 Oct 21-23 MidAtl/NE Rain/Snow Storm, Closed - See OBS Thread |
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  Oct 8 2010, 11:31 AM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 4,434 Joined: 13-January 10 From: Bronx,NY Member No.: 20,929  |
Made this thread to discuss the oct 20 -25 storm( i put wide date for any movement)
GFS is showing a cold support storm Here is the 06z GFS on the morning of the 23rd Link
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-------------------- There is no such thing as boring weather.
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Oct 8 2010, 11:48 AM
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#2
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 20,621 Joined: 27-February 08 From: Brooklyn,NY Member No.: 14,017 |
Storm is a Lakes Cutter on the 12z GFS lol
-------------------- Anthony
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Oct 8 2010, 11:53 AM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,434 Joined: 13-January 10 From: Bronx,NY Member No.: 20,929 |
blame the nose diving ULL
This post has been edited by WeatherDudeNYC: Oct 8 2010, 11:53 AM
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-------------------- There is no such thing as boring weather.
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Oct 8 2010, 11:58 AM
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#4
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,284 Joined: 17-December 08 From: Freehold Boro Member No.: 16,547 |
There seems to be a couple/few lake cutters around this time frame lol
-------------------- Central monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30" Freehold boro snowfall 2008 - 2009: 26.8" 2009 - 2010: 74.2" 2010 - 2011: 61.1" 2011 - 2012: 8.5" 2012 - 2013: 37.1" |
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Oct 8 2010, 12:04 PM
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#5
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 356 Joined: 22-February 08 From: 20109 Member No.: 13,903 |
And so the season of Great Lakes cutters begins.
-------------------- 2009-2010 snowfall total: 76 inches
2010-2011: 14.0 inches total 2011-2012: Dusting |
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Oct 8 2010, 12:09 PM
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#6
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 1,932 Joined: 24-May 06 From: Richmond Hill, Queens, New York Member No.: 1,928 |
GFS has been hinting at a storm system in this time frame for a while now... Since the one for next weekend has disappeared, would like to see this one bring some excitement. Hopefully it's not one of those La Nina years where we have to wait till December to get a major storm system (such as 2007).
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Oct 8 2010, 12:20 PM
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#7
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 Admin Group: Administrator Posts: 7,108 Joined: 6-March 05 From: State College, PA Member No.: 2 |
I wouldn't put much stock in it this far out because of the GFS cold bias, without other models showing it but here is what GFS is officially showing today:
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Oct 8 2010, 12:23 PM
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#8
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,604 Joined: 24-January 09 From: Harwich, MA Member No.: 17,084 |
I am not buying the snow this model sees in late OCT. Who knows, maybe this winter LA Nina while actually bring more ocean effect snowfall this winter with the frontal boundaries and Alberta Clippers/Miller B type snowstorms will be the norm.
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Oct 8 2010, 12:37 PM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,434 Joined: 13-January 10 From: Bronx,NY Member No.: 20,929 |
850mb temps
Link Skew-t for NYC during storm -0.8C  Skew-T This post has been edited by WeatherDudeNYC: Oct 8 2010, 12:39 PM
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-------------------- There is no such thing as boring weather.
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| Removed_Member_Snowrider_* |
Oct 8 2010, 01:33 PM
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#10
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Guests |
QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Oct 8 2010, 01:23 PM)  I am not buying the snow this model sees in late OCT. Who knows, maybe this winter LA Nina while actually bring more ocean effect snowfall this winter with the frontal boundaries and Alberta Clippers/Miller B type snowstorms will be the norm. Hey, the blizzard of 78 was a Miller B storm!! That was the best blizzard I've ever seen. Snowrider. |
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Oct 8 2010, 01:52 PM
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#11
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,690 Joined: 7-January 08 From: Mount Vernon, NY Member No.: 12,006 |
QUOTE(WeatherDudeNYC @ Oct 8 2010, 12:53 PM) blame the nose diving ULL This is one scenario that I see that is more likely than the "Fantasy GFS Scenario". -------------------- CURRENT IEM/OEM SET: Meelec M6(MSRP $49.99), VSonic GR06 (MSRP $49.99), Meelec CC51(MSRP $80), Beyerdynamic DTX 910 (MSRP $89.99), Future Sonics Atrio X (MSRP $99.99),Ultrasone HFI-450 (MSRP $119.99), JVC HA-FXT90 (MSRP $135.00)
SOURCE: Cowon J3 8GB DAP (WHT)+Fiio E6 Amp w/FilmPro 16GB MicroSD Card Class 10 To learn more about Sound Frequency: http://www.independentrecording.net/irn/re...ain_display.htm If you need help with choosing the right IEMs (In Ear Monitors) http://www.head-fi.org/forum/thread/478568...-ie-added-05-20 |
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Oct 8 2010, 01:57 PM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 23,859 Joined: 8-January 09 From: Ulster County Member No.: 16,816 |
12Z GFS has two storms tracking through the lakes, obviously this would end all talk of an east coast snow threat. However we are really far out so the track of the storm could change or there may not even be a storm at all. This time period does look worth tracking though for our first snow threat for parts of the northeast. Remember it has snowed the last two octobers in the NE.
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Oct 8 2010, 02:15 PM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,280 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
GFS Fantasy Land.
It's not impossible as it has happened in previous years, the last two especially, but considering this is almost near hour 384, I have no reason to take it seriously yet. I'd rather wait for a few days and see if it's still there. -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Oct 8 2010, 02:38 PM
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#14
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Rank: Whirlwind Group: Member Posts: 9 Joined: 19-September 10 From: Daytona Beach, FL Member No.: 23,700 |
I see a different setup. I know the GFS 18z is hinting towards a coastal storm development phasing with the incoming trough, but I highly doubt that. In fact, I feel more inclined to believe that the GFS 12z interpretation is a little more believable. Yes, the NAO is expected to go negative towards the end of the month. So, there is a good chance of a storm set-up across the eas coast. However, I sense that the low pressure will make a track through the Great Lakes as we begin to see a La Nina scenerio develop. I doubt that any measurable snow will fall if at all, due to the weak cold air aloft. I could see a rain/snow mixture. But I think a rain event is more prevelant. This just gives us a look at the overall pattern that is to come...
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Oct 8 2010, 02:43 PM
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#15
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 178 Joined: 8-February 08 From: Carlisle, PA Member No.: 13,514 |
So what time will it start at my house?
-------------------- "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it's hard to verify their authenticity."
~ Abraham Lincoln |
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Oct 9 2010, 05:25 AM
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,434 Joined: 13-January 10 From: Bronx,NY Member No.: 20,929 |
00z GFS shows the storm on the 23rd, but its a lakes cutter again
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-------------------- There is no such thing as boring weather.
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Oct 9 2010, 12:50 PM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,699 Joined: 6-February 08 From: LANCASTER PA Member No.: 13,459 |
QUOTE(WeatherDudeNYC @ Oct 9 2010, 06:25 AM) 00z GFS shows the storm on the 23rd, but its a lakes cutter again Don't be dissapointed. Its only October and most of the storms in this part of the year will be App runners or GLC's. Plus its to far out and once again its only OCTOBER! -------------------- -James
Severe T-storm Watches: Severe Warnings:1 Tornado Watches: Tornado Warnings: # of 100+ degrees days: |
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Oct 9 2010, 07:37 PM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,280 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
I haven't been here for a day, looks like I didn't miss much... 12z GFS shows a weak GLC, 18z GFS has a strong Nor'easter that brings mainly rain. I'm still waiting to find any signs on consistency with this time frame before taking it with more than a grain of salt.
-------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Oct 10 2010, 08:16 AM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,141 Joined: 12-March 10 Member No.: 22,300 |
... He used the s-word!
This is typically the time of year I see my first flakes in the sky, but October's low temperatures have been rather mild thus far and I can't tell if this trend will continue or not. Could make all the difference. For my region, I'd be surprised to get anything more than a trace. -------------------- Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches 2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches 2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches 2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches 2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches 2012-2013 snowfall so far: 78 inches Coldest temp of 2012-2013 winter so far: -8 F Winter 2012/2013: First frost: September 20 First freeze: October 8 First snowflakes in sky: November 8 First measurable snow: November 8 (2 inches) Total snowfall 2012-2013 season: October: None November: 2 inches December: 20 inches January: 12 inches February: 42 inches March: 2 inches |
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Oct 10 2010, 10:13 AM
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,434 Joined: 13-January 10 From: Bronx,NY Member No.: 20,929 |
06z GFS shows a soaker
But gets interesting
This post has been edited by WeatherDudeNYC: Oct 10 2010, 10:14 AM -------------------- There is no such thing as boring weather.
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