even resembles what occurs elsewhere. Again, maybe I'm wrong, but I just don't really know much about this stuff.




Josh's post was perfect with the definitions.
QUOTE(Ahoff @ Nov 21 2017, 10:27 AM) *
Because, to me, and I could be wrong, but it seems like when I read these threads people say 'this rule hints at such and such an event', but it seems to rarely materialize.


It's all a matter of perception. There are those who misinterpret the said rules as locking in an actual HECS or what not. For us, it's a pattern recognition technique.

One of my favorite quotes that I've used over the years...

QUOTE
We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!


Our paper that Josh linked showed we have a success ratio of 71.1% for the BSR and 68.6% for the EAR in identifying 2σ events. Mind you, that's a 71.1% chance of finding a 2σ event 19 days in advance for the lower 48!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253302 · Replies: · Views: 241,510

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 20 2017, 04:06 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 20 2017, 03:05 PM) *
If someone is trying to compare 2016 with 2017...just give it up already. If so #agenda for sure!


I deleted my post. I need to fill my glasses prescription and soon! ROFL
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253239 · Replies: · Views: 120,660

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 20 2017, 04:04 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 20 2017, 02:56 PM) *
Fall 2016 thread is activated unsure.gif tongue.gif


I'm on my phone! laugh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253237 · Replies: · Views: 120,660

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 20 2017, 03:40 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 20 2017, 11:39 AM) *
Are you saying models need improvement? tongue.gif


Pfft... according to some it's gold. wink.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253233 · Replies: · Views: 62,165

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 20 2017, 02:46 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
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All of the hoopla on Twitter and nothing here? I'd say Europe energy demand will be through the roof with the split being modeled.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253230 · Replies: · Views: 1,614

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 20 2017, 08:27 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 20 2017, 05:32 AM) *
0z EPS completely flipped flopped from yesterday's 12z run. Unusual for EPS ensemble mean to change that much in one run. In other words...ignore guidance right now


Per it's skill scores it's not surprising.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253205 · Replies: · Views: 62,165

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 19 2017, 11:41 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Word on the street is jb likes this period. Anyone know his track record on storms this month?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253191 · Replies: · Views: 15,012

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 19 2017, 02:12 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
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From the latest Hovmoller Analysis...

The northern hemisphere is currently under a Wave 6 pattern with the largest
amplitude indicated near Kamchatka. A large hemispheric block is noted near
and along the dateline where a very large expansive ridge resides. This is
causing some increased amplification in the western Pacific and perturbed
short-wave flow downstream towards the U.S. west coast. Meanwhile, a large
cold pool is planted firmly over the Hudson’s Bay region awaiting a tap for cold
air plunges into the U.S. in time. This first such surge does appear to be
setting up for Thanksgiving Weekend with increased signal crossing with
amplitude noted on November 24-25 in the middle and eastern U.S.
The PNA is currently in a negative phase at this time due in large part to the
large trough off the Asian continent in the upper Pacific., but should trend to a
neutral posture once the mid-Pacific ridge breaks down. Both the NAO and
AO are in sync at this time, currently neutral but trending negative. It does
appear the modeling may be too aggressive with the uptick in time, as a
negative phase may linger for another 10-14 days before turning upward
towards the early days of December.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253166 · Replies: · Views: 62,165

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 19 2017, 03:15 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 38,247
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
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https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/weatheramerica

WEATHERAmerica Newsletter is online!

1) The forecast is actually somewhat normal for a November in the U.S., with some of the cold air from Canada drifting south. But nothing truly extreme.

2) Dryness in much of the West will be concurrent with warmth, and occasionally lurch into the Great Plains through the first week of December.

3) There is a small chance that a coastal storm could develop out of the Gulf of Mexico during the new week. Nothing definite, just bears watching.

4) Analog forecasts show a much warmer eastern third of the U.S. for most of next month. Other signs, however, seem to disagree with that scenario.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253119 · Replies: · Views: 62,165

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 11:48 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 18 2017, 09:47 PM) *
Dang it snowman, it's too early in the season for me to throwing out the "cool, thanks" replies... dry.gif


Hahahaha
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253117 · Replies: · Views: 15,012

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